Example Trip Reports for Trip Monitoringby Scott Dennstaedt

Here are a fewexample trip reports e-mailed to pilotsfor proposed flights.

Assumptions
Under IFR departing Thurs, April 8th
CYFD - KBUF (customs)
Depart 1300Z
Route: Direct BUF
37 minutes en route at 5000ft
KBUF - KBED
Depart 1430Z
Route: GEE V14 GDM V431 LOBBY
2 hours en route at 14,000ft

Surface synoptic overview

A developing area of low pressure now moving into the Upper Great Lakes area is trailing a cold front to the southwest.A pseudo-stationary/warm front extends from the lowpressure now in northern IL eastward cutting to the north of the proposed route. Adistinct line of convectionhas developed along the cold front and ahead of the area of low pressure. High pressure off the Southeast coast is keeping the mid-Atlantic and most of the Northeast precipitation free. But this high is slowly retreating in response to the approaching cold front.
Upper-level synoptic overview
A high-amplitude upper-level trough is moving into the eastern-half of the U.S. and is now assuming more of a neutral tilt (previously a positive tilt). Associated jet streak over the Ohio Valley is expected to move east-northeast into the Upper Great Lakes by 12Z-15Z on Thursday which will enhance convection over northern Ohio and eastern Michigan in the early morning. Ridge off the Carolinas is retreating slowly which is allowing this trough to continue to move east.
Forecast
As the low pressure system deepens and occludes and slowly movesinto the lower Great Lakes region, the pseudo-stationary front in theNortheast will sag a bit south through the night intoThursday morning. This willspreadheavy rain intowestern NY and western PA throughout the morning. The primary threat of thunderstorms arrives from the southwest between 15Z - 18Z on Thursday inwestern NY. The precipitation shieldwill be fairly largeand some of the rain in western NY could be heavy in spots. Although there will be definite breaks in the precip in areas, but it's hard to say where. There's a low confidence on the timing of convection into the lower Great Lakes.Appears mostof the area will be experiencing onlymoderate tooccasionally heavy rain, but an outside chance of an embedded thunderstorm remains possible as early as 12Z.
Clouds
Appears that marginal VFRconditions will prevail along most of theproposed route and to the north of the route, however, VFR to maybe even clear conditions will exist in eastern PA,southeastern NY, NJ, CT and most of Mass. Clouds will go from overcast to broken to scattered starting in central NY.If necessary, a flight path with a more southerly routewill give you the best flight conditions in terms of clouds.
Icing
The freezing level willbe about 8,000 feetjust to the west of your departure airport increasing in height eastward to about 12,000 feet in Boston at 16Z. Likely flight will need to be limited to 10,000 feet and below until in central NY where skies should turn more broken to scattered.
Turbulence
Most of the turbulence will exist below about 10,000 feet in western NY. Once clear of the primary precip shield, flight above 8,000 feet should be limited to light chop.
Summary
Overall, the eastern two-thirds of the route should be fairly benign with marginal VFR conditions to the north of the route and VFR conditions to the south. It's the first third of the route that will be difficult. Thunderstorms may be ongoing in the vicinity of western NY or it could be just a moderate rain in the morning. The best chance of thunder occurs after 15Z, but don't count out a heavy cell or two in western PA and western NY in the morning.
Once you reach central NY, the conditions should improve and you may even notice good VFR weather above the clouds at that point.

