Dr. M. W. Wadsley
Richmond, Tasmania
Submission on Tasmanian Energy Strategy - Restoring Tasmania’s Energy Advantage
C. P. Snow, in the 1959 Rede Lecture entitled "The Two Cultures and the Scientific Revolution", passed the observation: "A good many times I have been present at gatherings of people who, by the standards of the traditional culture, are thought highly educated and who have with considerable gusto been expressing their incredulity at the illiteracy of scientists. Once or twice I have been provoked and have asked the company how many of them could describe the Second Law of Thermodynamics. The response was cold: it was also negative. Yet I was asking something which is the scientific equivalent of: Have you read a work of Shakespeare's?" The Laws of Thermodynamics govern the transformation and use of energy. They are fundamental and cannot be circumvented in any situation, even by political decree or market economics. They represent practical limits on behaviour. The Second Law of Thermodynamics indicates that a minimum quantity of energy is required to achieve a particular task and hence gives the ultimate limit to improvements in efficiency. There is a minimum quantity of energy required to manufacture aluminium or zinc. There is a minimum quantity of energy required to illuminate a given area to required degree. There is a minimum quantity of energy required to pump water up a given height. Combustion engines have thermodynamically limited efficiency. I do not believe that the rules governing understanding of energy are better understood over fifty five years on from Snow's comment. I challenge those who are determining Tasmania's Energy Strategy to personally consider their understanding of energy fundamentals.
I wish to point out that the words "carbon dioxide" are not mentioned once in the strategy document. The closest reference is "low carbon future". The carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is increasing at an accelerating rate. This is not the result of a model. This is measured at Cape Grim, Tasmania. The action of carbon dioxide in causing water "acidification" with all its implications is not mentioned in the strategy document. The document indicates that "climate change" policy is to be divorced from energy strategy and is to be considered as a separate topic. Given the potential economic costs of acidification and climate change I believe that it is incredible that the Tasmanian Government's advisors believe that these issues can be separated from energy strategy. I believe that unless these issues are addressed urgently the other issues mentioned in the vision, outcome and action statements of the draft strategy will shrink to insignificance.
The Tasmanian population has demonstrated its willingness to provide the capital for increased electrical energy generation through their embracing of photovoltaic technology, despite receiving no premium in feed-in tariff as occurred in other states. Government has responded by actually lowering the feed-in tariff, an effective penalty. The unit feed-in tariff provided to new installers of photovoltaic system when compared with the unit tariff paid when receiving electricity from the grid implies that about three quarters of the cost of a domestic consumer's electrical energy is linked to the cost of its delivery from the generator to the consumer. It gives the consumer a differential of about 16c per kWh to fund installing their own energy storage system. Given the current trend in the price of batteries, it will only be a few years before these systems become self-funding. I believe that it would be significantly better for Tasmania to have the money that might be invested in importing and installing these system directed to employment in manufacturing enterprises. Any attempt to force a person who has an off-grid electrical system, but who have part of the electrical grid passing their property, to pay an availability fee should be strongly resisted.
I believe that the Tasmanian Government should offer energy bonds to persons seeking income from capital in order to fund any energy-related developments in Tasmania. Priority access to these bonds should be given to Tasmanians then other Australians then overseas investors so that the income earned from these investments is more likely to stay in Tasmania. As an owner of a self-managed superannuation fund I would welcome this investment option.
I believe that the Tasmanian Government should investigate becoming directly involved in the shipping of petroleum products to Tasmania. The market mechanism is obviously not working with retail price differentials of more than 20c per litre for unleaded fuel across Bass Strait. All Tasmanian enterprises involving transport are penalised by this amount relative to similar enterprises in urban mainland Australia. This is to Tasmania's energy disadvantage.
