Draft Australian Population Association conference program
Thank you to our sponsors!
IMPORTANT NOTES TO HELP YOU ENJOY THE CONFERENCE
- Talks are strictly 20 minutes duration followed by 5 minutes of questions managed by session chairs. A 20 minute talk usually means 10-12 slides
- Underlined names indicate the nominated speaker(s). Please advise us of the speaker(s) for your presentation as soon as possible
- Your presentation must be pre-loaded onto the laptop in the room that you are speaking in. For the initial morning sessions you should arrive 20 minutes early to load your presentation. For all other sessions you should load your presentation in the preceding break
- You can email presentations to for pre-loading by COB 13/7. Pre-loaded presentations cannot be changed
- Session chairs please be on hand prior to the start of your session to assist speakers load their presentations and check they work
- We would appreciate nominations for chairing sessions where a chair is not currently allocated (ie currently ‘TBA’)
While you’re here explore the many amazing attractions of Australia’s Top End! See here for some ideas
DRAFT CONFERENCE PROGRAM
Tuesday 17th July
13:00-17:00 / Registration desk openOutside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
Wednesday 18th July
09:00-09:35 / Conference Opening (registration desk open 08:00 to 14:00)Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
Welcome - Andrew Taylor
Welcome to Country - Bilawara Lee (Larrakia Elder and Larrakia Academic in Residence)
Welcome from dignitaries
09:35-10:20 / Plenary 1
Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
Modern Romance? Cohabitation and the Remaking of the Family
Professor Sharon Sassler, Cornell University
10:20-10:50 / Morning tea
Level 2 foyer
Wednesday 18th July
10:50-12:30 / Concurrent sessions 11a: Northern Territory Demography I
Meeting Room 1
Chair: Andrew Baylis / 1b: Marriage and Partnering
Meeting Room 2
Chair: TBA / 1c: Mortality, Health and Wellbeing
Meeting Room 4
Chair: Ann Evans / 1d: Topics in Chinese Demography
Meeting Room 4
Chair:TBA
The Northern Territory’s 2016 working population – who is in it? And how has it changed in the past ten years?
Tony Barnes
Opportunity, freedom and time - how to sell Darwin as a place to live
Anna Goat
Harnessing ethnocultural community knowledge to understand immigrant women entrepreneurship in Greater Darwin
Kate Golebiowska, Alicia Boyle Ron Mitchell
Who stays and who goes from sparsely populated areas? The case of the Northern Territory
James Thurmer / Intermarriage in Australia: patterns and changes by birthplace and ancestry
Qing Guan Kim Xu
Patterns of Asian intermarriage in Australia
Ann Evans Edith Gray
International marriage and domestic marriage differentials in China: gendered patterns and solidarity of the unions
Shenghan Cai Fei Guo
The Transition of polygamy in Benin: explanatory factors and sources of changes in time
Robert Djogbenou / Estimating mortality for UK ethnic groups – method validation and impact assessment
Pia Wohland & Phil Rees
Sexual behaviour typologies in the context of the HIV epidemic: socio-demographic determinants in rural South Africa, 2010-2011
Brian Houle, Shao-Tzu Yu, Nicole Angotti, Enid Schatz, Chodziwadziwa Kabudula, Xavier Gómez-Olivé, Jane Menken Sanyu Mojola
Does your children’s education make you healthier in old age? Evidence from the Philippines
Jeofrey Abalos
How long is expected to live for the Chinese elderly in “empty nest”?
Chen Wei, Duan YuanyuanLiu Jinju / Demographic dividend and the economic miracle in China
Xin Yuan Yuan Gao
Study on the family orientation of the floating population and its influence on employment and residence
Wang Jinying Hao Junkai
Impact of urbanisation on the changing of rural and urban age structure in the future in China
Meng Xiangjing Jiang Kaidi
The influencing factors of population spatial distribution in northwest China
Ruihua Mi
12:30-13:30 / Lunch
Level 2 foyer
Wednesday 18th July
13:30-15:10 / Concurrent sessions 22a: Internal Migration
Meeting Room 1
Chair: Angelique Parr / 2b: Subnational Population Projections
Meeting Room 2
Chair: / 2c: Immigrant Populations in Australia
Meeting Room 3
Chair: TBA / 2d: Mortality, Health and Wellbeing
Meeting Room 4
Chair:Evi Arifin
Comparing internal migration in the countries of Asia: patterns and progress
Elin Charles-Edwards, Martin Bell, Aude Bernard Yu Zhu
Internal migration and education in Indonesia: what is their relationship?
