Illinois Job Index

Release
012/30/2013 / Data
Jan 1990 / Nov2013 / Issue
2013.11 /

ForNovemberIllinois Job Index, ILRMW and the Nation all had positive job growth.

The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.

 / Dec
2013
Positive / Oct2013–Nov2013 / Last 12 months / Nov2013
Total non-farm employment / Growth Rate % / Number of Jobs / Growth Rate% / Number of Jobs / Shadow U.R.*
Nation / 0.15 / 203,000 / 1.71 / 2,293,000 / 12.10%
RMW / 0.14 / 27,800 / 1.27 / 243,400 / 13.50%
Illinois / 0.16 / 9,400 / 1.02 / 58,900 / 12.90%

*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.

Talking Points
Illinois
Notes /
  • Illinoisadded9,400 jobs in November2013, compared with a 17,200job gain in October2013. Compared to November2012, Illinois has added 58,900 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of labor market, was up by 12,300 jobs per month.
  • The Nation added 203,000jobs at a rate of 0.15%, compared with a 200,000 job gain in October2013. The three-month moving average was up by 192,700 jobs per month.
  • The RMW added27,800 jobs inNovemberat a rate of 0.14% after a36,200 job gain in October. The three-month moving average was up by13,400 jobs per month.
  • Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 33 times and positive job gains 37times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 150,900 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
  • Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 – Construction, Manufacturing, Financial Activities and Information.
  • Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has added 252,800 new jobs.
  • By November 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to its previous employment peak level. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other services.
  • The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 12.9%, 13.5% and 12.1%, compared to official unemployment rates of 8.7%, 7.1% and 7.0%.
  • ThroughNovember2013, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January 1990 stood at 10.79%, 13.26%, and 25.31%, respectively.

Nation
Notes /
  • Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 203,000 jobs. Sectors such as Construction, Manufacturing, Trade transportation & utility(TTU),Professional &business services and Education & health had major job growth.
  • Since the last employment peak in December 2007, the nation has lost 1,240,000 jobs. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their respective peaks in 2000.
  • The nation has average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 were 0.07%, -0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%, 0.13%, 0.14% and 0.14%, respectively.

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – Nov2013
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
November2013
Number of Jobs / Current
Index to Jan 1990 / Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Pervious Peak
Nation / 136,765,000 / 125.31 / 126.57 (Dec-2007) / 27,620,000 / -1,277,000
RMW / 19,356,800 / 113.26 / 119.44 (Jun-2000) / 2,266,200 / -1,042,200
Illinois / 5,837,000 / 110.79 / 115.08 (Nov-2000) / 568,700 / -220,000
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Dec2012 –Nov2013

Barometer of Job Recovery

* The figure706,900 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point,Dec-2009 is472,800. Adding 259,000, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 706,900.

**The figure 29,900 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.

*** The figure 252,800 represents the jobs recoveredfrom December 2009 throughNovember2013.

Employment Growth Rateby Sector:

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector,Oct2013 – Nov2013
Sector notes /
  • Illinois posted positivechange in November2013 byadding94,00jobs. Fiveout of ten sectors recorded netgains. Compared to October, Construction (-1.09% to 3.35%) hada major performance gain whileProfessional & business services(1.04% to -0.41%) had a major performance loss. Education & health (-0.28% to 0.39%), Financial activities (-0.40% to -0.32%) and Trade, transportation & utilities (0.15% to 0.57%)also experienced net performance gains, whileGovernment(0.16% to -0.11%),Other services (0.74% to 0.04%), Leisure & hospitality (1.02% to -0.07), Information (0.40% to 0.20%) and Manufacturing (0.51% to -0.16%)experienced net losses in performance.
  • InNovember at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
  • Manufacturing: 27,000 (0.23%)
  • Trade, transportation & utilities:60,000 (0.23%)
  • Construction:17,000 (0.29%)
  • Majorloss at the national level inNovemberwas recorded by:
  • Information: -1,000 (-0.04%)
  • Financial activities: -3,000 (-0.04%)
  • For Illinois, the major job-gain sectors inNovemberwere:
  • Education & health: 3,400 (0.39%)
  • Trade, transportation & utilities:6,700 (0.57%)
  • Construction: 6,100(3.35%)
  • Following are the major top three sectors that lost jobs in Novemberfor Illinois:
  • Manufacturing: -900 (-0.16%)
  • Financial activities:-1,200(-0.32%)
  • Professional & business services: -3,700 (-0.41%)
  • For Illinois, four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment levels, Manufacturing has shed 346,100jobs, Construction isdown -42,000jobs,Information down -30,400jobs and Financial activities has -2,000 fewer jobs.

