Radiative Fluxes – Pinker
1. At Issue:
As stated in the Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIC) Report: “over the past 50 years, it is probable (66-90% confidence) that Arctic amplification of greenhouse warming has occurred”. As noted by Serreze et al. (2007), the North Pole is becoming an “Island” (Figure 1). This amplification can be partly explained by the feedback associated with the high albedo of polar snow and ice. Accompanying this rapid warming, the polar sea ice and snow has been declining over the past decades. The extent of perennial sea ice has declined 20% since the mid-1970s. The location of the summer ice edge is strongly correlated to variability of downward long-wave flux and the reduced ice in spring and summer coincides with strongest solar radiation. If ice is lost, extra heat can be stored in these regions and remain through winter and reduce ice thickness the following spring. This ice-albedo feedback can accelerate the loss of ice.
Figure 1. NASA's satellite images have revealed that the melting ice has facilitated the opening-up of both the north-west and north-east passages, making it possible for marine vessels to circum-navigate the Arctic ice cap (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1050990/The-North-Pole-island-time-history-ice-melts.html).
2. Needs
To better understand the ice-albedo feedback over Polar Regions, there is a need for accurate estimates of surface shortwave radiative fluxes which can be provided only by satellites. At present, large scale satellite estimates of radiative fluxes from satellite observations disagree most in Polar Regions (Figure 2).
Figure 2. (a) Zonally averaged all-sky surface SW down Flux for July 1983-Dec 2004 as obtained from the GISS and the UMD models and their difference (b) Zonally averaged all-sky surface SW down Flux for July 2001 as derived from ISCCP D1 with the above two models and from MODIS atmospheric products with a modified version of the UMD model.
None of the current satellite inference schemes accounts for the variability in the extent of sea ice (Figure 3) and as such, do not correctly represent the boundary conditions in the radiative transfer computations. Consequently, errors are introduced in the estimates of the surface heating, which in turn, affect the ice melt computations.
Figure 3. Arctic sea ice extent on 16 September 2007 was 23% lower than the previous record minimum in August 2005, and 39% lower than the 1979-2000 average value (Source: NSIDC).
Similar discrepancies have been noted in numerical model outputs as shown in Figure 4. The comparison of the surface energy budget over the Arctic (70-90°N) from 20 coupled models for the IPCC fourth Assessment with 5 observationally based estimates and reanalysis shows that the simulation of the Arctic surface energy budget has large bias in climate models and the largest differences are located over the marginal ice zones (Sorteberg et al., 2007).
Figure 4. Arctic (70-90°N) annual SW down (left) and upward (right) from
four observational estimates and IPCC AR4 models taken as means over 1980-1999 using 20C3M scenario (Sorteberg et al., 2007).
3. Ice-albedo Feedback
Understanding the feedbacks that alter greenhouse-gas forcing, such as ice-albedo feedback is a major challenge in predicting the Polar Regions’ future climate state. Trend of cloud and surface properties derived from satellite for the period of 1982 to 1999 shows that the Arctic has warmed and became cloudier in spring and summer but has cooled and became less cloudy in winter (Wang et al., 2003). The increase in spring cloud amount radiatively balances changes in surface temperature and albedo, but during summer, fall, and winter, cloud forcing has tended toward increased cooling. Investigations using field data from the Arctic Alaska (Chapin et al., 2005) indicate that a lengthening of the snow-free season associated with the vegetation and summer albedo changes has increased regional warming by about 3 W m-2 decade-1. This is similar in magnitude to the effect of atmospheric CO2 doubling over multiple decades. This heating more than offsets the cooling caused by increased cloudiness.
Reduced ice in spring and summer is important to the climate system because the timing coincides with strongest solar radiation, of which ice is an excellent reflector. If enough ice is lost to allow sufficient extra heat enter into the Polar Regions, and some can remain through the winter and reduce ice thickness the following spring, the ice-albedo feedback will accelerate the loss of ice. Therefore, accurate estimates of the shortwave fluxes would be important for investigating causes for ice loss, especially for the extreme ice loss in 2005 and 2007.
4. Current Estimates of Radiative Fluxes over Polar Regions
Accurate estimates of radiative fluxes over the Polar Regions are important not only to accurately simulate surface temperature but also the surface energy budget, which includes the following components (King and Connolley 1997):
Where, and are the downward and upward long wave fluxes, is the downward shortwave flux, is the surface albedo, is the sensible heat flux, is the latent heat flux, and G is the conductive flux through the snow/ice pack (Pavolonis, et al., 2003).
