K. Lesley Szostek, Peter H. Becker

Appendix A to:

Marine primary productivity in the wintering area influences survival and recruitment in a migratory seabird

K. Lesley Szostek, Peter H. Becker

Institute of Avian Research „Vogelwarte Helgoland“, An der Vogelwarte 21, 26386 Wilhelmshaven, Germany

Correspondence:

Lesley Szostek, Institute of Avian Research „Vogelwarte Helgoland“, An der Vogelwarte 21, 26386 Wilhelmshaven, Germany

Phone: +49 4421 9689 0

Fax: +49 4421 9689 55

E-mail:

Definitions:

Ф = survival probability (phi)

p =re-encounter probability

ψ = transition probability (psi)

P = prospector (inexperienced non-breeder)

R = recruit (first time breeder)

B = experienced breeder

t = time dependence (annual variation)

. = constant (no variation)

+ = covariate was included as linear function

* = covariate was included as interaction

sub = compound rate of 1y- and 2y-old birds (subadult)

3y = 3y-old birds

4y= 4y-old birds

5y = 5y-old birds

ad = adult birds

Num. Par. = Number of estimable Parameters

AIC = Akaike’s Information Criterion

Age = all age groups different

2age = age groups subadult and older birds different

3age = age groups subadult, 3y-old and older birds different

prim= primary productivity

sNAOI= spring North Atlantic Oscillation Index

wSOI= winter Southern Oscillation Index

wFood= winter food abundance

herring/sprat = abundance of herring/sprat

Appendix Table A.1: We used a Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model (Lebreton et al. 1992) to estimate apparent survival for different age groups. We first ran a constant and ageneral model and then tested different scenarios for re-detection rate, adding time or age-dependence, while keeping the apparent survival parameter constant. Once a good fit was found, we did the same for the survival parameter until an overall best fit to the data was established. As 1-year-olds remain in the wintering habitat for their first summer after fledging (Becker and Ludwigs 2004), we constrained the survival parameter to 1 so that apparent survival for 2-year-olds equalled the apparent survival from fledging to age 2 years (= subadult survival).Highest ranking model is in bold case. The highest ranking model was: Ф(t*sub, t*3y, 309 t*ad), p(3age). This model suggested distinct rates of annually varying survival for subadults, 3-year-old birds and birds older than three. There appeared to be no difference in survival between ages once individualsreached the age of four years. Re-detection probability was distinct for subadults, 3-year-olds and birds older than 3 years, but there was no annual variability.

Survival / Re-detection / AICc / Delta AICc / Model Likelihood / Num. Par. / Deviance / Comment
t*sub, t*3y, t*ad / 3age / 19601.439 / 0 / 0.0004 / 59 / 6173.815
t*sub, t*3y, t*4y, t*ad / 3age / 19707.049 / 105.610 / 0.0000 / 75 / 6247.059
t*sub, t*3y, t*4y, t*5y, t*ad / 3age / 19723.389 / 121.950 / 0.0000 / 104 / 6204.511
t*age / 3age / 19747.753 / 146.314 / 0.0000 / 190 / 6052.524
t*age / t*age / 19758.300 / 156.861 / 0.0000 / 206 / 6029.974 / general model
4age / 3age / 19880.644 / 279.205 / 0.0000 / 8 / 6555.607
3age / 3age / 19881.619 / 280.180 / 0.0000 / 7 / 6558.585
t / 3age / 20329.632 / 728.193 / 0.0000 / 24 / 6972.506
. / 3age / 20920.708 / 1.319.269 / 0.0000 / 5 / 7601.678
. / 2age / 20921.073 / 1.319.634 / 0.0000 / 4 / 7604.045
. / 4age / 20922.696 / 1.321.257 / 0.0000 / 6 / 7601.664
. / age / 20930.895 / 1.329.456 / 0.0000 / 21 / 7579.792
t / t / 23590.721 / 3.989.282 / 0.0000 / 40 / 10201.418
. / t / 24248.535 / 4.647.096 / 0.0000 / 21 / 10897.432
. / . / 25562.800 / 5.961.361 / 0.0000 / 2 / 12249.774 / constant model

Appendix Table A.2: Multi-state model selection with three states (prospector P, local recruit R, experienced breeder B) without covariates. Highest ranking model is in bold case. The re-encounter parameter was modelled first and in all subsequent models the highest ranking re-encounter model (best p) was used. Transition parameter(from prospector to recruit = recruitment)was modelled second and in all subsequent models the highest ranking transition model (best ψ) and the highest ranking re-encounter model was used. The survival parameters were modelled last, giving an overall best model, which was later used for covariate testing.

