Illinois Job Index

Release
8/29/2016 / Data
Jan 1990 / July2016 / Issue
2016.8 /

ForJuly 2016Illinois Job Index, the nation, RMW, and Illinois allhad positive growth.

The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.

 / August
2016
Positive / June2016–July2016 / Last 12 months / July2016
Total non-farm employment / Growth Rate % / Number of Jobs / Growth Rate% / Number of Jobs / Shadow U.R.*
Nation / 0.18 / 255,000 / 1.72 / 2,447,000 / 10.34
RMW / 0.27 / 53,900 / 1.53 / 305,300 / 9.87
Illinois / 0.19 / 11,600 / 0.72 / 43,200 / 9.46

*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.

Talking Points
Illinois
Notes /
  • Illinoisadded11,600jobs in July2016, compared with arevised 3,500jobloss inJune2016 at a rate that was slightly faster than the US. Compared to July2015, Illinois has added43,200 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of labor market, showed anincreaseof2,200 jobs per month.
  • The Nation added 255,000jobs at a rate of 0.18%, compared with a revised 292,000job gain in June2016. The three-month moving average was up by 190,300 jobs per month.
  • The RMW added53,900 jobs inJulyafter arevised 37,000 job gain in June2016. The three-month moving average was up by17,800 jobs per month.
  • The state of Illinois now has 28,700 more jobs than in December 2007 when the recent recession started.
  • In 2016, Illinois had employment growth for five months and employment declines for three months.
  • Three sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 – Construction, Manufacturing, and Information.
  • Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has added 430,200 new jobs.
  • By July2016 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Information,Trade, transportation & utilities, Construction, and Manufacturing.
  • The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 9.46%, 9.59% and 10.34%, compared to official unemployment rates of 5.8%, 4.5% and 4.9%.
  • ThroughJuly 2016, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January 1990 stood at 14.15%, 18.55%, and 32.30%, respectively.

Nation
Notes /
  • Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 255,000 jobs. Sectors such asLeisure & hospitalities,GovernmentandProfessional & business serviceshad major job growth.
  • The nation has recovered from the recent recession andadded6,035,000additional jobs since the last employment peak in December 2007. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their respective peaks in 2000.
  • The nation’s annual average growth rates from 2007 to 2016were -0.01%, -0.24%, -0.38%, 0.09%, 0.13%, 0.11%,0.12%, 0.14%, 0.12% and 0.13%respectively.

Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
July2016
Number of Jobs / Current
Index to Jan 1990 / Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Pervious Peak
Nation / 144,448,000 / 132.30 / 126.57 (Dec-2007) / 35,264,000 / 6,035,000
RMW / 20,260,200 / 118.55 / 119.44 (Jun-2000) / 3,169,600 / -143,500
Illinois / 6,013,900 / 114.15 / 115.08 (Nov-2000) / 745,600 / -40,100
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – July2016
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth RatesAug2015 –July2016

Barometer of Job Recovery

* The figure688,600 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point,Dec-2009 is470,300. Adding218,300, the number of additional jobs that needed to be created after taking shadow unemployment rate into account, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 688,600.

**The figure 26,100 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.

*** The figure 430,200 represents the jobs recoveredfrom December 2009 throughJuly 2016.

Employment Growth Rateby Sector:

Total Non-Farm Employment growth rate by Sector,June2016 – July2016
Sector notes /
  • Illinois posted positivechange inJuly 2016 byadding11,600jobs. Sevenout of ten sectors recorded netgains. Compared to June 2016, Education & health(-0.84% to 0.60%) hada major performance gain, whileConstruction(-0.28% to -1.24%) had a major performance loss. Government(0.00% to 0.18%), Other Services (0.51% to 1.65%), Leisure & hospitality (-0.13% to 0.35%), Information(-0.31% to 0.20%), and Trade, transportation & utilities (-0.05% to 0.14%)also experienced performance gains, whileFinancial Activities(0.47% to -0.26%), Manufacturing (0.14% to -0.05%), Construction (-0.28% to -1.24%), and Professional & business services (0.27% to 0.05%) also experienced net losses in performance.
  • InJulyat the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
  • Leisure & hospitality:45,000 (0.29%)
  • Government: 38,000 (0.17%)
  • Professional & business services:70,000(0.05%)
  • No sectors lost jobs at the national level in July.
  • For Illinois, themajorjob-gain sectors inJulywere:
  • Leisure & hospitality:2,100 (0.35%)
  • Education & health:5,400(0.60%)
  • Other Services: 4,200 (1.65%)
  • The top-three sectors that lost jobs in Julyfor Illinois were:
  • Construction: -2,700 (-1.24%)
  • Financial Activities: -1,000 (-0.26%)
  • Manufacturing: -300 (-0.05%)
  • For Illinois, threesectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment levels, Manufacturing has shed 348,400jobs, Construction is down 16,100jobs andInformation has32,300fewer jobs.

