The Dangers of Global Warmingby Environmental Defense
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The Dangers of Global Warming
Many natural cycles we depend on for our health and livelihood are changing.
More heat can cause serious health problems, for example in spreading diseases and asthma is increasing from air pollution. Extreme Weather is seen in hurricanes and heat waves.
Deadly Heat Waves More Likely (I put all subtitls in bold so you can identify them – delete this information)
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The scorching heat waves of 2006 are a preview of the more frequent and severe weather global warming is likely to bring. (Photo: AP)
Last summer’s heat wave caused major damage despite some lessons learned from the deadly heat waves that struck Europe in 2003 and Chicago in 1995.
The U.S. heat wave of 2006 was one of the worst in recent memory -- not only because of its severity, but also because of its reach and length. It lasted nearly a month and swept across the entire country, cutting a swath of record or near-record temperatures from southern California to the East Coast. Hundreds of people died, crops withered, wildfires raged, roads buckled and electric grids struggled to provide power to sweltering customers. Tens of thousands of New York residents lost power for over a week.
Global warming doubles chance of "killer" heat waves
How does climate change fit into the 2006 heat wave? It's impossible to pin a single weather event on global warming, since weather fluctuates naturally. Trends, however, are a different story. Climate models predict a trend of more wild weather. Global warming loads the dice to roll "heat waves" or "intense rainstorms" more often than milder "warm days" or "gentle rains." (Stott et al.)
Chicago 1995: Preview of life in a warmer world
In July 1995 the climate dice rolled "heat waves" for Chicago. For Pauline Jankowitz, an elderly woman, the stretch of heat nearly cost her her life. As told in Eric Klinenberg's gripping account, Heat Wave: A Social Autopsy of Disaster in Chicago, on the advice of a friendJankowitz changed up her routine. She ventured out of her apartment when the heat became unbearable, caught an air-conditioned bus to an air-conditioned market and shopped until she felt rejuvenated. As she told Klinenberg, that time in July was "the closet I've ever come to death." For others, it was too close—739 people perished.
Chicago's temperature spike began July 13 when the temperatures hit a record 106 degreesFahrenheit. The mercury didn't fall below 90 degreesFahrenheitfor five days. In those five days, a lethal combination of high humidity and hot nighttime temperatures offered little or no escape from the heat. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and low-income people, were hit especially hard.
While Jankowitz was able to cool herself at home with wet towels, a fan and a rickety, old AC unit, 49,000 homes lost power—and air conditioning. (Klinenberg)The Centers for Disease Control later concluded access to air conditioning could have saved hundreds of lives. Instead, the morgue overflowed, and nine 48-foot refrigerated meat trucks were brought in to store the bodies. (Semenza et al.)
Those who needed medical help often reached it too late, after heat exhaustion or heat stroke set in. By the second day, medical emergencies exceeded capacity. Ambulances drove around with nowhere to unload. About 23 hospitals went on "bypass," meaning their doors were closed to new patients.
Chicago 1999: Some lessons learned
In July and August 1999, another scorcher hit Chicago. Because of lessons learned in 1995, the WindyCity's health and emergency systems responded much better. The 103 heat-related deaths that occurred were many fewer than in 1995's tragedy. But losing dozens of residents to heat-related emergencies is still not acceptable, and with even hotter temperatures in the future, the death toll can be expected to rise.
Unfortunately, Chicago is just one example of our increasing susceptibility to heat waves.
Heat waves have grilled other parts of the U.S. over the past two decades, with deadly consequences. A 1980 heat wave claimed 1,700 lives in the East and Midwest; in 1988 another East/Midwest heat wave killed 454 people; the 1995 heat wave also claimed lives in Philadelphia, Milwaukee and St. Louis in addition to Chicago's losses, and in 1998, more than 120 people in Texas died from a heat wave.
Europe 2003: Most lethal heat wave
The world's deadliest heat wave on record struck Europe in 2003, considered the hottest European summer in five centuries. High temperatures broke records in many countries. England hit a historical high on August 10 when the thermometer in Gravesend-Broadness, Kent hit 100.6 degreesFahrenheit. In Germany, an all-time record of 104.4 degreesFahrenheitwas set on August 8.
The extreme temperatures led to a tragic loss of life. A staggering 27,000 people died as a result of the relentless heat, breaking all records for heat-induced fatalities. In France alone, where hospitals were overwhelmed, more than 14,000 people died.
Survivors of the intense heat also suffered. Dehydration, heat stroke and fevers were common. Advanced stages of shock were hard to treat. Some suffered irreversible brain damage from advanced fevers.
Medical costs soared. The heat wave prompted the French government to fund an extra $45 million for elderly people and hospitals, and led French health officials to up France's health spending by $6.8 billion over five years.
There have always been heat waves, but as the global temperature rises, heat waves like these are expected to become more frequent.
