Investing
7.1InvestmentBasics
Activity
ReadtheArticleattachedattheendofthisworksheetbeforecompletingthisactivity.
UnderstandingInflation
Fromthepreviousresources,you’veseenthatsavingmoneyinabankaccountthatearnslessininterest(ex:0.75%) thantheeconomyexperiencesinflation(avg:3%)leavesyouwithlessspendingpowerinthefuture.Ifyousave$500inasavingsaccountnow,you’llbeabletobuyLESSwithitin2025thanyoucouldtoday.That’swhatmakesINVESTINGanimportantpartofyourlong-termfinancialhealth.Let’sexploreinflationalittlefurtherusingthisInflationCalculator fromtheBureauofLaborStatistics:
Supposeyou’reheadingofftocollegenextyearsomewherecold,andyouwanttopurchaseaNorthFaceparkafor
$350.
1.Fromeachpaycheckofyourafterschooljob,you’reabletosave$45towardthecoat.Yougetpaidtwiceamonth.HowmanymonthswillittakeyoutosaveenoughmoneytobuyyourNorthFacejacket?
2.Usingthisstrategy,howwillinflationimpactyourabilitytobuythejacket?
3.You’rethinking$350isalotofmoneyforahighschoolstudent,andyouunderstandthat,duetoinflation,thatsamejacketwouldhavecostlessthan$350inthepast.Usethecalculatortodeterminehowmuchthesamejacket,haditbeenavailable,wouldhavecosttheyearyouwereborn.
4.Howmuchcheaperwasthecoattheyearyouwereborn?
5.Youtakeyouranswertoquestion4toyourparentandsay,“Hey,whydidn’tyouthinkaheadandbuymethiscoattheyearIwasborn???Lookatallthemoneywecouldhavesaved!”Asidefromthefactthatyourparenthadnowayofknowingyou’dwantaNorthFacealmosttwodecadeslater,yourparentdisagreeswithyourlogicandsaystherewouldn’thavebeenanysavingsbybuyingthecoatinyourbirthyear.Whyisyourparentmakingthisclaim?
6.Let’ssay,insteadofbuyingyouthecoatwhenyouwereborn,yourparentputmoney,equaltoyouranswerinquestion3,intoasavingsaccountthatearned1%interest.Wouldyoubeabletobuyyourcoattodaywiththosefunds?Whyorwhynot?Youcanusethiscompoundinterestcalculator ifyouneedto.
7.So,ifyourparentsomehowknew,thedayyouwereborn,thatyou’dsomedaywantaNorthFaceparkaforyourfirstyearofcollege,whatwouldheorshehaveneededtodo,financially,tohave$350forthecoattoday?
8.You’rethinkingalotaboutinflation,andyouthinkitmightbeagoodideatosetasidethemoneytobuyafancyleathercouchforyourfirsthome,whichyou’dliketopurchase10yearsafteryougraduatefromhighschool.Whydoestheinflationcalculatornottellyouwhattheinflationadjustedpricewillbe10yearsfromnow?
BONUS:TheNorthFaceisavailableacrossCanada,andinpartsofEurope,LatinAmerica,andAsia.WouldtheinflationcalculatorfromtheBureauofLaborStatisticsworktocalculatethehistoricalpriceofthatsameNorthFacejacketinothercountries?Whyorwhynot?Dosomeonlineresearchtosupportyouranswer.
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TheImpactofInflationonSavings
FEBRUARY5,2013BYTIMMCMAHON — LEAVEACOMMENT
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Theobviousimpactofinflationonyour
savingsis thatthepurchasingpoweriserroded.Thismeansthatifyou stash$100under themattresstodayandinflationis3% peryearwhenyou comebackayearfromnowyour$100willbuy3%lessstuff. Putanotherwayyouwouldneed$103 to buythesameamount of goods ayearlater. Whenyouextendthis to10yearsyoumightthinkthatitwouldmeanthat youwouldneed$130to buythesameamountof goodsbut becauseoftheeffects ofcompoundingyou would actuallyneed$134.39.You
canusetheRetirementPlanningCalculatortocalculatetheimpactofinflation on your savings.
Astimegoesontheimpactof“only”3%inflationcompoundsmakingitevenworse.Even thoughhewasintimatelyacquainted with workings of theatombomb,Einsteincalledcompoundinterestthemostpowerfulforceon earth.
Unfortunately,compoundinflationis just likecompoundinterest workingagainstyou. Whenyoulookat theeffects of 3%inflationonyour savingsover25yearswefindthatpriceswill havemorethandoubled and youwillneed$209.38to buythesamebasketof goodsthat $100wouldbuy25yearsearlier.
