6th April 2018
First quarter protests for 2018 show consistent trends with previous years– for immediate release
Background: Municipal IQ, a specialised local government data and intelligence organisationcollects data on service delivery protests staged againstmunicipalities (see methodology note) on its Municipal Hotspots Monitor; in order to quantify and better understand the ongoing nature and trends behind such events.
Key trends in 2018 (so far):Figure 1 (below) shows service delivery protests up to the end of March (first quarter) 2018.
Karen Heese, Economist at Municipal IQ notes “The first quarter of 2018 recorded a busy, if not unprecedented, service delivery protest tally, spurred on by an eventful March. Perhaps most significant, although not a direct service delivery protest, was a wave of land invasions in metros which will likely become a major policing priority and increase the jostle and demands of protesters to beheard over each other”.
Figure 1: Major service delivery protests, by year (2004 –31st March 2018)
[Source: Municipal IQ Municipal Hotspots Monitor]
Heese also notes “Gauteng has receded somewhat as a site of protests, but remains narrowly ahead of the Eastern Cape which is the second most protest-prone province this year” (see Figure 2).
Other provinces affected by protests this year include Kwa-Zulu-Natal and Limpopo where access to basic services tend to drive protest grievances.
Figure 2: Service delivery protests by province 2018 (as of 31st March 2018)
[Source: Municipal IQ Municipal Hotspots Monitor]
Analysis:While protests have not receded in the wake of the leadership transition within the ANC, they have also not shown any evidence of a falling-out between factions which fuelled protests in the past.
Kevin Allan, M.D. of Municipal IQ argues that: “It remains to be seen how protests in 2018 will continue to develop, but it is almost a certainty that service delivery protests will remain a popular and common avenue for airing grievances across the country.”
Methodology: Municipal IQ’s Hotspots Monitor databases major protests staged by community members (who can be identified as living in a particular ward) against a municipality, as recorded by the media (or other public domain sources such as SAPS press releases). Such protestors raise issues that are the responsibility or perceived responsibility of local government (such as councillor accountability, the quality and pace of basic service delivery, and in metro areas, housing). These protests may be violent or peaceful, but there is a clear dissatisfaction with the management of a municipality. Not included are issues falling outside of local government’s service delivery mandate such as demarcation, industrial relation disputes or clear party political issues (including candidate lists). Where protests are sustained over several days or weeks, these are recorded as a single entry, with qualitative details updated on the database.Please note that protests that are primarily against councillor candidates (a political issue), demarcation and industrial relations are not included on the Municipal Hotspots Monitor.
Ends.
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