MASSAPEQUA PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Meteorology
SUMMER 2011
COMMITTEE MEMBERS
Nicholas J. Donohue
BOARD OF EDUCATION
Maryanne Fisher – President
Jane Ryan – Vice President
Thomas Caltabiano – Secretary
Timothy Taylor – Trustee
Gary Bennett – Trustee
ADMINISTRATION
Charles V. Sulc, Superintendent
Alan C. Adcock, Deputy Superintendent
Lucille F. Iconis, Assistant Superintendent for Curriculum and Instruction K-12
Thomas Fasano, Ed.D., Assistant to the Superintendent for Curriculum & Instruction
Robert Schilling, Executive Director Assessment, Student Data and Technology Services
Diana Haanraadts, Interim Assistant to the Superintendent for Curriculum & Instruction
Table of Contents
Course Description/Rationale……………………………………………………… Page 3
Grading Scheme……………………………………………………………………. Page 4
Unit Sequence…………………………………………………………………...…. Page 5
Unit Outlines:
Unit 1 – Basics of the Atmosphere….……………………………………... Page 6
Unit 2 – Hurricanes…………..…………………………………………….. Page 6
Unit 3 – Temperature Forecasting.………………………………………… Page 7
Unit 4 – Moisture and Cloud Formation...…………………………………. Page 7
Unit 5 – Precipitation and Lake Effect Snow……………………………… Page 8
Unit 6 – Interpreting MOS Forecasts…..…….…………………………….. Page 8
Unit 7 – Air Pressure and Wind …………….…………………………….. Page 9
Unit 8 – Small, Local, and Global Wind Systems ……………………...…. Page 9
Unit 9 – Synoptic Weather Features .……………………………………… Page 10
Unit 10 – Severe Weather………………………………………………….. Page 10
Unit 11 – Making the Complete Forecast …………………………………. Page 11
Course Projects…………………………………………………………………….. Pages 12-13
Learning Standards, Key Ideas, & Performance Indicators………………………... Pages 14-16
Technology Component……………………….…………………………………… Page 17
Key Words for Searches………………………………………………………..….. Page 18
Course Description/Rationale - AMES Earth Science
This course will allow students to further develop their understanding of the atmospheric sciences learned in Accelerated Earth Science and apply their skills to forecast the weather. Students will learn to read and interpret weather maps, surface data, upper air data and computer forecasting models. In class weather forecasting competitions will be conducted during the second semester to allow students to perfect their forecasting skills using real-time data.
Prerequisite: Accelerated Earth Science, Co-requisite: Accelerated Biology
Grading Scheme
Assessment /Percentage
Tests/Projects / 40%Quizzes / 40%
Homework/Class Work/Participation / 20%
Tests/Projects:
Tests and/or projects will be given at the end of each unit to assess student understanding of the unit material. Some units will lend themselves better to a test, while other units will be better assessed through project-based assessment.
Quizzes:
Short quizzes will be given to ensure that students understand key concepts throughout the year. These quizzes will serve as good study guides and reference for the students throughout the year.
Homework/Class Work/Participation:
Short homework assignments will be used to reinforce major topics and key forecasting techniques. Many homework assignments will require the use of the Internet to attain weather data. During the second half of the year, the majority of the homework assignments will be to produce a simple 48-hour forecast for our selected cities.
Class work may be collected and graded to ensure that students are being diligent in their work. All students will be expected to be active participants in classroom discussions.
Unit Sequence
Semester 1
Unit 1
/Basics of the Atmosphere
Unit 2 /Hurricanes
Unit 3 / Temperature ForecastingUnit 4 / Moisture and Cloud Formation
Unit 5 / Precipitation and Lake Effect Snow
Unit 6 /
Interpreting MOS Forecasts
Semester 2
Unit 7 / Air Pressure and WindUnit 8 / Small, Local, and Global Wind Systems
Unit 9 /
Synoptic Weather Features
Unit 10 / Severe WeatherUnit 11 /
Making the Complete Forecast
FINAL EXAMUnit 1 – Basics of the Atmosphere
Essential Questions:
þ What is our atmosphere?
