SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME
Project no: 502687
NEEDS
New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability
INTEGRATED PROJECT
Priority 6.1: Sustainable Energy Systems and, more specifically,
Sub-priority 6.1.3.2.5: Socio-economic tools and concepts for energy strategy.
Deliverable n° 4.2 - RS In
“Final Report on the Harmonization of Methodologies”
Due date of deliverable.: August 2008
Actual submission date: November 2008
Start date of project: 1 September 2004Duration: 48 months
Richard Loulou and Denise Van Regemorter
with inputs from:
Roberto Dones; Bert Droste-Franke; Rainer Friedrich; Rolf Frischknecht; Stefan Hirschberg; Wolfram Krewitt; Socrates Kypreos; Phillip Preiss
Project co-funded by the European Commission within the Sixth Framework Programme (2004-2008)Dissemination Level
PU / Public / x
PP / Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission Services)
RE / Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission Services)
CO / Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission Services)
Foreword
This final report is an update of the interim report dated September 2005. It incorporates methodological changes that occurred as the project evolved. The main points of the methodology described in the Interim Report have been followed, but some changes did occur, in order to overcome some logistical obstacles and some data gaps.
The report is best read in conjunction with (or prior to reading) the forthcoming report on results for the scenarios simulated as part of the NEEDS project.
The report is the result of contributions and revisions by all streams concerned, and therefore reflects the consensus reached by the stream representatives on a coherent and feasible integration method.
Table of Contents
1Introduction
2General Integration approach
3Harmonization of exogenous data
3.1Technology data
3.2Scenarios
4Life Cycle Data
4.1Modeling of materials in TIMES
4.2The LCA methodology
4.3Integrating LCA data into TIMES
5External Costs
6Harmonization of LCA and External cost data
6.1Additional details on RS1a work
6.2Additional details on RS1b work
7Coherent Energy-Technology Pathways
8Integration VIA Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis......
9Final remarks and Future steps
1Introduction
This report is a deliverable of WP4 of Stream Integration. Its main objective is to establish the basis for harmonizing the methodologies used in the different research streams, which ensure that the final results and analyses of the NEEDS project are coherent and consistent with the general NEEDS objectives.
The Integration Stream is different from the other research streams in that its methodology must adapt to the various approaches used by the other streams, while ensuring that the entire project is coherent and faithful to its objectives. Generally speaking, the Integration Stream does not propose modifications of the methods and models used in other streams, with some minor exceptions dictated by circumstances and by mutual agreement of the research streams. Rather, it aims at organizing the flow of data coming from and feeding into the various streams, so as to guarantee that the entire project is coherent and achieves the desired objectives. In so doing, the Integration Stream must identify and harmonize two kinds of data: the exogenous input data that are common to the various streams, and the endogenous data (i.e. outputs) from some streams that become inputs into other streams.
The November 2004 Integration kick-off meeting provided an opportunity for identifying the detailed characteristics of the models and approaches used by the various streams, as well as triggering an in-depth reflection on ways to define an integration methodology. Following that meeting, each stream has engaged in its own examination of these issues, and some of these streams produced internal documents reflecting their views. These documents were then circulated in advance of the second Integration meeting held in Paris on March 7, 2005. The first draft of the present report was in great part inspired by the original document prepared by RS2a[1], and by the discussions held and the conclusions agreed upon during the Paris meeting. Between March and May 2005, additional exchanges between members of streams 2a, 2b, 1a, 1b, 1c, and 3a have further refined some aspects of the integration methodology, leading to draft 2 of the report. A general Integration Stream meeting was held in Brussels in May 2005, during which additional clarifications of the Integration methodology were made, and these were reflected in draft 3. After that, a general review of draft 3 was made by all streams, leading to the Interim report of September 2005.
Between September 2005 and June 2008, innumerable exchanges of data and comments took place between the various streams and indeed within each stream also. These exchanges were of two types, concerning respectively the data flows themselves, and the logistical aspects of the data flows. Both types of exchanges led to (relatively minor) changes in the methodology used, as mentioned at various places in this final report.