Ф (P) / Ф (R) / Ф (B) / p (P) / p (R) / p (B) / ψ(PR) / AICc / Delta AICc / AICc Weights / Model Likelihood / Num. Par / Deviance / Comment
t*sub, .ad / t / t / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76661 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 210 / 60903 / model for covariate testing
t*sub, .ad / t / t*sub, t*ad / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76662 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 213 / 60911
t*sub, t*ad / t / t / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76664 / 3 / 0 / 0 / 227 / 60877
t*sub, .ad / t / t*sub-3y, t*ad / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76665 / 4 / 0 / 0 / 217 / 60899
t*sub, .ad / t / t*sub-4y, t*ad / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76666 / 6 / 0 / 0 / 225 / 60884
t*sub, .ad / t*sub-3y, t*ad / t / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76671 / 10 / 0 / 0 / 218 / 60903
t*sub-3y, .ad / t / t / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76673 / 12 / 0 / 0 / 227 / 60886
t*sub, .ad / t / t*sub-5y, t*ad / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76676 / 15 / 0 / 0 / 240 / 60862
t*sub, .ad / t / t*sub-6y, t*ad / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76677 / 16 / 0 / 0 / 254 / 60834
t*sub, .ad / t / t / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76678 / 17 / 0 / 0 / 223 / 60899
t*sub-4y, .ad / t / t / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76685 / 24 / 0 / 0 / 243 / 60865
t*sub, .ad / t*sub-4y, t*ad / t / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76695 / 34 / 0 / 0 / 234 / 60894
t*sub-5y, .ad / t / t / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76702 / 41 / 0 / 0 / 258 / 60851
t*sub, .ad / t*sub-4y, .ad / t / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76709 / 48 / 0 / 0 / 238 / 60900
t*sub-6y, .ad / t / t / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76716 / 56 / 0 / 0 / 272 / 60836
t*sub-6y, t*ad / t / t / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76726 / 65 / 0 / 0 / 285 / 60818
t*sub-6y, age*ad / t / t / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76727 / 67 / 0 / 0 / 281 / 60828
t*sub, .ad / t*sub-5y, t*ad / t / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76744 / 83 / 0 / 0 / 268 / 60872
t*sub, .ad / t*sub-6y, t*ad / t / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76764 / 103 / 0 / 0 / 281 / 60864
age / t / t / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76837 / 177 / 0 / 0 / 206 / 61094
age / age / t / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76900 / 239 / 0 / 0 / 202 / 61165
age / age / age / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76913 / 252 / 0 / 0 / 201 / 61180
t*age / t / t / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 76993 / 383 / 0 / 0 / 473 / 60686 / general model
t / t / t / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 77062 / 402 / 0 / 0 / 210 / 61311
. / . / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 77188 / 527 / 0 / 0 / 152 / 61556 / best ψ
. / . / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-6y, .ad / 77202 / 541 / 0 / 0 / 168 / 61537
. / . / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-4y, .ad / 77216 / 555 / 0 / 0 / 137 / 61615
. / . / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t*sub-7y, .ad / 77221 / 560 / 0 / 0 / 182 / 61527
. / . / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / 7age / 77277 / 616 / 0 / 0 / 88 / 61775
. / . / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / 6age / 77279 / 618 / 0 / 0 / 87 / 61779
. / . / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / 8age / 77279 / 618 / 0 / 0 / 89 / 61775
. / . / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / age / 77289 / 628 / 0 / 0 / 98 / 61767
. / . / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / 5age / 77316 / 655 / 0 / 0 / 86 / 61819
. / . / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / t / 78661 / 2001 / 0 / 0 / 102 / 63131
. / . / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 6age / . / . / 78838 / 2177 / 0 / 0 / 83 / 63347 / best p
. / . / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 7age / . / . / 78840 / 2179 / 0 / 0 / 84 / 63347
. / . / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / age / . / . / 78851 / 2191 / 0 / 0 / 94 / 63338
. / . / . / t*sub-5y, .ad / 5age / . / . / 78868 / 2207 / 0 / 0 / 82 / 63379
. / . / . / t*sub-4y, .ad / age / . / . / 78872 / 2211 / 0 / 0 / 78 / 63391
. / . / . / t*sub-3y, .ad / age / . / . / 78889 / 2228 / 0 / 0 / 61 / 63442
. / . / . / age / age / . / . / 78971 / 2310 / 0 / 0 / 39 / 63569
. / . / . / age / age / age / . / 78978 / 2317 / 0 / 0 / 58 / 63537
. / . / . / t*sub,.ad / age / . / . / 79036 / 2375 / 0 / 0 / 43 / 63626
. / . / . / t*age / . / . / . / 79277 / 2616 / 0 / 0 / 237 / 63469
. / . / . / age / . / . / . / 79337 / 2676 / 0 / 0 / 23 / 63966
. / . / . / t / t / t / . / 83198 / 6537 / 0 / 0 / 45 / 67783
. / . / . / t / t / . / . / 83203 / 6542 / 0 / 0 / 64 / 67750
. / . / . / t / . / . / . / 83228 / 6567 / 0 / 0 / 26 / 67851
. / . / . / . / . / . / . / 83739 / 7078 / 0 / 0 / 7 / 68400 / constant model

