May 2014CSPI: Alternative Strategic Directions Technical Appendices
Southern BC Chinook Strategic Planning Initiative:
Alternative Strategic Directions for the Management of Southern BC Chinook Salmon
TECHNICAL APPENDICES
Contents
Technical Appendix A: Current Status Summary
Technical Appendix B: Harvest map
Technical Appendix C: Strategies Brainstorm
Technical Appendix D: Quantitative Results of TWG Evaluation: Box Plots
Technical Appendix E: Qualitative Results of TWG Evaluation
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May 2014CSPI: Alternative Strategic Directions Technical Appendices
Technical Appendix A: Current Status Summary
The following materials were developed for the November 18 SPC workshop based on information presented at the November 8 workshop and the Science Panel Report.
SBC Chinook – High-level Summary of Current Situation, by CU Group
Region / CU Group / Status / Hatcheries / Harvest / Habitat(summarized from presentation) / (summarized from presentations on Nov. 8 and Science wkshp) / (from 1999-2011 data presented; top 2 Cdn fisheries listed) / (from previous pressure-state indicator project)
Lower Fraser River / 4 of 6 CUs show >30% decline in 3 generations / 2013 Production Plan = 2.9 million
3 of 6 CUs with moderate/high level of enhancement / Harrison: 11% in WCVI troll, 5% in SoG sport
Chilliwack: 6% in WCVI troll, 6% terminal sport / Spawning watersheds:
24% at HIGH risk
56% at MOD risk
Middle & Upper Fraser / 4 of 5 CUs show >30% decline in 3 generations / No active enhancement
1 of 5 CUs with moderate/high level of enhancement / Dome: 40% terminal FN net, 12% Juan de Fuca sport / Spawning watersheds:
16% at HIGH risk
49% at MOD risk
Thompson River (North, South, Lower) / 6 of 8 CUs show >30% decline in 3 generations / 2013 Production Plan = 1.3 million
2 of 8 CUs with moderate/high level of enhancement / Shuswap: 10% NBC sport, 7% NBC troll
Nicola: 6% terminal FN net, 5% Nicola mouth sport / Spawning watersheds:
36% at HIGH risk
49% at MOD risk
Lower South Coast & Other / 4 of 9 CUs show >30% decline in 3 generations / 2013 Production Plan = 16.2 million
5 of 9 CUs with moderate/high level of enhancement / Cowichan: 27%SoG sport, 9% WCVI troll
Puntledge: 10% SoG sport, 7% NBC sport
Nanaimo: 24%SoG sport, 6% terminal commercial net
Big Qualicum: 9%SoG sport, 8% NBC sport / Spawning watersheds:
61% at HIGH risk
26% at MOD risk
West Coast Vancouver Island & Upper South Coast / 3 of 7 CUs show >30% decline in 3 generations / 2013 Production Plan = 18.4 million
1 of 7 CUs with moderate/high level of enhancement / Quinsam: 15% NBC sport, 4%SoG sport
Robertson: 13% terminal commercial net, 11% terminal sport / Spawning watersheds:
29% at HIGH risk
34% at MOD risk
Key uncertainties from Science Panel Report (examples) / Incomplete monitoring of status (temporally and spatially, both within and across CUs) / Limited understanding of extent of impact on wild stocks. / Uncertainty about sustainable exploitation rates under poor marine survival.
Dome CWT provides significantly less reliable info on distribution of harvest than other indicators, and no info after 2006. Dome CWT data provides some info on ocean distribution during tagging program, but in-river recoveries were insufficient for inferences about in-river fisheries / Few data on egg to fry to smolt survival.
Potential causative linkages between habitat stressors and productivity (and potential gains) unclear.
