Power Crisis to Deepen in Coming Years

Power crisis to deepen in coming years:

50pc demand rise in two years likely

ISLAMABAD, Jan 7: The government is anticipating the energy crisis to worsen in the next two years due to a 50 per cent increase in the demand and a rather slow improvement in the supply, it is learnt.

The power shortage that has been estimated to remain in the range of 1000-2000MW during the current year is likely to cross 3,000MW next year and to increase to about 5,300MW by 2010. Overall, Pakistan’s total energy requirement is expected to be around 80 million tons of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2010, up by about 50 per cent from the current year’s 54 MTOE.

“Since four out of five major initiatives, originally planned for meeting this demand, are uncertain at present, the shortage could be anybody’s guess,” said a senior government official.

The federal government has decided to convene two back-to-back meetings on Tuesday to take stock of the situation. Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz will preside over a meeting of all stakeholders, including officials from the Planning Commission, ministries of water and power, petroleum and finance and power and gas utilities, and oil and gas producers and suppliers to examine repercussions and possible solutions.

Ahead of that meeting, Minister for Water and Power Liaquat Ali Jatoi will chair a meeting of oil and gas utilities to see how soon these shortages could be minimised and power plants on maintenance be brought on line.

An official, who is part of the team preparing for the prime minister’s meeting told Dawn that the energy shortage was severe and widespread in almost all areas, while different sectors contributed to each other’s problems. “Natural gas, power, and oil shortages were all posing risks to the economic growth in medium to long term period,” he said.

Adviser on Water and Power Riaz A. Khan said the situation was complex. He said the development of water resources would resolve the problem in the long run but in the short term there was a limit to constructing costly thermal power projects given their high economic costs.

He said the independent power projects currently under construction would not begin productions before 2009. The Orient Power Project, the Halmore, the Saif, the Sapphire and Water and Power Development Authority’s (Wadpa) new plants would be commercially operational in March 2009, he said.

A major shortfall is expected in natural gas supplies, another official said. According to an official energy demand forecast, the demand for natural gas, having about 50 per cent share in the country’s energy consumption, would increase by 44 per cent to 39MTOE from 27MTOE currently.

The government has planned to add an overall power generation capacity of about 7,880MW by 2010. Of this, about 4,860MW is to be based on natural gas, accounting for 61 per cent of the capacity expansion. However, the gas-based power expansion of about 4,860MW would remain in doubt since these estimates are based on three gas import options for completion in 2010, 2015 and 2020.

This means that the major part of about 4,860 gas-based plants would not be available and the difference would be met through other costly options. "Even if the physical work is started today, it will take at least seven years to complete a pipeline project", said a senior petroleum ministry official. He has no answer as to when a pipeline project could be taken in hand from now on. The fifth initiative of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import is expected to remain on schedule and start delivering about 0.3 billion cubic feet of gas (BCFD) by 2009 and another 0.5 BCFD by 2015.

Partly contributed by gas shortfalls, the power shortage is expected to be little over 5,250MW by 2010, said a Planning Commission official, adding that the oil demand would also increase by over 23 per cent to about 21 million tons in 2010 from the current 16.8 million tons. This would leave a total deficit of about nine million tons of diesel and furnace oil imports, he said. Since gas shortfalls were expected to be much higher, the country would need to enhance its dependence on imported oil, increasing pressure on foreign exchange situation, he added.

The government had planned five major initiatives to meet these energy requirements under the Energy Security Plan. These include three gas import pipelines, the Gwadar port as energy hub and the LNG import. However, four of these measures, including the three import pipeline projects, show no signs of progress for various reasons, while concentration on energy facilities in Gwadar would chiefly depend on security situation, besides oil and gas import pipelines.

Pakistan's gas reserves are 32.8 TCF at present with reserve-production ration in the order of 27 years - domestic production is not expected to grow substantially. The power sector demand represents 41 per cent of total gas consumption; general industries 24 per cent; fertiliser 7.8 per cent; domestic/commercial 22.8 per cent; and cement and the Condensed Natural Gas (CNG) 1.5 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively.

