Appendix 2D: Approaches to Climate Change in Germany (Scenarios, Mitigation, Identifying

APPENDIX 2D: APPROACHES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN GERMANY (SCENARIOS, MITIGATION, IDENTIFYING RISKS, ADAPTATION)

Note: There is a wide range of activities related to climate change and spatial planning in Germany. It is not possible to cover all activities of the 16 federal states, their agencies and research institutions within the limits of this review. We tried to reduce this complexity by focusing at the federal state level on northern Germany and the topics ‘Costal Management’ (States of Schleswig-Holstein, Hamburg, Niedersachsen) and ‘River Management along the river Elbe’ (States of Sachsen, Brandenburg). By identifying key projects within these states we exemplarily show pilot projects related to our research question.

Table 1: Forecasting Climate Change (Germany)

Topic / Approach /
Key organisations/institutions involved in forecasting climate change / Federal Ministries:
(1) BMBF, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung / Federal Ministry of Education and Research.
BMBF is the key ministry for funding/commissioning research, for example by establishing DEKLIM, the German Climate Research Programme.
(2) BMU, Bundesministerium für Umwelt / Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety.
BMU is funding/commissioning research via its Federal Environmental Agency (BUA)
(3) WBGU, Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderung / German Advisory Council on Global Change.
WBGUs mission is to describe and assess the current environmental situation and current environmental trends, as well as to point out environmental problems and suggest possible ways and means of preventing or correcting them.
As part of its mission, it issues a report every two years which is submitted to the German federal government. The reports describe and comment on current environmental policy developments and deal with several topics in depth.
In addition, the Advisory Council issues special reports in which specific environmental problems are examined extensively. In order to be able to advise the federal government in a timely manner before important environmental decisions are made, the Environmental Council issues statements and comments in which it formulates recommendations with regard to current environmental policy matters, such as, for example, with regard to currently planned legislation or funding/commissioning research. As an advisory council it is not directly involved in forecasting but has great influence on what will be done in the future.
Federal Institutions:
(4) UBA, Bundesumweltamt / Federal Environmental Agency.
Preparation, assessment and evaluation of scientific basis on climate change and its consequences. Deduction of environmental qualities and environmental aims of action. Collaboration in developing international treaties for climate change (convention on controlling climate change, Kyoto-Protocol). This includes the preparation of future scenarios of climate change and the formulation of strategies for mitigation and adaptation.
(5) DWD, Deutscher Wetterdienst / National Meteorological Service.
Germany’s National Meteorological Service is responsible for meeting meteorological requirements arising from all areas of economy and society in Germany. Their area of responsibility is defined by the statutory tasks of providing information and performing research as laid down in the Law on the Deutscher Wetterdienst. DWD provides data basis on contemporary climate necessary for climate research. Its short-term forecast models are a basis for long-term models necessary for climate change forecast.
Research Institutions governmentally funded/ endorsed:
(6) DEKLIM, Deutsches Klimaforschungsprogramm / German Climate Research Programme.
The Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) has launched this Climate Research Programme which supports the National Climate Protection Programme and the Federal Government's Sustainability Strategy. The German Climate Research Programme pursues the following key objectives:
To improve the understanding of the climate system and of how it can be influenced by humankind.
To reduce uncertainties in analysis and forecasting.
To derive strategies for dealing with climate change.
DEKLIMs key major aims are the increased integration of the results of German research in the international assessment of climate development (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/IPCC) and providing basic know-how and guidance in the field of practical climate protection measures. DEKLIM supports a wide range of different research programmes partly dealing with forecasts.
(7) PIK, Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, / Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Founded in 1992 PIK was to run in a radically holistic approach. On the one hand scientists from all relevant disciplines (i.e. meteorology, ecology, economic sciences, systems analysis, etc.) should work together closely and without bias (“horizontal integration”), on the other hand all aspects of the relevant problem (from its formulation to proposals for its solution for decision-makers) should equally be considered (“vertical integration”). The possibilities to contain human-induced (“anthropogenic”) climate change at a tolerable level, together with suitable measures to adapt to the unavoidable warming of the planet (with its particularly grave consequences for the poorest developing countries), should be at the core of the institute’s research.
As an interdisciplinary institute PIK is involved in climate forecasting as well as in research on impacts and adaptation measures.
(8) DKRZ, Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum / German Climate Computing Centre.