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May 2014CSPI: Alternative Strategic Directions Technical Appendices
Composition of CU Groups
CU Name / Predominant juvenile life history type / Predominant adult return run timingLower Fraser River
CK-03: Lower Fraser – fall / Ocean type / Fall
CK-04: Lower Fraser – spring / Stream type / Spring
CK-05: Lower Fraser – Upper Pitt / Stream type / Summer
CK-06: Lower Fraser – summer / Stream type / Summer
CK-07: Maria Slough / Ocean type / Summer
CK-9000: Chilliwack Hatchery – Harrison transplants / Ocean type / Fall
Middle & Upper Fraser River
CK-08: Fraser Canyon – Nahatlach / Stream type / Spring
CK-09: Middle Fraser – Portage / Stream type / Fall
CK-10: Middle Fraser – spring / Stream type / Spring
CK-11: Middle Fraser – summer / Stream type / Summer
CK-12: Upper Fraser – spring / Stream type / Spring
North/South/Lower Thompson River
CK-13: South Thompson - summer (age 0.3) / Ocean type / Summer
CK-14: South Thompson - summer (age 1.3) / Stream type / Summer
CK-15: Shuswap River – summer [enhanced] / Ocean type / Summer
CK-16: South Thompson – Bessette / Stream type / Summer
CK-17: Lower Thompson - spring (age 1.2) / Stream type / Spring
CK-18: North Thompson - spring (age 1.3) / Stream type / Spring
CK-19: North Thompson – summer (age 1.3) / Stream type / Summer
CK-82: South Thompson – Adams River Upper / Ocean type / Summer
Lower South Coast & Other
CK-01: Okanagan / Stream type / Summer
CK-02: Boundary Bay / Ocean type / Fall
CK-20: South Coast* - Georgia Strait
(*includes watersheds managed out of Lower Fraser DFO office) / Ocean type / Fall
CK-21: East Coast Vancouver Island – Goldstream / Ocean type / Fall
CK-22: East Coast Vancouver Island – Cowichan/Koksilah / Ocean type / Fall
CK-23: East Vancouver Island – Nanaimo spring timing / Stream type / Spring
CK-24: East Vancouver Island –summer timing / Ocean type / Summer
CK-25: East Vancouver Island – Nanaimo & Chemainus - fall timing / Ocean type / Fall
CK-27: East Vancouver Island – QualicumPuntledge fall timing / Ocean type / Fall
West Coast Vancouver Island & Upper South Coast
CK-28: South Coast – southern fjords / Ocean type / Fall
CK-29: Northeast Vancouver Island / Ocean type / Fall
CK-31: Southwest Vancouver Island / Ocean type / Fall
CK-32: Nootka & Kyuquot / Ocean type / Fall
CK-33: Northwest Vancouver Island / Ocean type / Fall
CK-34: Homathko / Stream type / Summer
CK-35: Klinaklini / Stream type / Summer
NOTE: Colour-coding represents status over past 3 generations. It does not reflect WSP status. Red = >30% decline. Green = >30% increase. Orange = -30% to +30% change.
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May 2014CSPI: Alternative Strategic Directions Technical Appendices
SBC Chinook – High-level Summary of Current Situation, by CU Group - ADDITIONAL DETAILS
Status
Hatcheries
2013 Production Plans / 2013 Production PlansRegion / CU Group / Source: DFO presentation, SBC Chinook Science Workshop / Region / CU Group / Source: DFO presentation, SBC Chinook Science Workshop
Lower Fraser River /
Total = 2.9 million / Lower South Coast & Other /
Total = 16.2 million
Middle & Upper Fraser / No active enhancement
Thompson River (North, South, Lower) /
Total = 1.3 million / West Coast Vancouver Island & Upper South Coast /
Total = 18.4 million
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May 2014CSPI: Alternative Strategic Directions Technical Appendices
Harvest
Harvest by CU group.
Source: Data table presented by K. English at Nov. 8 SPC meeting
Footnotes:1. NBC AABM Sport includes ISBM North S. and ISBM Central S.
2. WCVI AABM Sport includes ISBM WCVI Inside S.
3. Other troll includes Central and any other Canadian troll fisheries not listed.
4. Imputed CWT recoveries from Fraser Run Reconstructed catch, escapement CWT density, and relationship between recoveries based on CWT sampling and run reconstruction
5. CWT recoveries were estimated using commercial and test fishery samples expanded to total catch for First Nation, test, and commercial fisheries (1989-1999, 2001-2004 ,2010).
6. Estimated using direct and voluntary CWT samples from First Nation fishery and mark rates from Albion test fishery.
7. Other Net includes Juan de Fuca net, Johnstone Strait net, and WCVI net.
8. Terminal sport represents Fraser River and tributuaries downstream of Alexandria Bridge boundary.
9. Nicola Mouth sport includes recoveries in all sport fisheries in the lower Thompson River (Kamloops Lake to Fraser R. confluence).
10. CUs in bold (also with "") have stronger association with marine exploitation rate indicator stocks (i.e., others are weakly associated, "▪" ), which is further indicated by large square symbol.
11. Dome CWT provides significantly less reliable info on distribution of harvest than other indicators, and no info after 2006.
Cells with shading indicate exploitation rates greater than 5%.
Data for CWT indicator stocks are only shown for Cus with a strong association.
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May 2014CSPI: Alternative Strategic Directions Technical Appendices
Average % distribution of total mortalities by fishery for South Coast Chinook indicator stocks, 1999-2011
Source: Data table presented by K. English at Nov. 8 SPC meeting
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May 2014CSPI: Alternative Strategic Directions Technical Appendices
Habitat
Summary from Pressure-State Indicator Project (Porter et al. 2013).Further details on following page.