Assumptions
Departing HPN Thursday morning at 1200 UTC headed to Crossville, TN. After lunch departing Crossville for New Orleans, LA. Flight at or below 11,000 feet MSL.
Surface synoptic overview
Very broad anti-cyclone (high pressure) moving southout of Ontario/Quebec Canada is dominating the northeast and most of the eastern-half ofthe U.S. A dry quasi-stationary front/cold frontoriented generally oriented northwest-southeast splits the high pressurein the mid-Atlanticand has pushed south into northern part of the Southeast and eastern TN Valley regions. The only activity with this front has been a few showers and thunderstorms in the extreme southeastern mid-Atlanticthat have since dissipated. A cool marine layer with northesterly flow around the high has movedinland producing a marginal VFR stratusdeck across the southern mid-Atlantic this morning and early afternoon.
An occluded area of low pressure has been tracking to the northeast from the northern high Plains into Saskatchewan, Canada over the last 24 hours. This low pressure is slowing its northerly progress while trailing a cold front into the northern and central Plains. The cold front has only been drifting east in response to the large high pressure locked firmly in place in the eastern-third of the U.S.
Upper-level synoptic overview
High amplitude trough is moving from eastern Quebec southeast into New Brunswick, Canada keeping a northwesterly flow aloft in the Northeast U.S. today. A broad subtropical ridge, however,is dominating the Southeast as well as the lower MS and TN Valleys at the moment. The axis of the ridge extends north from the western TN Valley into the western Ohio Valley andwestern northern Great Lakes into Ontario, Canada and has moved or strengthened very little over the last 24 hours.
A broad trough with two distinct centers is located in thewestern-third of the U.S.The eastern-mostcenter has been tracking to the north-northeast and is stacked over the surface low now located in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The secondaryupper lowhas been retrograding to the west-southwest now located well off the Wash/Oregon coast. The ridge in the east is creating a blocking pattern which has kept the colder air mass in thewest(along with the surfaceboundary/front)from makinganyeastward progress.
Thunderstorm potential
In thenear-term,a weak short-wave trough evident in the water vapor satellite imagery is moving northinto the southern MS Valley from the Gulf today around the backside of theridge. Given the plume of moisture off the Gulf with heating duringthe day ithas triggered some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in Louisiana.As the high pressure builds south into the mid-Atlantic and Southeast tomorrow, this should keep the threat ofconvection away to the west and southwest ofNew Orleans. However, parts of extreme western LA andextreme eastern TX could see convection develop around 20-21Z tomorrow.
Risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms will existfrom western PA with two waves the first developing around 17Z. This area will quickly dissipateand the second line will develop again in extreme western PAaround 20Z moving east-southeast. Can also expect an area ofwidely scatteredconvection to developaround 20-21Z tomorrow in eastern TN, western SC/NC and northern GA.Best chanceswill be in eastern TN, but most of the convection should stay east of Crossville.Any convection that does develop willmove very slowdue to light upper level winds. Low confidenceat the moment that this convection will develop at all.
Clouds
Cold air dammed in along the eastern foothills of the Appalachains from today's marine layer in the mid-Atlanticwill produce some low-level stratus clouds in the morning fromCharlottesville, VAsouthwest into Atlanta, GA. This will obsure the mountains in this area.All of this should quickly dissipate by late morning as tempsincreasewith southwesterly flow around the high building down into the Southeast.A high-base scattered cumulus field may develop into the eastern to centralTN region in the mid-afternoon. Outside of convective activity, ceilings should remain clear below 12,000 feet over most of the route with the exception of New Orleans which could be looking at a broken stratocumulus sky through most of the afternoon. Bases in New Orleans should remain VFR.
Turbulence
Given the ratherstableconditions with light winds, turbulence should be limited to boundary layer thermal turbulence at or below 6,000 feet AGL in the afternoon.
Icing/Freezing level
Freezing level should be around7,000 feet in the NY area increasing in height to around 12,000 feet in New Orleans. No significant icing can be expected alongthe route.
Summary

Overall a fairly tranquil atmosphere under high pressurealong your route. The only fly in the ointment is the potential for building cumulus in the mid-afternoon in eastern TN. Some of this might develop into deep, moist convection especially toward the mountains of TN, NC, SC and GA.It should be widely scattered.

