Facts and Fiction About Belarus First Terrorists: the Theory of the Big Explosion

Facts and fiction about Belarus’ first terrorists: The theory of the big explosion

Sergey Satsuk, January 16, 2012

Since the explosion in the Minsk subway, the media and Internet have published a large number of stories about the what, where and when. We decided to verify all of those theories.

Former Commander of the Anti-terrorist Team of the GRU (Chief Intelligence Department) Colonel Vladimir Borodach said that he knows a lot about explosive substances and that is why he doubts the official story of the terrorist act in Minsk subway. Even though we do not question the knowledge and qualifications of the colonel, we need to state that he is a political emigrant.

In any court in the world, before a question is posed to an expert, and answers are accepted, a person is always asked – ‘Are you an interested party?’ Regardless of Borodach’s qualifications, he does have a conflict of interest and is interested in changing the government, which is why he cannot be objective. That is why, in order to answer the public’s questions about Belarus’ first terrorists, we decided to use a completely independent person as an expert in our investigation.

We’d like to express our gratitude to Komsomolskaya Pravda inUkraine and the Danish Association for Investigative Journalism for their help in finding an expert and helping to conduct this investigation.

Informationonthecase

Zakhmatov Vladimir Dmitrievich–an independent international expert on explosions and fires, a famous scientist in the sphere of the physics of burning and explosions, developer of modern pulse fire extinguishing substances, doctorate of technical sciences, professor, active member of the International Academy of Ecology and Safety (Russia), New York Academy of Science (USA), and the Ukrainian Academy of Life Safety (Ukraine).

He is the author of over 190 scientific works, including two monographs, one textbook, three patents in Russia, three European patents, six patents in Ukraine, a number of articles in specialized international magazines.

Scientific interests: directed blastphysics, the sensitivity of explosives, the mechanics anddynamicsof multiphase media, development of new weapons, techniques and pulsetechniqueof quenchingvariousfires, light-heatprotection, prevention of bulky explosions, localizationof activeandtoxicemissions,oilspillsonwater surfaces,riotcontroland neutralization ofterrorists andsaboteurs.

Since February 2008, he has conducted eight independent investigations in Ukraineinto explosions and big fires with catastrophic consequences in Lviv, Drohobych, Ivano-Frankivsk, Boleslav, Evpatoria, Dnipropetrovsk, and Luhansk. In six cases, he disproved the official results of state experts and in two cases he added significant details to the official investigation; he participated in court trials at the invitation of injured parties.

He gives lectures in Russian and English in the following topics:explosives;the technology of the production, weaponizationand specialcharges;combustionand explosions;heat and mass transfer;weapons and ammunition;methods ofcriminologicalresearch,detection and monitoring ofmoving and the transportationof ammunition; features ofinvestigations into largeexplosionsin residential buildingsand industrial plants, warehouses; independentexamination ofdevelopeddemocratic countriesasone of the maincomponents ofa democratic society; and many other subjects.

- Vladimir Dmitrievich, you have seen photos of the hole in the cement block left after the explosion, what can you say about it?

- Here we have a destroyedconcrete structurewith a partialrupture in the steel reinforcement zhelezobetonnoĭ konstruktsii s chastichnym razryvom stalʹnoĭ armatury. The destruction of a similar concrete plate would need at least 10-13 kg of TNT.

- According to official investigation the power of the explosion,5 kg of TNT was involved, could that amount causethat much damage??

- The investigators know better since they saw the full picture and all I can judge is only from pictures. I think that 5 kg could probably cause a similar hole, but I did not see it for myself and didnot measure the exact size of it. I also did not see the thickness of the concrete slab and the metal reinforcement so my evaluations can only be approximate, without an accuratecalculationof an equivalent quantityof explosives. If we consider that the bag with the bomb was under a pretty thick bench and was hidden behind a pretty thick concrete stand for the bench, and that the bomb was basically in contact with the floor, it would be possible that such a bomb could leave similar hole.

Simple calculations show that it was no less than 10 kg, even more likely – 13 kg. A similar case happened in a Luhansk hospital. There was also a hole in the floor and a ruined ceiling. Here in the subway, the ceiling was not ruined since it was too high and I did not see its shape. For example – if the ceiling is high and vaulted– the explosion could have left no damage.

- Why didn’t the columns suffer any damage if the explosion was so powerful? Because of this fact, can we state that the explosion was directed and that the results of the official investigation are questionable?

- The fact is that the columns suffered no damage – I do no see any contradiction in this fact. Usually columns are undamaged. For the column to get destroyed, the explosive device would have had to have been in direct contact with the column. In my experience, I have seen one case when a person that studied in a technical university whose major was “the technologyof explosives andordinanceequipment” wanted to blow up a monument to Ustinov in Samara. He was a professional and never dealt with self-made bombs. He managed to steal about 2-3 kg of PDX (304 kg in TNT equivalent), put it together and blow it up with the help of a detonator. But the monument did not fall, even though the person put the bag with explosives in it right at the base of the column.

