Illinois Job Index

Release
09/30/2013 / Data
Jan 1990 / Aug2013 / Issue
2013.08 /

ForAugustIllinois Job Index, IL, RMW and the Nation all had positive job growth.

The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.

 / Sep
2013
Positive / Jul2013–Aug2013 / Last 12 months / Aug2013
Total non-farm employment / Growth Rate % / Number of Jobs / Growth Rate% / Number of Jobs / Shadow U.R.*
Nation / 0.12 / 169,000 / 1.65 / 2,206,000 / 12.0%
RMW / 0.09 / 17,400 / 1.27 / 242,500 / 14.7%
Illinois / 0.08 / 4,800 / 0.96 / 55,400 / 13.2%

*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.

Talking Points
Illinois
Notes /
  • Illinoisadded4,800 jobs in August2013, compared with a revised 7,500job gains in July2013. Compared to August2012, Illinois has added 55,400 jobs. The three-month moving average of jobs, a more stable measure of labor market, was up by 6,867 jobs per month.
  • The Nation added 169,000jobs at a rate of 0.12%, compared with a revised 104,000 job gainsin July2013. The three-month moving average of jobs was up by 148,300 jobs per month.
  • The RMW added17,400 jobs inAugustat a rate of 0.09% after a revised 24,000 job gains in July. The three-month moving average was up by26,900 jobs per month.
  • Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 33 times and positive job gains also 35times so far.The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 186,900 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
  • Three sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 – Construction, Information and Other services.
  • Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has added 216,800 new jobs.
  • By August 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to its previous employment peak level. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Financial activities, Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU), Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other services.
  • The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 13.2%, 14.7% and 12.0%, compared to official unemployment rates of 9.2%, 7.6% and 7.3%.
  • ThroughAugust2013, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January 1990 stood at 10.11%, 13.02%, and 24.73%, respectively.

Nation
Notes /
  • Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 169,000 jobs. Sectors such asManufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Professional & business services, Education & health and Leisure & hospitalityand Government had major job gains.
  • Since the last employment peak in December 2007, the nation has lost 1,909,000jobs. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their respective peaks in 2000.
  • The nation has average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 were 0.07%, -0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%, 0.13%, 0.14% and 0.13%, respectively.

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – Aug2013
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Aug2013
Number of Jobs / Current
Index to Jan 1990 / Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Pervious Peak
Nation / 136,133,000 / 124.73 / 126.57 (Dec-2007) / 26,988,000 / -1,909,000
RMW / 19,316,600 / 113.02 / 119.44 (Jun-2000) / 2,226,000 / -1,082,400
Illinois / 5,801,000 / 110.11 / 115.08 (Nov-2000) / 532,700 / -256,000
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Sep2012 –Aug2013

Barometer of Job Recovery

* The figure732,200 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, 2000-Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest point 2009-Dec is472,800. Adding 259,400, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is732,200.

**The figure 29,900 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.

*** The figure 216,800 represents the jobs recoveredfrom December 2009 throughAugust2013.

Employment Growth Rateby Sector:

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector Jul2013 – Aug2013
Sector notes /
  • Illinois posted Positive change in August2013 byadding4,800jobs. Fiveout of ten sectors recorded netgains. Compared to July, Education & health (-0.50% to 0.64%) hada major performance gain;Construction(1.02% to -2.17%) had a major performance loss.Manufacturing (-0.24% to -0.09%), Information (-1.29% to -0.30%), Leisure & hospitality(-0.28% to 0.65%)and Other Services (-0.32% to -0.04%) experienced net performance gain whileTrade, transportation & utilities (0.65% to 0.19%), Financial Activities (-0.03% to -0.24%), Professional & business services (0.91% to 0.03%) and Government (-0.05% to -0.13%) experienced net losses in performance.
  • InAugustat the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
  • Education & health: 43,000 (0.21%)
  • Leisure & hospitality:27,000 (0.19%)
  • Trade, transportation & utilities:64,000 (0.25%)
  • Major top twolosses at the national level in August were recorded by:
  • Information: -18,000(-0.67%)
  • Financial Activities: -5,000(-0.06%)
  • For Illinois, the major job-gain sectors inAugustwere:
  • Leisure & hospitality: 3,500 (0.65%)
  • Education & health: 5,600(0.64%)
  • Trade, transportation & utilities: 2,200(0.19%)
  • Following are the major top three sectors that lost jobs in Augustfor Illinois:
  • Construction: -4,100 (-2.17%)
  • Financial activities:-900(-0.24%)
  • Information: -300 (-0.30%)
  • For Illinois, three sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment levels, Manufacturing has -347,100fewer jobs, Construction are down -45,700jobs and Information down -31,400jobs.

