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Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Implementation in Papua New Guinea
Overview
May 2016
I. Introduction
The impact of climate change-related hazards in the Papua New Guinea (PNG) country has been increasing in intensity and frequency. Further impacts from climate change include the loss of food gardens due to extensive flooding (both in coastal and riverine areas) combined with extended periods of drought. The rising sea level is causing some of PNG‘s islands to be gradually submerged. Salt-water intrusion is affecting groundwater particularly in the islands and in coastal areas, threatening domestic water supplies and agriculture. With the onset and multitude of climate change impacts, the country‘s economy, environment and people are becoming more vulnerable and are at risk of not meeting basic human development needs. By threatening food supplies, livelihoods, and human security, climate change presents major risks to the fulfillment of PNG’s development plans and achievement of its goals.
Flooding in the coastal areas is one of the most important climate change related hazards in the North Coast and the Islands Region as settlements are usually located in the coasts, particularly the provincial capitals of East Sepik (Wewak), Madang (Madang), Morobe (Lae), and West New Britain (Kimbe). Similarly, in the hinterland areas, climate change-related inland flooding is the most pressing hazard with the largest potential for widespread damage. Droughts and floods associated with El Nino / La Niña events and PNG’s decadal climate variability are likely to be more frequent and persistent. Sea levels are already rising since 1980s and considerable high to majority of the ocean regions. The impacts of these climate events will exacerbate already stressed marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments such as forestry, land use and communities.
To enable PNG to build its resilience to this increasing vulnerability, an integrated and holistic approach that considers the complete cycle of interlinked causes and effects, within the context of risk management across all sectors, is vital. Papua New Guinea has benefited from increasing investment in climate services over recent years, with several donors and development partners working with the Meteorological Agency and other government partners to improve the availability and use of climate services for key sectors in the country.
Papua New Guinea is one of the six countries that were chosen by the Partners Advisory Committee of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to be a priority country for implementation of the GFCS over the next few years. This document provides a brief overview of current and planned efforts to improve the provision of climate services in Papua New Guinea. Learning from practical experience in Papua New Guinea in projects implemented by partners is being captured and used to inform interventions being designed and implemented in other countries. [An inventory of the major projects that are being implemented in Papua New Guinea is attached as Annex 8b.]
Institutional context:
PNG has also developed policies addressing specific climate risks and needs, such as the Framework for the National Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan, the Climate-Compatible Development Strategy, the Interim Action Plan for Climate-Compatible Development, and the current (2014) National Climate-Compatible Development Management Policy (NCCDMP), which is in the early stages of implementation.
In addition, PNG has developed policies that are complementary to climate change initiatives, such as the Environment Act 2000, the draft National Sustainable Land Use Policy, the National Urbanization Policy, the National Forestry Policy, the National Agriculture Policy, the National Transport Policy, the National Energy Policy, the National Infrastructure Policy, the National Health Policy, the National Disaster Risk Management Policy, the Disaster Mitigation Policy and Disaster Risk Reduction and Disaster Management Framework for Action 2005-2015. PNG presented its Second National Communication to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change in 2014; the same year the NCCDMP was published. Sector-specific policies that would enable the full implementation of the NCCDMP, however, are still lacking, as existing sector policies need to more fully integrate and mainstream climate change into their policies, plans and budgets.
II. Overview of needs and capacities assessments
In 2014 a “mini-diagnostic” was undertaken to assess the National Weather Service. It was found that observation and forecast quality have suffered, whereas many users do not receive or do not trust NWS services. International standards from the Convention on International Civil Aviation – Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation are not being met. Reasons behind this include insufficient staff numbers—many of whom need more training; decaying facilities with outdated technology, broken or poorly calibrated instruments; poor service delivery mechanisms causing poor client relationships; and low morale.
The findings of the diagnostic recommended that the NWS be “rebuilt”—that its corporate, computing, client relations, project and quality management structures be particularly strengthened, and that cost recovery for aeronautical meteorological service be implemented to support a sustainable NWS satisfying the requirements of the aviation community. Some specific recommendations included:
· That the NWS remain in the Department of Transport
· NWS should implement aviation cost recovery as per ICAO and WMO guidelines.
