11/26/2007 ver. 1.0

GMAN505 Hybrid

Forecasting and Operations Management

Saint Mary’s College

Executive MBA Program (Moraga/Internet)

Course Outline: Winter 2008 Quarter

Course Title / Forecasting and Operations Management
Faculty Instructor / Dr. Juan P. Montermoso, CPIM, CIRM, CSCP
Contact Information / Tel: (408)-390-6475
Fax: (408)-732-4715
E-mail:
Class Meetings / Face-to-face: Saturdays, Jan. 12, 26; Feb. 9, 23; March 8, 22
e-class: Mondays weekly6-7.30 pm or 7.45-9.15 pm, Jan 14 thru Mar. 3 (except: Jan 21 class on Jan 22 and Feb 18 class on Feb 19)
Class Location / Moraga campus or Internet
Class Materials /

A. Class Textbook:

Matching Supply and Demand: An Introduction to Operations Management”by Gerard Cachon and Christian Terwiesch, McGraw-Hill Irwin, ISBN 0-07-291899-3
B. Selected Readings:
- “Learning by the Case Method,” John Hammond, HarvardBusinessSchool Publishing, 9-376-241, April 2002
- “Chapter 13 – Forecasting” Reprint from Operations Management for Competitive Advantage by Chase, Jacobs, and Aquilino, pp. 2-49
- “The Lean Service Machine,” Harvard Business Review, October 2003, Reprint R0310J
- “Fixing Health Care from the Inside, Today,” Harvard Business Review, September 2005, Reprint R0509D
- “The Triple A Supply Chain, “ Harvard Business Review, October, 2004, Reprint R0410F
C. Selected Cases:See Course Outline which follows

General Information

Course Description

This course introduces you to concepts and techniques related to matching supply with demand in manufacturing and service operations. The first part of the course will deal with various forecasting methodologies, as tools for predicting demand. The focus will be on regression models and times series analysis. The second part of the course will attempt to make you conversant in the language of operations management, provide you with quantitative and qualitative tools to analyze basic operations issues, and allow you to see the role of operations management in the overall strategy of the firm. In this part we will cover topics in operations strategy, process and capacity analysis, inventory management, demand uncertainty, project management, and supply chain management.

Specific Learning Objectives

By the end of this course, participants should be able to:

  1. Understand both the key elements influencingoperations strategy and the various forecasting and operations modelingtools available to support execution of a chosen strategy
  2. Apply these strategies and tools in an integrative way across a range of business situations
  3. Communicate clearly and advocate effectively on operations processes and programs from a managerial perspective.

Course Approach

The course approach will employ a mix of lectures, readings, exercises, discussions, written assignments and cases with the following expectations. First, prior to each session, students should prepare the assigned chapters from the Cachon and Terwiesch text and other supplemental readings to gain a solid foundation for class discussions, exercises, and cases. Second, students are encouraged to work in teams on a weekly basis to help prepare for all assignments, especially for the cases. (Unless otherwise requested in the assignment, team agreement on recommendations for a case is notnormally expected or required.) Third, and most importantly, the core learning experience will be gained through careful preparation for and full participation in the assigned case. Students will be called upon to articulate their analyses. Ample opportunity will be given to contribute both in verbal and written formats.

Case Discussion/Class Participation

In a typical class session, one or more students will be asked to begin discussion of the case. If you have prepared the case in your teams, you should have no difficulty in handling such a leadoff request. Questions to guide your thinking about the cases will be provided via e-mail at least one week prior to the assigned session. During case discussions, you will help build a complete analysis of the case situation and address some of the problems and issues it presents. You will be asked to make decisions and recommendations, and will be expected to discuss the implementation of those recommendations.

NOTE: The cases are intended to present dilemmas as a manager encounters them, so it is important to deal with the cases as you find them. Please do not search for additional or more recent data.

Written Assignments

There are two major kinds of written assignments.

1. On some weeks, there will bea problem set assignment. These assignments are intended to strengthen and evaluate specific skills. They are provided as a way for you to assess whether you have learned specific material in the course. Your assignments can be done individually or in your teams.Only turn in one solution set per individual or team. To receive credit, teams/individual students MUST show their own work.

2. On other weeks, a case analysis and recommendation will be requested. Teams can meet to discuss the case. Some teams may be asked to prepare a slide outline or written analysis/ recommendations. At other times, each student must write up and turn in his or her analysis/action plan. (When the write-ups are individual, team agreement is not expected or required.)

Operations Management Simulation Game

A simulation game project will require participants to form into teams and manage an operation. Both performance in the game and the subsequent written analysis of the approach by the team will factor into the team grade for this project.

Evaluation of Participants

Students will be evaluated on the following criteria:

Oral Case Participation30% (based on case discussions & class participation)

Written Case Analyses (2)15% (one group and one individual submission)

Problem-solving Assignments15% (all team members receive the same team grade)

Team Simulation Game20%

Final Exam (Take-home)20%

Academic Honor Code

All enrolled students in the St. Mary’s Executive MBA program are required to abide by the following pledge:

“As a student member of an academic community based in mutual trust and responsibility, I pledge (1) to do my own work, at all times, without giving or receiving inappropriate aid; (2) to avoid behaviors that unfairly impede the academic progress of other members of my community; and (3) to take reasonable and responsible action in order to uphold my community’s academic integrity.”

What does this mean in practice? Foremost, it means that your work should be entirely original (except within the context of authorized collaborations). Receiving help from former students in the form of their notes, exams, or solutions to problems, cases and exams is cheating. The same goes for inappropriate use of Internet to plagiarize or copy material. When in doubt, check with me.The standard sanction for violations is failure in the course indicated by a grade of “XF.” For group projects, all members will be held equally accountable for the originality of the submissions of the group. (For further information, consult the Student/Faculty Handbook.)