Salut Muhidin
Educational selectivity of internal migration: a global assessment of 68 countries
Aude Bernard Martin Bell / Using machine learning to forecast population
Kim Johnstone Peter Chiu
The shelf life of subnational projections, from Australia to England
Ludi Simpson, Tom Wilson Fiona Shalley
Creating subnational population forecasts for multiple geographies: existing and new approaches
Tom Wilson
Effective ways of communicating population forecast uncertainty
Fiona ShalleyTom Wilson / Social and economic outcomes of the first generation migrants: a comparison of the four largest Asian ethnic groups in Australia and the United States
Fei Guo & Van Tran
Measuring the spatial integration of the Chinese-born population in Australia, 1981-2016
Qing Guan
African-born people in Australia: what the 2016 Census tells us
Ingrid Tejada & Lev Makaev
Intergenerational occupational mobility of Asia-born immigrants in Australia
Sheruni De Alwis, Nick Parr & Fei Guo / Decomposing the sex-gap in life expectancy: an extended method
Qi Cui, Heather Booth & Vladimir Canudas-Romo
What have we learned from examining long-term changes in temperature-mortality relationship?
Zhongwei Zhao, Edward Jow-Ching Tu Yuan Zhu
Is disability in the oldest-old compressed or not? A comparative study of birth cohorts born 10 years apart
Collin Payne, Zuyun Liu, Darce Costello, Ling Han, Matthew Dupre, Qiushi Feng & Thomas Gill
15:10-15:35 / Afternoon tea
Level 2 foyer
15:35-16:45 / Plenary 2 - Australia at Twenty Five Million: How did we get there and where to next
Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2, Facilitator: Denise Carlton
- Australia at Twenty Five Million: How did we get there? Andrew Howe (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
- Australia at Twenty Five Million: Where to next? Tom Wilson (Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University)
18:15-20:30 / Welcome Reception & Borrie Lecture (19:00-19:45)
Crocosaurus Cove, 58 Mitchell St, Darwin City (
Borrie Lecture:Shifting Rural-Urban Boundaries: New patterns of spatial interdependence and inequality
Professor Daniel T. Lichter, Cornell University
Thursday 19th July
08:45-09:30 / Plenary 3Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
Population Ageing in Australia: Beyond the cities
Professor Peter McDonald, University of Melbourne
09:30-10:45 / Concurrent sessions 3
3a: Indigenous Demography
Meeting Room 1
Chair: James Raymer / 3b: Regional and Local Population Change
Meeting Room 2
Chair: Denise Carlton / 3c: Fertility in Australia
Meeting Room 3
Chair: Kim Johnstone / 3d: Households, residency and families
Meeting Room 4
Chair: Aude Bernard
Understanding the increase - Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander counts in the Census
Debbie Goodwin
How are we going to get there? The relationship between differentials in Aboriginal mortality and 'Closing the Gap'
Helen Ware
30 years of change in central Australian Indigenous employment
Peter Strachan / 2016 Census Program exploring living in small towns
Kate Bond
Towns in Time - 35 years of data and stories about regional Victoria
David Sykes, Béatrice Derody & Mitchell Valentine
Highway to home: international migrant settlement in regional South Australia
Romy Wasserman & Fidelma Breen / The contribution of repartnered fertility to TFR in Australia
Edith Gray & Ann Evans
Underemployment and fertility in Australia
Nick Parr
Explaining fertility change in Australia from 2005 to 2016
Peter McDonald and Helen Moyle / Changing household formation of young adults
Rachel Shipp
How many people experience homelessness?
