PEACE INDEX - MARCH 2000
Ephraim Yaar and Tamar Hermann
The majority of the Jewish public in Israel feel that the demands made by Shas with regard to the ministry of education are unwarranted. There is also a majority who believe that the AG (Attorney-General) acted properly in instructing the police to open an investigation on Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef, following his assertions directed against the minister of education. It is scarcely surprising, then, to learn that a large majority opposes the possibility that Barak would like to indulge this party and accede to its demands on the education ministry issue, in return for Shas' vote in favor of his peace policy.
All this despite the prevailing tendency to believe that if Shas' demands in this respect are met, their Knesset representatives will, in effect, vote in favor of the government's peace policy. At the same time, we found that, according to current opinion, Shas support for this policy would be prompted by purely pragmatic reasons, not by ideological persuasion. For, as revealed by our findings, both the voters of Shas and its leader, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, are perceived by the public as wholly Rightist in their stand on peace.
In light of the recent negative developments in peace negotiations with Syria, especially the failure of the Geneva summit, we explored public opinion on Prime Minister Barak's functioning in this respect. It would seem that the public is divided into two near-equal camps: those who rely on Barak to maintain Irael's vital interests, and those who do not, with the latter more resolute than the former. The two groups with the least confidence in Barak are Shas and United Torah Jewry voters.
In the wake of the Pope's visit to Israel, we ascertained public opinion on relations between Israel and the Vatican pertaining to the peace process. It was found that the overwhelming majority believes Israel can maintain close ties with the Vatican, and a small majority even estimates that greater Vatican involvement in the peace process would be desirable where Israel's interests are concerned.
The drop in public confidence in peace with the Arab world in general and Syria in particular, observed in recent months, continues in March. Decline in confidence on the Syrian issue was particularly steep, but a decline in support was also observed regarding an agreement based on full withdrawal in return for full peace.
These are the principal conclusions to be drawn from the Peace Index poll held on 29 and 30 March.
A majority of 55% feel that Shas' demands regarding the Ministry of Education are unwarranted, as against 35% who justify the demands, and 10% who have no clear opinion on the matter. Similarly, more than one half of the public -- 56% -- believe that the Attorney-General was right to order an investigation of Rabbi Yosef’s statements on Education Minister Yossi Sarid. 35% believe he was wrong and 9% don't know. It should, however, be noted that the respondents’ attitudes on the two issues did not fully coincide. This is borne out by the fact that of those who believed the demands were not justified, 20% claimed that the A-G was wrong in ordering an investigation -- presumably in the desire to maintain solidarity and avoid exacerbating internal rifts, or prompted by tactical considerations and the desire to prevent Shas from leaving the coalition at this juncture. Similarly, 35% of those who believed the demands were warranted per se, felt that the A-G was correct in deciding to bring charges against Rabbi Yosef, presumably due to their reservations regarding the Rabbi's manner of expressing himself.
A clear majority of 61% are opposed to the Prime Minister's acceding to Shas demands regarding the ministry of education, so as to ensure that its Knesset representatives vote in support of his peace policy; (27% are in favor, 1% feel that Barak should comply with Shas’ demands regardless of their vote on the peace process, and 10% don't know). A division of positions on this issue according to party voting in the 1999 elections indicates that the number of those opposed to indulging Shas are highest in all parties identified as supporters of the Barak peace policy - Meretz (72%), One Israel (74%), Center party (75%) and Shinui (76%). In other words, the dilemma between attempts to strengthen the government in order to advance its peace policy, and the desire to retain a properly working democratic regime --was decided by these parties’ voters in favor of democracy -- not peace. It is interesting to note that 35% of Shas voters are also opposed to the Prime Minister's indulging their party in return for its support of his policy. This group seemingly is unwilling to support peace, even if Shas did benefit from the perks it would obtain as part of such a deal with the Prime Minister.
As stated, the most frequent estimate (47%) was that if their demands on the ministry of education were met, Shas MK's would indeed vote in favor of Barak's peace policy, (34% do not believe this and 20% have no clear opinion on the matter) -- despite the fact that Shas leader Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef, as well as this party voters, are seen by the majority of the public as holding evidently Rightist views. Thus, on a continuum ranging from Left to Right, 45% of respondents placed Rabbi Yosef on the Right, 28% believe he is the center of the map, and only 12% put him on the Left; (15% don't know). 57% of the respondents put Shas voters on the Right, 22% in the center and 9% to the Left (11% don't know). In other words, it is widely estimated that the Shas representatives in the Knesset will vote in favor of Barak's peace policy, based on the concept that it is a party of great pragmatism -- not a party of peace. Cross-tabulation of the answers to this question with the Knesset vote in the 1999 elections revealed no substantive differences in how Shas' positions were perceived by voters of the various parties.