Diseases Spread as Climate Changes
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The 1994 hantavirus outbreak in the Southwest U.S. suggests how global climate change can lead to rapid spread of disease. (CDC)
One day in the spring of 1993, an otherwise healthyyoung man was rushed to a hospital in New Mexico because he was having trouble breathing. Within hours, he died of acute respiratory failure. He had been on his way tothe funeral of his fiancée who had died from similar causes days earlier. Within a week, medical experts discovered a handful of similar deaths in the Southwest. All of the victims had been young and relatively fit.
The culprit? Hantavirus. Virtually unknown in the United States before 1993, by February 2006,416 cases of hantavirus had been found in a number of states as far-flung as Florida and New York.
Hantavirus is a lung disease that is spread by carriers like deer mice. People contract the disease by breathing in the virus that has gotten into the air through rodent droppings and urine.
Scientists suspect a link between climate change and the 1993-94 hantavirus outbreak. Six years of drought followed by heavy spring rains in 1993 produced a burst of plant growth. This in turn led to a tenfold increase in the population of deer mice. Extreme weather, such as drought and torrential downpours, will be increasingly common as the Earth heats up.
Mosquitoes and mice spread, carrying disease
Climate limits how far many diseases can spread. In the U.S., a warmer climate and the heavy, extended rains it brought likely helped spread the hantavirus. In other places, a warmer world is helping expand the ranges of insects that carry diseases like dengue and yellow fever. People who historically had little or no risk of getting these diseases could soon have to worry about them. While other measures may be effective in keeping infectious diseases at bay, climates influence will either require more stringent measures or make failures more likely.
Like hantavirus cases suddenly showing up in the U.S., outbreaks of various diseases have been reported in parts of South America and Africa that until recently had never seen them. In Mexico, dengue fever has spread above its former elevation limit of 3,300 feet and has appeared as high as 5,600 feet.In Colombia, the mosquitoes that carry dengue fever and yellow fever viruses were previously limited to 3,300 feet but have been recently foundat 7,200 feet. (Epstein,P.)
While disease-carrying mosquitoes are already moving into new areas, a 1998 study provides sober results about what the future might hold. Using three different global climate change models, researchers found that a relatively small rise in temperature increases dengue's epidemic potential. (Patz) As temperatures rise, fewer mosquitoes are necessary to maintain or spread these kinds of serious, often fatal disease.
Rising Waters Imperil Coastal Property
Caption for this photo:Erosion can destroy coastal property, such as this beach house located along North Carolina's Outer Banks. (NOAA)
The historic Cape Hatteras Lighthouse was built in 1870 on a strip of sand more than a quarter mile from the water's edge. It was thought to be safe from the sea's force. For almost a century, it was. But by the 1970s, the slow rise of the ocean's waves threatened its foundation. The lighthouse was a mere 160 feet from the water's edge.
To preserve the landmark, the nation's tallest brick lighthouse, the National Park Service moved it more than half a mile inland—an engineering feat that took a decade to plan and cost taxpayers a whopping $10 million.
Beach-front owners on the Outer Banks are losing ground, too. People from all over visit the shores, which are now lined with beach houses, explains Doug Stover, cultural resource manager of CapeHatterasNationalSeaShore. "What's happening," says Stover, "is that they're losing more sand so they're trucking in more sand ... to preserve their homes."
How global warming raises sea levels
Higher seas are one of the most certain consequences of global warming. Why? For one, melting glaciers and polar ice sheets add water to our oceans. Glaciers store water on land. When these huge ice masses melt into the oceans, it adds volume and water levels rise.(The concept is simple to demonstrate. Adda bunch of ice cubes to a glass of water that's already full to the brim and it will overflow. That extra water is like the extra ocean water from melting glaciers.)
On top of that, water expands as it gets warmer. So as the temperature rises, the same amount of water takes up more space. This raises sea levels higher.
Risks multiply as sea levels rise
Rising sea levels are a double whammy for the coastline. Not only do they flood the land, but higher ocean waves also erode more coastline. Coastal residents face a constellation of concerns: higher flood risk, more property damage and higher insurance rates. (Higher insurance rates can also cost taxpayers, since the federal government subsidizes flood insurance for many coastal properties.)
The lighthouse's situation illustrates another way in which global warming puts coastal property owners in double jeopardy. When scientists from the National Academies of Science assessed the lighthouse's troubles, they found two main reasons for the eroding foundation: rising sea levels and hurricanes. Hurricanes are expected to get stronger as global warming worsens. On the health front, rising seas also contaminate fresh water supplies with salty water in places like Philadelphia, New York City (its drought supply), and much of California's Central Valley.
Trouble throughout the country
Over the twentieth century, the seas rose between four and eight inches, ten times the average rate of the last 3,000 years. This alarming trend threatens all of the nation's coastal communities, where more than half the U.S. population lives. Other parts of the globe are vulnerable, too. More frequent and extreme flooding due to sea-level rise threatens low-lying areas near the mouths of the Nile in Egypt, the Mekong in Vietnam and Cambodia, and Ganges and Brahmaputra in Bangladesh and other rivers around the world. Italy's famous sinking city of Venice, which is surrounded by water and whose ground underneath is subsiding like Louisiana's, is also particularly vulnerable.
