- 1 -

SPECIAL REPORT

FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT

MISSION TO THE DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF KOREA

26 October 2001

HIGHLIGHTS
  • This year’s food production in DPR Korea has shown a substantial recovery compared to last year’s reduced output, despite the impact of the spring drought on crops in earlier stages of growth.
  • The factors behind this strong recovery include favourable performance of rains from mid-June through August, international assistance with the provision of fertilizers, improved and timely availability of farm machinery and other inputs, intensified national endeavours including increased budgetary allocation for agriculture and a mobilization of people’s efforts.
  • The 2001 cereal production is forecast at 4.26 million tonnes (or 3.54 million tonnes in milled basis), the best harvest since 1995/96, and larger by 38 percent compared to last year’s reduced harvest.
  • Despite a significant recovery in 2001, the domestic production will fall well below the minimum food needs and the country will again have to depend on substantial external food assistance for next year as its capacity to import commercially remains highly constrained.
  • The cereal deficit for 2001/02 (November/October) is estimated at 1.47 million tonnes compared to 2.2 million tonnes in the previous year. With commercial imports anticipated at 100000 tonnes, 1.37 million tonnes will need to be covered by food aid and concessional food imports.
  • Based on vulnerability analysis and existing targeting capacities, the Mission recommends the mobilisation of 525000 tonnes of food aid in cereals and 85000 tonnes of other food items during 2001/02 for the population groups who are particularly at risk.

1.OVERVIEW

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited the country from 25 September to 5 October to assess the 2001 crop harvest, forecast 2002 winter/spring wheat, barley and potato crops, and review food supply prospects for the 2001/02 marketing year (November-October), including food aid requirements.

Following the standard assessment methodology, the Mission members interviewed government, county and cooperative officials, observed standing and harvested crops in fields and carried out crop cuts to assess yields, visited schools and nurseries, checked Public Food Distribution Centres, and interviewed families. The Mission covered seven out of 12 provinces of the country, which account for over 80 percent of the national cereal production. The provinces visited include South Pyongan, North Pyongan, North Hwangae, South Hwangae, Pyongyang (municipality), Kangwon and South Hamgyong. Discussions were also held with staff of UN agencies, NGOs, and Diplomatic missions based in Pyongyang. The Mission also used high resolution SPOT-4 satellite images to verify vegetation conditions in 2001 compared to the previous years.

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS, ROME

WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME, ROME

Relatively good and well distributed rainfall from mid-June to end-August, following the 2001 spring drought, benefited the production of 2001 main crops, substantially overcoming the potential adverse effects of the drought. Reservoirs were also replenished so that water levels in most of them, though still low, have been better than the earlier part of the year, facilitating improved irrigation. At the same time, determined to increase food crop production as much as possible, the government effectively mobilized the national and people’s efforts. The government budget for agriculture, reportedly increased by 10 percent compared to last year, translated into increased import of fertilizer, tractors, tyres, machinery spare parts and fuel. International assistance, especially in providing fertilizers, has also been extremely helpful. The farm inputs were made available to the cooperatives at appropriate times. Also, as and when necessary, people, even school children, worked and provided irrigation manually to crops and assisted with the transplanting and other vital farming activities.

These positive factors resulted in improved crop yields, resulting in a cereal harvest which has been the best since 1995/96 - up on the previous best (1998/99) by about 2 percent and on the last year’s reduced output by 38 percent. However, it must be noted that the production estimate also includes a forecast of 2001/02 winter/spring wheat, barley and potato crops, which account for 10-15 percent of the total cereal output and are still to be planted. The production estimate may need to be revised once the harvest outcome of these crops is known.

Despite its good outcome, the 2001 cereal production will still remain well below the minimum consumption needs of the country. The estimated total domestic cereal production available for the 2001/02 marketing year amounts to 3.54 million tonnes (milled basis/cereal equivalent[1]/). Food use based on an estimated population of 23.5 million and other utilization needs for 2001/02 are estimated at 5.01 million tonnes. This leaves a deficit of 1.47 million tonnes, of which 1.37 million tonnes need to be covered by food aid and concessional imports. Against this requirement, pledged and pipeline food aid amounts to 331000 tonnes. Based on vulnerability analysis and existing targeting capacities targeted food assistance of 525000 tonnes of cereals and 85000 tonnes of other food items for the most needy people is proposed by the Mission to be mobilized for delivery in 2001/02.

The food supply situation showed a significant improvement in 2001, mainly due to substantial international assistance provided both as grant aid and concessional imports. Unless adequate food aid and concessional imports are provided, the food supply situation in 2001/02 will revert to its previous precarious levels with serious food security consequences, particularly for the vulnerable groups.

