Illinois Job Index

Release
11/29/2015 / Data
Jan 1990 / Oct2015 / Issue
2015.11 /

ForOctober2015Illinois Job Index, the nation,RMWand Illinois all had positive job growth.

The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.

 / Nov
2015
Positive / Sep2015–Oct2015 / Last 12 months / Oct2015
Total non-farm employment / Growth Rate % / Number of Jobs / Growth Rate% / Number of Jobs / Shadow U.R.*
Nation / 0.19 / 271,000 / 2.01 / 2,814,000 / 11.03%
RMW / 0.30 / 59,400 / 1.61 / 317,800 / 11.10%
Illinois / 0.24 / 14,100 / 0.68 / 40,300 / 10.22%

*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.

Talking Points
Illinois
Notes /
  • Illinoisgained14,100 jobs in October2015, compared with a 3,000job loss inSeptember2015. Compared to October 2014, Illinois has added 40,300 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of labor market, showed anincrease of2,000 jobs per month.
  • The Nation added 271,000jobs at a rate of 0.19%, compared with a 137,000jobgain in September2015. The three-month moving average was up by 187,000 jobs per month.
  • The RMW added59,400 jobs inOctoberafter a43,000 jobloss in September2015. The three-month moving average was up by17,000 jobs per month.
  • Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has positive job gains 50 times and negative job changes 43 times. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 60,700 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
  • Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 – Construction, Manufacturing, Financial Activities and Information.
  • Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has added 342,300 new jobs.
  • By October2015 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities and Information.
  • The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 10.22%, 11.10% and 11.03%, compared to official unemployment rates of 5.4%, 4.5% and 5.0%.
  • ThroughOctober2015, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January 1990 stood at 12.51%, 17.11%, and 30.70%, respectively.

Nation
Notes /
  • Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 271,000 jobs. Sectors such asTrade, transportation & utilities,Professional & business servicesandEducation & healthhad major job growth.
  • The nation has recovered from the recent recession andadded4,304,000additional jobs since the last employment peak in December 2007. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their respective peaks in 2000.
  • The nation’s annual average growth rates from 2007 to 2015 were 0.07%, -0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%, 0.13%, 0.14%, 0.14%, 0.19% and 0.15%respectively.

Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
October2015
Number of Jobs / Current
Index to Jan 1990 / Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Pervious Peak
Nation / 142,654,000 / 130.70 / 126.57 (Dec-2007) / 33,509,000 / 4,304,000
RMW / 20,015,200 / 117.11 / 119.44 (Jun-2000) / 2,924,600 / -383,800
Illinois / 5,927,200 / 112.51 / 115.08 (Nov-2000) / 658,900 / -129,800
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – October2015
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth RatesNovember2014 –October2015

Barometer of Job Recovery

* The figure548,100 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point,Dec-2009 is472,100. Adding 76,100, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 548,100.

**The figure 27,500 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.

*** The figure 342,300 represents the jobs recoveredfrom December 2009 throughOctober2015.

Employment Growth Rateby Sector:

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector,September 2015 – October2015
Sector notes /
  • Illinois posted positivechange inOctober2015 byadding14,100jobs. Five out of ten sectors recorded netgains. Compared to September 2015, Leisure & hospitality(-0.46% to 0.63%) hada major performance gain, whileInformation(0.51% to -0.31%) had a major performance loss. Education & health(0.10% to 0.88%),Financial Activities(-0.57% to -0.05%), Trade, transportation & utilities (-0.56% to 0.15%)and Construction (0.10% to 0.81%)also experienced performance gains, whileGovernment (0.25% to 0.14%), Other Services (0.92% to 0.59%), Manufacturing (-0.26% to -0.33%) and Professional & business services(0.42% to -0.12%)experienced net losses in performances.
  • InOctoberat the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
  • Trade, transportation & utilities:51,000 (0.19%)
  • Professional & business services: 78,000 (0.39%)
  • Education & health:57,000 (0.26%)
  • The onlysector that lost jobsat the national level in October was:
  • Information: -1,000 (-0.04%)
  • For Illinois, themajorjob-gain sectors inOctoberwere:
  • Leisure & hospitality:3,500 (0.63%)
  • Education & health:7,900(0.88%)
  • Trade, transportation & utilities: 1,800 (0.15%)
  • The top-three sectors that lost jobs in Octoberfor Illinois were:
  • Information: -300 (-0.31%)
  • Professional & business services: -1,100 (-0.12%)
  • Manufacturing: -1,900 (-0.33%)
  • For Illinois, four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment levels, Manufacturing has shed 355,400jobs, Construction is down 19,300jobs,Information down 32,600jobs and Financial activities has 4,200 fewer jobs.

