White Paper for National Science Foundation ASA FEWS Nexus 2015

White Paper for National Science Foundation ASA FEWS Nexus 2015

Big Outcome, Big Data, Big Research

The Louis Simpson Foundation/Africa Blue LLC; Deaton Institute, University of Missouri

Howard Davis, CEO, Louis Simpson Foundation and Africa Blue LLC

Brady Deaton, Chancellor Emeritus of the University of Missouri and Executive Director of the Deaton Institute for University Leadership in International Development

This White Paper advocates $15 to $20 million annual NSF funding of FEWS Development of Digital Science Technology Transfer Platform Consistent with 2016 USDA Recommended Research Priorities

To satisfy a 9 to 10 billion population by 2050, the multi-dimensional challenge to the United States and the world FEWS Nexus of approximately doubling the world’s production of food pivots on whether research and development efforts of ASA scientists in FEWS are efficiently adopted by a sufficient number of farmers in the United States and around the world.

The public good necessitates carrying out the National Science Foundation’s crucial role in assisting fundamental scientific research for development in increased efficiencies and breakthroughs in agricultural productivity, and that these efficiencies be implemented in the FEWS framework of global agriculture. Therefore, the crucial link in the optimal FEWS ongoing transformation requires assistance not only in agricultural research, but also in the scientific integration of all developing knowledge in optimizing the knowledge transfer of FEWS best science based practices for sustainable high/yield profitable agriculture. Knowledge adoption and diffusion is also a product of science which today optimally means scientifically optimized digital platforms which do not yet exist for the farmer. But farmers needs a robust and thorough universal medium of knowledge transfer for efficient adoption of the appropriate outcomes of NSF and other crucial institutionally funded research in the FEWS Nexus. Hence, the emergence in the agriculture research space of the implications of Big Data. As many noted ASA commentators in the Big Data collection field said at the Annual Conference of the American Society of Agronomy in Minneapolis in November this year, “We have so much micro data, but what do we do with it?” Of course for those of us at the nexus of FEWS, the ultimate Big Data challenge is to transform all the micro and macro data we have now or potentially can have in our Big Data world into functional decision making at the commercial or small holder farmer level. That is thesecond biggest challenge to effective NSF funding, how to enable FEWS Nexus agriculture researchthroughput tofarmers everywhere.

The Big Outcome Requires Funding Big Data Development, and Big Outcome Oriented NSF FEWS Research

Imagine a farmer has a Global Farming APP in which he/she can simply put his address and number of acres or hectares he/she is farming and any specific detail he/she wants to add like “organic” or GMO/non GMO over locally targeted defaults. On his/her Global Farming APP on his/her a tablet, laptop, or smartphone he/she instantly gets the recommendation for the most profitable crops in what farming system configuration, estimated profit of the farm in such system, and can instantly compare alternatives he/she can substitute on the Global Farming APP. His default will include crops in his area in demand consistent with his regions top crops by volume and based upon projected inputs and market price data automatically calculated for the next years’ crop cycle. Further, he is advised in what recommended planting configuration throughout the year he could/should adopt for maximum land index profitability with estimated planting and harvesting dates, later adjusted for real time climatic data (another Big Data stream), that will tell every farmer what crops to plant in the optimal land use and projected profits based upon current and future market conditions (another Big Data stream). These estimates will be continuously adjusted to reflect market decisions going forward. All other significant elements for his/her decision making can be and should be included in the APP. The farmer can also explore the multi-year projections if he/she moves from one farming system to another either abruptly or over time. For instance, moving from chemical- based to organic -based composted crop nutrients will have impacts on yield but also on pricing and costs going forward. Those tradeoffs would be presented on his Global Farmer APP. Input of farm specific soil conditions will override the soil automatically input into the system from national, state, and local soils map data (another Big Data base for streaming). And through technologies now adopted, the farmer can assess his nutrient needs by taking a picture of his crop, and the APP can see from its color what soil nutrient needs immediate application and in what quantities.