InflationCausesUncertainty
Becausethevalueofyourmoneyisconstantlychanging,thismakesplanningforretirementespeciallydifficultsinceitislikeshooting atamovingtarget.Especially,sinceyoudon’tevenknowfor surewhat theannualinflation ratewill be.
Inflation-TheLeakingBucket
Overthelongrunsince1913inflationhasaveragedmorethan 3%(3.24%)so onaverageithastakenlessthan 22yearsforpricestodouble.Soasyouaresaving it isliketrying tofillabucketwhile3%is leakingout. Sotherefore,youhaveto putitinfaster thanitleaks out.
WhatAboutInterestonYourSavings?
Sofarwehaveonlylookedatsavingsthatwereputunderthemattress. Whatifyoudeposittheminthebank?Won’tthathelp?Iftheinterestrateisequaltotheinflationratethenitwouldbelikehavingasmallfaucetpouringwaterbackintoyourbucketat exactlytherateitwas leaking out.
Unfortunately,currentbankinterestratesareat historicallylowlevels,sothereisonlyadripgoingintoyourbankbucketfrom interestandsothelevelinthatbuckethas beendecliningalmost asfastasthemoneyunderthemattress.
Dependingon what youinvestin,someinvestments maydobetteror worsecomparedtoinflation.Commoditieslikegoldareoftenconsideredaninflationhedgeand over extremelylongperiodsgoldandsilverdoretaintheirpurchasingpower.But often duringtheshortrundistortionscanoccurandcausetheir valuetobecomeoveror under-priced. SeeIsGold anInflationHedge?Overthelast15yearsinflation hasbeenrelativelylowandgoldandsilverhaveoutperformedtheeffectsofinflation.But thatmaynotalwaysbethecase.Themajordisadvantageofcommodities is thattheydonotprovidea current incomeflowandsoyouareentirelydependentonappreciation keepingupwith inflation.
Realestateisanothercommoditythathasbeenthoughttodowellatkeepingupwithinflationwhichwastrueformanyyearsuntilthemarketbecameoverheatedandrealestatevaluesplunged.Solikeeverythingbuyingattherightpricepointisstillimportant.Likegoldifyouownyourownhomeitisnotproducingincome(althoughitmaybesavingyourent)butinvestmentpropertiescanprovidesomeprotectionagainstinflationandincomeatthesametime.
Whataboutstocks?
Onceagainthepriceofcompaniesshouldtheoreticallygrowsothatthecompanyretainsitsvalueagainstinflation.Butwhenyouinvestinstocksothervariablesareintroducedincludingstockspeculation(boomandbust),theabilityofthecompany’smanagementtodealwithchange,changingmarkettastesforthecompany’sproductsetc.
Quiteoftenstockswilloutperforminflationallowingyourinvestmenttomaintainitsvalueagainstinflationbutitisstillpossiblethatyouwillgetinatthetopandlosemoneyovertheshorttermorthatanyparticularcompanywillunder-performtheoverallmarket.Somestockspaydividendsinadditiontothepossibilityforstockpricegrowth.Stockdividendswouldactmuchliketheinteresthelpingtofillyourbucket,whiletheoreticallythestockpriceitselfshouldkeepupwithinflation.
WhataboutBonds?
Bondsaredebtobligationssimilartoputtingyourmoneyinabank.Youareonlyguaranteedtogetbackafixednumberofdollarsattheendofthelifeofthebond.Historically,bondsareconsideredtodopoorlyduringtimesofhighinflationbecauseofthis.Intimesofmoderateinflationifthe“couponrate”i.e.theinterestratethebondispayingishighenoughitcancounteracttheeffectsofinflation.
WhataboutInflationIndexedBonds?
Inflationindexedbondsaresupposedtobedesignedtotakeinflationintoconsiderationandcompensatethebondownerfortheeffectsofinflation.SeeHowHaveInflationIndexedBonds ReallyPerformed?formoreinformation.
OtherFactors
Oneoftheotherfactorsthatcanaffecttherealreturnyouexperienceaftertakingintoconsiderationtheeffectsofinflationistheeffectoftaxes.Inthefirstscenarioifyouhadputthemoneyunderthemattresstaxeswouldhavenoeffect.The$100wasaftertaxincomeandbecausetherewasnoadditionalincome,taxeswouldnotbeafactor.Inthebankscenariotaxeswouldbeminimalsinceinterestratesarecurrentlysosmallthemoneywouldhave
earnedverylittleandsotherewouldn’tbemuchtaxdue.