In section 2, we outline the general methodology for the Integration Stream, followed by several sections describing each element of the integration. Section 3 concerns the harmonization of exogenous data (technologies and scenarios). Section 4 discusses the integration of life cycle data in the technological database, and section 5 does the same for external costs. In section 6, additional aspects of integration and harmonization of LCA and external costs are discussed, when they occur directly and bi-laterally between the streams concerned without transiting by the energy model. Section 7 presents the coherent technological pathways, i.e. the type of results that obtained from the integrated pan-European energy model, and section 8 discusses the supplemental analysis of such pathways when additional indicators are accounted for. Section 9 closes this interim report by a sketch of the future steps required to implement and apply the integration approach described in this report.
2General Integration approach
As mentioned in the introduction, the main “handle” to integration is the harmonization of the data flows (exogenous and endogenous to the project) that are common to the various streams. Figure 1 sketches the main blocks of the entire project[2] and identifies the data links between them.
Figure 1. Interactions between research streams
Integration occurs at different levels. First, a large number of bi-lateral exchanges of data (concerning individual technologies and/or individual emissions) take place between stream 1a, 1b, 1c, 1d 2a, 2b and 3a. This data harmonization results, among other things, in the constitution of a common technology database for the electricity generation sector, used as one input to the TIMES modeling work of stream 2a. This database includes all techno-economic data as well as data concerning LCA and externalities for the technologies concerned. Second, a multi-lateral integration of data takes place, as follows: Stream 2a is responsible for providing the list and complete description of a number of scenarios (baseline and policy scenarios). Using the common technology database and the scenario information, RS2a then proceeds to simulate the technology and fuel pathways corresponding to each scenario, using the TIMES pan-European model. There is one pathway per scenario simulated. The results of these simulations are then made available to all streams. As much as possible, iterations of the above interactions are avoided for the sake of timeliness and budget conservation.
3Harmonization of exogenous data
The top box in figure 1 represents a large amount of data and assumptions that are pure inputs to all or some models (they are called exogenous for that reason). These data are of two types: a) technical economic data on the list of common technologies, and b) scenario assumptions. These data are initially provided by RS2a and made available to all streams. Technical and economic data on reference power plant technologies are also elaborated in RS1a and are harmonized between RS1a and RS2a. We give a few details on these data in the next two subsections. The fact that initial technological data are provided by RS2a should not hide the fact that the other streams are collecting a host of very detailed and focused data on technologies. Whereas the data provided by RS2a is the minimum core data on which harmonization is required across all streams, there is also data collected, created, and used by streams 1a, 1b, 1c, and 2b, that constitute large, detailed databases, and deliverables of these streams.
3.1Technology data
Since the TIMES model is an integrated techno-economic energy model[3], its database includes technologies in all sectors of the economy, namely: primary energy extraction, energy processing and conversion, energy transport, and end-uses by four main sectors (residential, commercial, industry, transportation). Thus the TIMES database concerns more than a thousand technologies in each country model. In addition, the pan-European model has a representation of the main energy exchanges between EU countries and also with non EU countries, where each energy trade is modeled via a trade technology (pipeline, trucking, shipping, transmission grid). Among these, an important subset of technologies have been targeted for detailed LCA analysis. They concern the vast majority of the electric power generation sector, which is the focus of stream RS1a, and the technologies used for the transport of imported oil and gas, which are the focus of stream RS1c. These constitute the set of common technologies. In what follows, we use the TIMES view of technology data, since it represents the minimum required data that serve as vehicle for the integration across all streams.
RS1a provides input on future cost estimates for power generation technologies based on the experience curve approach.