I believe that gas (methane) should not be considered to be a growth fuel in Tasmania. The gas available to Tasmanians is a non-renewable fossil fuel piped from other states. Unless its use is replacing other more expensive fuel imports or is used to produce exports of higher value, methane imports detract from Tasmania's economic well being. Methane has been promoted as a transition fuel by vested interests in that it might be used to fill the gap between use of coal and use of renewable energy. However methane is still 75% carbon by mass. Given the continuing accelerating grown in the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere to which methane combustion contributes I do not believe that a period of transition is feasible and the immediate implementation of emission-free energy technologies is required. As well as being a "greenhouse gas" because of its absorption of infrared radiation, methane's combustion contributes carbon dioxide to the atmosphere causing water acidification and atmospheric warming. Tasmania is a relatively small coal user. Use of methane should be restricted to situations where the advantages are demonstrable. Tasmanians should be encouraged to produce methane from bio-sources and feed it into the grid. It has been demonstrated on a laboratory scale that methane can be produced by the hydrogen reduction of metal carbonates. The resulting metal oxides or hydroxides can absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to regenerate the metal carbonates. Tasmanians should participate in the development of this or similar technologies to produce a genuinely sustainable economy.
I believe that Tasmania should develop alternatives to asphalt road surfaces so that dependence on this petroleum by-product is removed.
Tasmania should encourage development of alternatives to limestone-based cements so that the related carbon dioxide emissions are eliminated.
Tasmania has significant occurrence of basic and ultra-basic rocks. These rocks are able to chemically react with carbon dioxide to form stable metal carbonates. I believe that Tasmania should develop related technology so that it can obtain "carbon credits" in the future.
I believe that in protecting vulnerable consumers, support should come direct from government and should not come through energy suppliers. I believe that forcing energy suppliers to look after vulnerable consumers introduces distortions in markets causing unwanted economic consequences.
"Growth" is a word that frequently occurs in the draft strategy. I believe that there can be growth in prosperity and well-being without growth in population. It should be obvious that the world has attained or exceeded a sustainable population. Tasmania should become a show-case of how to succeed with a stable population.
I believe that Tasmania's connection to the national electricity market has contributed to destroying Tasmania's energy advantage and is forcing Tasmanians to adopt punitive measures. Tasmania's distributed hydroelectric generation system is able to rapidly adjust to changes in consumer demand and to changes in the input rate of other generation modes such as wind and photo-voltaics. Yet Tasmania is being asked to consider regulatory measures, such as smart meters, that are only needed by systems that have massive localised thermal electric power generation or have extended, very long transmission lines. Tasmania is effectively penalised because of excessive use of air-conditioners on mainland Australia, in part related to climate change. The latitude and island nature of Tasmania is ignored. I believe that rather than considering a second Bass-Link connector, Tasmania should consider severing the existing link or negotiating more advantageous special terms for its connection.
The draft energy strategy does not acknowledge that electric vehicles are already commercially available. The existence of commercially available plug-in hybrid electric vehicles as a means of transition from petroleum fuelled to fully electric vehicles is not acknowledged in the draft report. These hybrid vehicles are already cost and performance competitive for certain consumers. The Tasmanian Government should modify planning laws to encourage inclusion of electric vehicle charging points in new and existing structures. The inclusion of an electric vehicle's electrical energy storage capability as a means of managing peak demand should be included in energy planning.
Tasmania has the opportunity to develop small-scale energy generation and to develop innovative, non-invasive energy transmission technologies, such as wireless transfer by microwave or laser technology. Tasmania used to be very nimble. It was only about one year between initial decision and full operation when the Deloraine hydroelectric power station and distribution network were installed around 1906.
It is encouraging that the Draft Strategy recognises the issue of Tasmania's energy security. I believe that consideration of energy security should be extended to the production and distribution of food-stuffs and other necessities. I was resident in Melbourne in the 1970's when a transport workers strike stopped delivery of petroleum products. Super-market shelves were emptied of food within two days. Another problem occurred when an electrical supply difficulty prevented pumping of fresh water and sewage for large urban areas. The Bureau of Meteorology is not considered to be an essential service with respect to electrical energy supply yet it is vital in supplying information to emergency services. Much energy security planning seems to only focus on emergency services such as police, ambulance and fire. I understand that Australia and Tasmania do not have the three months storage capacity of petroleum fuels mandated by the International Energy Agency. I believe the current oil surplus is temporary and availability will be restricted and prices will rise within a few years. The finite nature of oil reservoirs and the increasing cost of their exploitation will see to that.
I believe that through education and innovation and its decentralised nature, Tasmania has the opportunity to demonstrate small scale, efficient, nimble energy technology appropriate to a stable population size. This expertise could be marketed to the world. I hope that the final Energy Strategy document at least recognises the possibilities.
Michael Wadsley
February, 2015