Squirrel-Killers

SQUIRREL-KILLERS

Update Briefs #5, Part B

January 19, 2017

Dr. John F. Schunk, Editor

FIRST NEGATIVE BRIEFS

08. IVORY TRADE

09. SOUTH CHINA SEA

10. TRADE WAR

SECOND NEGATIVE BRIEFS

11. HUMAN RIGHTS Disad

12. T.P.P.: Solvency

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SK/UPDATE5-08. IVORY TRADE

1. CHINA HAS PLEDGED TO SHUT DOWN IVORY TRADE IN 2017

SK/UP5-08.01) Javier C. Hernandez, THE NEW YORK TIMES, January 2, 2017, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. China's vow to shut down its commercial ivory trade by the end of thisyear was welcomed by environmentalists as a turning point in the fight againstpoachers. Activists cheered the government's pledge for swift action, and thestate-run news media called it a "monumental win for elephants."

SK/UP5-08.02) Javier C. Hernandez, THE NEW YORK TIMES, January 2, 2017, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. But in making the decision, announced on Friday, to bring the world's largestivory market to a halt, the Chinese government also saw benefits for itself. Theban reinforced President Xi Jinping's campaign against corrupt officials, whohave been known to use ivory products as bribes.It galvanized support among African allies, which have long pressed Beijing tohelp curb poaching, as China looks to expand its influence on the continent.And the decision allowed China to burnish its image as a global guardian of theenvironment, at a time when advocates have raised doubts about the ability ofthe United States to lead on environmental issues.

2. CHINA HAS MANY MOTIVES TO FULFILL ITS PLEDGE

SK/UP5-08.03) Javier C. Hernandez, THE NEW YORK TIMES, January 2, 2017, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. Peter Knights, the executive director of WildAid, which lobbied heavily on theivory issue, said Chinese leaders had come to realize that taking action onenvironmental matters like climate change and illegal wildlife trade wasessential to cementing China's place as a global superpower."With power comes responsibility," said Mr. Knights, whose organization hasspent $3 million over the last four years on an advertising campaign in Chinaagainst the ivory trade. "They know it's not worth damaging China'sinternational image to be involved in this business."

SK/UP5-08.04) Javier C. Hernandez, THE NEW YORK TIMES, January 2, 2017, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. China's eagerness to act, analysts say, also reflected a desire by thegovernment to raise its profile on environmental issues. China has alreadyemerged as a global power broker on climate change.Lin Li, a Chinese environmentalist who leads the Beijing offices of theconservation group WWF, said China seemed more willing to tackle internationalmatters under Mr. Xi. "The top leaders are really looking to be environmentalleaders," she said. "They want to mobilize the masses, not just within China."

3. CHINA’S ACTION IS TESTAMENT TO EFFICACY OF U.S. POLICY

SK/UP5-08.05) Javier C. Hernandez, THE NEW YORK TIMES, January 2, 2017, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. At the same time, the United States was pressing China to join forces to combatpoaching, and in 2015, President Obama and President Xi announced that they hadagreed to shut down the markets in their respective countries.

SK/UPDATE5-09. SOUTH CHINA SEA

1. TILLERSON’S SOUTH CHINA SEA THREATS LACK CREDIBILITY

SK/UP5-09.01) Michael Holtz, THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, January 13, 2017, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. The 3,000 acres of artificial land China has built on reefs and shoals in theSouth China Sea are no longer mere piles of sand.Satellite imagesreleased inDecember revealed their transformation into floating fortresses, complete withanti-aircraft guns, radar stations, and military-length runways.These are the controversial islands that Rex Tillerson, Donald Trump's nomineefor secretary of State, said the new administration would not allow China toaccess - a proposal that Chinese state media warned Friday could lead to war.

SK/UP5-09.02) Michael Holtz, THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, January 13, 2017, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. And Tillerson's threat, should it become reality, could raisetensions to a much higher level.Still, experts including Professor Ross of Boston College consider such anoutcome unlikely."Tillerson's remarks may be appropriate to secure confirmation from the Senate,but as policy they are not at all helpful," he says. "As secretary of State,Tillerson would likely adopt a far more prudent approach to China's maritimeactivities."