Observations and model simulations of radiative flux estimates over Polar Regions are not consistent. The Polar Regions are data sparse regions with very few in-situ observations. Field observations and buoy measurements provide only short period data for some specific locations. An alternative approach is to either use reanalysis data-sets, (e.g., NCEP or ECMWF), or use satellite observations. Recent studies (Liu et al., 2005) indicate that the surface downward shortwave radiative fluxes derived from satellites are more accurate than the two main reanalysis dataset (NCEP and ECMWF), due to the better information on cloud properties in the satellite products. During the Surface Heat Budget and the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project it was shown that satellite-based analysis may provide downward shortwave (long wave) radiative fluxes to within ~ 10-40 (~10-30) W/m2 compared with ground observations (Perovich et al., 1999). Present-day Arctic and Antarctic radiation budgets of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) (Briegleb, 1998) show that the summer Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) absorbed shortwave radiation estimates in Arctic and Antarctic from 1985 to 1989 are less than 20 W/m2 than ERBE (Earth Radiation Budget Experiment) data and the surface downward shortwave radiation estimates are too small by 50-70 W/m2 compared with the selected model and observational surface radiative fluxes data.
It is believed that the accuracy of the fluxes in these regions can be improved by utilizing newly available satellite observations, improved inference schemes, and taking advantage of improved ground observations to evaluate the new estimates. In particular, more accurate data on surface condition, such as ice extent, atmospheric information, such as aerosol optical properties, improved models of narrow to broadband transformations with realistic surface models and newly available bi-directional distribution functions (BRDF) models (e. g., from CERES or MISER) need to be utilized.
5. Advantages of MODIS for improving SW radiation budget
Instruments onboard the new generations of sun synchronous satellites tend to have higher spatial and spectral resolution than those on earlier satellites, thus improving capabilities to detect atmospheric and surface parameters. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) instrument onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites is a state-of-the-art sensor with 36 spectral bands with an onboard calibration of both solar and infrared bands. The wide spectral range (0.41-14.24 µm), frequent global coverage (one to two days revisit), and high spatial resolution (250 m for two bands, 500m for five bands and 1000m for 29 bands), permit global monitoring of atmospheric profiles, column water vapor amount, aerosol properties, and clouds, at higher accuracy and consistency than previous Earth Observation Imagers (King et al., 1992).
A new inference scheme was developed (UMD/SRB_MODIS) for utilizing information from the MODIS instruments on the Terra and Aqua satellites, to estimate spectral SW radiative fluxes (Wang and Pinker, 2009). The scheme can be implemented at various spatial scales and as such, responds to existing void in information on shortwave radiative fluxes (Figure 5). It is based on the heritage of the UMD/SRB modeling activity and utilizes the most recent parameterizations of clouds, aerosols, and water vapor. The new inference scheme deals with both water and ice clouds, considers the variation of cloud droplet radius, takes into account the spectral variation of cloud optical properties and water vapor absorption in the near infrared spectrum, and allows for the correction of surface elevation effects. Evaluation of the new scheme against a high resolution complex radiative transfer model demonstrated that the UMD/SRB_MODIS inference scheme has the required accuracy for computing SW radiative fluxes. The new model was already implemented with MODIS products at 10 spatial resolution. The daily average values are constructed from the combination of Terra and Aqua and agree well with ground measurements as shown in Figure 6 over oceanic sites (agreement is better over land).
Figure 5. Instantaneous surface downward flux at local 10:30 am, August 1, 2003 as derived from MODIS.
An extensive dataset of global SW radiative fluxes was generated for the first time exclusively based on MODIS observations using the 10 MODIS products as well as the 5-km products. Compared to other satellite datasets, improvement in the estimates of the SW radiative fluxes at the surface are achieved at most of the available high quality BSRN sites. The improvement is very significant at problematic areas for most inference schemes such as the Tibet Plateau and Antarctica. A better understanding of solar radiation budget is anticipated through the implementation of the new inference scheme with MODIS observations.
Figure 6. Evaluation of monthly mean surface downward shortwave flux estimated
With the UMD/SRB_MODIS model against PIRATA and TAO/TRITON buoy observations (January 2003-December 2005)
Selected Relevant References
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Wang, H., and R. T. Pinker, 2008. Radiative Fluxes from MODIS. JGR-Atmospheres, in revision.