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – Aug2013
Illinois / RMW / Nation
vs. RMW / vs. / Number of Jobs / Rate % / Rate / Rate
Nation / % / %
Construction / - / - / -45,700 / -19.84 / -0.39 / 6.93
Manufacturing / - / - / -347,100 / -37.63 / -27.32 / -32.78
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / - / - / 22,400 / 1.95 / 4.44 / 14.56
Information / - / - / -31,400 / -24.10 / -18.75 / 0.49
Financial activities / - / - / 300 / 0.08 / 15.27 / 20.00
Professional & business services / - / - / 319,300 / 55.82 / 64.93 / 72.65
Education & health / - / - / 354,300 / 66.96 / 67.25 / 93.09
Leisure & hospitality / + / - / 157,300 / 40.97 / 32.10 / 52.98
Other Services / + / - / 44,700 / 21.74 / 17.71 / 29.90
Government / - / - / 66,800 / 8.84 / 10.43 / 20.27
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –Aug2013
Job Changes in Recession Period* / Job Changes in Jan 2010-Aug 2013 / Recovery Rate / Forecasted Job Changes Jan 2010-Aug 2014 / Forecasted Recovery Rate
Construction / -63,800 / -19,200 / -30.09% / -21,600 / -33.86%
Manufacturing / -114,500 / 20,300 / 17.73% / 8,300 / 7.25%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / -97,100 / 49,500 / 50.98% / 67,900 / 69.93%
Information / -11,300 / -5,500 / -48.67% / -6,600 / -58.41%
Financial activities / -32,700 / 7,900 / 24.16% / 13,200 / 40.37%
Professional & business services / -92,700 / 110,400 / 119.09% / 143,100 / 154.37%
Education & health / 32,200 / 61,900 / -- / 80,600 / --
Leisure & hospitality / -22,300 / 29,300 / 131.39% / 38,900 / 174.44%
Other services / -6,300 / -5,300 / -84.13% / -5,000 / -79.37%
Government / 5,600 / -34,200 / -- / -35,200 / --

*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009

Recovery by Sector /
  • During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth during the recession.
  • Since January 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have recovered 17.73%, 50.98%, 24.16%, 119.09%, 131.39%, respectively, from the job lost during the recession.
  • By August 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to its previous employment peak level.
  • However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction, Information and Other services are still negative, namely, -30.09%, -48.67% and -84.13% respectively.
  • The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality.
  • Sectors such as Construction and Information will continue to lose jobs with faster rates.

Construction / Jul2013 – Aug2013 / Jul2013 – Aug2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -2.17 / -4,100
RMW / 0.44 / 3,000
Nation / 0.00 / 0
Manufacturing / Jul2013 – Aug2013 / Jul2013 – Aug2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.09 / -500
RMW / 0.11 / 3,000
Nation / 0.12 / 14,000
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / Jul2013 – Aug2013 / Jul2013 – Aug2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.19 / 2,200
RMW / -0.01 / -5,000
Nation / 0.25 / 64,000
Information / Jul2013 – Aug2013 / Jul2013 – Aug2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.3 / -300
RMW / -0.34 / -1,000
Nation / -0.67 / -18,000
Financial activities / Jul2013 – Aug2013 / Jul2013 – Aug2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.24 / -900
RMW / -0.24 / -2,500
Nation / -0.06 / -5,000
Professional & business services / Jul2013 – Aug2013 / Jul2013 – Aug2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.03 / 300
RMW / 0.20 / 4,800
Nation / 0.12 / 23,000
Education & health / Jul2013 – Aug2013 / Jul2013 – Aug2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.64 / 5,600
RMW / 0.01 / 300
Nation / 0.21 / 43,000
Leisure & hospitality / Jul2013 – Aug2013 / Jul2013 – Aug2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.65 / 3,500
RMW / -0.30 / -5,800
Nation / 0.19 / 27,000
Other Services / Jul2013 – Aug2013 / Jul2013 – Aug2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.04 / -100
RMW / -0.18 / -1,400
Nation / 0.00 / 0
Government / Jul2013 – Aug2013 / Jul2013 – Aug2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.13 / -1,100
RMW / 0.6 / 17,400
Nation / 0.08 / 17,000

ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at

Illinois Jobs Index / release 09/30/2013 / / page 1