The faculty does take this issue very seriously. Certainly, some are of the opinion that “those who cheat are only hurting themselves.” However, a major benefit of business school is developing a professional network, but such a network is useless if one comes to be known for dishonesty and laziness. And honest students are offended and possibly demotivated by the realization that dishonest students are being evaluated by the same standards. Were the St. Mary’s College MBA program to acquire a reputation for tolerating dishonesty, the degrees of all present and future alumni would be severely devalued. Therefore, I hope that students who learn of any instances of cheating will notify me immediately.

Course Outline

For this date: / We will cover: / Read and Prepare:
Saturday, Jan 12 AM / CASE: Pizza USA
(Group preparation time will be allotted in class)
-“Forecasting,” (Reprint pp. 2-49) from Chapter 13, Operations Management for Competitive Advantage
-Introduction (ch.1, Cachon)
-The Process View of the Organization (ch.2) / “Learning by the Case Method”
CASE: Pizza USA
“Forecasting,” Chapter 13
Cachon: Chapters 1,2
TryQ2.1 (Answer in book)
Monday, Jan 14
Problem Set 1 DUE / -Understanding the Supply Process (ch.3) / Cachon: Chapter 3
Try Q3.1 (Answer in book)
Problem Set 1
Tuesday, Jan 22 / CASE: Kristin’s Cookie Company (A)
-Batching and Other Flow Interruptions (ch. 5) / CASE: Kristin’s Cookies
Cachon: Chapter 5
Try Q5.1
Saturday, Jan 26
AM
Group Written Case Analysis DUE / CASE: National Cranberry Cooperative (Abridged)
-Estimating and Reducing Labor Costs(ch.4)
-Littlefield I simulation note distributed / CASE: National Cranberry
Cachon: Chapters 4
Try Q4.1
Monday, Jan 28 / -Variability and Its Impact(ch. 6) / Cachon: Chapter 6
Try Q6.1
Monday, Feb 4
Problem Set 2 DUE / -Quality Management and the Toyota Production System (ch.8) / Cachon: Chapter8
Problem Set2
Sat, Feb 9
PM / CASE: Toyota Motor Manufacturing, USA, Inc.
-Betting on Uncertain Demand (ch.9)
Littlefield I Simulation starts on Tue, Feb 12 / CASE: Toyota Motor
Cachon: Chapter 9
Try Q9.2
Monday, Feb 11 PM / Finish Cachon, Chapter 9 / HBR: Lean Service Machine
Tuesday, Feb 19 / CASE: Massachusetts GeneralHospital: CABG Surgery (A)
-Spear reading
Littlefield I Simulation ends on Tue, Feb 19 / CASE: CABG Surgery
Spear, “Fixing Health Care…”
Saturday, Feb 23
PM
Written Case Analysis Due / CASE: Boeing (A)
Littlefield I Group write-up DUE by Fri, Feb 22
-Discuss Littlefield Simulation I
-Littlefield II simulation note distributed / CASE: Boeing (A)
Monday, Feb 25 / -Revenue Management with Capacity Controls (ch.13)
Littlefield II Simulation starts on Tue, Feb 26 / Cachon: Chapter 13
Try Q13.1
Monday, Mar 3
Problem Set 3 DUE / -Supply Chain Coordination(ch.14)
-Problem Set 3
Littlefield II Simulation ends on Tue, Mar 4 / Cachon: Chapters 14
Try Q14.1
Problem Set 3
Saturday, Mar 8
AM / CASE: Nucleon
Littlefield IIGroup write-up DUE by Fri, Mar 7
-Discuss Littlefield Simulation II
FINAL EXAM WILL BE DISTRIBUTED AT THIS SESSION / CASE: Nucleon
Monday, Mar 10 / NO e-class session / HBR: The Triple A Supply Chain
Monday, Mar 17 / -NO e-class session
1-2 page write-up on Hau Lee article due via e-mail on Thursday, Mar 20. Bring 2 hard copies to class on Mar 22.
Saturday, Mar 22
AM
FINAL EXAM CASE ANALYSIS DUE / CASE: Final Exam case will be discussed
Final In-Class Review / Review all previously assigned chapters in the Cachon book and all readings and cases.

About the Instructor

Dr. Juan P. Montermoso is the founder and President of Montermoso Associates, a marketing and training consultancy. The services of Montermoso Associates, primarily focused on high tech organizations,include marketing strategy development and implementation, supply chain guidance, and management skill building.Dr. Montermoso offers over twenty-seven years of Hewlett-Packard management experience in sales and marketing for enterprise server systems, global channel marketing of personal computers and printers, and the business planning and incubation of e-business initiatives. Prior to that, he led innovation and change in Asia Pacific both as Vice President for Management Information Systems in Manilaand as an executive trainer for the SGV Group, an Accenture partner in Asia. As a business school professor in both Asia and California, he has taught at the Executive MBA level. He has also successfully prepared numerous San Francisco Bay Area professionals for certification exams in operations management.

Dr. Montermoso earned a Bachelor of Science in Engineering and Applied Science from YaleUniversity, a Master of Science in Computer Science from HarvardUniversity, and a Doctorate in Business Administration from the HarvardBusinessSchool. He has been honored as a Homecoming Scientist Awardee by the Philippine government and is currently certified in Production and Inventory Management

(CPIM), Integrated Resource Management (CIRM), and as a Supply Chain Professional (CSCP) by APICS, the professional association for operations management. In addition, Dr. Montermoso has published numerous papers on information systems management and Internet marketing applications and has presented at international meetings in the United States, Asia, and Latin America as well as at past APICS International Conferences.

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