ESD126 Energy System Design Project March 18, 2002
The objective of the project is to design an small energy facility/project or a more extensive energy system for all or part of a selected country, accounting for the relevant technical, economic, social and political concerns.
The Schedule
Today: Assignment – proposal for final project
April 8: Due – proposal for final project
May 6: Final in-class presentations (formal presentations) of projects
May 13: In-class discussion of projects and course summary
Project Overview
The Design Process
Step One – Problem Definition:
The first stage in the design process will be to define the problem. Although the problem is pre-defined to some extent, in that “the answer” is an energy system, there is in fact much room for further definition. Note that it is up to each group to define its own project, with possibilities ranging from a detailed study of a village, to a more general national energy plan. The goal is to define a project which uses knowledge and concepts from the course, and fits with the number of people in the group and the time allowed for completion. The development goals of the country (or region in the country), the current and future goals of each of the possible interest groups, and the ways in which these will be affected by the proposed project, must be fully defined in this first stage.
· Hand in the formal proposal on April 8
Step Two – Long-Term Policy:
This phase of the design process will consist of developing a flexible, long-term policy or strategy consistent with your proposal. This will involve constructing a number of possible implementations for the final design and demonstrating how they represent a robust planning strategy to meet future (unknown) needs of the country and the diverse interest groups. These development options are not definite energy system plans, but rather general approaches which can be represented on trade-off graphs. The three computer models may be used as part of the design process in this stage.
· Prepare final report and presentation, for May 6
Step Three – Near-Term Implementation:
This final phase represents a negotiation, or trade-off between the various strategies from step two. The computer models can again be used to help develop one strategy which will guide the implementation in the development of the energy system, and which will address the concerns and needs of all the interest groups.
· The final product from this stage, to be included in the final report and presentation, will be a description of definite actions to be taken in the coming year.
The Product
The full design process will therefore have three components, to be presented by the students as both a written report and a presentation to the class.
1. A research proposal, including a clear statement of
o the problem to be addressed,
o the scope of project,
o the research methods,
o the tools to be used, and
o the expected results with an explanation of their usefulness,
2. A long term, flexible energy policy or strategy, which can be shown both to be robust over a number of possible future (economic) situations, and to address the needs of all the interest groups,
3. A specific implementation for the near term stating concrete actions to be taken over the next year in the development of the energy system.
Specific Assignments
1) The Proposal:
The first stage in the project is for each group to develop and hand in a research proposal. At this point in the project each group is free to define the scope and objectives of their own project, within certain guidelines.
For example, your group can choose to look at the energy needs of the entire country, or choose to focus on a specific region or city/village... Also, you can define the major objective of the project to be to determine the macro-economic effects of using renewables versus gas turbines, or alternatively to be to examine environmental impacts... (These are quick examples to help you start thinking about what you want to do as a group and are not intended to be actual suggestions or limits on possibilities.)
The general guidelines are:
The project must be an energy plan or a specific energy facility installation (e.g., a wind farm or roof-top solar panels…), and the research must include both the modeling of various generating technologies and the use of the computer models.
The method for the research project must incorporate the ideas of multi-attribute trade-off analysis, and include both short term (next year) and long term (10 to 20 year) energy plans (described below).
Be aware of your time and resource constraints (number of people, available literature...). The final grade for the project will depend not only on what you present at the end of the semester, but also on how well your final product matches your initial proposal. Therefore at this stage it is very important to think through your proposal very carefully.
If you run into unforeseen problems after the proposal is handed in, it can be amended - but only through April 22nd, so plan carefully.
The proposal should include:
Introduction: A brief background of the problem to introduce both your project and why it is important.
Objectives: A brief clear statement of your objectives - What are you planning to do for the project?
Tasks: The specific tasks you will do - this section is more detailed and should include and explanation of each task and also an estimation of the amount of time each will require.
Data: The data you will need and how you plan to obtain it
Method: The research method you will use to perform the research
Results: The results (be specific) and their use - Who would find your results useful and why?
2) Final Product
The product expected at the end of the design process has three components:
1. A clear statement of the problem you researched and the objectives of your project for addressing this problem.
2. A quantitative analysis of your proposed project/policy/strategy based on the multi-attribute tradeoff analysis method, which was discussed in class and is summarized below.
3. A final written report including
a) A long term, flexible energy policy or strategy, which can be shown both to be robust over a number of possible future (economic) situations, and to address the needs of all the relevant interest groups,
b) A specific implementation for the near term stating concrete actions to be taken over the next year.
c) The quantitative tradeoff analysis
4. A final presentation to the class, approximately 1 hour in length including time for questions and answers.
This final product has two parts: both an oral, in-class presentation and a written policy.
Use of Computer Models
The computer models available to inform the design process encompass three areas of power system design.
1. A production-cost model which performs an economic dispatch of the available generators, and calculates the customers' electricity rate, and the system-wide emissions,
2. An interactive planning model allowing temporal matching of the hourly and long-term load profiles with the hourly and long-term generation capacity,
3. A load-flow model which accounts for the geographical distribution of the generators and loads, allowing an analysis of the transmission line grid (this model will be made available for those with a deeper understanding of electric power systems coming into the course, but will not be a required part of the project).
The first tool for this design project is a power system “production costing” model – PCCum. The input to this model is the yearly load for the system in the form of a 20 point load duration curve, and the dispatchable power units with their performance and cost characteristics. The model output is then the customers electricity rate, and the total amount of pollutant emissions from the power system.
The second model available is a "load flow" model which allows modeling of the power system in terms of the power flow capability of the system as a whole. The model is an early version of a now commercial product, PowerWorld, and requires standard load flow input data (to be discussed in class). Specifically, this model will allow the designers to determine if the transmission grid can support the electricity flow required by the specified arrangement of the power generators and loads (population centers). If the proposed system layout or expansion is not feasible, alternative projects (in terms of location and/or size/capacity) must be tested, until a solution is found.
The third is called “Power Plan.” This model allows the diurnal load profile (for example, a sharp increase in electricity demand at 7:00am when the majority of factories power up, and a sharp decrease at 7:00pm as people return home) to be matched hour-by-hour to the diurnal generation capacity. This matching becomes a significant factor only as non-dispatchable generators, such as wind and solar, are added to a power system. Thus for this project, which may result in a power system which relies on domestic resources such as wind and solar insolation, this matching will be very important.
Analysis Method: Multi-Attribute Tradeoff Analysis
The analysis should be along the lines of a multi-attribute trade-off analysis (sample graph next page), which means, for example, that you will look at planning options such as:
¨ renewable energy technologies
¨ conventional technologies
¨ conservation/DSM programs
¨ distributed v. centralized options
¨ stand-alone v. grid-connected options
¨ ...
Then mix and match these options as desired and analyze them according to attributes such as:
¨ environmental impacts (emissions, flooding, soil erosion...)
¨ societal impacts
¨ cost
¨ meeting development goals (providing rural employment...)
¨ impact on foreign currency reserves
¨ ...
Finally, each scenario should be analyzed over a mix of potential future events:
¨ different levels of economic growth
¨ different fossil fuel costs
¨ different technology costs
¨ different financing opportunities
¨ ...
Sample Trade-Off Curve from Multi-Attribute Analysis
ESD 126 Final Project, Spring 2002 page 1