In light of recent developments in the negotiations with Syria, we explored the people's degree of confidence in the prime minister in this regard. Findings revealed that the public is split almost in the middle: 48% rely on Barak as against 46% who do not. However, while the number of those who greatly rely in him (17%) is less than the number who have some confidence in him (31%), the number of those who have no confidence in him whatsoever (25%) is greater than those who do not particularly rely on him (22%). In other words, the camp of his "believers" is less resolute in its position than that of the "non-believers". If replies on the degree of confidence placed in the Prime Minister are categorized in accordance with Knesset votes in the last elections, they indicate a clear majority --among voters in One Israel, Meretz, Shinui and the Centrist party -- for those who rely on him-- about 75%. On the other hand, there is a distinct majority in the other parties who have no confidence in him -- 64% in the NRP, 62% in Israel B'Aliya and 60% in the Likud. The highest rate of no-confidence was found among Shas voters -- 77% and United Torah Jewry -- 79%.
Our findings suggest that the Pontiff's historic visit was welcome by the public at large, notwithstanding the reservations voiced by some members of the religious establishment. 70% quite support or greatly support future close relations between Israel and the Vatican (20% are opposed and 10% don't know). Answers in accordance with respondents' degree of religious observance indicate that while support of close ties might differ from one group to another, even the most religious groups do not reject such an idea out of hand; 38% of ultra-orthodox respondents supported it (as against 57% opposed while the remainder didn’t know), 50% of the orthodox respondents were in favor (30% opposed), the traditional supporters of close relations numbered 71% (18% opposed), and the secular count was 79% (13% opposed). The orthodox and ultra-orthodox sectors thus seem less hostile towards the Vatican than some of its leaders.
As for the question of whether the Vatican should become more involved in the peace process, we found a majority, albeit smaller, who feel that such an involvement would serve Israel's interests -- 49% as against 41% (the remainder have no opinion). In other words, the public differentiates between an interest in closer ties and the estimate that Vatican involvement could prove useful in the peace process. While the largest number of respondents -- 41% -- feel that Vatican policy is balanced, the number of those who consider it more pro-Arab (29%) is higher than those who consider it more pro-Israel -- 14%. (16% don't know).
The general peace index for March dropped to 54 points (55.9 in February). The Oslo index was 46 (46.4 in February) and the Syria index dropped steeply to 32.9 (as against 40.5 in February).
The peace index project was conducted by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research at Tel Aviv University, headed by Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Dr. Tamar Hermann. The telephone interviews were conducted by the "Makhshuv" Institute on 29 and 30 March 2000, and comprised 506 respondents, representing of the Jewish adult population of this country (including Judea and Samaria and the kibbutzim). Margin of error in a sample of this size is approx. 4.5%.
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PERMANENT QUESTIONS ON THE GENERAL PEACE INDEX
- Do you believe or not believe that in the coming years there will be peace between Israel and the Arabs?
1. Certain there will be peace / 9.5
2. Think there will be peace / 22.1
3. In the middle / 9.4
4. Think there will not be peace / 21.2
5. Certain there will not be peace / 33.6
6. Don’t know/no opinion / 4.2
- In general, do you consider yourself a supporter or opponent of the peace process between Israel and the Arabs?
1. Greatly opposed / 10.6
2. Somewhat opposed / 6.0
3. In the middle / 9.2
4. Somewhat supportive / 37.9
5. Greatly supportive / 34.3
6. Don’t know/no opinion / 2.0
PERMANENT QUESTIONS ON THE OSLO INDEX
- What is your opinion on the agreement that was signed in Oslo between Israel and the PLO (Agreement of Principles)?
1. Heavily in favor / 14.7
2. Somewhat in favor / 23.9
3. In the middle / 19.7
4. Somewhat opposed / 11.4
5. Heavily opposed / 21.9
6. Don’t know/no opinion / 8.4
- Do you believe or not believe that the Oslo Agreement between Israel and the PLO will bring about peace between Israel and the Palestinians in the coming years?
1. Greatly believe / 12.4
2. Somewhat believe / 23.8
3. In the middle / 11.6
4. Somewhat don’t believe / 16.6
5. Certainly don’t believe / 29.1
6. Don’t know/no opinion / 6.5
PERMANENT QUESTIONS ON THE SYRIAN INDEX
- What is your position regarding support for a full peace treaty between Israel and Syria in exchange for withdrawal from the Golan Heights?
1. Greatly in favor / 12.2
2. Somewhat in favor / 9.2
3. In the middle / 9.7
4. Somewhat opposed / 17.0
5. Greatly opposed / 48.3
6. Don’t know/no opinion /
3.6
- Do you believe or not believe that in the coming years there will be peace between Israel and Syria?
1. Certain there will be peace / 6.7
2. Think there will be peace / 23.1
3. In the middle / 11.6
4. Think there will not be peace / 20.9
5. Certain there will not be peace / 33.9
6. Don’t know/no opinion /
3.8
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