There is little doubt that widespread starvation in the country has only been averted over the past six years by concerted national efforts and the unprecedented volume of humanitarian food assistance provided by the international community to date. The Mission stresses that the crucial food aid safety net needs to be maintained until sustainable food security is achieved through the recovery of the economy and the rehabilitation of the agriculture sector for which substantial international assistance will be needed.

2.OVERALL ECONOMIC SETTING AND AGRICULTURE IN DPR KOREA

The sharp decline that the economy of DPR Korea experienced since the early 1990s was compounded by the recurring natural disasters since 1995. Over the past seven years, drought or floods have since been visiting the country virtually every year with more or less severity, with the consequent adverse impacts on the production of foodcrops, compounding the impact of critical shortages of fertilizers, agro-chemicals, plastic sheets and farm machinery. Economic decline meant serious resource constraints - domestic and foreign exchange - on the supply of necessary agricultural inputs.

As the economy of DPR Korea has been having to contend with recurring natural disasters, it has also been facing an unfavourable external environment. It achieved significant strides in industrial, agricultural and service sectors up to the late 1980s, utilizing economic linkages with the former USSR and Eastern bloc countries. But the collapse of the former USSR and Eastern bloc countries naturally meant snapping of those linkages for DPR Korea, disrupting the country’s access to resources and markets, thereby initiating the process of economic decline that has since continued unabated.

The industrial sector is in a precarious state, with obsolete machinery and suffering from critical shortages of spare parts and raw materials, while the agricultural sector is plagued by shortages of inputs compounded by adverse weather conditions. Following an improvement in 1998/99 (although still below 1995/96 production) after a continuous decline over the previous several years, cereal production dipped sharply in 2000, generating a massive food gap (import requirement) of over 2 million tonnes. Estimates show that there has been a recovery in 2001 to about the 1998/99 level; the severe 2001 spring drought has been a cause preventing a better harvest. In fact, the government and the cooperative/state farms mounted extraordinary efforts this year to improve food production. The government budget for the agricultural sector, reportedly increased this year by 10 percent compared to last year, translated in increased supplies of agricultural inputs in a timely manner. Substantial international assistance with the supply of fertilizers was provided. These factors obviously have been helpful in substantially circumventing the adverse impacts of the spring drought and resulting in a significant recovery in cereal production in 2001.

In order for the prevailing circumstances to improve and bring about a reversal of the downward economic trend, major efforts are needed with assistance from the international community towards rehabilitating industries, infrastructure, and the agricultural sector. In the agriculture sector, the obsolete and decaying farm machinery and disrupted irrigation facilities need rehabilitating and adequate and timely supply of fertilizers, agro-chemicals and plastic sheets need to be ensured on a regular basis.

3.FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2001/02

3.1Climate

DPR Korea has a continental climate. The annual average rainfall is 1054 mm, ranging from 616–979 mm in the North and North-eastern areas (Changang, Ryanggang, North and South Hamgyong) to 880-1302 mm in the Centre, South-west and South-east (North and South Pyongan, Nampo, Pyongyang, North and South Hwanghae, Kaesong and Kangwon). About 85 percent of all precipitation occurs during the spring-summer period and 60 percent is distributed between June and September. The average temperature varies from –19°C below zero in winter (Ryanggang, January coldest month) to 25°C in summer (South Hwanghae, August hottest month). The frost free period ranges from 160 to 190 days, somewhat limiting the length of the cropping season.

In 2000/01, rainfall started slowly nation-wide and performed very poorly throughout spring, with monthly rainfall all over the country much below the long term average. The drought continued until mid-June. However, as reported by almost all recording meteorological stations, cumulative precipitation between mid-June and September has performed better compared to the very poor performance during the previous cropping season. In most places, rainfall performed at the level of or above the long term average. In South Hwanghae, South Pyongan and Kaesong, the good rains since mid-June were followed by heavy precipitation from July through mid-August, but, then, were interrupted till end of September. The severe spring drought which had resulted in a dramatic yield reduction of the winter and spring 2000/01 double crop, also affected the 2001 maize crop at the early stages of crop growth and resulted in successive plantings. Non-availability of quality seeds constrained further yield improvement. Insufficient rains and low supplies of irrigation water also caused delay in paddy transplanting in many places and a consequential slight decrease of overall planted area. However, it only marginally affected the paddy yields, except in some areas which have suffered from severe water shortages or have not been able for different reasons to pump irrigation water. Figure 1 shows the 2001 rainfall data compared with those of the previous seasons and with the long term average from four representative stations located in the major producing areas of DPR Korea.