SK/UP5-09.03) Anne Gearan, THE WASHINGTON POST, January 15, 2017, p. A13, LexisNexis Academic.At his Senate confirmation hearing, Tillerson also balanced assertions thatChina has made empty promises on North Korea and is behaving illegally in theSouth China Sea by saying there are no plans to do away with the one-Chinapolicy concerning Taiwan.

2. CHINA IS NOT RESPONDING AGGRESSIVELY

SK/UP5-09.04) Michael Holtz, THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, January 13, 2017, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. So far Chinese officials have chosen to play down Tillerson's tough talk. LuKang, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, stressed mutual respect andcooperation with the United States in a daily news briefing Thursday. Hedeclined to answer a reporter's question about what Beijing might do if the USmoved to block China from the islands, brushing it off as a "hypotheticalquestion."

SK/UP5-09.05) David Iaconangelo, THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, January 12, 2017, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. China's foreign ministry sounded a subdued tone in its first reaction toTillerson's comments, reported the Guardian, with spokesman Lu Kang stressing"non-confrontation, non-conflict, mutual benefit and win-win cooperation" as thebedrock of China-US relations.

SK/UP5-09.06) Michael Forsythe, THE NEW YORK TIMES, January 12, 2017, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. Lu Kang, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, declined to answer areporter's question about what Beijing might do if the United States Navy movedto deny China access to the islands, saying it was a "hypothetical question."

SK/UPDATE5-10. TRADE WAR

1. TRUMP’S TOUGH TALK ON TRADE WILL MODERATE

SK/UP5-10.01) Anne Gearan, THE WASHINGTON POST, January 15, 2017, p. A13, LexisNexis Academic. Donald Trump talked tough on China during his presidential run, blaming thecountry for the loss of American jobs, lobbing accusations of unfair currencymanipulation or hostile trade practices, and suggesting that the United Stateslevy enormous tariffs on Chinese goods."Look at what China is doing to our country," Trump said in September during apresidential debate with Democrat Hillary Clinton."They're using our country as a piggy bank to rebuild China," he added. "We haveto stop our jobs from being stolen from us."Several analysts predicted that Trump's tough talk on tariffs and jobs willrecede as he contends with the complexity of intertwined economies and thereality of China's military expansion.

SK/UP5-10.02) Anne Gearan, THE WASHINGTON POST, January 15, 2017, p. A13, LexisNexis Academic. At the same time, Trump's choice to become U.S. ambassador to China, Iowa Gov.Terry Branstad, has long ties to the country and is seen as an olive branch tothe Xi government.

SK/UP5-10.03) Anne Gearan, THE WASHINGTON POST, January 15, 2017, p. A13, LexisNexis Academic.Despite his tough trade talk, Trump was seen by many Chinese officials as thefar preferable candidate, given Clinton's long history as a critic of humanrights, trade and military practices in China. Trump, some Chinese analysts saidbefore the election, appeared likely to discount long-standing U.S. allianceswith Japan and South Korea and withdraw from the Pacific region.

2. TRUMP WILL NOT START A TRADE WAR

SK/UP5-10.04) Simon Denyer & Jonathan O’Connell, THE WASHINGTON POST, December 27, 2016, p. A1, LexisNexis Academic. Yet there is one potential silver lining, some business leaders privately say.Perhaps Trump's interest in doing business in China will prevent him starting atrade war with Beijing that could wreak havoc on both nations' economies.

SK/UP5-10.05) Simon Denyer & Jonathan O’Connell, THE WASHINGTON POST, December 27, 2016, p. A1, LexisNexis Academic. If Trump Hotels goes ahead with its efforts to expand to China, or even if itonly lays plans to do so after his term in office, it could hugely complicateone of the most important foreign policy relationships Trump will have tonegotiate during his presidency. And the suspicion that Trump as president mightbe trying to badger China or butter it up to promote his business there riskscoloring perceptions of his every move in regard to Beijing - even those thatare completely aboveboard.