Scientists project that sea levels will continue to rise as a result of human-produced greenhouse gas pollution and could reach an additional 3.5 inches to 3 feet by the end of the century, with the possibility of even larger rises should the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica disintegrate. A foot of higher waters could destroy anywhere from 50 to 1,000 feet of horizontal shoreline in many parts of the U.S., depending on the slope of the coastline and other factors. Here is a snapshot of different areas suffering from rising seas.
- One-third of the marsh at the Chesapeake Bay's Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge is now submerged.
- The edges of mangrove forests in Bermuda are lined with recently drowned trees.
-The loss of wetlands, Mother Nature's first defense against storms, put Louisiana's coastline and New Orleans in a precarious position. About every thirty minutes an area of land the size of a football field in the Mississippi Delta vanishes and is replaced by open water. (While global warming is contributing to rising sea levels, part of Louisiana's land loss is due to subsidence from both natural and man-made causes.)
- On the West Coast, flat, low-lying coastal areas such as the San FranciscoBay area and parts of the L.A. area also vulnerable.
- If sea level continues to rise, thousands of square miles of land in densely populated areas such as the eastern U.S. may be lost in a century or two, and flooding during storm surges will worsen. Construction of physical barriers such as seawalls would be expensive and in some cases infeasible.
References
The Dangers of Global Warming, U.S., M. Khole and M.M. Dandekar. "Natural Hazards Associated with Meteorological Extreme Events." Natural Hazards, 31. 2004. 487–497.
Diffenbaugh, N.S., J.S. Pal, R.J. Trapp, and F. Giorgi. "Fine-scale Processes Regulate the Response of Extreme Events to Global Climate Change." Proceedings of the NationalAcademy of Sciences, 102(44). 2005. 15, 774-15, 778.
Environmental Defense. "Global Warming, Heat Waves and Unhealthy Air." September 2006.
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, WG1, CambridgeUniversity Press., 2001.
Klinenberg, Eric. Heat Wave: A Social Autopsy of Disaster in Chicago. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2002.
Kunkel, K. E., S. A. Changnon, B. C., Reinke, and R.W. Arritt. "The July 1995 Heat Wave in the Midwest: A Climatic Perspective and Critical Weather Factors." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 77. 1966. 1507–1518.
McGeehin, M.A. and M. Mirabelli. "The Potential Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Temperature-related Morbidity and Mortality in the United States." Environmental Health Perspectives, 109, Supplement 2,2001. 185–189.
Trigo, R. M., R. García-Herrera, J. Díaz, I. F. Trigo, and M. A. Valente. "How Exceptional Was the Early August 2003 Heat Wave in France?" Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L10701, doi:10.1029/2005GL022410, 2005.
Semenza, Jan C.; Rubin, Carol H.; Falter, Kenneth H.; Selanikio, Joel D. Flanders, Dana; Howe, Holly L.; Wilhelm, John L. “Heat-Related Deaths During the July 1995 Heat Wave in Chicago.” New England Journal of Medicine. Volume 335:84-90. Number 2. 11 July 1996.
Stott, P.A., D.A. Stone, and M.R. Allen, Human Contribution to the European Heat Wave of 2003, Nature, 432. 2004.610–614.
Chameides, Bill; Wang, James. Global Warming’s Increasingly Visble Impacts. Environmental Defense, 2005, 24.
Epstein, Paul R. "Climate and Health." Science. Vol. 285. no. 5426, DOI: 10.1126/science.285.5426.347. 347-38.
Epstein, P., H. Diaz, S. Elias, G. Grabherr, N. Graham, W. Martens, E. Mosley-Thompson, and J. Susskind. 1998. "Biological and Physical Signs of Climate Change: Focus on Mosquito Borne Diseases." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79, 409-417.
IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Edited by J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson. New York: CambridgeUniversity Press.
Loevinsohn, M.E. 1994. "Climate Warming and Increased Malaria Incidence in Rwanda." Lancet, 343, 714-718.
Patz, Jonathan A.; Martens, Willem J.M.; Focks, Dana A.; Jetten, Theo H. "Dengue Fever Epidemic Potential as Projected by General Circulation Models of Global Climate Change." Environmental Health Perspectives. Volume 106, Number 3, March 1998.
Scott, Michon. "Hantavirus Risk Maps." NASA Earth Science Enterprise Data Centers. 5 February 2002. (16 Feb. 2006).
Image courtesy Cynthia Goldsmith, Sherif Zaki, and Luanne Elliott, Infectious Disease Pathology Activity, DVRD, NCID, CDC.
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Environmental Disasters
DateLocationDeaths
1980East and Midwest1,700
1988 East and Midwest454
1998 Texas120
July 1995Chicago739
July-AugChicago103
20035 countries in27,000
Europe(14,000 in France)
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Hantavirus is a lung disease that is spread by carriers like deer mice.
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…. water expands as it gets warmer. So as the temperature rises, the same amount of water takes up more space. This raises sea levels higher.
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