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 –October2015
Illinois / RMW / Nation
vs. RMW / vs. / Number of Jobs / Rate % / Rate / Rate
Nation / % / %
Construction / - / - / -19,300 / -8.38 / 10.31 / 18.66
Manufacturing / - / - / -355,400 / -38.53 / -23.42 / -30.79
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / - / - / 33,300 / 2.90 / 7.31 / 18.98
Information / - / - / -32,600 / -25.02 / -17.51 / 4.87
Financial activities / - / - / -4,200 / -1.13 / 17.79 / 23.91
Professional & business services / - / - / 366,100 / 64.00 / 75.01 / 84.96
Education & health / - / - / 377,400 / 71.33 / 74.10 / 106.31
Leisure & hospitality / + / - / 179,100 / 46.65 / 36.73 / 64.51
Other Services / + / - / 48,600 / 23.64 / 22.22 / 33.97
Government / - / - / 75,500 / 10.00 / 10.03 / 21.14
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –October2015
Job Changes in Recession Period* / Job Changes in Jan 2010-Oct2015 / Recovery Rate / Forecasted Job Changes Jan 2010-October2016 / Forecasted Recovery Rate
Construction / -63,800 / 7,200 / 11.29% / 13,700 / 21.47%
Manufacturing / -114,600 / 12,100 / 10.56% / -2,100 / -1.83%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / -97,700 / 61,000 / 62.44% / 58,900 / 60.29%
Information / -11,300 / -6,700 / -59.29% / -7,800 / -69.03%
Financial activities / -33,000 / 3,700 / 11.21% / 5,800 / 17.58%
Professional & business services / -92,200 / 156,700 / 169.96% / 167,100 / 181.24%
Education & health / 32,600 / 84,600 / - / 103,000 / -
Leisure & hospitality / -22,300 / 51,100 / 229.15% / 61,300 / 274.89%
Other services / -5,900 / -1,800 / -30.51% / 300 / 5.08%
Government / 6,000 / -25,900 / - / -23,700 / -

*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009

Recovery by Sector /
  • During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government were the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth during the recession.
  • Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have recovered 11.29%, 10.56%, 62.44%, 11.21%, 169.96% and229.15%respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
  • By October2015, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
  • However, recovery rates for sectors such as Informationand Other Services are still negative, namely -59.29%and -30.51% respectively.
  • The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities and Information.

Construction / Sep 2015- Oct 2015 / Sep 2015- Oct 2015
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.81 / 1,700
RMW / 1.20 / 9,000
Nation / 0.48 / 31,000
Manufacturing / Sep 2015- Oct 2015 / Sep 2015- Oct 2015
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.33 / -1,900
RMW / 0.27 / 7,500
Nation / 0 / 0
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / Sep 2015- Oct 2015 / Sep 2015- Oct 2015
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.15 / 1,800
RMW / -0.05 / -1,800
Nation / 0.19 / 51,000
Information / Sep 2015- Oct 2015 / Sep 2015- Oct 2015
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.31 / -300
RMW / -0.54 / -1,600
Nation / -0.04 / -1,000
Financial activities / Sep 2015- Oct 2015 / Sep 2015- Oct 2015
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.05 / -200
RMW / 0.38 / 4,000
Nation / 0.06 / 5,000
Professional & business services / Sep 2015- Oct 2015 / Sep 2015- Oct 2015
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.12 / -1,100
RMW / 0.63 / 15,600
Nation / 0.39 / 78,000
Education & health / Sep 2015- Oct 2015 / Sep 2015- Oct 2015
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.88 / 7,900
RMW / 0.79 / 24,800
Nation / 0.26 / 57,000
Leisure & hospitality / Sep 2015- Oct 2015 / Sep 2015- Oct 2015
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.63 / 3,500
RMW / 0.00 / 0
Nation / 0.27 / 41,000
Other Services / Sep 2015- Oct 2015 / Sep 2015- Oct 2015
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.59 / 1,500
RMW / 0.54 / 4,400
Nation / 0.18 / 10,000
Government / Sep 2015- Oct 2015 / Sep 2015- Oct 2015
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.14 / 1,200
RMW / -0.08 / -2,300
Nation / 0.01 / 3,000

ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at

Illinois Jobs Index / release11/29/2015 / / page1