Greetings from the Project on Middle East Democracy! Last Week, Leaders in Washington Continued

Dear Friends,

Greetings from the Project on Middle East Democracy!
Last week, leaders in Washington continued to condemn the violence in Syria, chastised Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh for refusing again to step down and discussed the need to support the regional transitions. International financial institutions and G8 leaders pledged their support for the Arab Spring while analysts discussed the role of Saudi Arabia in countering democratic movements. Protests continued in Yemen and Morocco and demonstrations broke out in Egypt over Hosni Mubarak’s trial and the transition process. Crackdowns also continued in Syria and Bahrain. Look for next week to be dominated by the ongoing situation in Syria and the international community’s response.
For more detailed coverage of the debates surrounding U.S. foreign policy and the prospects for democracy in the Middle East, be sure to check out our blog, thePOMED Wire.
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The Weekly Wire

May 31, 2011

Legislation
Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry (D-MA), and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), the ranking Republican on the Armed Services Committee, introduced the non-binding resolution, S.RES. 194, which “[s]upports the aspirations of the Libyan people for political reform based on democratic and human rights.” The bill "[a]grees that the goal of U.S. policy in Libya is to achieve the departure from power of [Libyan leader] Muammar Qaddafi and his family so that a peaceful transition can begin.” It also calls for the President to submit to Congress “a description of U.S. policy objectives in Libya.” President Barack Obama voiced his support for the resolution following criticism that he was not abiding by the War Powers Act.
Committee Hearings
The House Committee on Foreign Affairs held a hearing entitled, “War Powers, United States Operation in Libya, and Related Legislation” on Wednesday (5/25). The Committee—chaired by Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) with ranking member Howard Berman (D-CA) in attendance—requested the testimony of Congressmen Justin Amash (R-MI), Christopher Gibson (R-NY), and Thomas Rooney (R-FL).
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a nomination hearing on Tuesday (5/24) for William J. Burns to become Deputy Secretary of State. The committee—chaired by Senator John Kerry (D-MA) with ranking member Richard Lugar (R-IN) in attendance—requested the testimony of Burns who currently serves as Undersecretary for Political Affairs.
From Washington

Libya: Secretary of StateHillaryClintonalso announced plans totravelto the U.A.E. on June 9 to meet with the Libyan Contact Group to discus the ongoing military engagement and other issues with NATO and international partners.

Funding to Support Regional Transitions:The World Bank announced up to $6 billion over the two years to support Egypt and Tunisia. The European Bank of Reconstruction and Development indicatedthat it would eventually be able to invest as much as €2.5 billion a year to support the Arab Spring. Secretary of State Hillary Clintonand Secretary of Treasury Timothy Geithner calledon fellow G8 ministers to support the democratic transitions and more inclusive economies in the region. G8 leaders announced the launch of the “Deauville Partnership” to support the transitions in the region pledging $20 billion for Egypt and Tunisia. The International Monetary Fund also announced it wouldlendabout $35 billion to oil-importing countries in the region.House Appropriations State and Foreign Operations subcommittee chairwoman Kay Granger (R-TX) and ranking member Nita Lowey (D-NY) expressed concerns over aid levels to Egypt and Palestine. Joseph Stiglitz highlightedthe importance of providing the economic support for Tunisia.
U.S.Officials Discuss Syria, Yemen and Libya:White House counterterrorism chief John O. Brennan said that the U.S. will consider “possible other steps” if Yemeni PresidentAli Abdullah Saleh refuses to step down. State Department spokesman Mark Toner expressedUS disappointment at Saleh‘s refusal to sign the transition agreement brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council. In joint remarks with British Foreign Secretary William Hague, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton demanded that the Assad regime to end the crackdown and begin “a process of credible and inclusive democratic change.” They both threatened increased pressure unilaterally and from multilateral organizations. Libya’s rebels accepted an invitation to open an office in the U.S. from Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman, who was in Libyavisiting the opposition.
Obama discusses democracy promotion in Poland: In a joint press conference with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, President Barack Obamareflected on the transitions facing the Middle East in light of discussions held with Polish politicians and democracy activists. “What’s required I think is, number one, understanding that you have to institutionalize this transformation. It’s not enough just to have the energy.” He cited democratization in Poland and conflict resolution in Northern Ireland as instances where “American participation, American facilitation of dialogue, our investment in civil society, our willingness to do business, our openness to ultimate membership in international institutions like NATO — all those things made a difference.”
Israeli PM Addresses Congress: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuaddressed a joint session of Congress, expressing support for the Arab Spring, reaffirming the U.S.-Israeli relationship and detailing his parameters for a peace deal with the Palestinians.
U.S. Response Following Arrest of Saudi Activist: Addressing the arrest of a Saudi activist Manal al-Sharif for defying a ban on female drivers, State Department spokesman Mark Tonerstated that the U.S. trusts the government of Saudi Arabia to “give careful considerations to these voices of its citizens as they speak about issues of concern.” He noted that Saudi Arabia was not mentioned in President Barack Obama‘s Mideast speech because Obama could address every issue in one speech.
McCain Outlines Strategic Objectives for the Middle East: Senator John McCain (R-AZ) stressed the importance of providing support to Egypt and Tunisia, solving the military conflict in Libya, working to isolate Syria, and urging military allies such as Bahrain to embrace reforms. He also statedthat he opposes the prosecution of former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, predicting that it will cause other despots to cling to power.
Regional Analysis:Larry Diamondoffered policy recommendations for the Arab Spring and discussed how the ruling military council in Egypt will prevent a genuine democratic transition. Ellen Borkwrotethat while it has been over three months since Egyptian President Hosni Mubarakwas ousted, Egypt remains a military dictatorship. Steve Coll discussedthe misplaced hopes in Bashar al-Assad as a reformer and his degradation as the protest movement has continued. M K Bhadrakumardecoded President Barack Obama’s address on the Arab spring, noting that the absence of Saudi Arabia and the rhetoric on Bahrain were two of the most important aspects of the speech. Vali NasrandNeil MacFarquharargued that Saudi Arabia is serving as a counter to the Arab Spring and called on the U.S. to be assertive in its policy towards the Gulf countries.