þ What measurements are necessary to predict the future state of the atmosphere?
þ How do we record, store, and interpret the vast amount of weather data collected worldwide each day?
Class / Lesson Topic1 / Introduction/Guidelines/Atmosphere Pre-Test
2 / Atmospheric Structure and Composition
3 / Review of critical weather variables and instrumentation
4 / Understanding Universal Time/Time Zones
5 / Station Models
6 / METAR Code
7 / UNIT 1 QUIZ
Unit 2 – Hurricanes
This unit was placed early in the year to take advantage
of tropical storms likely to exist in September/October.
Essential Question:
Û How do forecasters monitor and track hurricanes to safeguard human life and property?
Class / Lesson Topic8 / Structure and Formation/Assign Student Case Study Project
9 / Storm Tracks/Names/Monitoring/Saffir-Simpson Scale
10 / Hazards Associated with Tropical Systems/Typhoons/Cyclones
11 / Student Project - Hurricane Case-Study Presentations
12 / Student Project - Hurricane Case-Study Presentations (Continued)
Unit 3 – Temperature Forecasting
Essential Questions:
á How do we forecast temperatures for given place and time?
á What impacts to human life must a forecaster consider with regard to temperature?
Class / Lesson Topic13 / Conduction/Convection/Radiation
14 / Greenhouse Effect/Earth’s Energy Balance
15 / Seasonal Temperature Change
16 / Daily Temperature Change
17 / Atmospheric Temperature Controls
18 / Affect of Temperature on Human Comfort/Watches & Warnings
19 / UNIT 3 TEST
Unit 4 – Moisture and Cloud Formation
Essential Questions:
Ù How does moisture enter and leave the atmosphere?
Ù What impacts to human life must a forecaster consider with regard to moisture?
Ù How and why do clouds form?
Day / Lesson Topic20 / Hydrologic Cycle and Phase Changes
21 / Humidity/Dew-point
22 / Affect of Moisture on Human Comfort/Watches & Warnings
23 / Dew/Frost/Condensation Nuclei/Haze
24 / Fog (Radiation, Advection, upslope, and mixing)
25 / Classifying Clouds/Satellite Obs/Assign Cloud-Photography Project
26 / Atmospheric Stability
27 / Cloud Development/Effect of Topography
28 / Unit 4 TEST
Unit 5 – Precipitation and Lake Effect Snow
Placing this unit here allows us to take advantage of the lake effect snows
that are best studied November through early January.
Essential Questions:
ù How do cloud droplets grow larger?
ù How do you forecast what type of precipitation will fall?
ù How do you forecast lake effect snow systems?
Class / Lesson Topic29 / Precipitation Process/Collision and Coalescence/Bergeron Process
30 / Cloud Seeding/Precipitation Types (Rain/Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain)
31 / Precipitation Types (Snow Grains/Snow Pellets/Hail)
32 / Measuring Precipitation/RADAR
33 / Lake Effect Snow – Concept
34 / Lake Effect Snow – Forecasting Techniques
35 / Using Surface and Upper Air Data to Predict Precipitation Types
36 / Student Project – Lake Effect Snow Case Study Presentations
Unit 6 – Interpreting MOS Forecasts
Placing this unit here allows us to provide a foundation to begin the forecasting competition from during the second semester.
Essential Questions:
: How do meteorologists use computer model guidance to produce a forecast?
: How do we become better forecasters by critiquing our forecasts for successes and failures?
Day / Lesson Topic37 / Introduction to the MOS forecast (GFS/GFS Extended/NAM)
38 / Interpreting GFS Extended and GFS MOS Forecasts
39 / Interpreting NAM MOS forecasts
40 / Use MOS Data to create a 48 hour forecast for 3 cities
41 / Verify our 48 forecasts to determine our forecast skill
42 / Unit 6 Test
Unit 7 – Air Pressure and Wind
Essential Questions:
P Why does wind blow?
