Economic Strategy Review Panel

ECONOMIC STRATEGY REVIEW PANEL

Friday 25 November 2004

Members of Panel: M Janes, J Metcalf, S Mills, S Pile, C White.

Bone Wells 2 : Hertfordshire Sub- Regional Study

Authors: John Pryor (01992 556217), Jon Tiley (01992 556292)

1. Purpose of Report

1.1  To update Members on progress with the above study. Julian Wells and Paul

Cockle of Bone Wells Associates will attend the meeting and give a presentation on their findings to date.

2. Background : Research Objectives

2.1  The Regional Economic Strategy (RES) Sub Regional Studies were completed in 2003 and mindful of further research, studies, strategies and information, it was agreed that in due course sub-regions commission an update. Owing principally to the preparation of RPG/RSS 14 it was considered timely to consider the Hertfordshire economy and strategic land use and transport issues facing the county. The review of the RES and the Hertfordshire Economic Development Strategy (HEDS) also provides an opportunity to revisit the RES sub-regional study for the County.

2.2  Bone Wells Associates were commissioned by the County Council to re-visit this agenda. The principal objectives of their study are to:

i) Work towards developing a robust position on the acceptable scale

and type of growth in Hertfordshire for purposes of responding to the RSS and for response to the RES review. Acceptable scale will be determined by reference to criteria developed by Hertfordshire.

ii) Review the implications of new data (e.g. census), forecasts, regional and sub-regional plans. This would feed into the first objective and will form the starting point.

iii) Liaise with adjacent regional planning authorities, particularly London, on interregional issues, with the added aim of developing better relations and exploring inter-regional planning assumptions, impacts and policies.

2.3 The review has focused particularly on the implications for:

·  population, housing and workforce growth

·  jobs forecasts considering the scale and type and location, and reflecting different population scenarios

·  the implications of the above for commuting patterns

·  consistency between the different plans, strategies and forecasts

·  strategic capacity constraints

·  implications against key acceptability criteria (quality of life, economic development, social equity etc.)

2.4 Results of the above will enable HCC to be better placed to respond to the RSS consultation and contribute to the Examination in Public on RSS 14 with respect to the following areas:

-  More clarity with respect to forecasts

- Clarity with respect to growth areas

-  Clarity on impact

- Amelioration or infrastructure solutions

2.5 A key aspect of the work was to establish more sustainable measures of economic prosperity and quality of life for the County, in order to propose an alternative to the GVA based targets of the RES. It was agreed that this aspect of the work should to be facilitated by an additional consultant, Roger Levitt of Levitt - Therival, who would work with the consultants and HCC officers to develop this aspect of the study.

3.0 Methodology and Timetable

3.1. The proposed approach and original timetable is as follows:

Phase One

Review in general terms the implications of changes in forecasts, adjacent regional plans and sub-regional plans and new data.

Phase Two

Refinements and further activity contingent on the outputs of Phase One, to take place over the summer and be available in October/November.

Phase Three

Assisting HCC with the submission to EERA and a time to be confirmed, subject to the delay in producing RPG 14/RSS 14.

4.0  Current Position

4.1 Appendix A, summarises the current position with regards to progress

with the study.

4.2  In addition it should be noted that an officer/consultant workshop took place in July to examine the options for taking forward alternative measures of economic success based on sustainability/quality of life criteria. The workshop was based on a paper prepared by Roger Levitt, reviewing alternative conceptions of economic progress and ways to measure it, and drawing out implications for alternative approaches to economic development in Hertfordshire.

4.3 Roger Levitt will continue to advise on the further stages of the study.

5  Conclusion

5.1.  The work so far carried out by Bone Wells has proved to be extremely useful in identifying some of the anomalies in the employment projections being used for RSS and RES, and highlighting the impacts of changes in key population and economic growth assumptions.

5.2.  The output from the Study will be used to inform the County Council’s response to the consultation on the RES and hopefully provide a major input into papers and submissions for the RSS Examination in Public later next year.

5.3.  In addition, the Study will be used to feed into the review of HEDs.

Appendix A

Hertfordshire Strategic Update and Evidence for RSS Inquiry

The County Council has commissioned Bone Wells Associates to undertake a review of strategic development proposals for Hertfordshire. Broadly this work updates work by BWA for the Regional Economic Strategy Sub-Regional Study in 2002/3 which looked at the implications of the Regional Economic Strategy for sub-regional development, including the land use and transport implications. The aim of the current work is to support the County in developing a robust position on the acceptable scale and type of growth in Hertfordshire, primarily for purposes of RSS 14 Inquiry. What is acceptable scale is to be determined by reference to criteria developed by Hertfordshire.

This update is necessary because there have been substantial changes in the context for regional development, including, inter alia:

·  new data, significant data revisions and updated forecasts, including the results of the 2001 Census, some of the key results of which are only just available now; and

·  major revisions to the policy context including the Sustainable Communities Plan, sub-regional plans for growth areas affecting the County, the draft RSS and revisions agreed this month by EERA, and the Barker Report.

The work being undertaken involves:

·  developing a modelling framework so that the quantitative implications of the various growth scenarios for housing, employment and GVA can be examined on a consistent basis;

·  review of the new and updated data and forecasts for the Eastern Region and Hertfordshire, and an examination of their implications;

·  review of the various studies emerging on regional and sub-regional strategy;

·  liaison with adjacent regional planning authorities, particularly London, on interregional issues, to explore inter-regional planning assumptions, impacts and policies;

·  development of indicators to measure quality of life/sustainability that can be used of explore the implications of growth on aspects of life of concern to the County. This is to be done in consultation with the County, as it is not the role of the consultants to impose their own value judgements.

So far the consultants have concentrated on developing the modelling framework, and on reviewing the new and updated data and forecasts that have come out and various relevant studies that have been published.

The modelling framework allows population growth to be translated into dwellings requirements/targets and vice versa, and a resident workforce can be estimated. This can then be compared with the forecast number of jobs, and the net commuting implications derived. There are also modules for estimation of the land requirements for housing and employment. The modelling could be extended to estimate other land uses, indicative infrastructure costs and possibly other indicators relevant to quality of life/sustainability. It can also provide inputs for estimation of traffic impacts. At the moment the model deals with the counties of the East of England, but could be disaggregated to the district level within Hertfordshire.

The consultants have also had dialogue with the County’s consultant on sustainability about appropriate indicators to reflect sustainability and quality of life indicators, but this is in an early stage.

Since the work started in the Spring of this year there have been important developments affecting this work. Particularly, the programme for the RSS14 has been delayed by a year, with the Examination in Public now scheduled for September 2005, and the proposed scale of growth in housing that Hertfordshire will have to accommodate has substantially increased. There have also been a number of important studies dealing with critical issues that have been published, or are currently in progress. It is therefore timely to take stock of how to develop this work, which the consultants are in the process of doing.

Some of the issues emerging from recent work are:

·  as a result of the delayed programme, events have moved on to the point where the original quantitative basis, on which the forecasts underlying RSS 14 policies were developed, have been superseded if not abandoned;

·  there are anomalies in the statistical base data, particularly jobs, which affect Hertfordshire more than other parts of the region, and which raise questions about the robustness of the data on which quantitative proposals for the County are based;

·  the prognosis for Hertfordshire’s economy is, if anything, more buoyant than before, indicating that even higher jobs growth potential in the county is possible if the constraints on growth were removed;

·  the proposed housing targets for the County have been raised, and there could be pressures for further housing from government;

·  there is uncertainty on the status of the headline economic GVA per capita target in the current draft RES, which was fundamental to the employment levels targeted in the Draft RSS and the employment growth led strategy.