Jeffrey S. Morrison, Page 4
Jeffrey S. Morrison
4787 Grand Heron Court · Norcross, Georgia 30092
(770) 242-8836 ·
www.forecastingsolutions.com
www.linkedin.com/pub/jeffrey-morrison/2/576/66
SUMMARY
A results-oriented Analytic Leader, with extensive experience in econometric modeling, credit scoring, portfolio forecasting and stress testing, data mining, software development, SAS programming, statistical analysis, risk and response analytics, and new product forecasting. Identifies custom and generic analytic solutions across all levels of an organization to maximize financial returns and mitigate losses. A technically-oriented performer, with extensive managerial and customer-facing experience in solving complex business problems. Builds teams and encourages diverse feedback in complex situations to identify best solutions and achieve long-term goals.
EXPERIENCE
Alvarez and Marsal, Atlanta, Georgia
Director of Analytics, 2013-current
· Developed consulting analytics surrounding PD and LGD models, stress testing, and forecasting services using SAS, VBA and Excel.
· Led the development and implementation of credit scoring software and other analytic accelerators related to consumer and commercial modeling.
· Developed econometric loss models using SNL data for Commercial, Real Estate, Mortgage, Home Equity, and Commercial Real Estate for banks between 5 and 15 billion dollars in assets.
TRANSUNION, Atlanta, Georgia
Senior Manager/Director, Research and Econometrics, 2004-2012
Led revenue-generating custom and generic analytic consulting projects for financial, insurance, and telecommunication industries. Directed econometric research and designed new forecasting platforms to enhance modeling efforts. Developed and managed econometric forecasting models for over 60 credit trends across a wide variety of portfolios, including bank card, mortgage, and auto. Led staff of statistical modelers responsible for developing credit and marketing scoring solutions. Outlined segmentation methodology and practical implementation procedures for single-sided and double-sided Tobit models, survival analysis, and variable clustering. Developed training materials for credit scoring and other analytical methods. Held responsibility for hiring and training new statisticians.
· Led the development of an early warning forecasting system for one of the nation’s largest credit card providers, using credit and economic data that resulted in over $500,000 in revenue and $120,000-plus annually.
· Designed and developed a system of simultaneous equations to forecast national credit conditions.
· Managed and mentored a staff of seven-to-ten modelers and programmers.
· Authored a variety of byline articles on credit scoring, stress testing, and portfolio forecasting to support thought leadership, press releases, and sales initiatives.
· Provided analytic regulatory support related to discrimination within minority classes.
· Created analytics for the mortgage division by developing a home price repeat sales index to support property valuation.
· Developed branch-level forecasting models for retail banking, which were used to set sales goals across geographies.
· Designed and developed an interactive modeling system to integrate scoring methodologies and increase efficiency of modeling efforts.
· Served as special Basel consultant and economics liaison for econometric forecasting projects.
SUNTRUST BANKS, Atlanta, Georgia
Vice President of Modeling, Credit Risk Management, 2001-2004
Developed and coordinated analytics and quantitative modeling associated with risk rating system as mandated by Basel accord. Worked with all lines of business, including residential mortgage, consumer, business banking, mid-commercial, and large commercial to integrate system requirements and establish viable and reliable risk ratings for RAROC and reserve requirements. Created scoring and recovery models for mortgage and consumer lines of business. Introduced Tobit modeling and survival analysis to credit risk management. Set methods and procedures for model estimation, validation, and data requirements. Assisted in development of a credit risk management data warehouse in SAS. Developed modeling documentation and support material for annual review.
· Created modeling platform in SAS and Visual Basic 6.0, enabling efficient estimation of linear, logistic, and Tobit models.
· Developed PD, LGD, and stress test Basel-compliant models.
· Defined requirements for Basel-compliant data warehouse to support regulatory requirements.
ADDITIONAL EXPERIENCE
EQUIFAX CORPORATION, Atlanta, Georgia, Assistant Vice President of Modeling, 1995-2001. Developed numerous regression modeling projects, including custom risk models, response and prospect models, and general-purpose demand forecasting models for business applications. Designed income predictor, generating over $5,000,000 annually. Directed stress test services line of business for strategic customers, using econometric applications and simulation techniques. Created training software for internal employee development and external sales initiatives.
AT&T CORPORATION, Atlanta, Georgia, Manager and Internal Consultant, Statistics and Econometrics, 1987-1995. Prepared strategic decision support models for market retention and customer satisfaction. Created quantitative studies to measure market potential and demand for new and existing products. Developed choice models to estimate purchase probabilities for target marketing and channel effectiveness. Managed market research projects for quantitative modeling. Prepared statistical estimates of advertising effectiveness and segmentation. Served as quantitative skills instructor for 300 forecasting personnel.