Assumptions
Flying under IFR at 11,000 feet
Departing KVNY at 1500 UTC and arriving at KDMN around1800 UTC.
Departing KDMN at1900 UTC and arriving at KSOA around 2100 UTC.
Synoptic surface overview
Surface high pressure dominates the southeastern U.S. and into the lower Mississippi Valley bringing in a south to southeasterly flow intowestern and south-centralTexas transporting increasing amount of moisture into the Rio Grande Valley and further north into the central and southern high Plains. An area of low pressure is slowly moving out of the northern Rockies into the northern high Plains extending a cold front south into the central and southern high Plains. As the system begins to occlude and slow its forward progress to the northeast, the cold front is also tracking a bit slowly to the east and is beginning to stall over eastern New Mexico. This slow-moving cold fronthasa couple weak areas ofdisturbances riding on the front bringing showers and thunderstorms to southeasternNew Mexico.
Synoptic upper-level overview
Upper-level, high amplitude 500 mb trough slammed into the west coast of California on Monday morning. Thistrough hasbecome negatively-tilted with time passing over the Four Corners region and has now lifted to the northeast into the northern Plains as it continues to slightly weaken and become stacked with the now occluded low at the surface. A secondary trough located in the Pacific Northwest isrotating around the back side of this trough, but appears to have stopped further movement south.
Sub-tropical ridge is holding firmly in place and dominates Mississippi Valley andSoutheast. The ridge extends well into the northern Mississippi Valley, western Ontario and Manitoba Canada which is keeping thebroadtroughin thewestfrom progressing further east. The proposed route still carries a general an overall broad trough pattern in the western half of the U.S.with the primary concern is a weak short-wave trough with an axis over south-central California into the Gulf of California.
Thunderstorm potential
12Z on Wednesday, ongoing thunderstorms will be present along a slow-moving cold front in a curved line from western Minnesota southwestward into the panhandle of Texas. Additional thunderstorm activitywill likely be occurring in extreme southeast New Mexico and western Texas.
At this time,the highest potential for thunderstorms on Wednesday during the daywill be maximized across the southernhigh Plains and northeastward into the central Plainsandmid/upper Mississippi Valley. The focus of the convection in the southern high Plains is along the western periphery of a strong high pressure systemcentered in the Gulf states.This is in response toa plume ofmoisture being transported from the Gulf of Mexico up the Rio Grande Valley into eastern New Mexico then further north along the cold front.
Thunderstorms willbe very likely between 18Z and 00Zcovering most ofthe eastern-half of New Mexiconortheastward into theTexas and Oklahoma panhandles aided by the weakshort-wave trough,strong heating during the late morning and early afternoonalong withupslope forcing on the east side of the mountains. Thunderstorms will be slow to move to the east in advance ofa stationary front at the tail of the slow-moving cold front in the Midwest. Convective SIGMETs will likely cover this entire regionmost of the afternoon including eastern New Mexico and extreme western Texas northeastinto southeastern Colorado and the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas.
With a quasi-zonal flow over the state of New Mexico, it is also likely that aMesoscale Convective System (MCS) could develop ineastern New Mexico and western Texas lasting well into the night on Wednesday into early morning on Thursday.
Clouds
Skies should be relatively clear from the west coast of California through central New Mexico although some of theextreme coastalregions south of Los Angeles could see some brief low-level clouds inthe morning.Expect clouds to thicken dramatically as you approach your fuel stop at Deming. Deming should remain clear below 12,000 feet with a slight risk of a thin broken to overcast sky at 15,000 feetdeveloping during the late morning. East of Deming, marginal VFR withoccasional IFR conditions willdominate eastern New Mexico and the entire western-half of Texas to include Sonora during the late morning and afternoon on Wedesday. Just southwest of Sonora, expecta good chance of IFR conditions in the afternoon.
Icing and freezing level
Freezing levels will bearound 12,000 feet throughsouthern New Mexico and western Texas.Flight at or below 12,000 feet shouldminimize exposure to structural icing.