Appendix Table A.3: Multi-state model selection with three states (prospector P, local recruit R, experienced breeder B) and including covariates in apparent survival and recruitment (= transition parameter from prospector to recruit ψ (PR)). Covariates were included in the highest ranking model without covariates (see Table I.1). Highest ranking covariate model is in bold case.

Survival / Recruitment / AICc / DeltAICc / AICc Weights / Model Likelihood / Num. Par / Deviance
+ prim S(P) / * prim psi(R - sub-5y) / 76609.3634 / 0.0000 / 0.80236 / 1.00000 / 184 / 60911.695
+ prim S(P) / 76613.5894 / 4.2260 / 0.09698 / 0.12090 / 184 / 60915.921
* prim psi(R - sub-5y) / 76616.9313 / 7.5679 / 0.01824 / 0.02270 / 188 / 60911.018
+ wFood S(R) / 76617.6682 / 8.3048 / 0.01262 / 0.01570 / 186 / 60915.878
+ wSOI S(PR) / 76618.7333 / 9.3699 / 0.00741 / 0.00920 / 188 / 60912.820
+ sNAOI S(PRB) / 76619.6694 / 10.3060 / 0.00464 / 0.00580 / 189 / 60911.694
+ sprat S(R) / 76619.6704 / 10.3070 / 0.00464 / 0.00580 / 189 / 60911.695
+ wSOI S(P) / 76620.1943 / 10.8309 / 0.00357 / 0.00440 / 188 / 60914.281
+ herring S(R) / 76620.5484 / 11.1850 / 0.00298 / 0.00370 / 189 / 60912.572
+ prim PSI(t*sub-5y) / 76620.8223 / 11.4589 / 0.00261 / 0.00330 / 188 / 60914.908
+ prim S(PRB) / 76621.5138 / 12.1504 / 0.00184 / 0.00230 / 190 / 60911.476
+ prim S(PR) / 76621.5148 / 12.1514 / 0.00184 / 0.00230 / 190 / 60911.476
+ sNAOI S(P) / 76621.6878 / 12.3244 / 0.00169 / 0.00210 / 190 / 60911.649
+ wSOI S(R) / 76621.6878 / 12.3244 / 0.00169 / 0.00210 / 190 / 60911.650
+ sNAOI S(PR) / 76621.6888 / 12.3254 / 0.00169 / 0.00210 / 190 / 60911.651
+ prim S(P) / 76623.1185 / 13.7551 / 0.00083 / 0.00100 / 191 / 60911.018
* wFood psi(R - sub-5y) / 76623.1635 / 13.8001 / 0.00081 / 0.00100 / 191 / 60911.062
* wSOI S(R) / 76623.2411 / 13.8777 / 0.00078 / 0.00100 / 185 / 60923.512
+ sNAOI S(R) / 76623.5765 / 14.2131 / 0.00066 / 0.00080 / 191 / 60911.476
+ sprat S(PRB) / 76623.5775 / 14.2141 / 0.00066 / 0.00080 / 191 / 60911.476
+ sNAOI psi(R - sub-5y) / 76623.5785 / 14.2151 / 0.00066 / 0.00080 / 191 / 60911.477
+ wSOI S(PRB) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.017
+ wFood S(PRB) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.017
+ sprat S(P) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.017
+ wFood S(P) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.017
* sNAOI S(P) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.016
+ herring psi(R - sub-5y) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.017
+ sprat psi(R - sub-5y) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.016
* sNAOI S(PR) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.016
* sNAOI S(PRB) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.017
* wFood S(PRB) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.016