The German Climate Computing Centre is the national German service centre for climate researchers.
By its article of association, DKRZ is responsible to install and operate a high performance computer system for basic as well as applied research in the field of climatology and related disciplines. Its basic task is the provision of computer power for quantitative computation of complex processes in the climate and earth system with sophisticated, realistic numerical models.
The DKRZ also maintains facilities for storage and management of extremely large data sets including software tools and hardware. The DKRZ is a coordinating node in the national and European network of climate researchers. it has the third biggest climate computer worldwide.
(9) Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie.
The major objective is to undertake a system analysis of the Earth System dynamics with emphasis on the Earth Climate. More specifically, aim of the institute is to analyse the natural variability in the Earth system, and assess how the system is affected by changes in land-use, industrial development, urbanization, and other human-induced perturbations. Among the tools used by MPI-Met scientists are advanced numerical models that simulate the behaviour of the atmosphere, the ocean, the cryosphere and the biosphere, and the interactions between these different components of the Earth’s system. Within a wide range of different research programmes partly dealing with forecasts.
(9.1) M&D, the Model and Data group.
M&D is hosted at the Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie. The group's mission is to provide central support for the German and European climate research community. Emphasis is on application of climate models and climate data.
(10) GKSS, Forschungszentrum Geesthacht.
GKSS is one of the fifteen national research facilities that belong to the HGF (Hermann von Helmholtz Society of German Research Centres). The GKSS Institute for Coastal Research (IfK) and its application-oriented, interdisciplinary "Water and Climate in Coastal Areas" research program are dedicated to studying the condition, the changes, the dynamics and the use of coastal areas and their adjoining regions. The Institutes task is to discover the scientific bases for the effective and sustainable use of coastal regions. The results of the research are used by governmental bodies and social organizations to decide upon and assess measures that would alter the environment, as well as contributing to the efficient and cost-effective monitoring of the coastline.
The work is organized into the subjects "Anthropogenic and natural regional changes", "Materials with future relevance in coastal regions", "Methods for monitoring coastal waters" and "Prognosis and control of coastal processes".
(11) Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung.
Activities of the Institute focus on the physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere with the objective of understanding regional and global changes of the climate and evaluating their consequences. Major issues include changes of the chemical composition of the atmosphere by natural impacts and man’s acting, the water cycle and natural catastrophes, processes in the stratosphere above about 12 km height and in the transition layer to the troposphere below as well as consequences of climate changes in sensitive regions. Work comprises a number of methods ranging from laboratory experiments on the degradation of ozone in test chambers and large field measurement programs with aircraft, balloons, and radar devices to the modelling of individual aerosols in the air and using the global stratosphere model. Novel measurement instruments and processes are developed and applied for measurements on the ground (soil humidity, turbulence in the air layer close to the ground), in the free atmosphere (balloon probes, aircraft sensors), and from satellites (ENVISAT environmental satellite with the MIPAS instrument). Models also cover the interaction with the biosphere (exchange of energy, water, and trace gases with plants). In cooperation with other Helmholtz Centers, models are coupled with all other components of the Earth’s system.
(12) Forschungszentrum Jülich.
Project Management Jülich (PTJ) undertakes the project management of support programmes and research priorities for various contractors: above all for the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWA), the Federal Ministry for the Environment (BMU) and also federal state ministries.
Since all the processes in soil, water and air are closely intermeshed, the five Jülich environmental institutes cooperate in the interdisciplinary "Department of Chemistry and Dynamics of the Geosphere". With their investigations, the environmental researchers provide findings on how the resources of soils, water and air can be used in a resource-conserving way and what role is played by plants. They perform environmental precaution research and supply forecasts for future developments in the environment.
(13) DLR, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt / German Aerospace Center
Climate research satellite data provided by the DLR offer global information about clouds, rain, water vapour, trace gases, temperature and vegetation. Together with ground and balloon measurements they make a significant contribution toward improving weather predictions and providing reliable basic information for climate models. Another application field is monitoring adherence to international environmental conventions such as the Kyoto Protocol. Satellite data are used to detect and analyse ozone concentration in the atmosphere as well as ground level ultraviolet radiation. Satellites play an important role in monitoring air quality and in determining suitable locations for solar power plants and wind energy converters.

