MTH/217 Version 2 / 1
Political Polls Scenario
Gallup (a global research organization) conducted a poll just before the 1948 presidential election. Using the poll, Gallup predicted that Thomas E. Dewey would win with the election and Harry Truman would get only 44.5% of the votes. Truman actually got 49% of the votes and won the election, but the poll convinced the Chicago Daily Tribune that Truman would lose. The picture below is now solidified in American history as an example of error in polling.
The question remains... can you trust political polls? Your task is to analyze this historic Gallup poll and analyze a modern Gallup poll. You need to determine how the old and new polls were conducted, who was in the sample, who was in the sample population, and what type of statistics were given as a result. Polls are taken and reported every day in the media, but unless we can critically analyze these we cannot make informed decisions based on the results.
Source: Weiss, Neil A.,Elementary Statistics, 9/e, 9th Edition. Pearson, 01/2015.
There are three main roles in this scenario. Select a role and complete the task listed under the role.
Role#1: Historical Analyst
You are in charge of researching and analyzing the historical poll that wrongly predicted the 1948 election.
- Who was in the sample?
- Who was in the population? Did the population match the voting population?
- How was the survey conducted? Was there bias in the sampling?
- Why do you think there was such a large error in the poll?
- The table below represents the results of the actual election. Is this descriptive or inferential? What inferential statement was made as a result of the Gallup poll?
Source: Weiss, Neil A., Elementary Statistics, 9/e, 9th Edition. Pearson, 01/2015.
Role#2: Modern Analyst
You are in charge of researching and analyzing the final poll that Gallup did just before the last presidential election.
●Who was in the sample?
●Who was in the population? Did the population match the voting population?
●How was the survey conducted? Was there bias in the sampling?
●Was the poll accurate? What was the margin of error?
●Give a descriptive or inferential statement as a result of the poll.
Role#3: Poll Designer
You are in charge of taking a political poll to help predict the outcome of the next presidential election. You want to be as accurate as possible.
- Who would you sample? How many people do you think you should survey (assuming that you cannot poll every person)?
- Who is your population?
- How would you conduct your poll? How can you minimize the bias and ensure random sampling?
- What descriptive statement could you make as a result of your poll? What inferential statement could you make?
Clickthe Assignment Files tab to submit your assignment.