Further details behind the summary above:
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May 2014CSPI: Alternative Strategic Directions Technical Appendices
Technical Appendix B: Harvest map
Harvest map developed for SPC workshops in November 2013.
Source: Data table presented by K. English at Nov. 8 SPC meeting.
NOTE: The Strait of Georgia is incorrectly labelled as Georgia Straight.
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May 2014CSPI: Alternative Strategic Directions Technical Appendices
Technical Appendix C: Strategies Brainstorm
The final table of brainstormed strategies, as developed in November 2013. The material below is the actual product circulated to the SPC in preparation for the subsequent stage of developing broad alternatives for the TWG to evaluate. Attribution of individual suggestions is anonymous.
Strategies / Actions from Roundtable Discussion at November 18 SPC Meeting
Table Key:
:(lightest colouration) / Suggestions from participants, as summarized in workshop discussion
Bold listed bullets
(medium colouration) / Synthesis of major options suggested within each region(s)
Bottom two sections (darkest colouration) / Synthesis of highest-level strategies from all input across all regions.
Associated questions for SPC to consider
Consider different types of strategies suggested:
- concrete action suggested
- action suggested, but additional information required to specify action
- suggestion is to implement/maintain a policy or regulation
- suggestion is primarily focused on learning (research & monitoring)
POTENTIAL ACTIONS/STRATEGIES THAT SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AND EVALUATED
Region / CU Group / Hatcheries Strategies / Harvest Strategies / Habitat Strategies / Research & Monitoring Strategies
Middle & Upper Fraser / : need a new indicator hatchery in the Upper Fraser
:important to have indicator stock for Summer 5-2 for the Upper Fraser that will assist in generating CWT information. The alternative is a wild indicator stock w DNA information, to replace Dome indicator info. Hatcheries for assessment only. Production is not an option.
: see research & monitoring. Look at benefits of hatcheries for harvest vs. impacts on wild stocks.
: evaluate re-instatement of Dome, considering impact on wild stocks; consider small hatchery operations (Ken Malloway’s comment from Nov. 8)
: summer 5.2 would be a good indicator stock; need good fish recovery program in both fisheries and on spawning ground; we many not have enough tags with current low marine survival rates (e.g., Nicola) – need higher rates of tagging (can also happen with low harvest rates)
: Dome is a spring 5.2 stock; might want more than 1 indicator stock; get as close as possible to a wild indicator stock w a small, “natural” facility / : Decrease harvest until more information is acquired to evaluate the Upper Fraser CU’s. Develop biological based escapement goals. Greater monitoring across all fisheries.
: look at higher impact fisheries for declining CUs; any opportunities for selective terminal fisheries by FNs or recreational fisheries to reduce mixed stock impacts
: assess best estimates of productivity, and implications for harvest rates; review CWT sampling rates in fisheries (standard is 20%, but we’re not meeting this std everywhere, how can you fill gaps? – a general recommendation); use in season or other abundance based mgmt. approaches (have usually worked w annual information, but could work w Albion test fisheries for summer 4.1 Thompson fish in-season mgmt.); stringent restrictions on summer 5.2 may not be sufficient but hard to tell given absence of Dome stock
: maintain current harvest restrictions and potentially further reduce marine harvest rates for middle /upper Fraser and Thompson stocks
: (for Thompson too) for fisheries that dominate the total marine mortalities of a stock of concern (e.g., San Juan rec for Dome and Nicola): 1. scientifically defensible, fishery independent estimates of total chinook encounters 2. verifiable, fishery independent estimates of catch 3. scientifically defensible, verifiable, fishery independent estimates of discards 4. verifiable, fishery independent estimates of compliance 5. DNA analysis of both caught and discarded chinook to evaluate both stock composition and whether "slot" limits are achieving the desired results. / : protect / restore habitat especially from mining, oil and gas, RoR, other industries, protect groundwater sources; protect marine habitat important for these stocks[1];Determine carrying capacity of the chinook habitat. Water Quality and Quantity sampling program involving FN fisheries authorities. Juvenile habitat assessment
: are there any restoration opportunities for declining CUs?
: further analyze temperature over peak as a potential limitation; consider Kenney Dam cold water release as mitigation option; collate local ATK on potential actions to increase productivity;
: need to line up habitat restoration folks to assess what highest priority actions would be (funding and priorities don’t always line up) / : collaborate work by FNs, academia (UNBC) and DFO on groundwater issues, watershed management for habitat protection; research / monitoring that provide more info on status and trends, action effectiveness. Determine interactions amongst wild and hatchery produced chinook stocks. Continued monitoring of escapement and exploration of alternative methods that are equally as effective in terminal areas. Juvenile habitat assessments. Indicator System.