SPECIAL ACHIEVEMENTS
· Author of the Year for Best Series - The RMA Journal, 2005
· Developer of Forecasting Solutions’ Online Analytic Tool Kit for the Worldwide Web, Recommended by Quantminds.com, February 15, 2010 (www.jeffreysmorrison.net)
· Inductee in the Georgia Tech Athletic Hall of Fame for Gymnastics in 1986
EDUCATION
GEORGIA STATE UNIVERSITY, Atlanta, Georgia
M.S., Business Economics
GEORGIA TECH, Atlanta, Georgia
B.S., Economics
B.S., Industrial Management
TECHNICAL SKILLS
Data Analysis, Pooled Cross-Section Time Series Regression, Multivariate Statistics, Logistics Regression, Classification and Regression Trees (CART), ARIMA Forecasting, Econometric Modeling, Loss Given Default (LGD) Modeling, Probability of Default (PD) Modeling, Survival Analysis, Poisson and Negative Binomial Regression, Portfolio Forecasting, Stress Testing, Factor Analysis, Principal Component Analysis, New Product Forecasting, Tobit Regression, SAS, EVIEWS, Visual Basic 6.0, VB.net, VS2005, PowerPoint, Excel
PRESENTATION HIGHLIGHTS
RMA Retail Risk Conference, “Econometric Trends in the Credit Industry,” 2010
Telecommunications Risk Management Conference, “Economic Perspectives and Credit Trends for the Mortgage Sector,” 2010
Telecommunications Risk Management Conference, “The Impact of the Recession on Consumer Delinquency,” 2008
SEUG Conference, “A Hybrid Modeling System for Basel II Requirements,” 2003
Best Practices Forecasting Conference, 2002
International Forecasting Symposium, 2001
Best Practices Forecasting Conference, 2001
International Forecasting Symposium, 2001
Strategic Planning and Financial Forum Conference, 2000
Best Practices Forecasting Conference, 2000
Business Forecasting Best Practices Conference, 1999
SUGI Conference “GUI Front End for a Credit Scoring System,” 1999
Business Forecasting Best Practices Conference, 1998
ASA Conference, “Forecasting Insurance Claims," 1997
GIS Conference, "GIS in the Credit Industry," 1997
Business Forecasting Best Practices Conference, 1997
Business Forecasting Best Practices Conference, 1996
International Forecasting Conference, 1995
National Telecommunications Forecasting Conference, 1994
National Telecommunications Forecasting Conference Speaker of the Year, 1992
PROFESSIONAL PAPERS
Understanding and Predicting Changing Credit Trends Using Advanced Forecasting Techniques. The RMA Journal. Pending 2013.
Predicting Auto Insurance Risk. Insurance News Net. Pending 2013.
Leveraging Aggregated Credit Data in Portfolio Forecasting and Collections Scoring. The RMA Journal. October 2010.
Marrying Credit Scoring and Time Series Data. The RMA Journal. March 2010.
Forecasting Portfolio Performance in an Uncertain Economy. The RMA Journal. July 2009.
Credit Decisions in a Changing Economic Environment. The RMA Journal. September 2008.
Controlling Risk Across the Enterprise: Don’t Forget the Marketing Function. The RMA Journal. October 2005.
Modeling Nonlinear Data with Artificial Neural Networks: Common Problems, Practical Solutions. The RMA Journal. August 2004.
Modeling Time to Default: Common Problems, Practical Solutions. The RMA Journal. July 2004.
Special Topics in Validation: Common Problems, Practical Solutions. The RMA Journal. June 2004.
Modeling Strategies: Common Problems, Practical Solutions. The RMA Journal. May 2004.
Missing Data: Common Problems, Practical Solutions. The RMA Journal. April 2004.
Stress Testing: Preparing for Modeling Requirements in Basel II. The RMA Journal. September 2003.
Putting It All Together: Preparing for Modeling Requirements in Basel II. The RMA Journal. July/August 2003.
Model Validation: Preparing for Modeling Requirements in Basel II. The RMA Journal. June 2003.
Model Development: Preparing for Modeling Requirements in Basel II. The RMA Journal. May 2003.
Introduction to Survival Analysis in Business. Journal of Business Forecasting: Methods and Systems. Winter 2003.
A Hybrid Modeling Platform to Meet Basel II Requirements in Banking. Southeast SAS Users’ Conference, September 2003.
Modeling Fundamentals. Visions. July 2002.
A Balanced Approach to Forecasting Credit Risk. Journal of Business Forecasting: Methods and Systems. Summer, 2001.
Innovation in a Consulting Environment. Visions. 2000.
Translating Penetration Estimates into Long Run Sales. Visions. April 2000.
What-If Analysis and Prospect Lists. Visions. October 1999.
Introduction to New Product Forecasting. Visions. July 1999.
An Interactive GUI Front-End for a Credit Scoring Modeling System. SUGI National Presentation. June 1999.
How to Stress Test Your Credit Portfolio. Journal of Business Forecasting: Methods and Systems. Spring 1999.
New Product Forecasting Finds a Home in Telecommunications Credit Scoring. Journal of Business Forecasting: Methods and Systems. Fall 1998.
Forecasting Aggregate Portfolio Behavior, Using Geographically-Based Credit Information. Equifax Decision Solutions White Paper. September 1998.
Introducing C.A.R.T. onto the Forecasting Process. Journal of Business Forecasting: Methods and Systems. Spring 1998.
Targeting a New Product Forecast. Marketing News. November 1997.
Using Tobit Regression to Predict Nonpayment Rates. Journal of Business Forecasting: Methods and Systems. Summer, 1997.
Forecasting Insurance Claims with an Exploration of Superior Alternatives. American Statistical Association. 1996.
How to use Diffusion Models in New Product Forecasting. Journal of Business Forecasting: Methods and Systems. Summer 1996.
Target Marketing with Logit Regression. Journal of Business Forecasting: Methods and Systems. Winter 1995-96.
Life-Cycle Approach to New Product Forecasting. Journal of Business Forecasting: Methods and Systems. Summer 1995.