Electronic Supplementary Material

Detailed results of the marginal cost increase calculations

Crude oil

Fig. 1 shows the results of all Monte Carlo simulations for crude oil, with the two most extreme individual results as examples. This shows that the MCI of crude oil obtained from the Monte Carlo simulations is between 0.69∙10-15 (most gradual slope) and 0.95∙10-15 US$ per kg2 (steepest slope). The distribution of all 10,000 resulting CFs from the Monte Carlo simulations closely approximates a normal distribution with an average of 0.83∙10-15 US$ per kg2 and a standard deviation of 0.032∙10-15.

Fig. 1  Cost-cumulative production curve for crude oil based on Monte Carlo simulation, where the grey area is the range per 50 billion barrels and the slope is the marginal cost increase (cost estimates refer to the year 2008)

Natural gas

The marginal cost increase of natural gas from the Monte Carlo simulations is between 0.23∙10-15 and 0.41∙10 15 US$ per [m3]2 (Fig. 2). The distribution of the MCI from the Monte Carlo simulations closely approximates a normal distribution with an average of 0.33∙10-15 US$ per [m3]2 and a standard deviation of 0.022∙10-15 US$ per [m3]2.

Fig. 2  Cost-cumulative production curve for natural gas based on Monte Carlo simulation, where the grey area is the range per 10 trillion cubic meters and the slope is the marginal cost increase (cost estimates refer to the year 2008)

Coal

The marginal cost increase of coal obtained from the Monte Carlo simulations is 0.0044∙10-15 US$ per kg2 independent of the slope chosen (Fig. 3). The distribution from the Monte Carlo simulations approximates a normal distribution with an average of 0.0044∙10-15 and a standard deviation of 0.00006∙10-15 US$ per kg2.

Fig. 3  Cost-cumulative production curve for coal based on Monte Carlo simulation, where the grey area is the range per 0.1 billion tonnes and the slope is the marginal cost increase (cost estimates refer to the year 2008)

Table 1 Average marginal cost increase calculations in US$2008 per MJ2 or per kg2 (for crude oil and coal) and m6 (for natural gas) of fossil fuel

Fossil fuel / Marginal cost increase / R-square
10-18 US$2008/MJ2 / 10-15 US$2008/kg2 (or m6)
Crude oil / 0.48 / 0.83 / 0.99
Natural gas / 0.23 / 0.33 / 0.97
Coal / 0.0051 / 0.0044 / 0.85

Detailed results of the characterization factors

Table 2 Average and standard deviation (std. dev.) of the surplus cost in US$2008 per GJ and kg (crude oil and coal) or m3 (natural gas) fossil fuel for different perspectives using fossil fuel production simulated by six different models (IPCC 2000) and two different scenarios (assuming A1 = individualist; B2 = hierarchist)

Surplus cost
US$2008/GJ / US$2008/kg or m3
Fossil fuel / Individualist / Hierarchist / Egalitarian / Individualist / Hierarchist / Egalitarian
average / std. dev. / average / std. dev. / average / std. dev. / average / std. dev.
Crude oil / 0.74 / 0.04 / 2.88 / 0.08 / 14.3 / 0.031 / 0.002 / 0.121 / 0.003 / 0.598
Natural gas / 0.25 / 0.005 / 1.51 / 0.02 / 6.84 / 0.010 / 0.0002 / 0.057 / 0.001 / 0.260
Coal / 0.0043 / 0.0003 / 0.033 / 0.001 / 3.17 / 0.00013 / 0.00001 / 0.00095 / 0.00002 / 0.0928

Tommie PonsioenPRé Consultants bv 1