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector June 1990 –July 2016
Illinois / RMW / Nation
vs. RMW / vs. / Number of Jobs / Rate % / Rate / Rate
Nation / % / %
Construction / - / - / -16,100 / -6.99 / 17.09 / 22.69
Manufacturing / - / - / -348,400 / -37.78 / -23.79 / -30.86
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / - / - / 61,800 / 5.38 / 8.50 / 20.31
Information / - / - / -32,300 / -24.79 / -19.34 / 4.23
Financial activities / - / - / 7,500 / 2.01 / 19.17 / 26.01
Professional & business services / - / - / 365,000 / 63.81 / 77.75 / 87.95
Education & health / - / - / 378,800 / 71.59 / 75.76 / 110.74
Leisure & hospitality / + / - / 211,700 / 55.14 / 39.24 / 67.34
Other Services / + / - / 53,800 / 26.17 / 25.07 / 34.83
Government / - / - / 73,500 / 9.73 / 11.22 / 22.18
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –July2016
Job Changes in Recession Period* / Job Changes in Jan 2010-July2016 / Recovery Rate / Forecasted Job Changes Jan 2010-July2017 / Forecasted Recovery Rate
Construction / -63,800 / 10,400 / 16.30% / 9,500 / 14.89%
Manufacturing / -114,600 / 19,100 / 16.67% / 16,700 / 14.57%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / -97,700 / 89,500 / 91.61% / 86,500 / 88.54%
Information / -11,300 / -6,400 / -56.64% / -7,700 / -68.14%
Financial activities / -32,600 / 7,200 / 22.09% / 16,400 / 50.31%
Professional & business services / -92,300 / 163,600 / 177.25% / 185,200 / 200.65%
Education & health / 33,800 / 87,400 / - / 99,400 / -
Leisure & hospitality / -22,300 / 83,700 / 375.34% / 92,300 / 413.90%
Other services / -5,900 / 3,400 / 57.63% / 4,400 / 74.58%
Government / 6,000 / -27,900 / - / -31,600 / -

*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009

Recovery by Sector /
  • During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government were the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth during the recession.
  • Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services,Leisure & hospitality, and Other services have recovered 16.30%, 16.67%, 91.61%, 22.09%, 177.25%,375.34%and 57.63% respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
  • By July 2016, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
  • However, the recovery rate for Informationis still negative, namely -56.64%.
  • The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector exceptInformation,Trade, transportation & utilities, Construction, and Manufacturing.

Construction / June 2016 - July 2016 / June 2016 - July 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -1.24 / -2,700
RMW / -0.79 / -6,400
Nation / 0.21 / 14,000
Manufacturing / June 2016 - July 2016 / June 2016 - July 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.05 / -300
RMW / 0.40 / 11,100
Nation / 0.07 / 9,000
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / June 2016 - July 2016 / June 2016 - July 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.14 / 1,700
RMW / 0.01 / 400
Nation / 0.11 / 29,000
Information / June 2016 - July 2016 / June 2016 - July 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.20 / 200
RMW / 0.28 / 800
Nation / 0.00 / 0
Financial activities / June 2016 - July 2016 / June 2016 - July 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.26 / -1,000
RMW / -0.10 / -1,100
Nation / 0.22 / 18,000
Professional & business services / June 2016 - July 2016 / June 2016 - July 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.05 / 500
RMW / 0.55 / 14,000
Nation / 0.35 / 70,000
Education & health / June 2016 - July 2016 / June 2016 - July 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.60 / 5,400
RMW / 0.19 / 6,100
Nation / 0.16 / 36,000
Leisure & hospitality / June 2016 - July 2016 / June 2016 - July 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.35 / 2,100
RMW / -0.04 / -800
Nation / 0.29 / 45,000
Other Services / June 2016 - July 2016 / June 2016 - July 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 1.65 / 4,200
RMW / 0.12 / 1,000
Nation / 0.05 / 3,000
Government / June 2016 - July 2016 / June 2016 - July 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.18 / 1,500
RMW / 1.01 / 29,100
Nation / 0.17 / 38,000

ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at

Illinois Jobs Index / release 8/29/2016 / / page 1