* sNAOI S(PR) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.017
* sprat S(PRB) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.017
* wFood S(P) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.017
* sprat S(P) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.017
* wSOI S(P) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.016
* prim S(PRB) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.017
* prim S(PR) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.017
* prim S(P) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.017
* sNAOI psi(R - sub-5y) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.017
* herring S(P) / 76625.1806 / 15.8172 / 0.00030 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.016
+ aNAOI S(PRB) / 76625.1816 / 15.8182 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.018
+ sprat S(PR) / 76625.1816 / 15.8182 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.018
+ herring S(P) / 76625.1816 / 15.8182 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.018
+ wFood S(PR) / 76625.1816 / 15.8182 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.018
* wSOI S(PR) / 76625.1816 / 15.8182 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.018
+ wFood PSI(t*sub-5y) / 76625.1816 / 15.8182 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.018
+ herring S(PRB) / 76625.1816 / 15.8182 / 0.00030 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.017
* herring S(PRB) / 76625.1816 / 15.8182 / 0.00030 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.018
* wSOI S(PRB) / 76625.1826 / 15.8192 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.019
* herring S(PR) / 76625.1826 / 15.8192 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.018
* wFood S(PR) / 76625.1826 / 15.8192 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.019
* wSOI psi(R - sub-5y) / 76625.1826 / 15.8192 / 0.00029 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.018
* herring S(PR) / 76625.1826 / 15.8192 / 0.00030 / 0.00040 / 192 / 60911.019
+ wSOI PSI(t*sub-5y) / 76626.9368 / 17.5734 / 0.00012 / 0.00010 / 190 / 60916.899
* sprat psi(R - sub-5y) / 76627.2440 / 17.8806 / 0.00011 / 0.00010 / 193 / 60911.017
+ herring S(PR) / 76627.2440 / 17.8806 / 0.00011 / 0.00010 / 193 / 60911.017
* wFood S(R) / 76627.2450 / 17.8816 / 0.00011 / 0.00010 / 193 / 60911.018
* sprat S(PR) / 76627.2530 / 17.8896 / 0.00010 / 0.00010 / 193 / 60911.025
* herring psi(R - sub-5y) / 76629.3078 / 19.9444 / 0.00004 / 0.00000 / 194 / 60911.017
* herring S(R) / 76630.0705 / 20.7071 / 0.00003 / 0.00000 / 191 / 60917.970
* sprat S(R) / 76630.0715 / 20.7081 / 0.00003 / 0.00000 / 191 / 60917.970
covariate model / 76662.3725 / 53.0091 / 0.00000 / 0.00000 / 210 / 60911.016
general model / 76993,3582 / 383,9948 / 0,00000 / 0,00000 / 473 / 60685,836
constant model / 83738.5920 / 7129.2286 / 0.00000 / 0.00000 / 7 / 68400.458