CAeM-MG/2016/Doc. 4.1(4), p. 1

World Meteorological Organization / CAeM-MG/2016/Doc. 4.1(4)
COMMISSION FOR AERONAUTICAL METEOROLOGY / 3.XI.2016
MANAGEMENT GROUP 2016
Hall (Innsbruck), Austria
8-10 November 2016 / ITEM4.1
English only

REVIEW OF THE WORK PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION

Report of the Expert Team on Aviation, Science and Climate (ET-ASC)

(Submitted by Herbert Puempel, Chair of ET-ASC)

Summary and Purpose of Document
This document provides an overview of the activities of the ET-ASC since the last meeting of the CAeM Management Group held 12 to 14 May 2015 together with detailed information on the working arrangements and work plan of the expert team.

ACTION PROPOSED

The Management Group (MG) is invited to review the progress made by ET-ASC since May 2015, to review the working arrangements and work plan of the expert team and, as necessary, to formulate actions accordingly.

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CAeM-MG/2016/Doc. 4.1(4), p. 1

  1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1The Expert Team on Aviation, Science and Climate (ET-ASC) was instrumental in the publication and outreach of issues concerning aviation and climate, and in co-operation with other bodies such as the CAS in supporting the joint Aviation Research Development Project, the GFCS, the Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP) of ICAO and external stakeholders such as EUROCONTROL SES, OEM’s such as AIRBUS, and other international groups.

1.2ET-ASC has been strongly engaged in the preparation and running of the European Conference on Meteorology for Aviation (ECMA) held in Vienna, Austria, in October 2015, the aviation-centric Workshop during WSN-16 on Nowcasting and Very short range forecasting for Aviation held in Hong Kong, China, in July 2016, in preparing a first set of scientific answers to the questions posed by AIRBUS on the challenges of future climates for OE’s, and will be central to the preparation of the CAeM-CAS-CCL Scientific Event in cooperation with ICAO on future MET services to aviation to be held in the fall of 2017.

1.3The most significant achievement of ET-ASC probably lies in the remarkable increase of awareness of aviation stakeholders of the importance and challenges of providing fit-for-purpose, consistent and scalable MET services in an increasingly hostile and changing climate reflected by new risk scenarios.

  1. PROGRESS/ACTIVITY REPORT

Now-Casting and Very Short Range Forecasting

2.1The contribution by the chair to WSN-16 and the preceding training event was based on many helpful contributions and discussions with ET members, and described the challenges of new ATM systems operating on trajectory-based methods requiring a seamless, consistent and reliable prediction of ATM capacities (the “translation” of MET conditions into ATM an airport capacity), and the increasingly risk-based approach of holistic safety and quality management systems operated by ATM, Operators (Air space users) which are to be vetted and approved by regulatory authorities based on sound estimates of the achievable accuracy and reliability of MET information. All these requirements are pointing to the need for a statistically sound, calibrated and stable estimate of these KPIs.

Cooperation with CAEP and other bodies on the impact of aviation on climate change

2.2ET-ASC has kept abreast with recent developments through the ISG (Impacts and Science Group) of CAEP, where the Chair is a member. There is an intention to launch a dedicated research project with specialize institutions (DLR) and others on studying the role of aviation induced Cirrus cloud on the Northern Hemisphere Cryosphere , in particular over the northern hemisphere mountain ranges and possibly Greenland, where reduced overnight cooling due to Cirrus (including the aviation-induced part) may play a role in the increased melting of current ice surfaces (glaciers, permafrost, sea ice). The ET also keeps track of the development of climate-neutral trajectories through the Chair who is on the advisory board of such projects (React4change, ATM4E). As part of this activity, the chair also participated and contributed to the CAEP E-GAP (Global Aviation Partnerships on Emissions Reductions) workshop held in Montreal in February 2015.

Operational aspects of climate change impact on aviation

2.3Several publications and contributions were delivered by the chair with significant input and support from ET-ASC:

  • The CAEP Steering Group White Paper for the Feb 2015 SG meeting was delivered in time and based on significant input from several Team members (Matt, Anna, Bob)
  • A contribution to the ICAO CAEP Annual Report was provided in a similar fashion and has increased the visibility of the issues concerned
  • The latest WMO Bulletin contains an article in form of an interview with the chair on issues of climate change impacting aviation.

