Egypt's Looming Climate Change Nightmare

Every summer, over one million tourists flock to Alexandria, Egypt, to enjoy the sun and the beaches. The historic city, with its magical charm, is also home to four million people. But the beautiful fragile coastal city of the Mediterranean Sea stands to lose much from the imminent danger of climate change, and it may not even be Egypt's biggest loss.

Alexandria hosts the biggest harbor in Egypt. It is an important economic and trade hub and contributes nearly 40 percent of the country's industrial activities. According to projections from computer climate models, a large part of the city may be inundated due to climate change.

"Projections depend on lots of things," said Dr. Piers Forster, a Roberts Research Fellow in the School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds. "You get a whole lot of different scenarios and you put them into your climate computer and it produces several models."

Rising Sea Level

Computer-generated climate models that predict the effects of climate change often have widely varying results. However, most of them agree that a rise of around 50 cm in water level will lead to the destruction of more than 30 percent of Alexandria. They also predict such a rise is probable during the current century.

The rise in sea water level is attributed to the increased global temperature. Simply put, water in oceans and seas will expand as the temperature increases.

"We can predict quite accurately how sea level will rise by thermal expansion – and this could be anywhere between 20 cm to 60 cm by 2100, or half this by 2050," explained Forster. "This won't be too bad, but some scientists are predicting that Greenland could melt very fast - and there is an extra 600 cm of sea-level sitting on top of Greenland."

This could easily lead to Alexandria – and several other coastal cities in Egypt – completely disappearing under water. "However, there are big arguments between the experts as to whether Greenland will melt fast." Some think it could happen in 50 years, while others say it may take up to a millennium.

Many scientists argue that Greenland and the Antarctic sheets are melting faster than a decade ago. There is no clear data of whether this rate will increase or decrease in the future.

However, a rise of 50 cm alone – predicted by most accurate climate models – could force millions of people permanently out of their homes. It could also have dire economic effects on Egypt that would lead to widespread hunger and poverty.

"The situation is very serious and it calls for action right now. We cannot delay any further," said Dr. Mohammed El-Raey, an environmental professor at Alexandria University who has done several researches on climate change.

The Delta

As bad as this may sound, it does not end there. The dangers posed by climate change extend to the Nile Delta – an area where the River Nile branches out and meets the Mediterranean Sea. The Delta is formed of very fertile arable land. It produces nearly 50 percent of Egypt's agricultural products. This tiny piece of land is also home to more than 30 percent of Egypt's population.

The underground waters from the Nile that irrigate the Delta region will be contaminated by salty water if the sea water level increases, explained El-Raey. "Low-lying areas will also be flooded as the underground water increases and moves up."

According to a report produced recently by the World Bank, a 50 cm rise in sea water could displace more than 10 percent of Egypt's population who live in the densely packed Delta.

"According to reports, Egypt is the third most vulnerable country in the world to climate change," said El-Raey. "It is only surpassed by Bangladesh and Vietnam." The World Bank report confirms this fact, saying Egypt faces "catastrophic consequences."

Up to a third of the Delta region may be affected by climate change in one way or another, explained El-Raey. "Of course there will be a huge impact on the economy and the country's ability to feed its citizens." The collapse of essential crops would cause hunger to millions of the poor who live in Egypt as food prices soar.

"Some researches claim that this could decrease Egypt's GDP by about five percent. We are talking billions of dollars here!" exclaimed El-Raey.

Already Happening

While this level of destruction is several decades away, people are already starting to feel the effects of climate change. Severe storms in Egypt's northern coast have become more frequent in the last few years.

"We used to get storms once or twice a year. Now we are getting them 4-5 times," said El-Raey. Hisham Farid, an engineer who has lived all his life in Alexandria said, "the storms that I grew up with are still there, but now they are more severe than ever before."

The sea has been creeping up slowly and Alexandria's sandy beaches are shrinking steadily. Some lowland beaches have nearly disappeared. Small changes in the temperature of the sea have also caused major changes in fish patterns.

"The sea is not what it used to be," said Abu Shehab, a fisherman in his late 70's, as he pulled his empty nets for the third time. "The fortune of the sea is disappearing." For poor fishermen such as Abu Shehab, a bad fishing day means a hungry night for his family.

Climate change affects the direction of winds and the circulation patterns of the sea. "Of course, there are fishes that will increase and others that will decrease. There are also changes in the nesting places of fish," explained El-Raey.

Reda Kandeel, a fishing hobbyist, said that the fish do not show up in the right time anymore. "We used to fish for Denis fish in November when they were plentiful. Now December is almost over and Denis fish are still very rare. And the ones we do manage to find are tiny."

According to El-Raey, there are no serious researches in Egypt on the effect that climate change is having on fish. However, he expects a decline because fish "take a long time to adapt to different climates."

The Delta area is no better. In Rasheed, the city where the Rosetta stone – which held the secrets to understanding the writings of ancient Egyptians – was discovered, the shores have been retreating at an alarming rate since the 1990's. According to Omran Frihy, a coastal researcher in Alexandria, more than 58 meters have been disappearing every year since 1989.

Action

Egypt contributes less than 0.5 percent of the global emissions of greenhouse gases – the gases that cause climate change. "We must focus on adaptation instead of investing mainly in mitigation programs," explained El-Raey.

The formation of a main road, called the Corniche, along the coast of Alexandria has offered some protection against climate change. Large boulders of stone were used to protect the Corniche from the sea. By coincidence, this also protects the city against the sea water rise to a certain degree.

Additionally, large amounts of sand are dumped every year to save the diminishing beaches that generate much of Alexandria's touristic revenues.

However, El-Raey doesn't think this would be enough to protect the country from the impeding disaster. "We don't have as much studies on climate change as we should," he sadly said. "And the little we have is fragmented. We need to form a climate change institute and gather all the research we have into it."

"We have asked for such an institute several times but our call went unheeded."

A proposed plan to build a dam that spans all the delta is, according to El-Raey, a theoretical and impractical solution. "We cannot build a 2 km wall, how do they plan to build and maintain a 500 km wall?"

In his opinion, there is no one-size-fits-all solution to the problem. The answer lies in forming a clear action plan based on the researches done so far. "Each area has its own way of protection. What works somewhere may not work in another place," he said.

"We need to know which parts are most in danger and start working there. There are clear methodologies laid out that we just need to follow. We are not reinventing anything."

However, like most of the developing world, people in Egypt are rarely concerned with climate change. But it is high time to acknowledge that there is a crisis looming all over the world.

"We all live in a connected world. Now problems in one region can have knock-on effects in other places – these are quite poorly understood," said Forster from the University of Leeds.

El-Raey thinks that before seeking help from the developed world, the Egyptian government must take an initiative. "If our economy and our people are in danger and we are doing nothing, then no one will help."

"The government says the danger is 20 – 30 years away and we are in no hurry. But if we don't start solving the problem now, then it will be too late to save the country," stressed El-Raey. "We have been saying this for 17 years."

Standing knee deep in the cold water, Abu Shehab threw his nets one more time in vain. "I have been fishing in this area for more than 40 years," he sighed with the waves splashing on his face. "I used to catch more than 13 kilograms of fish everyday. Now, I'd be lucky to get 5 fish. I don't know what will the sea offer my son when he takes after me."

Source: Yahia, Mohammed. "Egypt's Looming Climate Change Nightmare ." Economist. 2005. Journal of Turkish Weekly. 20 Aug 2008 <