Also Worth Reading

The International Foundation for Electoral Systemsissued a report entitled, “Tunisia Voter Registration & Voter Confidence Assessment Survey” showing the results of public opinion polls conducted in March and April in Tunisia, leading up to the Constituent Assembly elections.The results show overwhelming support for upcoming elections and showed that 8 out of 10 Tunisians wanted more information on key electoral areas.
From the Middle East

Libya: Officers Defect as Italy Opens Benghazi Consulate:Eight Libyan army officers, including 5 generals, stated they represented 120 military officers whodefectedfrom the camp of LibyanMuammar Gadhafiin recent days. In Benghazi, Italian Prime MinisterFranco Frattiniannounced100 million euros in aid to the rebels as Italy opened a consulate there. He alsomet withAli al-Essawithe Foreign Minister of the National Transitional Council (NTC) andcalled on Libyan leaderMuammar Gadhafito step down.

Saudi Woman Arrested for Leading Right-to-Drive Campaign The Saudi government detainedManal al-Sharifon charges of disturbing public order for breaking a ban on women’s driving. The drives are part of a campaign to encourage women across Saudi Arabia to participate in a collective protestscheduled for June 17. Her campaign garnered a stiff reaction from a group of Saudi men who have organized a counter-campaign encouraging men to harass and beat any Saudi woman seen attempting to drive. Addressing the arrest, State Department spokesman Mark Toner stated that the U.S. trusts the Saudi government to “give careful considerations to these voices of its citizens as they speak about issues of concern.”
$4 Billion in Saudi Aid and Loans to Egypt: Hussein Tantawi, head of Egypt’s ruling military council, announced that Saudi Arabia has pledged $4 billion dollars in aid to Egypt. Al-Ahram reported that the package will include a $1 billion deposit at the Central Bank of Egypt and $500 million in bond purchases. Some analysts have argued that Saudi Arabia is using development incentives to promote its foreign policy interests versus those of the U.S., while others argued that the U.S. must shed some of the burden to the Gulf.
Egyptian Activists Arrested for Scheduled Protests: The Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) arrested four activists for handing out flyers over Friday’s demonstrations. The SCAF announced that it would not help secure the protests.Mamdouh Shahin, legal adviser to the SCAF called on Egyptians to respect the law on public protests, which requires citizens to obtain permission prior to staging any demonstration. The protests were over former PresidentHosni Mubarak‘s trial for his alleged role in the killing protesters and demands for greater involvement in the decision making process during the transition. The protests also demonstrated the internal struggles in the Muslim Brotherhood.
Violence in Abyei After NorthSudanSeizesTown: The Northern Sudanese military seized the disputed border town of Abyei with South Sudan’s independence weeks away. U.N. peacekeepers reported that gunmen began looting and engaging in gun battles throughout the town. Thousands of residents reportedly fled into South Sudan. The southern government accused the northern military forces of participating in the widespread looting.
Bahraini Journalists Detained; Convictions Upheld:Bahrani police detained two local reporters working for foreign news outlets. Mazen Mahdi, who works for the German news agency DPA, said he and a reporter for France24 were called in for questioning on Sunday. Freedom House condemned a Bahraini appeals court decision to upholdthe conviction of Ali Abdullah Hassan Alsingaceand Abdul Aziz Abdul Redha Ibrahim Hussein, who were charged with killing two police officers during protests.