Regulatory Aspects

2.4A recent article provided by the chair to the journal “Climate Change Law Review” (CCLR) discussed the potential needs for law makers and regulators to consult with Met and Climatologists on the updating, enlarging and completing the scope of regulations to take into account the increased likelihood and intensity of hazardous MET phenomena in aviation.

3.WORKING ARRANGEMENTS AND WORK PLAN

3.1The hitherto rather loose working arrangements together with a fluctuation in the membership will need some tightening for the run-up to the 2017 Scientific Event.

3.2The Team was affected by the loss of Bob Rutledge, a very able and active member, and difficulties with corresponding with some members, leading to a limited representation of Developing Country issues in the work programme. These losses were somewhat compensated by the very welcome participation of an associate member, Bjoern-Ruediger Beckmann from DWD, who was very helpful in the domain of nowcasting and ensemble modelling questions.

TEAM
Commission / WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)
Expert Team on / Aviation, Science and Climate
Start Date / End Date / August 2014 / August 2018
Stakeholders / CAEP, SES, AvRDP, CAS
Team / Name / Organization / Country / E-mail
Chair / Co-chairs / Herbert PUEMPEL / Austria /
Core Members / Ping Wah LI
Cory P. DAVIS
Anna IVANOVA
Pascal WANIHA
Matthew HORT
Björn-Rüdiger BECKMANN / Hong Kong, China
New Zealand
Russian Federation
Tanzania (U.R. of)
United Kingdom
Germany /





DESCRIPTION
Objective / Raise awareness of aviation stakeholders on issues of aviation and climate, promote the use of current scientific methodology for Now-Casting and VSRF in Aviation, including probabilisticforecasting
Background / Provide a sound scientific base for GANP / ASBU , with a view to validation and translation of MET input to ATM and ASU
Terms of Reference / (a)To coordinate the response to science related requests in support of the development of new and evolving service delivery concepts and related observing system requirements, in collaboration with the relevant WMO bodies and programmes;
(b)To coordinate the response to science related requests for advice to support the development of new and evolving aviation now-casting and very short-range forecasting concepts in collaboration with the relevant WMO bodies and programmes;
(c)To provide expert representation to the ICAO CAEP and coordination of responses to science related requests for advice relating to the impacts of climate change and variability on aviation, including seasonal and inter-annual changes, in collaboration with GFCS and relevant WMO bodies and programmes; and to make WMO Members aware of emerging opportunities for related services;
(d)To develop and maintain a repository of relevant research activities in collaboration with the relevant organizations and bodies;
(e)To report regularly on progress to the president of CAeM.
Communication Strategies
Description / Target Audience / Delivery Method / Frequency / Date / Responsibility
Work Plan / ATM, ASU representatives / Publications, Workshops scientific events / Publications ongoing /on demand, Sci. Event 4Q2017 / Chair and team, Secretariat support
General correspondence / On demand (e.g. Airbus etc.) / Targeted expertise, links to suitable institutions / On demand / Chair, Secretariat
Team Meetings / ET-ASC / Conference calls, email contact, face-to-face / As required or with appropriate events / Chair and team
Reports / CAeM / Email / As required / Chair
Final Report / CAeM / Email / As required / Chair

CAeM-MG/2016/Doc. 4.1(4), p. 1

WORKPLAN
Activity / Task / ET
TOR(s) / Accountability / Deliverables / Dates / Status
(not started, ongoing, closed)
ACTIVITY 1: <insert>
Continue contributions to stakeholder publications, workshops and events / As appropriate / chair / Reports, presentations, participation @workshops / As appropriate / ongoing
ACTIVITY 2: <insert>
Preparation of Scientific Event in Cooperation with CAS; CCL; ICAO / As appropriate / Chair, Secretariat, MG, / Programme for event, List of invitees, Organizational aspects / 2Q-4Q 2017 / started

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