In TIMES, each technology is characterized by a number of techno-economic parameters, currently as follows (a more technical description of the parameters and their code names in TIMES was produced by RS2a):
–Plant size
–Date of first availability (for future technologies)
–Duration of technical life,
–Construction and dismantling lead-times (if applicable)
–Limits to penetration at each period (note that effective penetration is scenario dependent and is not specified as input data, but rather as a result of analysis)
–Energy efficiency
–Consumption and/or release of energy and some materials, at construction time, during operation, and at dismantling time. These inputs/outputs are specified per unit of capacity (GW installed) and/or of activity (e.g. per kWh produced)
–Atmospheric emission of an array of substances, at construction time, during operation, and at dismantling time. These emissions are specified per unit of capacity (GW installed) and/or of activity (e.g. per kWh produced)
–Maximum utilization factor (annual and/or seasonal)
–Unit costs (capital, fixed and variable annual) for the construction, operation, and dismantling of the technology
Hurdle rate reflecting investors electric power generation (EPG) technologies that are candidates for the common database. A few technologies have been added to this list. Although they were not mentioned as targets for LCA analysis in the original NEEDS proposal, it was felt by most streams that they deserved analysis. In particular, Nuclear GEN IV, on-shore wind, and PFBC fuel cell. The final list was produced after review by all stream leaders and by the appropriate Work Package coordinators.
General type of power plant / Energy carrier / Type of power plant / Plant size (MW)POWER PLANTS / hard coal / Condensing power plant / 350
Condensing power plant / 600
Condensation power plant / 800
IGCC / 450
IGCC power plant with a CO2 sequestration / 425
lignite / Condensation power plant / 1050
IGCC power plant with a CO2 sequestration / 950
heavy oil / Condensing power plant / 350
light oil / Gas turbine / 50
natural gas / Combined cycle / 500
Combined cycle / 1000
Combined Cycle plant with a CO2 sequestration / 475
Gas turbine / 50
nuclear power / EPR / 1756
natural gas / CC with an extraction condensing turbine / 50
CHP with an extraction condensing turbine / CC with an extraction condensing turbine / 100
CC with an extraction condensing turbine / 200
hard coal / Power plant with an extraction condensing turbine / 500
Power plant with an extraction condensing turbine / 300
Waste / Power plant with an extraction condensing turbine / 20
CHP back pressure / natural gas / CC / 100
CC / 200
hard coal / CHP back pressure / 200
Biomass CHP with an extraction condensing turbine / Straw / Power plant with an extraction condensing turbine / 20
Wood chips / Power plant with an extraction condensing turbine / 20
Fuel cells / natural gas / MCFC / 0.3
SOFC / 0.25
Biogas / MCFC / 0.3
SOFC / 0.25
Small CHP / natural gas / Internal combustion / 0.0055
Internal combustion / 0.2
biogas / Internal combustion / 0.0055
Internal combustion / 0.2
bio-fuels / Internal combustion / 0.0055
Internal combustion / 0.2
light oil / Internal combustion / 0.0055
Internal combustion / 0.2
Hot dry rock (HDR) / Geothermal / Organic ranking cycle (ORC) / 20
Photovoltaic power system / Solar / PV roof panel / 0.002
PV (plant size) / 0.5
Solar thermal / Solar / Solar thermal power plant / 100
Wind / Wind / Off-shore / 5
On-Shore wind velocity class 1 / 1.5
On-Shore wind velocity class 2 / 1.5
On-Shore wind velocity class 3 / 1.5
Hydro / Hydro / running river (small) / 0.2
running river (medium) / 5
running river (large) / 50
Lake / 100
pumped storage / 500
Table 1: Electric power generation (EPG) technologies in TIMES
3.2Scenarios
Since the NEEDS project examines the long term, its objective is not to provide a forecast, but rather to explore possible futures in a prospective manner. Each such future is characterized by a scenario that describes the demographic, societal, economic, and policy assumptions.