· PNG government should consider options for providing interim project funding and increasing the current appropriated funding of the NWS to restore its operation and provide the expected range of services.
· Develop and implement a strategic plan for the NWS, consistent with relevant national and international strategic plans
· Establish an Aviation Meteorological Authority within CASA.
· Negotiate the sustaining and incorporation of major 3rd party networks into a larger network available to all people of Papua New Guinea. Ensure all observations used for aviation are audited for compliance against ICAO and WMO standards. (For example, agreements should be reached around the sharing and ongoing quality management of the data from the AWS networks operated by PNG Air Services Ltd and the University of Papua New Guinea, particularly where the data is used in the supply of meteorological information for international air navigation and would therefore be subject to conformance with ICAO standards and recommended practices, and regional air navigation agreements, and to have their data available, together with NWS observations, forecasts and warnings, on a newly established NWS web site.)
· Manage restoration and modernization projects under an appropriate project management framework.
· Department of Transport facilitate an agreement with the Department of Mineral Policy and Geohazards Management as to how volcanic monitoring for aviation purposes is to be sustainably provided, consistent with ICAO requirements, and noting that cost recovery for the aviation part of the volcanic monitoring service is allowed by ICAO SARPs
· Formally consult the Bureau of Meteorology to consider, and cost as necessary: establishing a long-term bilateral partnership between NWS and the Bureau, incorporating development and implementation of suitable analysis, numerical prediction and warning coordination arrangements designed to empower NWS staff to produce improved forecast and warning products.
In 2015, RIMES undertook an assessment of hydro-met / climate priority needs. Low capacity or no capacity was found across the board to undertake the priority needs, including for early warning systems (EWS) for floods, landslides, mudflows; seasonal forecasting (including for El Niño/ La Niña) and contingency planning; water budget planning; alternate energy options; and bushfire logistics.
In 2015 UNDP commissioned a capacity assessment on climate change adaption to understand the current legislations and policies on climate change adaptation in Papua New Guinea, as well as national structures to operationalize and implement climate change policies and programmes. Under the initiative capacity assessment was conducted for key government agencies and institutions at National, provincial, district and local level governments on planning, formulation, management, implementation and monitoring and evaluation of climate change adaptation initiatives/programmes/projects, including NGOs and private. The assessment recommented a capacity development (CD) programme for climate change adaptation based on the emerging priority capacity development needs as identified from the capacity assessment. The major findings of the assessment with regard to climate services related issues are as follows;
A functional early warning system requires first the raw data relevant to specific climate risks, and then using this information, government staff and/or other trained persons can: 1. Conduct risk analysis; 2. Perform monitoring and warning (preferably with multiple or redundant systems); 3. Maintain and use means for dissemination and communication (including cell, radio, TV, newspaper, and also maps/charts, drums or other signals and signage for communities); and 4. Appropriate response capability (see related sections on NDC).
The PNG National Weather Service is responsible for weather and climate risk data collection and analysis for forecasting. However the NWS has indicated severe limitations in terms of necessary equipment, logistical support and staff for maintenance, as well as a lack of proper information technology, communications and dissemination systems, and (trained) human resources to produce reliable and consistent data, let alone generate timely and useful analyses for sectoral, geographic (provincial, district), and LLG or community level planning and decision-making. Interview findings are consistent with the average of the four questionnaire topics directly related to the NWS, which is .38—well below an indication of some capacities being sufficiently met.
Therefore, the capacity development activities in this plan cut across these four areas, but this set of activities focuses on needs that will not be met by current and expected new areas of work on DRM and EWS. As the plans for these areas of activities are currently under development by UNDP, the budget, activities and timeframe herein will need to be determined and then adjusted to ensure this complementarity.