- Wouldn’t the columns get any – even partially – damaged, for example have some of the marble chipped off of them?

- Well, as you see here, the columns have a good form that is resistant to damage with firm ribs. Pieces could have chipped off, but we must also consider that people were all around and they served as a protective screen. If to compare to the pictures of the train car – here we can see that the fragments that damaged them had no obstacles, since there ware no people in the car. Between the column and the explosive device, there must have been people and that is why the column suffered no serious damage. On the video, we can clearly see that at the moment of the explosion, there were a lot of people coming out of the car, so this flow of people served as a protective screen to the column.

- Does the fact that a young man sitting on the bench remained alive and that the train car was damaged completely verify that the explosion was directed?

- Correct, it does, but let’s take a look at what a directed explosion means. First of all, the bottom of the bench to which the bag with the explosive was adjacent to, and second of all, it was at the hinges of the bench - so that is why the young man was hit by a wave from the explosion under the bench and it tore off his legs up to his knees, but the bench served as a shield for his rest of his body.

As to the holes in the wall of the train car, there is no reason to talk about any specific direction from the explosion. Part of the explosive wave went into the car due to natural conditions, such as the presence of people between the car and the epicenter of the explosion. It is too hard to calculate and predict the explosion in such a situation. There were too many factors influencing it such as hard objects and those adjacent to it – the bench stand and hinges.

Let’s take a look at an example, an assassination attempt on Hitler in 1944. The situation was similar. Hitler was 2-3 meters away from an explosive device located in a briefcase; it also had about 10 kg of TNT. It was a powerful military explosive; the device was made professionally.Nevertheless, the tabletop served as a reflector and the explosive wave went around it, which protected Hitler and that why he survived. At the same time, a lot of other people died who were even further from the epicenter of the explosion than he was. The same happened with this young man that was sitting on the bench. If we look at the location of the explosive, he was within the shield zone, but his legs weren’t, so that is why they were torn off.

- There is a theory from one expert that the explosive device was mounted inside the stand of the bench. Is it possible?

- It is out of question. If the explosive was inside the bench stand – the explosion would have looked completely different. The stand would serve not as a shield, but as a magnifier of the explosion. The body of the stand would serve as a big bomb and people around would have received really serious shrapnel wounds up to the tearing off of extremities with bigger fragments. The young man who was sitting on the bench would not get away with just torn off legs. In that case, the columns would have suffered damage as well.

- Is it necessary to have pieces of the bench to locate the explosive device?

- It is the hole in the floor that gives away the location of the device and the fragmentation of the bench that characterizes the degree ofthe destructive effects(fragmentation) and the power of the explosion. This is why the remains of the bench are necessary in order to investigate the explosion. The power of the explosion can easily be calculated from other parameters too.

- Should any remains of the bench have been survived after such an explosion?

- Of course there should have. If it was torn apart completely, the young man sitting on it would also have been torn to pieces. It again proves that the explosive device was of a lower power. If it was really TNT, the picture would have looked completely different. TNT equivalent is a conventional notion/concept, but the nature of the explosion is different due to different explosives.TNTand ammoniumsaltpetersubstances cause different explosive characteristics and we would have seen completely different results. If 10 kg of TNT had explored, all hard objects in a radius of 15-25 meters would have been torn to small pieces and in a bigger radius – there would have been damage from fragments. In our case, judging from the young man’s injuries, there was only fragment damage right around the epicenter, so the explosion was soft. For example, in the Moscow airport, that explosion was of a different character – it was more severe, with a bigger radius from the blast wave.

- At what distance from the explosion should there have been traces from the explosive on people?

- On the video, we can see that the terrorist was standing at a pretty safe distance from the epicenter, but the dust with micro elements of the explosive should have reached him too.

- Why then didn’t the experts find any traces of the explosive on Konovalov’s clothes? Was it possible to find traces on his clothes, or maybe swabs from his face or his nose that would prove for sure that at the time of explosion he was inside the subway station?

- In one day, all traces can disappear. What is really hard is to clean clothes of the powder, but traces of other explosive substances can easily be washed off. Traces of the explosives could have remained only on injured people. But at the place where they were standing –barely anything but cement dust might have reached them at the top, in the hallway of the subway.As to the cement dust – even if it was really found on clothes – it does not mean that it came from this subway. Any person that lives in the city might be carrying particles of cement dust. As to explosive particles, he might not have any traces of it. On the video, we can also see thathe was already starting to come up the hallway before it exploded (which proves his guilt), so can he have traces of the explosive on his clothes?