: Need info on outcomes from various past hatchery outputs and harvest rates on next generation.
: need more information on these stocks given lack of info and Dome problems; use DNA info retrospectively; for CWT – what would be best stock to use?
: replace Dome – get spring 5.2 stock; separate FW and marine survival effects (SARs).
: biologically based escapement goals for Fraser Chinook (only available for Harrison Chinook);
Thompson River (North, South, Lower) / : Use of hatchery supplementation to assist w recovery
: Maintain Thompson, Nicola and Shuswap indicator stocks (critical for assessments)
: production hatcheries in Interior for benefit of in-river harvest (Ken Malloway’s comments on Nov 8)
: Developing a representative Indicator program (Summer 5sub 2) is a priority, seconded by Spring 5sub2), hatchery OR wild; Ensure support is provided for CWT sampling ideally each CU represented)
- hatchery for assessment purposes only, otherwise reduce hatchery output in light of the enhancement’s influence on AABM harvest rates
: address potential interactions in the high seas among wild and enhanced salmon from different countries, including developing plans for enhancement regulation and activities. / : Ensure that 4.1’s are able to persist under reduced marine survival; adjust harvest rates accordingly
: concerns with estimates for Nicola harvest rates being inconsistent between CWT and run reconstruction (probably because of differences in strength of CWT data across years)
: Reduce ERs in the marine area in fisheries with significant influence until more information is acquired; for benefit of upper fraser and Thompson CK; reduce mixed stock fisheries in ocean
: Develop escapement goals (biologically based) for Interior SBC Chinook; similar to IFR Coho explore having a geographic-area based escapement strategy to ensure genetic diversity and seeding of the populaions within all the CUs.
: Use MarkSelectiveFisheries only if enough funding to implement correctly and have knowledge of all the impacts
: Use a precautionary buffer for fisheries with high CWT data uncertainty.
: ensure that all Fraser River chinook salmon fisheries are monitored at an enhanced level (achieving catch estimates within 5 percent of actual harvest, with greater than 20 percent independent validation). To meet this objective, DFO should do an independent catch validation
: Forecasting of Chinook in marine areas
: Implementation of Aboriginal harvest priority; Rebuilding plans must incorporate FSC requirements
: Manage to the CU level; where aggregates are proposed determine if the fishing pressure would be the same across all CUs in that aggregate to ensure that all component CUs are adequately protected – Jeffrey Young (David Suzuki Found.)
: Increase in-river demonstration commercial fisheries that can target stronger stocks versus the weaker ones; to reduce mixed stock fishery impacts / : Improve fish passage at BC Hydro facilities; look at stream flow requirements for healthy fish production, not just the minimum.
:ensure that environmental quality monitoring and environmental effects monitoring related to pulp and paper, metal mining, and municipal wastewater discharges include consideration of Fraser River Chinook salmon (DFO & EnvCan, BC, regional and municipal governments)
: regulation of groundwater extraction in a manner that addresses the needs of Fraser River Chinook (water act modernization) and increased reporting and monitoring of water use
: Canada should finalize a regulatory strategy to limit the impact of wastewater biosolids on fisheries resources.
: Measure the amount of productive capacity of CK habitat (to see if achieving a net gain)
: Account for cumulative impacts on SBC CK habitat arising from projects versus considering only on a project by project basis
: DFO continue implementing the 1986 habitat policy (the guiding principle which is achieving no net loss of productive fish habitat)
: Increase SBC Chinook access: ensure adequate flows for all life stages; restore fish passage past Wilsey Dam in the upper Shuswap watershed
: Monitor stream temperatures and flows, use inseason similar to SK to develop buffers for management e.g., management adjustments. Determine if temperature over peak is a potential limitation
: Reduce known anthropogenic stressors we can control (habitat loss, contamination, salmon farms) / : Get information from Shuswap Nation fisheries (Secwepemc Fisheries Commission)
:Closer examination of enhancement influences (mixed hatchery and natural fish can lead to hatchery fish replacing natural fish); develop tools to analyze interactions between wild and enhanced chinook (e.g., chinook enhancement and consequences of bycatch of other stocks of concern)
: Address potential interactions in the high seas among wild and enhanced chininook including developing plans for enhancement regulation and activities.
: Continue escapement enumerations at not less than the level of precision recommended by DFO stock assessment staff for 2010. How does current assessment line up with the CU’s??