The demand growth has been up to 8.5 per cent in recent years and is expected to grow by about seven per cent with power industries and domestic accounting for 82 per cent. Gas demand already displays seasonal patterns with the national demand growing in winter beyond transmission capacity and large users mainly industries, power plants and cement are curtailed during winter months to ensure supplies to domestic, commercial and small industries or fertiliser. The annual production at present is about 1.16 TCF.

"The present government could not initiate any major project in the last seven years to meet future energy demand", said former secretary petroleum Dr Gulfraz Ahmad. The projects that were launched in the 1990s met the demand growth in the last few years, he said.

Former petroleum minister Usman Aminuddin said that Pakistan was currently in the midst of a severe energy crisis and development and gasification of Thar coal seemed the only hope in future.

According to the World Bank estimates, a gap (supply shortage) of about four per cent of the total demand was expected in 2010. Even though this would be met by the LNG imports, it would again increase to 20 per cent of the total demand. The Bank said that the indigenous gas supply would fall from 32.6 MTOE in 2010 to 20.7 MTOE in 2025, while the ‘gas supply-demand gap’ would rapidly increase as demand was expected to grow continuously, quadrupling in 2025. It said that the gas imports will represent almost 67 per cent of natural gas supply in 2025. One can, therefore, gauge the quantum of shortage in case import pipelines are not materialised.

(By Khaleeq Kiani, Dawn-1, 08/01/2007)

SHC orders KESC to pay Rs1.55m in damages

KARACHI: The Sindh High Court on Tuesday, while decreeing against Karachi Electricity Supply Corporation in a lawsuit for damages, directed the KESC to pay Rs.1.55 million in compensation to a boy who lost his right hand due to the negligence of the defendant.

Ali Raza had suffered heavy electric shock on June 4, 1997 (when he was eight-year-old) after coming into contact with an open pillar box exposing live cables in Nazimabad area. He received severe burn injuries on his right hand and his male organ due to some electrical defect and lack of proper maintenance by the KESC. He had claimed Rs.1,27,15,000 in compensation from the utility.

His counsel Nasir Maqsood contended that the injuries led to the amputation of his right arm and pelvic region, including his male organ, owing to gross negligence on the part of KESC for its absolute failure to maintain its installations in a proper manner. He argued that the KESC omitted to take reasonable precaution required in the similar circumstances in the operation of such dangerous installations in order to prevent the said network from creating danger for the public, including the plaintiff.

Defendant’s counsel M Raghib Baqi submitted that the allegations of negligence and failure to take safety measures were not true nor the defendant was aware of the incident or the injuries as allegedly suffered by the plaintiff, therefore, the question of payment of damages as claimed did not arise. The defendant also denied non-maintenance of any pillar box.

The bench comprising Justice Sajjad Ali Shah, after hearing the case, observed that the pillar box was not properly maintained and was not safe and secured enough to prevent the probabilities of causing harm to plaintiff.

(The News-2, 17/01/2007)

ADB offers $670 million for energy projects

ISLAMABAD, Jan 17: The Asian Development Bank has offered $670 million in new assistance for overcoming partly the worsening energy crisis in the country by developing its renewable energy resources.

Official sources told Dawn on Tuesday that the amount would meet about 80 per cent of the over Rs4 billion, five-year renewable energy development programme in Punjab.

Five hydropower projects have just been identified under the programme.

The main objective of the ADB assistance is to provide adequate facilities for generation, transmission and distribution of electrical energy keeping in view the future requirements for industrial, agricultural and economic development.

The government’s policy for power generation projects allows provinces to develop power up to 50MW installed capacity.

Sources said that the ADB technical experts had approved the power potential of about 50MW capacity available in Punjab on the sustainable basis to provide cheaper, renewable, environmental-friendly and most needed power.

Feasibility studies of five sites which included Marala, Chianwali and Deg Outfall along UCC off-taking from the Marala barrage on the Chanab river, Okara, along LBDC off-taking from the Balloki barrage on the Ravi river and Pakpattan, along the Pakpattan canal off-taking from the Suliemani barrage on the Sutlaj River, have been updated by the M/s Integration Environment and Energy Ltd in association with ENTEC AG under Technical Assistance from the ADB for the Punjab Irrigation and Power Department.