Consistent with and implementing the US government’s stated agricultural research priorities, The Louis Simpson Foundation and the Deaton Institute for University Leadership and International Development have conceived of a broad and fundamental need for, and recommendation of, an organizing Big Outcome goal for digital development of a FEWS dissemination digital platform which we have given the generic brand name of this Global Farming APP. It would be free to all farmers everywhere and initiated at least at the beginning by the government and perhaps permanently supported as a function of USDA/USAID. We recommend this priority of US funding because no private corporation is likely to optimize such a Big Data project for which the major data streams are now, or can be in the future, developed through targeted institutional collaboration of publically/NGO funded research.

Big Outcome to Drive Big Data Collection and Big FEWS NSF Research Priorities

In his Keynote Address to over 4,000 agricultural scientists, Sonny Ramaswamy, Director of the National Institute of Food and Agriculture of USDAcharged the American Society of Agronomy Meeting attendees in Minneapolis in November 2015 that their job as researchers was to remember communication of profit/loss results as the first priority of all research designed for the fundamental decision makers in the FEWS Nexus: the farmer.

Government funding supports the overwhelming preponderance of agricultural research and it’s dissemination in the United States and the world. It is a fundamental need and we believe responsibility of US government funded scientific research is to prioritize its dollars for a wide spectrum agricultural research framework but also to create a Big Data implementation framework for primary research and development of digital farmer platforms for technology adoption. We believe this will never develop from a private corporation for a variety of reasons, though some are now trying to monetize aspects of digital based precision agriculture tools. But these tools are not free, and many farmers are both technology resistant and very budget conscious.

Public funding for the Global Farmer APP concept is optimal for the following reasons:

1. The Big Outcome goal for digital development of such a Global Farming APP would be free to all farmers everywhere because no private corporation is likely to optimize such a Big Data projects for which the major data streams are developing now or can be through targeted institutional collaboration.
2. The institutional collaboration for research of farming systems improvements are not a part of the corporate research and development agenda of for profit corporations which lack, even the biggest among them, sufficient breadth and focus for a global farming systems application.
3. No corporation is close to the academic findings nor the research resources to optimize a particular farming system of scientific technique or breeder plant design to integrate this knowledge into a digital platform of the scope of the Global Farmer APP.
4. An industry player does not have the entire FEWS framework in mind as a research or advocacy priority. Corporations large and small have their own profit niche and for- profit mission as their preeminent priority. All researchers and suppliers in the private sector are by design biased to capture a particular market niche, even including a particular farming system, and driven in publication and advocacy in such a way that it can commercially exploit as compared to alternatives under which their business model fails. For this reason, corporations are not able to provide the scientific basis for universal farming systems digital communications.

FEWS Big ASA Research Needs Organizing Outcome Discipline

It is a fundamental need and we believe responsibility of US government funded scientific research to prioritize its dollars for a wide spectrum of agricultural research exploiting all the avenues of science to maximize the potential of the FEWS Nexus, as well as develop targeted Big Data streams in a format and research design and data collection consistency with the view of creating a universal platform for efficient farmer adoption of science based FEWS efficiencies. All US government funding priorities should now be for not only knowledge development of best practices, but also the digital platforms development for optimal FEWS Nexus technology adoption by 21 century farmers.

The Global Farming APPconcept could/should be the Big Outcome for NSF and other agency Big Data development and is an idea that Is not only possible, but a necessity for focus in research consistencies and research dollar optimization. Of course, data research consistency and effectiveness has always been a priority in all USDA and USAID, as well as NSF, funding. What is needed is a central overriding practical outcome objective, a Big Outcome for the collection of Big Data, which flows from Big Research in FEWS Optimization. This Big Outcome that is a dissemination outcome platform that will ensure the uptake of research recommendations as actionable data for the farmer.

This Global Farming APP is a long term project but should be considered a high priorityin our view for many important objectives of government, university, agribusiness, farmers and society in America and the world. But it is very important and useful as the challenges and opportunities for Big Data collection across all research platforms and funding sources require a practical outcomes format for reporting results, and also as a focus for all agricultural research questions in such a way as to make every element of research relevant to a cost and economic monetization and, therefore,relevant for farmer adoption.