Innovations of the Future
Economic difficulty can inspire extraordinary innovation. We asked futurists what they'd like to see arise from these difficult times
By Damian Joseph
"History reminds us that at every moment of economic upheaval and transformation, this nation has responded with bold action and big ideas." As President Barack Obama addressed a joint session of Congress on Tuesday, Feb. 24, he took a moment to look back, pointing to the innovations that have arisen from times of difficulty: the railroad tracks, laid across the country in the midst of the civil war; the public high school system that emerged from the Industrial Revolution; the GI Bill that sent a generation to college. Obama's theme was clear: Times of economic difficulty can inspire extraordinary innovation. And now, even as the markets continue their roller-coaster ride, he described a time "to put in place tough, new common-sense rules of the road so that our financial market rewards drive and innovation and punishes shortcuts and abuse."
We talked to several trend-watchers and futurists about the kind of innovations they expect to come from this recession. Along with Obama, they focused on themes of energy and health care, with technology and computing rounding out their wish lists. All saw the opportunity to reframe problems to come up with radically new solutions. "There's a reason why they call them market corrections," says author and futurist David Zach. "Things that don't work, are inefficient, out of date, or bloated often need to be bypassed." He sees this scenario developing in realms such as the Web, with access to high-speed Internet overcoming geographical barriers to allow ever greater marketplace participation.
On the energy front, the big advances will be in biofuels and renewable sources. Giant turbines will harness the power of ocean currents. Biofuels that won't drive up global food prices are being made. Technology will repurpose the energy from the human body to recharge our cell phones and music players. Super-charged batteries that hold more juice and require fewer charges will power electric cars and laptops.
Innovations in Health Care
In health care, self-diagnostic technologies that can be used at home will replace costly doctor visits. Heavy, unwieldy medical equipment that until now has been laboriously wheeled around hospital floors is being transformed into portable machinery that can be used at home or in a remote village. New nanotech and biotech drugs will cure decimating diseases. And the health-care system itself will be overhauled, with digitization of patient records cutting costs and increasing transparency and reliability of care. Glen Hiemstra, author and founder of Futurist.com, wants to see universal coverage, while allowing folks to purchase insurance privately. "Health care is at the center of almost all business-labor issues. Moving away from employer-provided health care will free us like almost nothing else I can think of," he says.
Given the subprime debacle, the ensuing economic meltdown, and the current ups and downs of the markets, it's perhaps not surprising that many of our experts are predicting drastic changes in the world's financial systems. "I think we're going to see the creation of new instruments and tools to value, trade, and share wealth and currency," says trend-spotter and journalist Josh Spear.
Of course, longed-for innovations don't always make it to the market. Radically new ideas for transportation were on most of the futurists' wish lists, but the chances of a high-speed cross-country train within the U.S. still seem slim (we're also still waiting on that flying car). But, as vehicle sharing and trackable, more reliable, and eco-powered buses gain popularity, chances are that better urban transit will become a reality.
Looking into the future is uncertain, messy work, but if businesses view the current economic crisis as an opportunity to innovate, we may still be marveling at these breakthroughs decades from now.
Damian Joseph is an innovation and design writer for BusinessWeek, based in the Chicago bureau.
20 Most Important Inventions of the Next 10 Years
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Innovation from Recession
Damian Joseph
Things are looking pretty bleak right now. But, the saying goes, necessity is the mother of invention. So BusinessWeek asked several futurists, including Futurist.com's Glen Hiemstra, consultant David Zach, and author Howard Rheingold, to describe what they'd like to see arise from the current downturn. Notably, our experts didn't think of innovation merely in terms of products or services. These ideas will change the way humans interact with the earth—and with each other.
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Ocean-Driven Hydropower
Till now, hydropower has mostly been generated at dams. Now, turbines around the world are being designed to harness the power of the ocean. Blue Energy Canada is close to commercializing a turbine that captures energy from ocean currents and already has purchase power agreements in India, Indonesia, and New Zealand. With a set of subway-size floating turbines, Pelamis Wave Power is converting wave power into electricity off the coast of Scotland.
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Miniaturized Medical Equipment
Truly tiny implants that can test, diagnose, and even alert doctors to problems with their patients will replace costly routine visits. Researchers in the Netherlands say they've developed a pill that can be loaded with medicine and programmed to travel to a specific part of the body to unload it. A pen-size device is being developed at the University of Texas that can detect skin cancer without the need for a biopsy.
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3D Printing
It has been around for a while, but 3D printing is becoming more affordable, which in itself will unleash a host of new inventions and applications, pushing beyond prototypes and models. Scientists have been experimenting using the technology to reconstruct human tissue.
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Even Smarter Apps
Mobile applications can already identify what song is playing, point you to a nearby restaurant, or manage your social networking utilities, but that was just the start. The relatively low cost of entry and the speed at which an app hits or misses creates a environment ripe for breakthrough innovation. What's next could be the first big business to arise from the downturn.