Minimum average temperatures in 2001 have been registered at all stations at levels above the values of the respective long term average. Analogously, maximum temperatures have been reported as higher than the long-term average (LTA) from April onwards and significantly higher (by 3 to 4 degrees Celsius) in September. This year’s temperature pattern (and reportedly, the length of the sunshine hours) in most places of the major producing areas has been favourable for both paddy and maize crops during the critical stages of their growth cycles (germination and flowering).

After the Mission’s departure from the country, heavy rains and floods on 9 and 10 October caused extensive damage to property, infrastructure and crops, and loss of life in the eastern provinces of Kangwon and South Hangyong.

Figure 1: Rainfall in Different Provinces of DPRK, 2000/01 Crop Season

3.2Area Planted

Total land area in DPR Korea amounts to 12254300 hectares, while the total cultivated land is estimated to be less than 20 percent of the total land area, i.e. some 2000000 hectares. Approximately 1.4 million is considered suitable for cereal cultivation, 300000 hectares are under vegetable crops and the remaining 300000 hectares is devoted to permanent crops. There is very limited scope for expanding cultivable areas. The Government has investigated the possibility of reclaiming some 300000 hectares of tidal land and another 200000 hectares by terracing of mountainous areas. Due to the high cost involved, only little progress has so far been made mainly in hill terracing.

Paddy is mainly grown in the Centre, South-west and South-east. Maize cultivation is more equally distributed in all provinces, the major areas being South and North Pyongan, South and North Hwanghae and South and North Hamgyong. Other crops include wheat, barley, sorghum, millet, potatoes, soybean, vegetables, fruit trees, and mulberry plantations. The short agricultural growing season limits crop rotations and favours cereal mono-culture in the country.

All available agriculture land is organised and cropped within the cooperative farms (about 38000) and state farms (about 180). The persistent food shortages over the past seven years have led the country to adopt coping strategies which involved cultivation of fragile soils on hill slopes with very high gradients and marginal potential. As a result, deforestation, soil erosion and soil degradation processes have often increased together with silt deposits in rivers and reservoirs. The government is combating this phenomenon by declaring deforestation illegal and by discouraging cereal cultivation on hill/mountain slopes. The Mission has noticed that in the major producing provinces the cultivation of some degraded lands has ceased. However, reforestation and replanting of pasture land needs more attention.

Maize is planted under rainfed conditions or on marginally irrigated lands. Until 1998, maize planted area amounted to some 630000 hectares. But since then, the government has set lower maize planting targets in order to avoid expansion to lands with low potential and diverting land to other crops. On marginal lands, less water requiring cereal crops and pulses have substituted maize while, on lands with higher potential, vegetables and main season potato have entered into the crop rotations. Hence, area planted under maize in 2001, estimated at 496390 hectares, has remained unchanged from the two preceding years.

Paddy is cultivated in the alluvial plains or on graded terraces equipped with irrigation control systems. The cultivated area has remained almost constant over the last decade. Nevertheless, due to severe water shortages during the last cropping season, the paddy area was reduced to 535000 hectares in 2000, with some 45000 hectares diverted to low water requiring and low yielding cereal crops, i.e. sorghum, millet, etc.

In 2001, the reported cultivated area under paddy was 572030 hectares. Due to delayed transplanting in some places and consequential crop substitution on 8000 hectares, the target of 580000 hectares could not be reached. The mission has noted a possible future trend which may lead to a decrease of paddy cultivation on marginally irrigated lands. This is likely to occur also in those areas where irrigation is possible only with intensive pumping which has become extremely difficult under present conditions. A crop substitution in these areas with maize replacing paddy is likely.

The Double Cropping programme initiated in 1996 jointly by the UN agencies and the Government of DPR Korea is considered to be under present conditions an effective strategy towards enhancing food production. The aim of the programme is to utilize the agricultural land between October to June with additional cereal and potato crops to be followed by Maize and Paddy cultivation from June to September. The double cropped area under winter and spring wheat, spring barley and spring potato has increased from 38000 hectares in 1997 to some 191500 hectares during winter 2000-spring 2001 growing season. Winter wheat is sown from the end of September to mid-October, immediately after the harvesting of the main season crops. Accordingly, the factors that affect the cultivated area are timely availability of seed, a wet autumn weather and provision of adequate farm power and labour at a time when the demand for labour is high for harvest and threshing of paddy and maize. The objective of timely sowing is to have 4-5 leaves before growth stops in winter. As a result, the double cropped area is unlikely to expand further under the prevailing conditions. The area under winter/spring crops for the 2001/02 season is forecast to be 57270 hectares under winter wheat and 35630 hectares under spring barley. About 98744 hectares are also planned under spring potato. The farm managers interviewed have suggested that no further expansion of double cropped area was possible under the prevailing technological conditions.