(14) GLOWA-Elbe - Integrated Analysis of Global Change Impacts on Environment and Society in the Elbe River Basin

The GLOWA-Elbe with its 19 partners is a part of the "Global Change in the Hydrological Cycle" (GLOWA) framework project founded by the BMBF, and is an example of integrative interdisciplinary and application-oriented global change research. Main focus is the research of integrated strategies for wiser and sustainable management of water at local levels in consideration of global ecological interactions and basic socio-economic conditions.
Aims
·  Compilation and modelling of complex dependencies and in the interactions between hydrologcial cycle, climate, land use and society in Elbecatchment
·  Derivation of regional climate futurescenarios
·  Implementation of the developed instruments at the area of the Elbe River Basin for evidence of provident identification and analysis of problems and conflicts dependent on global change and deflaction of actions and strategies
Organisational level at which forecasting is taking place / The general climate change research is commissioned and financed on a national level by the two ministries BMBF / Federal Ministry of Education and Research and BMU / Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety. Research and forecasting is undertaken by the big research institutions stated above. The national research is focusing on basic research, on describing and understanding regional and sectoral climate phenomenon and developing more and more sophisticated climate models like ECHAM (global atmosphere model), REMO (regional atmosphere model) or Baltimos (integrated regional model for the Baltic Sea). In this respect German climate research is well advanced, although forecasting on a national level is weak.
The results of this basic research support global forecasts e.g. as from the IPCC and they are used in regional forecasts on a federal state level.
The 16 states of Germany with their ministries and institutions support a wide range of regional focused climate change research programmes that are covering regional forecasts as well as considerations of impacts. There rarely is a strict distinction between forecasting and identifying impacts. An overview of these activities is nearly impossible. The two mentioned projects ‘Best - Brandenburg Simulator of Environmental and Socio-economic Transformations’ and the ‘Scenario on Climate Change for the State of Saxony’ are examples for these activities founded and endorsed by the regional federal level.
Regional forecasts are not integrated into a national forecast. You may say that they reflect the federal structure of Germany.
The methods used for forecasting / NOTE:
On a national political level the international IPCC forecast is widely used. The ”Fourth Assessment Report” is scheduled for 2007.
The German research community developed a range of climate models like ECHAM (global atmosphere model), REMO (regional atmosphere model) or Baltimos (integrated regional model for the Baltic Sea) used for specific research. These climate models are general ones and they are used to generate regional specific forecasts by combining them with local weather data or other data like e.g. GIS based information on land use. The resolution of the forecast is depending on data input and the combination of climate models. The already mentioned projects ‘Best - Brandenburg Simulator of Environmental and Socio-economic Transformations’ and the ‘Scenario on Climate Change for the State of Saxony’ are examples for this regional use of climate models developed by national research institutions, similar research is taking place in the other 14 Federal States.
(15) IPCC
Method:
IPCC combines worldwide research to which Germany is contributing. IPCC provides a holistic view on global climate change.
Output:
Based on 4 Scenarios over a timescale of 100 years:
A1: high economic growth
A2: heterogeneous world with traditional values
B1: clean technologies and a rejection of materialism
B2: local solutions for economic and ecologic sustainability
IS 92: a ‘nothing will change’ approach
IPCC general forecast for northern Europe:
temperature will rise for between about 1,4 ° and 5,8 °
rise in continental droughts in summer
more frequent and intense rainfalls