In TIMES, a scenario is defined via the following set of inputs:
- A set of values for each energy service demand at each time period (there are several dozens of energy service demands in the case of European TIMES);
- A set of exogenous prices and upper limits for energy and materials imported from the rest of the world (ROW), divided into main geographic sources;
- Specification of the energy reserves and resources for all primary energy forms extracted in the EU; and
- Specification of energy and environmental policies (if any). For instance, upper bounds on energy forms and on emissions; energy and emission taxes/subsidies, etc. In the absence of specific policies, the model will compute a competitive equilibrium, whereas when policies are specified, the equilibrium is partially regulated.
In order to ensure internal consistency, each scenario is constructed in two phases, organized hierarchically:
-First a small number of drivers are specified and quantified,;
-Then, the computation of economic growth rates the detailed inputs to TIMES is effected using a macroeconomic model, the computation of the detailed TIMES scenario parameters (demands, reserves, and prices)
The second level of the hierarchy is a direct consequence of the assumptions made for the top level drivers. The two levels of assumptions are sketched in Table 2.
Table 2. Hierarchy of scenario assumptions
Level I: Top level driversPopulation projections
Technical progress*
Lifestyles*
Trade regime
Environmental regime
Level II: a) Economic projections
Sectoral GDP growth rates
b) Detailed scenario assumptions
Demand trajectories for energy services
Energy resources and reserves
Energy prices and policies (taxes, subsidies, etc.)
Trade regimes
Emission policies (cap&trade, taxes, measures, etc)
* Technical progress and life style will be integrated in the autonomous efficiency improvement that will generate reference demand projections
Regarding the types of scenario envisioned, the general idea is to build first a Reference Scenario constructed as described above where all drivers are specified. This scenario is in line with the assumptions used in the energy projections elaborated for the EU Commission. For the other (alternate) scenarios we limit ourselves to a partial equilibrium framework in the sense that the population and macroeconomic assumptions remain those of the reference scenario. Therefore, only the last four elements of the scenario description in Table 2 are subject to modifications in the alternate scenarios. The alternate scenarios focus on two types of issue:
illustration the capabilities/possibilities of the models and approaches to analyse energy/environmental/research issues
evaluation of policies which are under discussion by the stakeholders at national and EU level.
A more detailed description of the various scenarios was elaborated as a separate deliverable of the NEEDS Project.
4Life Cycle Data
The integration of life cycle data into the TIMES Model represents one of the most complex and delicate tasks of the integration methodology. In order to understand the issues at stake and the methodology, it is useful to first state the main characteristics of the LCA approach and of the TIMES model.
The life cycle of a technology may be decomposed into three phases[4]: construction, operation (including upstream fuel supply), and dismantling. At each phase, some energy forms and materials are usually consumed and/or released, and the production and/or disposal of these materials and energy forms itself require additional materials and energy, as sketched in Figure 2. For example, consider the construction phase of a coal power plant. The construction consumes cement, bricks, steel, etc., and also some fuels to operate the construction machinery. The production of each of these inputs (fuels and materials) itself consumes additional fuels and materials (represented by the top boxes in figure 2), and releases emissions and perhaps other substances (represented by the bottom boxes). Similar inputs apply to the operation and the dismantling of the plant.
Figure 2. The life cycle of a typical technology
4.1Modeling of materials in TIMES
As mentioned in subsection 3.1, TIMES in principle possesses the required features to represent the consumption (or release) of energy and materials during the entire life cycle of each technology and fuel, as well as the atmospheric emissions produced at each stage.
However, while TIMES is very detailed and complete with respect to representing energy production and use, it is not as complete in its representation of the production and use of materials. TIMES models the production of a restricted list of materials as indicated in Table 3. Furthermore, the use of these materials is specified as an exogenous TIMES demand category. It is not envisioned, within the scope of the NEEDS project, to tie the demands for materials to the endogenous consumption of materials by the TIMES technologies. To illustrate this last point, consider cement: in TIMES, the consumption of cement is specified by an exogenous demand for cement in the reference scenario. Although this cement demand may be altered by the model in alternate scenarios (due to the price elasticity of cement demand), it is not envisioned to directly tie the endogenous consumption of cement (due for instance to the construction of nuclear power plants) to the cement demand.