James O’Donnell
Socio-economic differences in the sources of work-family conflict for Australian parents
Meg Kingsley
10:45-11:05 / Morning tea
Ground floor foyer
Thursday 19th July
11:05-12:45 / Concurrent sessions 44a: Using Administrative Data in Official Population Statistics
Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
Chair: TBA / 4b: Children’s Health and Mortality
Meeting Room 1
Chair: Ann Evans / 4c: Workforce
Meeting Room 2
Chair: Nick Parr / 4d: Fertility
Meeting Room 3
Chair: Edith Gray / 4e: Internal Migration in Australia
Meeting Room 4
Chair: Andrew Howe
Using administrative data to inform previous address history: a comparison with the Census of Population and Housing
Ross Watmuff
Modelling internal migration using linked administrative data. Statistics New Zealand (TBA)
The potential for administrative data to assist in occupancy determination and person imputation in the Census of Population and Housing
Peta Darby
Population coverage studies of national administrative datasets
Warren Cote / Child health and nutrition in the Pacific
Alison Culpin
A mother’s death and child survival: a comparative analysis of two demographic surveillance sites in rural South Africa
Brian Houle, Chodziwadziwa Kabudula, Kobus Herbst & Samuel Clark
Healthcare seeking behaviour for children among climate-induced displaced people in remote Bangladesh
Md Rabiul Haque, Nick ParrSalut Muhidin / The socioeconomic determinants of unpaid work in NSW
Marijan Jukic, Kim Johnstone, L. Ireland & D Sinclair
Who wants to go to work?
Jim Cooper & Jonathan Corcoran
The excessive working hours of young adults: evidence from Transition to Adulthood Survey in Greater Jakarta
Iwu Utomo & Muhammad Ulil Absor
Labour market outcomes of first and second-generation Australians
Aude Bernard / Opportunity cost of childbearing and women’s fertility intention in urban China under the new “two-child” policy
Yuanyuan Duan & Fei Guo
The gap between married women’s desired, intended and actual fertility in Iran: acase study of Tehran
Maryamsadat Hosseini, Udoy Saikia & Gouranga Dasvarma / Decline in internal migration levels in Australia between 1981 and 2016: composition or rate effect?
Sunganani Kalemba, Aude Bernard &Elin Charles-Edwards
Investigating the spatial structure of internal migration in Australia: connectivity, networks, and systems
Rosabella Borsellino, Elin Charles-Edwards, Aude Bernard & Jonathan Corcoran
Revealing the motivations for return migration in Australia
Angélique Parr
Subsequent migration of immigrants within Australia, 1981-2016
James Raymer & Bernard Baffour
12:45-14:05 / Lunch
Level 2 foyer
13:00-14:00 / Australian Population Association Annual General Meeting
Meeting Room 1
Thursday 19th July
14:05-15:45 / Concurrent sessions 55a: Health and Mortality in China
Meeting Room 1
Chair: Alison Culpin / 5b: New Demographic Datasets
Meeting Room 2
Chair: Elin Charles-Edwards / 5c: Official Population Statistics
Meeting Room 3
Chair: Fiona Shalley / 5d: Miscellaneous Demographic Topics
Meeting Room 4
Chair: Andrew Taylor
Health care and poverty reduction in China’s least developed rural areas in its recent rapid socioeconomic changes
Zhongwei Zhao & Mengxue Chen
A study on the changing trend of the major health indicators of the elderly in mainland China: 1998-2014
Lu Jiehua & Guo Ran
Inequality in health status between migrants and urban residents in Chinese cities
Sisi Yang & Fei Guo
A study of the unnatural deaths and related issues during the difficult three year period (1959–1961)
Cheng Enfu & Zhan Zhihua / The present population
Myles Burleigh
People come, people go: a new typology of regions based on the characteristics of visitors linking traditional and non-traditional data sources in Australia
Elin Charles-Edwards & Radoslaw Panczak
Youth Social Exclusion Index at small area level: exploring its relationship with cultural diversity
Riyana Miranti, Robert Tanton & Yogi Vidyattama
The REPstats database for Religion, Education and Population statistics
Crichton Smith, Nick Parr, Nikola Balnave, Lucy Taksa & Brian Croke / Predictive modelling of external departures in lieu of departure cards. Statistics New Zealand (TBA)
A richer picture of regional population change - the component-based approach
Hayley Sandercock
Estimating interstate migration: methods, challenges and results
Rachel Shipp
Net undercount in censuses
Tony Barnes and Tania Mahoney / Immigration shaping Australian politics
Benjamin Krish
Beyond the city: geographical differences in religious identification from the big smoke to the outback
Stephen Reid
The economic impacts of transnational linkages at destination: evidence from the Singaporean diaspora in Australia
Hannah Hia
15:45-16:05 / Afternoon tea
Ground floor foyer
Thursday 19th July
16:05-17:20 / Concurrent sessions 66a: Northern Territory Demography II
Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
Chair: TBA / 6b: Population Ageing
Meeting Room 1
Chair: Ann Evans / 6c: Demographic Forecasting Software
Meeting Room 2
Chair: James Raymer / 6d: Fertility
Meeting Room 3
Chair: TBA / 6e: Miscellaneous Demographic Topics
Meeting Room 4
Chair:James O’Donnell
The Northern Territory Government’s Population Plan
Ian Satchwell
The Northern Territory’s non-resident workforce – context, trends and implications
Anita Maertens
Northern Territory population futures: Trends and projections
Hitesh Khanna / Projection of ageing population: a comparative study between France and Japan two developed countries
Javier González-Rosas & Iliana Zárate-Gutiérrez
Ageing and age-structural transition in India and its major states since 1961 to 2011
Mashkoor Ahmad & Prem Saxena
Population ageing in the Northern Territory: A 2016 update
Andrew Taylor / Demographic forecasting with POPGROUP
Ludi Simpson
New programs for regional population projections
Tom Wilson / Rapid fertility decline and the prospect of achieving demographic dividend in Timor-Leste
Udoy Saikia, Merve Hosgelen, Gour Dasvarma & James Chalmers
First generation births in Australia since 1981: which regions have benefitted and by whom?