3. CHINA DOES NOT WANT A TRADE WAR

SK/UP5-10.06) Anne Gearan, THE WASHINGTON POST, January 15, 2017, p. A13, LexisNexis Academic.In a mostly upbeat interviewthis month, China's ambassador to the UnitedStates, Cui Tiankai, acknowledged that Trump is a new kind of U.S. leader."Today's world is changing very fast in many ways, so you do have new styles,new personalities and maybe new developments. Some of them could beunprecedented," Cui said on CGTN, a state-owned English-language channel."But I think for our relationship, for the relations between China and theUnited States, it is determined by the larger common interests," Cui said. "Intoday's world, the major countries have to work together to deal with so manychallenges - economic challenges, financial challenges and also securitychallenges."A trade war, he added, would hurt both countries.

SK/UP5-10.07) Anne Gearan, THE WASHINGTON POST, January 15, 2017, p. A13, LexisNexis Academic. China's own political turmoil as it prepares for what could be a turnover ofpower following a Communist Party Congress later this year is also likely toaffect U.S. relations. Coupled with the slowdown in China's economy, thepolitical uncertainty is likely to mean the country's leaders are preoccupiedwith internal affairs.

SK/UP5-10.08) Fareed Zakaria, THE WASHINGTON POST, January 13, 2017, p. A17, LexisNexis Academic. "Trump is a negotiator, and the rhetoric is all part of his opening bid," said aChinese scholar, who would not agree to be named (as was true of mostpolicymakers and experts I spoke with). "He likes to make deals," the scholarcontinued, "and we are good dealmakers as well. There are several agreements wecould make on trade." As one official noted to me, Beijing could simply agreewith Trump that it is indeed a "currency manipulator" - although it has actuallybeen trying to prop up the yuan over the past two years. After such anadmission, market forces would likely make the currency drop in value, loweringthe price of Chinese goods.

SK/UPDATE5-11. HUMAN RIGHTS Disad

A. CHINA MASSIVELY VIOLATES HUMAN RIGHTS

SK/UP5-11.01) Javier C. Hernandez, THE NEW YORK TIMES, August 24, 2016, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. An adviser to the United Nations has sharply criticized President Xi Jinping's crackdown on dissent in China, warning on Tuesday that the Communist Party's tight grip on civil society was undermining basic rights and risking mass unrest. The adviser, Philip G. Alston, said that the party's dominance of the legal system had left Chinese citizens with few avenues to complain about issues like pollution and inequality. He dismissed the process for filing grievances “window dressing,” and said party officials had suppressed meaningful policy debates.

SK/UP5-11.02) Bruce J. Dickson [Professor of Political Science & International Affairs, George Washington U.], LOS ANGELES TIMES, August 12, 2016, p. A11, LexisNexis Academic. Since Xi Jinping became president in 2013, the scope of repression has increased. The party has tightened control over media content, arrested human rights lawyers and warned scholars against discussing topics such as universal values, civil rights, civil society, press freedoms and judicial independence.

B. CHINA VIEWS U.S. ENGAGMENT AS A SIGN OF WEAKNESS

SK/UP5-11.03) John Pomfret, THE WASHINGTON POST, January 11, 2017, p. H12, LexisNexis Academic. Obama administration officials had given China other indications that thepresident wanted to be China's partner, even its friend. Traveling to Beijing inFebruary 2009, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton signaled that theadministration would not let its traditional support of human rights "interferewith the global economic crisis, the global climate change crisis and thesecurity crisis." And in the first China-related speech from the administration,Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg made an unprecedented public call for"a core, if tacit, bargain" between the two powers.Washington needed to show China that it welcomed China's rise, he said on Oct.5, 2009. In exchange, China should assure America that its rise "will not comeat the expense of the security and well-being of others." Steinberg called for"strategic reassurance" on both sides of the Pacific.The Chinese saw the olive branches as a sign of weakness. "StrategicReassurance? Yes, Please!" went the headline in the People's Daily. The UnitedStates should reassure China, it said, by ending all arms sales to Taiwan andall military surveillance activities off China's coast.