- According to the official investigation, the explosive device consisted of two plastic 6-liter water bottles filled with a mixture ofammonium nitrate andgidroperita.All of that was put intoa big sports duffle bag weighting about 25 kg, which was well seen in the video. Do you agree with this version of the events could have been true?

- IfI base my comments onwhat I said of 10 kg TNT equivalent, then if it is a self-made explosive made of ammonium nitrate, we have to double or triple the weight of the explosive. Thus we come to a bag of 25-30 kg – that would be two 6-liter bottles with nitrate. However, the theory presumes the explosion of the entire amount of the explosive, which is very unlikely in self-made devices. Alarge portion of the explosive device does not explode, for example, on the video we can clearly see particles flying out burned, but not exploded.

- Here are photos taken during the search of Konovalov’s basement. Do you think it looks like a terrorist’s laboratory?Was it possible that Konovalov prepared the explosive substance and explosive device in such conditions?

- Ammonium nitrate preparation does not boiling or other work. Ammonium explosives need only mixing. One can only stir them and that is it. Ammonium nitrate is a source of oxygen. When being heated or exploded, it flies out momentarily and releases oxygen.One can add any type of carbohydrate to it, for example, flour, sugar, wood dust, diesel, etc.

- So do you think Konovalov could make a so-called “kitty”(acetoneperoxide) in such conditions?

- I do not believe so. They wrote that he created theexplosive catalyst multiple times, but that is real suicide. In literature, they often write how people from the public and other self-made scientists made explosives during Russian tsar times. But many writers forget to mention that those ‘regular people from the public” had the strong support of the intelligentsia. They did not make explosives in their kitchen pots. They had a specialist do it for them in well equipped labs in Moscow, SaintPetersburg, Kazan, Odessa universities.

That is why I do not believe that it was possible to create an explosive catalyst in a basement. There is one more unquestionable truth. An explosive mixture based on ammonium nitrate is qualified as a lower power explosive substance. In order to explode, it is not enough to have just a detonator. They need an intermediatehigh explosive charge. In order for the ammonium nitrate to explode enough in each of the bottles, there should have been at least 200 grams, or maybe even 400 grams of TNT charge. In addition to the charge, there had to have been a detonator. I think that in this case that instead of a more or less large self-made explosive catalystthey used a normal intermediate charge from a powerful explosive, such as TNT. In order for the 6 liters of ammonium to explode, it takes at least 400 grams of TNT.

- Could triaceton triperoxide be the intermediate charge?

- If Konovalov made it himself, he would have blown himself up a long time ago. Do you know how to make an explosive catalyst and stuff it into an explosive device? It takes an air-tight box and an armor plate in front of the person who works on it; a person wears special gloves, a special protective suit, respirator and only then a person can start doing something. These are standard conditions for a factory. And even after following all of the aforementioned conditions, accidents can happen. I grew up in Samara region where we had four big military plants. The first one was one of the biggest in the entire USSRin terms of the production of explosives (TNT, RDX andits variants,includingamatol) and weaponization. The second one produced detonators. There were at least 3-4 accidents every month.

People were filling detonators with 1-2 grams of explosives. For example, it is enough to just touch nitroglycerine and it explodes.

- A famous Ukrainian chemical scientist and deanof a chemistry department told us that it is not hard to produce triacetone triperoxide…

- Chemistry is one thing and another thing is specialists who can produce explosive catalysts. If that chemist can create triacetone triperoxide in a basement under those safety norms, then I will bow in front of him in respect.It is like a lottery – today one can live, but tomorrow you can die. Do you know how recipes fir creating explosives appeared on Internet? It was an FBI operation to decrease the amount of terrorists who were trying to create self-made bombs. It was meant for people to blow themselves up in their own kitchens. It is a very dangerous activity and those who do it without appropriate conditions die sooner or later. Homemade detonators can blow up from just the blow of wind.

- As the investigation found out, Konovalov started by producing simple firecrackers then later started making more complex devices. Belorusian authorities call him a unique self-taught chemist. You think even such a chemist couldn’t make triacetone triperoxide in their basement?

- In the USA, scientists proved five years ago that even a nuclear bomb can be created at home. I do suppose the possibility of him being a genius chemist, but there are still many questions unanswered. If he managed to get triacetone triperoxide and didn’t blow himself up, then how did he store it, how did he transport it, how did he detonate it, and how did he manage to put it in that plastic bottle?

It is dangerous to even touch it. Why do you think they make detonators with 1-2 grams of the catalyst substance? They are made so that at least you can do something with the catalyst substances. They are dangerous to touch otherwise. According to the theory of probability, if Konovalov has done it before,then he would have had his fingers cut off or an eye blown out or other physical damage. It cannot be otherwise.