Case Study: Relevance of Biotechnology for the Biological Weapons Convention

Project “Preventive Arms Control” [(]

BVP CENSIS FONAS IANUS IFSH

Bochum/Dortmund Darmstadt Hamburg

1. January 2000 –31.December 2000

Draft (July 2000

Contents:

· Project Network Preventive Arms Control

· Framework project: Methods, Criteria and Concepts for Preventive Arms Control

· Case Study: Ballistic Missile Defence and its Consequences for the ABM Treaty and International Security

· Case Study: Technical Options for the Disposal of Civilian Plutonium Stockpiles to Minimise Proliferation Risks

· Case Study: Microsystem Technology - Dangers and Options for Limitation

· Case Study: Relevance of Biotechnology for the Biological Weapons Convention

The aim of the Project Network is to examine the possibilities of Preventive Arms Control by analysing different fields of militarily relevant technologies with regard to disarmament and non-proliferation. Two objectives are to be reached. Based on the research findings of the different case studies in the Project Network, practicable arms control recommendations are to be elaborated. Furthermore, current methods for technology assessment in different phases of armament such as research and development (R&D) are to be improved upon and refined.

In close cooperation with each other, the different projects involved in the Network will work out basic criteria and methods for the evaluation of future armament trends which could have destabilising consequences. The overall project intends to produce a systematic framework for science and technology assessment with regard to

- the potential impact on armament in general and

- the possible perils of proliferation

to provide a catalogue of reliable measures for

- the preventive limitation of armament and

- the avoidance of proliferation.

Additionally, the expertise in natural science and arms control within the peace- and conflict studies community in Germany is to be strengthened.

Project Network Preventive Arms Control: The Profile

- the potential impact on armament in general and

- the possible perils of proliferation

to provide a catalogue of reliable measures for

- the preventive limitation of armament and

- the avoidance of proliferation.

Additionally, the expertise in natural science and arms control within the peace- and conflict studies community in Germany is to be strengthened.

Objectives

The establishment of an early warning capability including the analysis of destabilising or otherwise negative developments and the elaboration of adequate qualitative arms control measures are decisive for the implementation of Preventive Arms Control. Such measures can not only improve international security but may also help to reduce costs considerably. The continued development of new military technologies could induce further technological arms races. After the introduction of qualitatively new weapons systems it is often more difficult to limit them or their effects than to ban them in the development phase. This is illustrated, for example, in the pertinent case of blinding lasers.

Preventive Arms Control can be described as qualitative arms control with a broader time perspective. The preventive character of the concept is especially expressed by the attempt to include militarily relevant R&D and testing into arms control at the earliest possible stage. The objective is to

- prevent technological arms races

- hamper the development and the proliferation of weapons technologies

- minimise destabilising military options and

- reduce costs

According to a study by the “Office for Technology-Assessment of the German Parliament” (TAB), Preventive Arms Control shall build a basic framework for:

- early monitoring and analysis of militarily relevant technologies

- political judgement with respect to processes and decisions related to arms control politics

- shaping political conditions at national and international levels

Research Questions

- In which way and by what methods can relevant technologies be evaluated?

- How will the technologies in question evolve in the future?

- Who are the actors and what scenarios are relevant?

- What is the dual-use potential of the relevant technologies?

- What consequences could result for international security?

- What kind of Preventive Arms Control measures are possible?

- How can compliance to treaty obligations be verified?

Structure of the Project Network

The Project Network consists of the framework project “Methods, Criteria and Concepts for Preventive Arms Control” and four case studies which deal with specific fields of technology:

- The relevance of biotechnology for the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC)

- Technical options for the disposal of civilian plutonium stockpiles to minimise proliferation risks

- The introduction of ballistic missile defences and its consequences for the Anti Ballistic Missiles Treaty (ABMT) and international security

- Microsystem technology – dangers and options for limitation

The groups that are involved in the Project Network are members of the research association “Natural Science, Disarmament and International Security” (FONAS). Specifically, these include: the Bochum Verification Project, the Center for Science and International Security (CENSIS), and the Interdisciplinary Research Group Science, Technology and Security (IANUS). In addition, the Hamburg Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (IFSH) is participating in the Project Network by providing social scientific expertise.

Presentation and Discussion

Intermediate results will be presented at special conferences to interested scientists and decision makers. Overviews on the status and progress of the projects including consequences, restricting measures and political options for each field will be compiled in “Briefing Papers”. The results of the studies are to be published in the usual manner, but it is also the explicit intention of the Project Network to discuss specific findings directly with decision-makers. A presentation meeting of the Project Network will be held one year after its start to present the results and discuss them with the arms control community. An early feedback by representatives of politics and science will help to identify workable ideas and suggestions and to avoid impasses.

The Future of Arms Control and Disarmament

Up to now the BWC and the ABMT have had a preventive function in regard to R&D of the respective technologies. This function could possibly be undermined by scientific-technological progress in the biotechnology area and the build-up of a comprehensive missile defence, respectively. Microsystem technology embodies a future technological field which may not only lead to further miniaturisation of weapons systems but also to completely new battlefield scenarios and strategies. Civilian plutonium stockpiles could create a potential for serious proliferation risks. In consideration of such developments and beyond, it will be discussed how existing arms control concepts can be extended to include preventive technological measures.

Project funding

The duration of the projects is one year (Jan.- Dec. 2000) All have been granted by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) in the context of “Measures of First Priority” for peace research and conflict studies related to FONAS. Financial support for further research will be sought from the planned German Peace Research Foundation.