Bernard Baffour, Ann Evans, Edith Gray & James Raymer / A century of footballers: a microcosm of modern Australia
Andrew Howe
An Endogenous Diffusion Model of Entry into First Marriage
Xiaoguang Jia
Stress impacts on mental health across the life course in urban environments
Maximilian Stiefel
1630-1730 / Cage of Death prize winners ‘receive’ their prize at Crocosaurus Cove
18:15-21:30 / Conference dinner
Venue TBA
Friday20th July
09:00-09:45 / Plenary 4Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2
Beyond the City and Above the Circle: Population trends and human development in the Arctic
Associate Professor Andrey Petrov, University of Northern Iowa
09:45-10:00 / Announcement of the winner of the Australian Population Studies data visualisation competition
Tom Wilson
10:00-10:20 / Morning tea
Level 2 foyer
10:20-12:00 / Concurrent sessions 7
7a: Health and Wellbeing
Meeting Room 1
Chair: Kate Golebiowska / 7b: Applied Population Projections
Meeting Room 2
Chair: Elin Charles-Edwards / 7c: Mortality
Meeting Room 3
Chair: TBA / 7d: Population Ageing in South East Asia
Meeting Room 4
Chair: Iwu Utomo
Exploring moderating patterns of risk for behavioural and health issues among adolescents and adults who have experienced parental incarceration
Michael Roettger
Risky health behaviour of young people in Greater Jakarta: smoking, alcohol, and drug use
Iwu Dwisetyani Utomo, Peter McDonald, Vu Son, Terence Hull & Ariance Utomo
Climate-induced displacement, impoverishment and health in mainland Bangladesh
Md. Rabiul Haque, Nick Parr & Salut Muhidin
Socio-demographic differences in the relationship between maternal work-family conflict and children’s mental health and behaviour in Australia
Meg Kingsley / How many Australians will have dementia in 40 years’ time? Challenges of projection modelling of chronic disease.
Laurie Brown
Projecting future demand for medically assisted fertility treatments
James Raymer, Qing Guan, Robert Norman, William Ledger & Georgina Chambers
The School Planning Assistance tool – how an integrated data analysis tool with machine learning is enabling effective decision-making for School Infrastructure NSW
Simon Massey & Martin Karm / Cause of death decomposition of cohort survival comparisons: TCAL
Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Timothy Adair
Healthy life expectancy among elderly people in China: an estimation using multistate life table method
Guogui Huang Fei Guo
The exploration of a method of making the life table in China
Li Jianxin, Liu Ruiping & Zhang Li / Ageing in rural Indonesia: health status, health behaviour and health care utilisation
Muhammad Absor
Men’s role in caregiving of older adults: a comparative study of rural Indonesia and urban Singapore
Bina Gubhaju, Iwu Utomo & Abhijit Visaria
Physical Functioning among Older Persons in Indonesia
Evi Arifin Aris Ananta
Distance Matters: Upward and Downward Exchange of Support between Elderly and Migrant and Non-migrant Children in Rural Indonesia
Nur Cahyadi
12:00-13:00 / Lunch and poster session
Level 2 foyer
Friday20th July
13:00-14:15 / TBATBA
14:15-14:45 / Conference Close
Waterfront rooms 1 and 2
Closing session
14:45-15:30 / Afternoon tea
Level 2 foyer
Waterfront rooms 1 and 2, Level 2 foyerMeeting Rooms 1, 2, 3 and 4 (Ground floor)