Sources said that the renewable energy plan would help save foreign exchange by not importing fuel that was used in thermal projects.It would also help save firewood, hence increase in tree and reduction in soil erosion and degradation and increase in house conditions.

The energy generated through the sites will also provide adequate supply to poor and vulnerable consumers and hospitals, schools and other social utilities.

Sources said that the construction of hydropower projects was a specialized job which involved several experts of various engineering disciplines and technologies, hydro-turbines, generators and associated automized control, which would have to be imported for such projects because no local manufactures were available.

The gap between the demand and supply in the past was met through the installation of thermal power projects based on costly imported fuel.

The situation has disturbed the hydel-thermal mix ratio from 65.35 to 35.65 which had resulted into unbearable increase in electricity tariff besides increasing dependency on imported fuels for energy needs.

Under the circumstances, the government picked up the advice of the World Bank and the ADB to explore renewable energy means to meet its present and future energy requirements.

The federal government had established the Alternative Energy Development Board in 2003 to exploit the renewable energy resources with the target to produce 2030MW through renewable means.

(By Ihtasham ul Haque, Dawn-4, 18/01/2007)

ADB offers $670 million for energy projects

ISLAMABAD, Jan 17: The Asian Development Bank has offered $670 million in new assistance for overcoming partly the worsening energy crisis in the country by developing its renewable energy resources.

Official sources told Dawn on Tuesday that the amount would meet about 80 per cent of the over Rs4 billion, five-year renewable energy development programme in Punjab.

Five hydropower projects have just been identified under the programme.

The government’s policy for power generation projects allows provinces to develop power up to 50MW installed capacity.

The energy generated through the sites will also provide adequate supply to poor and vulnerable consumers and hospitals, schools and other social utilities.

The gap between the demand and supply in the past was met through the installation of thermal power projects based on costly imported fuel.The situation has disturbed the hydel-thermal mix ratio from 65.35 to 35.65 which had resulted into unbearable increase in electricity tariff besides increasing dependency on imported fuels for energy needs.

Under the circumstances, the government picked up the advice of the World Bank and the ADB to explore renewable energy means to meet its present and future energy requirements.

The federal government had established the Alternative Energy Development Board in 2003 to exploit the renewable energy resources with the target to produce 2030MW through renewable means.

(By Ihtasham ul Haque, Dawn-4, 18/01/2007)

Load-shedding in city from today

KARACHI, Jan 18: The Karachi Electric Supply Corporation has announced that it will carry out load-shedding in the city for 45 to 60 minutes daily, between 6pm and midnight.

A KESC spokesman said that the load-shedding had become necessary due to a shortage of power by about 100MW. He said that due to the shortage in the WAPDA system the KESC had been asked to reduce the power import from 560MW to 460MW in the evening peak hours.

The spokesman further said that the KESC’s own generation had also been reduced because two units of 210MW each at Bin Qasim power station were currently under renovation and upgradation, while work on one of the unit might end and it might start generation by Jan 28.

The load-shedding, he said, would continue in the city during the evening hours till power import from WAPDA improves.

(Dawn-17, 19/01/2007)

It’s clean, it’s green, wind energy makes sense

By Zofeen T. Ebrahim

“It’s abundant, inexhaustible and it’s clean,” says Sohail Ahmed, a strong proponent of wind energy. “Unlike nuclear and fossil fuels, this does not produce pollutants, heat-trapping greenhouse gases or hazardous wastes,” he adds. Last week he put up a second-hand imported 150 kilowatt (kw) wind turbine at a friends’ factory in Korangi, saying “it’s going to be the fastest growing energy sector in the very near future”.

“The turbine is attached to the local power company’s grid, in our case to the Karachi Electric Supply Corporation and whatever electricity is generated by the windmill will be bought by the electric utility” Ahmed explains the working. The business model is unusual in that whatever is generated is deducted from the company's utility bill. The wind mill owner only pays the difference or if the turbine supplies more, then KESC will pay at the same rate that it sells power .

For more than two years Ahmed has been studying how countries in Europe, specially Germany, have been harnessing this source of energy. Germany leads the world in wind power capacity with the United States following. Spain and Denmark are in third and fourth place respectively. Some developing countries, too, have jumped on the wind power bandwagon. Argentina and India are making massive investments in wind power.