SK/UP5-11.04) John Pomfret, THE WASHINGTON POST, January 11, 2017, p. H12, LexisNexis Academic. Then, just weeks later, Obama was subject to the shabbiest treatment of anyAmerican president visiting China ever; his remarks were censored during aquestion-and-answer session with students in Shanghai. Whereas a previousChinese president, Jiang Zemin, had engaged in a wide-ranging joint newsconference with a visiting President Bill Clinton in 1998, Hu did not answer asingle question with Obama when the two met the press. The public encounter wasso frosty that it was parodied on "Saturday Night Live."

C. U.S. ENGAGEMENT WILL INCREASE HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES

SK/UP5-11.05) John Pomfret, THE WASHINGTON POST, December 11, 2016, p. B2, LexisNexis Academic. America's unwillingness to demand reciprocity from China on such fronts has harmed the relationship by effectively rewarding Chinese bad behavior, which encourages more.

SK/UP5-11.06) Jane Perlez, THE NEW YORK TIMES, September 8, 2016, p. A8, LexisNexis Academic. “Decades of experience should make clear to Washington that Beijing responds only to the expectation of unpleasant consequences,” said Sophie Richardson, the China director for Human Rights Watch. “Why not threaten sanctions, cut out the pointless pomp or visibly align with peaceful critics of the government?” she said. “On other diplomatic, economic and security issues, governments recognize and use these points of leverage. Why not on human rights?”

SK/UPDATE5-12. T.P.P.: Solvency

1. T.P.P. CANNOT RESTRAIN CHINA

SK/UP5-12.01) Clyde Prestowitz [President, Economic Strategy Institute], THE NEW YORK TIMES, August 23, 2016, p. A23, LexisNexis Academic. The president often speaks of the TPP as a tool that will prevent China from writing the rules of trade for the future. But even as we negotiate the TPP, China is negotiating its Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership with all the Asia-Pacific TPP countries, as well as South Korea, the Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Indonesia, Myanmar and India. That deal may not be as sophisticated or comprehensive as the TPP, but that isn't preventing all the Asia-Pacific countries from rushing to sign up, just as they have for China's new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. It's already clear that the TPP is not going to stop China from writing some of the future rules of world trade.

SK/UP5-12.02) Clyde Prestowitz [President, Economic Strategy Institute], THE NEW YORK TIMES, August 23, 2016, p. A23, LexisNexis Academic. In the days of Pax Americana, America could use trade deals to buy allies and geopolitical influence. Offering free and largely nonreciprocal access to the huge American market, coverage under the American defense umbrella and American foreign direct investment -- along with transfer of production and technology by major American companies -- all in return for geopolitical cooperation was a great deal. But those days are over. The American market is open to virtually all comers; what tariffs remain are small hurdles for countries looking for American consumers. The United States still has significant technology and intellectual capital, but it's no longer alone in that category. And whereas all trade roads once led to (or through) the United States, today it is just one part of a global network of supply chains.

SK/UP5-12.03) Fareed Zakaria, THE WASHINGTON POST, January 13, 2017, p. A17, LexisNexis Academic. Chinese officials point out that they have economic weapons as well. China is ahuge market for U.S. goods, and last year the country invested $46 billion inthe U.S. economy (according to the Rhodium Group). But the officials' calmderives from the reality that China is becoming far less dependent on foreignmarkets for its growth. Ten years ago, exports made up a staggering 37 percentof China'sgross domestic product. Today they make up just 22 percent and arefalling.

2. CHINA WILL NOT JOIN THE T.P.P.

SK/UP5-12.04) Christi Parsons, LOS ANGELES TIMES, September 4, 2016, p. A3, LexisNexis Academic. China refused to participate in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the signature trade pact Obama is still trying to pass.