Kheir Al-Kodmany, Ph.D.
Associate Professor,
Director of Graduate Studies,
Urban Planning and Policy
University of Illiniois Chicago
Title:
Complex Spatial Modeling and Simulation:
The Case of Hajj, the Annual Pilgrimage of Muslims to Makkah, Saudi Arabia
This paper discusses the tremendous challenges and some possible solutions in modeling the Hajj event, the annual Muslim pilgrimage to Makkah in Saudi Arabia. Hajj is the largest congregational event in the world. It involves hosting and transporting about three million pilgrims through multiple sites in a one-week time span. Planning for the future is critical, as attendance is expected to double to about six million in a decade.
From a modeling perspective, Hajj is a large-scale and complex spatial-temporal-ritual-behavioral phenomenon. That is to say, each activity of Hajj is comprised of four prime variables: space, time, rites, and behavior. Each ritual is carried out at a specific time, a specific location, and by a mass of people exhibiting widely varying behaviors.
The rugged physical geography of the Makkah region and the numerous sites involved complicate the spatial modeling task. There are four macro locations (Makkah City and the three Holy Sites of Mina, Muzdalifa, Arafat) as well as a number of micro locations (such as The Sacred Mosque, The Mount of Mercy, Al-Mashair Al-Haram Mosque, Masjid Al-Khaif Mosque, Al-Jamarat Bridge, etc.). The geographic area of Hajj is delineated by religious precepts that dictate the boundaries of the Holy Sites. Pilgrims visiting these sites must navigate the many steep slopes, narrow valleys, and bottlenecks that characterize the landscape.
The temporal and ritual aspects of Hajj are complicated because they involve specific days (the 8th to 13th days of the 12th month of the lunar calendar) and specific timeframes for each ritual that need to be carried out within each day. There are dozens of rituals, including Tawaf (circulating around Kaaba), Saai (brisk walking between two hills), praying, standing in Arafat, throwing pebbles, sacrificing animals, shaving, cleansing, etc.
Modeling behavioral factors adds further complexity, as pilgrims come from over 180 different countries and have very diverse cultural backgrounds. The crowd is composed of people of all ages, both genders, and with varying degrees of health, physical strength and educational levels. Communication is problematic since pilgrims speak over 80 different languages. In addition to the pilgrims, there are approximately 100,000 Hajj personnel to deal with security, fire, health, cleaning and natural hazards. Predicting the behavior of such a diverse crowed is challenging, to say the least. Furthermore, modeling must take into account such uncertain weather/natural disaster events as thunderstorms (Hajj 2004) and fire(1997), as well as human disasters such as violence (1993), stampedes (2006) and asphyxiation (1998). These prior catastrophes make it clear that seemingly insignificant errors in calibration, misjudging levels of tolerance, and missing variables can lead to immense tragedies.
The paper reviews relevant computational models for application to the Hajj event, including agent-based modeling, GIS and 3D modeling, and simulation and visualization tools. It identifies four separate areas of modeling that are needed for Hajj:
1-Modeling past tragic events. These models are meant to provide better understanding of the causes of tragedies in order to avoid them in the future. Simulation, video, 2D and 3D animation models could be suitable.
2-Modeling the planning of events. Models here involve transportation and scheduling for crowd activities and movements. One example is to model the symbolic “stoning of the devil” on Al-Jamarat Bridge, one of the most dangerous and demanding crowd environments in the world. Here we review Dr. Keith Still’s innovative mathematical modeling and expertise in pedestrian and crowd dynamics systems. Finally, this category includes three-dimensional modeling for planning and designing the physical environment of Makkah and the Holy Sites.
3-Continuously Operating Real-time Monitoring (CORMS) for events. This would mean implementing early warning systems for detecting dangerous build-ups of pedestrian traffic. It involves real time data collection, parameters calculation, analysis, and display.
4-Models for emergency response, intervention and communication. It includes AV aids, CCTVC & Electronic Display Boards, giving directions, and recovery.
The paper concludes by pointing out the direct relevance of the Hajj project to emerging research in the planning field post 9/11, such as emergency response to terrorism and evacuation planning. Spatial modeling research on the Hajj is also applicable to management of other types of multi-venue crowded public spaces where public and private sector managers must care for the safety of large numbers of people. Some examples might be: airports, maritime ports, central business districts, urban centers, government centers, stadiums, transit and railroad stations and Olympic events.
1