Hans’ Lecture notes - CAN SLIM presentation Feb. 6, 2013
Topic:"Trading psychology of the CAN SLIM investor - opportunities and common pitfalls"
Situation: You sit in front of your Television, CNBC is on and the market is hitting fresh all-time highs. You are only 50% invested. What do you do?
Some possibilities:
1. Hoping for a pull back so that you can buy in cheaper
2. Put the remaining 50% to work
3. Wait and see
4. Realize the gains on your existing holdings
There is an alternate possibility just as valid as the other four but perhaps more powerful: follow your rules.
Who has written rules?
Greg, Ramtin
My background, various approaches, econ degree, unlearn stuff, mistakes with own money, introduction to CAN SLIM.
why CAN SLIM is so powerful, “holy grail”.
Full time, at least two hours/day
Psycological aspects when trading/investing:
Pitfalls:
Loss aversion
Past baggage from childhood, school, college. My dad, oven company.
Pattern recognition
Investing too late
Selling winners too soon
Holding on too long
Not having a Plan B, not having exit strategy.
Opportunities:
Need to know at all times what to do
Parallels in life, good/bad. Behavior in trading, where else does it show up.
Need to be organized at all times. For example email inbox, task lists, stop orders.
Need to be like an olympic athlete: disciplined, focused, serious about your endeavors in all respects.
Rules
Not important what exactly your rules say but that you apply them consistently. If you don’t apply them consistently, ask yourself why: do the rules not make sense or are you not disciplined enough to follow them? Have the rules prevented you from taking advantage of a substantial gain? If rules don’t make sense in the current environment, does it make sense to change them? If so, change them over a weekend, not as an immediate reaction to a loss.
Your rules
1. In order to break the rules, you first have to manage them 100%.
Purpose:
1. Minimize losses
2. Minimize your time involved in executing your trades and watching the market
3. Eliminate second guessing, always know what to do in any given situation
Trading rules need to be simple, easy to follow and omnipresent.
Check list for the CAN SLIM investor:
1. Do I enjoy investing via the CAN SLIM method? Does it suit my personality?
2. Am I consistently educating myself in the CAN SLIM principles?
3. Are there more effective investment systems/approaches to invest my funds, given my interests, time availability, overall assets, to invest my funds?
4. Read about other investment approaches, both for the stock market and other investment vehicles (say real estate).
5. Attend the CAN SLIM workshops on a regular basis.
6. Attend meetups, talk to other investors, CAN SLIM and otherwise.
7. Make sure your overall life is “in order”. Any unfinished business/conflict that needs attention? Are you spending enough time with spouse, kids, close friends? In the end, the most important thing is your relationships and time spent with your loved ones. Are you in balance: food in moderation and fresh, in tune with environment: office set up, taking walks, beeing at peace. All this contributes to trading success as you are more likely to follow rules when you are in balance from a biochemical point of view and psychological point of view. Do you follow too many activities, are you spread too thinly?
Too many things: clutter, too many relationships, too many memberships in various on and offline communities. Less information is more: price and volume conveys all the information you need to enter or exit a stock. Are you following the 80/20 rule in all aspects or your life?
8. Be in a constant “mood of wonder”, not just about trading but about all things around you. Ask questions, don’t make assumptions.
9. Throw your preconceived notions over board.
10. Don’t read any daily newspapers, financial or otherwise, don’t watch CNBC. Read books and The Economist.
Suggested reading list:
How to Make Money in Stocks by William O’Neil
The Black Swan by Nassim Nicolas Taleb
Fooled by Randomness by same author
Antifragile, Things that gain from Disorder by same author. Taleb has benefitted from the 2008 financial crisis and is now an advisor to the IMF.
Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. Best book that deals with trading psychology I have ever read.
Nudge by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein
The Power of Habit by Charles Duhigg
How to Make Money in Stocks by William O'Neil.
How to Trade in Stocks by Jesse Livermore. Jesse Livermore's trading style was a great influence on Willam O'Neil's trading.
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre. This is a partly fictional account of Jesse Livermore's live.
Blink by Malcolm Gladwell
Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell
Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell
Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely
The Upside of Irrationality by Dan Ariely
How to Make Money in Stocks Success Stories by Amy Smith
Progression of CAN SLIM investor from novice to pro:
1. Portfolio: 50% S&P 500 ETF (such as SPY), 50% in 10 year treasury
2. Same as #1, but $-cost average 1% 10-year Treasury into S&P 500
3. Go long S&P 500 with your entire portfolio, when mkt is in confirmed rally, sell when market in correction.
4. Use the market update watch list, go long stocks that break out, apply your trading rules
5. Create your own watch list
To dos, don’t does
Beware of “how to” books. They sometimes lack substance, nuances. Read books of authors that are “totally into” what they do/write about.
Be aware of conflict of interest: Is your financial advisor’s incentive the same as yours?
Beware of smoke and mirrors. In the end, all that counts is the portfolio value and how much agony (risk) and time it took to get there. In other words, your risk-adjusted return.