Fighting Erupts Between Saleh Forces and Tribal Fighters in Yemen:Gun battleseruptedin Sana’a between Yemen’s most powerful tribe led by al-Ahmar and President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s security forces, following Saleh’s refusal to step down. 70 people have reportedly been killed. Saleh has since ordered al-Ahmar’s arrest and said that he would sign a Gulf Cooperation Council-brokered deal, although a Saleh spokesman later denied this. The U.S.ordered all non-essential embassy staff and family members to evacuate the country. 20 were feared dead in Taiz following a government raid on a protest camp, an act which the U.S. Embassy condemnded. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reiterated U.S. support for Saleh’s departure from power.Blake Hounshellhighlightedthe power brokers involved in the current unrest and who could spell out the future if Yemen divulges into civil war.
Jordanian Judge Acquits Journalists, Declares Law ‘Unconstitutional’:Judge Nasser Salamatof the Amman Criminal Court acquitted Mwaffaq Mahadinand Sufyan Talof charges of harming Jordan’s relations with another country. Salamat also declared that Article 118 of the Jordanian Penal Code, under which the journalists were charged, unconstitutional.The two men were ordered to spend 15 days behind bars in February.
Escalation in Regime Response to Moroccan Protests: Representatives of the February 20th protest movement in Morocco say that about 60 activists were injured in Rabat, Casablanca, Agadir and Tangier during protests. Officials claim that about 20 demonstrators and police officers in all were injured. The beatings and rapid dispersal of protesters mark an escalation in regime violence. The Los Angeles Times observed that there is a radicalization of the protesters’ demands and the regime’s response.
Tunisia’s Constituent Assembly Elections Delayed:Electoral Commission president Kamel Jandoubicited technical and logistical reasons for the delay from July 24 to October 16. Tunisian opposition officials expressed fear that the delay may lead to the interim government reneging on its commitment to Tunisia’s democratic transition.Issander El Amrani dismissed the political reasons for delaying elections in Tunisia and Egypt and an Al Jazeera blogger warned that voter turnout would be low if held according to the original schedule.
Revolution’s Death Toll Higher Than Thought:Following his first trip to Tunisia since the revolution, UN Special Rapporteur on Torture Juan Mendezreported 300 Tunisians died and 700 were injured during the unrest. The number is significantly higher than original estimates.Tunisian rights activist Radhia Nasraouiclaimed that torture and abuse carried out during the last weeks of the old regime continue under the interim government. The head of Tunisia’s investigations committee said his group’s period of focus extends beyond the establishment of the interim government.
Tensions in Iran, Elections in Turkey:Tensions continued to rise in Iran due to the ongoing dispute between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejadand Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei has reportedly asked a conservative lawmaker to begin assembling a caretaker Cabinet in case the president resigned or had to removed.

Ersin Kalaycıoğluanalyzed the potential outcomes of upcoming Turkish parliamentary elections and their possible political effects.
Europeans Submit Syria Draft Resolution to UN, Impose Sanctions:Britain, France, Germany and Portugalsubmitted a draft resolution to the United Nations Security Council, calling for Damascus to comply with a UN Human Rights Council inquiry and to launch an independent and credible investigation into the violence. The European Union imposed sanctions on Syrian PresidentBashar al-Assad. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moualemdenouncedthe EU sanctions saying that they would ultimately hurt European interests.