Under Vision 2050, PNG has a goal of 89 met stations for the entire country by 2030 (there are currently 14 nationally), and a goal of 20 stations under the Adaptation Fund. The proposed goal under this set of activities would be to have at least one functional meteorological station in each of the five pilot provinces in the next 12 to 18 months to set the precedent for the remaining stations. Once these iterative targets are met, NWS can move beyond (incomplete) 24 forecasts and towards development of an early warning system and producing medium term forecasts with agricultural, health, and other extension services planning.
Corresponding to the maintenance and upkeep of these met stations are qualified staff to manage the facilities and enable the download of raw data. The data will have a central collection point at the NWS where trained staff can analyze information, and the met station data will need to be combined with socio-economic and development analyses to understand vulnerabilities and gauge priority areas for future interventions. Outstanding gaps in information technology and communication will be overcome with a dedicated system, protocol, and MOUs where needed, for forecasts and risk analysis to be shared by the NWS with key partners. This will be coupled with timely regular reports to improve transparency and practice the principle of subsidiarity.
UNDP also conducted an assessment of the flood early warning system in PNG for five provinces. The main findings include the following,
· The density of meterological observation netwoerk is far lower than the WMO guidelines,
· Availabiliyt of meerological data is poor. There are limited data stations, and data is not avaible in real time.
· The hydrology monitoring network and availability of stream flow data is poor.
· The current meteoroloigcal forecasting is poor
· Ability to generate flood warning and warning dissemination is poor.
III. Major climate services-related strategies and plans in the country
The PNG priorities and needs in the area of climate change, variability and extreme events are reflected in PNG’s Vision 2050 Plan (Pillar 5), OCCD, NDC, Ministry for Transport, Responsible Sustainable Development Strategy (DNPM), PNG Forestry Authority, Department of Petroleum and Energy and the Road to Bali - PNG Perspectives broad framework (2007), and PNG National Health Climate Change Plan (2011 - 2020). These are also captured in the country’s first and second national communications reports (2000, 2012) and Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC, 2015), outcomes of the UNFCCC Conferences of the Parties and the outcomes of other related international meetings.
There are plans to develop a national climate change policy and laws for Papua New Guinean that will provide guidance to PNG to develop and integrate its policy(s) with it, hence the development of this PNG Action Plan. This plan will address 4 thematic areas of disaster risk reduction and climate change, agriculture and food security, health, water, energy media, and civil society from adverse impacts of climate change and variability for Papua New Guinea. PNG Government is committed through a number of important international multilateral agreements, which includes United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), UN Biodiversity Convention and UN Desertification Convention to impact its national, regional and global forums.
At the provincial and community level, all the members of PNG are also taking action to address the 4 main GFCS priorities of climate services through the national Mid-Term Development Strategies (MTDS), Disaster and Mitigation strategies as well as in national budgetary and planning processes.
With regard to climate change adaptation, the Adaptation and Projects Division under the Office of Climate Change and Development is primarily responsible for the formulation of adaptation policies, plans and budgets as well as identifying and coordinating programs and projects. The Division aims to play a strong coordinating role amongst all sectors to respond, build resilience and mainstream climate change adaptation into core development planning processes. The year 2014 was no exception as the division achieved some of its goals and objectives through the various activities under its 9 (nine) thematic areas namely:
1) Coastal Flooding and Sea-level Rise
2) Inland Flooding
3) Food Insecurity
4) Cities and Climate Change
5) Climate Induced Migration
6) Damage to Coral Reefs
7) Malaria and Vector Borne Diseases
8) Water and Sanitation
9) Landslides
Through a hazard based approach 6 thematic areas were identified originally and very recently in 2012 three additional thematic areas (3) were added. Within the 9 thematic areas, those in bold (above) were prioritized as those areas requiring immediate attention. Thematic Area 4-6 has had some work undertaken to address them in 2014. Little or no work was undertaken in thematic areas 7-9. This prioritization derives its mandate from the 2010 Interim Action Plan for Climate Compatible Development, which has now been superseded by the National Climate Change Policy 2014.