Generalisation

Because the case studies deal with technologies which differ in development level, time horizon and implications for peace and security, divergent judgements and suggestions for arms control measures can be expected. Thus it will be even more important to analyse just how far the results of the case studies can be generalised. As far as possible, those concepts which can be related to different technology fields are to be identified and applied respectively. The Project Network is seen as a pilot project that attempts to probe the field of Preventive Arms Control with its relation to technological development in order to present results that can be beneficial for politics.

Cooperation

In order to guarantee a productive further development of the aims of the Project Network for arms control, the results of the research projects are to be discussed with members of the Federal Government and parliament as well as with social scientists. Additionally, it shall be clarified how a permanent prospective science and technology assessment can be institutionalised within a future peace and security policy.

Perspective

Other relevant developments may be analysed, e.g. the possibilities of developing nuclear weapons of the fourth generation, instruments of information warfare, or new kinds of chemical weapons. This, however, will be the subject of future projects based on the concepts for Preventive Arms Control and expertise resulting from the present Project Network.

Publications

- Jürgen Altmann, Wolfgang Liebert, Götz Neuneck, Jürgen Scheffran: Preventive Arms Control as a Prerequisite for Conversion of Military R&D in: J. Reppy, J. Rotblat, J. Holdren, V. Avduyevsky (Eds.): Conversion of Military R&D, London/New York 1998, pp. 255-271

- Wolfgang Liebert, Götz Neuneck: Wissenschaft und Technologie als Faktoren der Rüstungsdynamik, in: E. Müller /G. Neuneck (Eds.) Rüstungsmodernisierung und Rüstungskontrolle, Baden-Baden 1991, pp. 45-60

Project coordinators:

Dr. Jürgen Altmann, Dr. Götz Neuneck, Dr. Wolfgang Liebert

Contact Network Project

Dr. Götz Neuneck

IFSH, Falkenstein 1, D-22587 Hamburg

Phone: +49 +40/866 077-20/21, Fax: +49 +40/866 3615, email:

Framework project: Methods, Criteria and Concepts for Preventive Arms Control

The changing structure of the world today with respect to international security and world politics in general bears an enormous influence on the development of arms dynamics and the perils of new arms races. One of the most influential aspects of change can be found in the acceleration and diffusion of technological innovation and knowledge that can be used for military purposes.

Arms control holds implications for both natural and social sciences. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of arms dynamics as well as the development of the concept of Preventive Arms Control need to be approached from the perspective of both disciplines, and the contributions of the two fields are essential for the preparation of a suitable model for future arms control.

To fulfil its tasks, the Framework Project will work in close cooperation with the case studies to indicate general guideposts for the assessment and evaluation of technology and its implications for Preventive Arms Control. The starting point is a broadening of the perspective on the factors that influence armament and its control. This especially focuses on the phase prior to the introduction of new weapons and military technologies.

Objectives

The aim of the Framework Project is to analyse and develop concepts, terms and methods suitable for application to Preventive Arms Control. This project provides the framework for the individual case studies, which deal with particular fields of technology. It will furnish the general background for identifying problems and defining conditions for Preventive Arms Control. It will assist in formulating suggestions for preventive measures by gathering, evaluating and generalising the findings of the case studies. Furthermore, the project will develop general criteria and evaluation procedures that will promote a concept for technology assessment drafted from a systematic, scientific base. Finally this project has the responsiblity of generally coordinating the work of the different groups participating in the Project Network.

Research Questions

- Who are the actors and what are the principal structures and processes that surround and influence arms dynamics and innovation in military technology?

- What is the impact of technology on armament?

- What are the basic consequences for international security?

- What are the challenges an effective arms control has to meet?

- Which criteria can be identified to examine the military relevance of technologies?

- How should a systematic technology assessment be carried out?

- Can we describe general points of intervention suitable for preventive measures?

- How should effective measures for Preventive Arms Control be desgined in order to be introduced into politics successfully?

Research Group

Dr. Götz Neuneck (Head), Dipl.-Pol. Christian Mölling

Hamburg Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (IFSH) Falkenstein 1, D-22587 Hamburg

Tel.: 0049 (0) 40 866 077 20/-21/-70, Fax: +49 +40/866 3615,

email: ;

Case Study: Ballistic Missile Defence and its Consequences for the ABM Treaty and International Security

Research programs aimed at developing defence technologies against ballistic missiles, armed with nuclear, biological, or chemical warheads, have been carried out in several countries during the past thirty years. Recently, the discussion about the development and deployment of a national missile defence (NMD) for the USA gathered momentum again, culminating in legislation passed by the Congress demanding the deployment of such a system “as soon as technologically feasible.”

However, a nation-wide missile defence system would most certainly undermine, or even put an end to, the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty. The ABM treaty, dating back to 1972, is an agreement between the USA and Russia about the limitation of missile defence systems in order to maintain mutual deterrence. It is generally considered the cornerstone of strategic arms control and its end could well result in a serious drawback for a world-wide nuclear disarmament.

While the USA is pushing forward the development of the different NMD components, its European allies are still in the evaluation process. They are as yet undecided about their reaction to a possible missile threat and the necessity of a missile defence system. Arms control and diplomacy are still the first choice

Objectives:

- Considering the ABM treaty as an example of a classical arms control treaty, we will analyse the preventive function of such a treaty in the light of ongoing scientific and technological progress.

- We will investigate and evaluate the present status of the technology relevant to ballistic missile defence systems; furthermore, we will analyse the consequences of a possible deployment for international security and stability and its impact on strategical nuclear disarmament and arms control (START process).