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Next-Generation Bio-Fuels
The first round of biofuels caused a spike in global food prices. Now companies are developing the next generation from non-edible sources. Scientists at ADM (ADM) are creating cellulosic ethanol from corn stover and other companies are experimenting with switchgrass, woodchips, and miscanthus.
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Electric Avenues
While Detroit struggles, would-be automakers are getting in on the action, with a host of electric vehicles now in various states of readiness to roll. Shai Agassi's Better Place is proposing a network of stations where drivers of electric cars can exchange dying batteries for ones freshly charged. For its part, GM's (GM) Chevy Volt is due in 2010.
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Truly "On-Demand" Entertainment
As entertainment technologies converge, we're better able to watch, listen, or read anything we want any time we want. The Netflix Player by Roku streams an ever-growing library of Netflix and Amazon content directly to the TV. Apple TV offers both shows and movies for purchase or rental. Open-source media software, Boxee, aims to run on all third-party streaming boxes and plans to release its own box, too. Soon, these systems won't only be for the alpha geeks.
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Nanotech Computing
In Chicago, two separate teams recently made breakthroughs that dramatically shrink the size of electronics. One team's new transistors allow for processors that will make silicon chips seem gigantic. The other came up with film material that can store the equivalent of 250 DVDs on the space of a quarter.
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Cure for Cancer
Huge advances are being made that could some day eradicate cancer, AIDS, brain tumors, prostate cancer, and other diseases. Nanotech medicine provides a more targeted delivery to cells than chemotherapy or other treatments, which means doctors can lower dosages to minimize side effects.
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Learning to "Feel the Force"
New toys will hark back to the 1980s, when science and math ruled the store shelves, but will have a futuristic twist. This Star Wars "Force Trainer" toy, which comes out in July 2009, measures a child's brain waves. The child then concentrates to control the ball in the tube.
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Body Power
Researchers are coming up with ways to rechannel the body's natural energies to power electrical devices. Scientists at the Energy Dept.'s Berkeley Lab announced breakthroughs in silicon nano-wire based converters that could let someone charge a cell phone with body heat or charge an iPod through walking.
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Smarter Crowdsourcing
Harnessing the power of the crowd has been a big trend in recent years: See Wikipedia. The concept will become more sophisticated, as movies, video games, advertising and translating services are now all being developed to capitalize on thousands of hours of freely given labor.
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Social Media Literacy
Sure, many people are deeply embedded in the world of social networks, but much of the world's population still couldn't tell a forum from a wiki. This will change, and as social media applications become assumed, rather than newsworthy, corporations would be wise to ensure their employees are up to speed.
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New Banking Systems
Although many blame financial innovation for getting us into the current mess, experts agree on the need for a far-reaching overhaul of the global financial system, from the individual level right up to the top of the tree.
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Pop-Up Businesses
Futurist David Zach, who consults with companies such as 3M (MMM) and Abbott Labboratories (ABT) on emerging business trends, sees success for companies that tackle a single project before disbanding. They will assemble teams, rent temporary office spaces, and satisfy a certain need. When the job's over, they scatter, and all move on to a new project.
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Reformed Urban Transit Systems
In cities such as Chicago, technology enables commuters to track the (natural gas-powered) buses. Vehicle-sharing companies like Zipcar and iGo (IGOI) are gaining momentum, and bicycle sharing services are becoming popular. European cities have already had success in creating networks of eco-friendly cars, bikes, and trains for commuters to share, but other parts of the world are lagging. This will change.
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Cure for Alzheimer's
Biotech drugs, which are made from living cells, provide some of the best efforts at curing diseases such as diabetes, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and HIV. Recently, the Food & Drug Administration approved a drug made from bioengineered goats that treats patients with a rare blood clotting disorder. A report from the Pharmaceutical Research & Manufacturers of America from late 2008 claimed there are 633 new drugs from bioengineered materials in the works.
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Pop-Up Housing
PFNC, an El Paso company, is refurbishing leftover shipping containers into housing units for people living in dangerous or substandard conditions. The company says that each unit will include First World amenities for less than $10,000 (they should be available mid-2009.) They're first going to folks in Juárez, Mexico, where chronic housing shortages have led to huge slums.
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Super-High-Speed Internet
While parts of Asia and Europe enjoy speedy Internet, much of the rest of the world can often feel as if it's still on dial-up. Efforts to build nationwide WiMax networks (high speed wireless) have fizzled. Without fast connections, services like Internet video, online banking, and business telecommunications are stymied. The ability to access the marketplace from anywhere will reduce costs, expand networks, and save time.
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Supercharged Batteries
Millions of dollars are being poured into research to develop the next great battery technology. Longer charges on fewer cycles are needed to power electric cars, handheld devices, home appliances, and backup systems for when, say, the wind turbines stop turning.
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