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 –Nov2013
Illinois / RMW / Nation
vs. RMW / vs. / Number of Jobs / Rate % / Rate / Rate
Nation / % / %
Construction / - / - / -42,000 / -18.23 / 0.70 / 7.91
Manufacturing / - / - / -346,100 / -37.53 / -26.64 / -32.49
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / - / - / 31,600 / 2.75 / 5.03 / 15.29
Information / - / - / -30,400 / -23.33 / -19.36 / 0.52
Financial activities / - / - / -2,000 / -0.54 / 15.47 / 20.03
Professional & business services / - / - / 325,300 / 56.87 / 65.57 / 74.06
Education & health / - / - / 353,400 / 66.79 / 67.58 / 93.91
Leisure & hospitality / + / - / 161,300 / 42.02 / 31.58 / 53.75
Other Services / + / - / 53,300 / 25.92 / 17.97 / 30.28
Government / + / - / 72,400 / 9.59 / 9.56 / 20.42
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –November2013
Job Changes in Recession Period* / Job Changes in Jan 2010-Nov 2013 / Recovery Rate / Forecasted Job Changes Jan 2010-Nov 2014 / Forecasted Recovery Rate
Construction / -63,800 / -15,500 / -24.29% / -13,400 / -21.00%
Manufacturing / -114,500 / 21,300 / 18.60% / 30,300 / 26.46%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / -97,100 / 58,700 / 60.45% / 88,400 / 91.04%
Information / -11,300 / -4,500 / -39.82% / -2,800 / -24.78%
Financial activities / -32,700 / 5,600 / 17.13% / 10,500 / 32.11%
Professional & business services / -92,700 / 116,400 / 125.57% / 144,800 / 156.20%
Education & health / 32,200 / 61,000 / -- / 87,300 / --
Leisure & hospitality / -22,300 / 33,300 / 149.33% / 48,000 / 215.25%
Other services / -6,300 / 3,300 / 52.38% / 8,200 / 130.16%
Government / 5,600 / -28,600 / -- / -21,900 / --

*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009

Recovery by Sector /
  • During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth during the recession.
  • Since January 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other services have recovered 18.60%, 60.45%, 17.13%, 125.57%, 149.33% and 52.38% respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
  • By November 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to theirprevious employment peak level.
  • However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction and Information are still negative, namely, -24.29% and-39.82% respectively.
  • The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other services.

Construction / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013 / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 3.35 / 6,100
RMW / 0.94 / 6,500
Nation / 0.29 / 17,000
Manufacturing / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013 / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.16 / -900
RMW / 0.50 / 13,300
Nation / 0.23 / 27,000
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013 / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.57 / 6,700
RMW / 0.22 / 8,100
Nation / 0.23 / 60,000
Information / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013 / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.20 / 200
RMW / -0.52 / -1,500
Nation / -0.04 / -1,000
Financial activities / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013 / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.32 / -1,200
RMW / 0.17 / 1,800
Nation / -0.04 / -3,000
Professional & business services / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013 / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.41 / -3,700
RMW / 0.41 / 9,600
Nation / 0.19 / 35,000
Education & health / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013 / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.39 / 3,400
RMW / 0.33 / 10,000
Nation / 0.19 / 40,000
Leisure & hospitality / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013 / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.07 / -400
RMW / -0.91 / -17,400
Nation / 0.12 / 17,000
Other Services / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013 / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.04 / 100
RMW / 0.35 / 2,800
Nation / 0.07 / 4,000
Government / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013 / Oct 2013 – Nov 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.11 / -900
RMW / -0.20 / -5,800
Nation / 0.03 / 7,000

ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at

Illinois Jobs Index / release 12/30/2013 / / page 1