P How can we predict wind speed and direction?
Class / Lesson Topic43 / Introduce and explain the second semester forecast competition
44 / Horizontal Pressure Variations
45 / Sea Level Pressure/Altitude Corrections
46 / Upper Air Charts/Ridges & Troughs
47 / Forces influencing Winds
48 / Geostrophic Winds/ Cyclonic vs. Anticyclonic Flow
49 / Winds on Upper Level Charts vs. Surface Winds
50 / Vertical Air Motions/Divergence and Convergence
51 / UNIT 7 QUIZ
Unit 8 – Small, Local, and Global Wind Systems
Essential Questions:
J What types of localized wind conditions must a forecaster consider?
J How do global wind patterns affect the climate of locations around the world?
Day / Lesson Topic52 / Scales of Motion/Turbulence/Eddies
53 / Thermal Circulations/Land & Sea Breeze/Local Winds & Water
54 / Monsoons/Mountain & Valley Breezes/Katabatic and Chinook Winds
55 / General Atmospheric Circulation
56 / Jet Streams
57 / Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction
58 / El Nino and the Southern Oscillation
59 / Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic Oscillations
60 / Unit 8 Test
Unit 9 – Synoptic Weather Features
Essential Questions:
Ü How are weather maps created and interpreted to make a forecast?
Ü How can we tell if a storm is going to strengthen or weaken?
Class / Lesson Topic61 / Air Masses
62 / Fronts
63 / Development of a Mid-Latitude Cyclone
64 / Vertical Structure of Deep Dynamic Lows/Upper Level Waves
65 / Advection/Ingredients for Developing a Mid-Latitude Cyclone
66 / Vorticity/Divergence & Convergence
67 / Winds on Upper Level Charts vs. Surface Winds
68 / Vertical Air Motions/Divergence and Convergence
69 / UNIT 9 TEST
Unit 10 – Severe Weather
Essential Question:
Ý How do forecasters predict severe weather to safeguard human life and property?
Day / Lesson Topic70 / Thunderstorms
71 / Supercell Thunderstorms/Dryline
72 / Flash Floods/Thunder and Lightning
73 / Tornadoes
74 / Using Doppler Radar to Locate Severe Weather
75 / Skew-T Log P Diagrams
76 / Severe Weather Indices
77 / Watches, Warnings and Advisories
78 / Unit 10 Test
Unit 11 – Making the Complete Forecast
Essential Questions:
¹ How do forecasters handle the huge amount of data needed to produce a detailed, accurate forecast?
¹ How do the National Weather Service, NASA, the military, Weather Channel, or any other forecasting agency prepare detailed forecasts for so many locations?
Day / Lesson Topic79 / Developing a Forecast Routine/Team Approach to Forecasting
80 / Class Project – MHS Ames Campus Weather Center
81 / Class Project – MHS Ames Campus Weather Center
82 / Class Project – MHS Ames Campus Weather Center
83 / Final Exam
Course Projects
Hurricane Case Study:
This will be the first project of the year and as a result will need to be fairly basic since many key concepts will not have been covered yet. Each student will be randomly assigned a hurricane or tropical storm that had a significant impact on North America (including Hawaii). Students will then need to research their hurricanes and prepare a 4-5 minute presentation on the storm. Students will be required analyze and discuss the storms track, intensity, date of formation & dissipation, minimum pressure, maximum wind speeds, and include a cost and damage assessment. PowerPoint, Movie Maker, Smart Notebook, or another presentation tool will be required to deliver this media-quality presentation.
Cloud Photography Project:
This project will require students to keep a 7-day eye on the sky. Students will use either a cell phone or digital camera to capture pictures twice a day (before and after school). Students will then need to identify the type(s) of clouds present in the picture. After taking the evening picture, students will need to note the day’s high and low temperature, dew point range, wind direction, type and amount of precipitation, and then look at a weather map to note what type of pressure system or front was influencing the area. Presentations will be submitted electronically using either Word or PowerPoint, along with a hard copy.
Lake Effect Snow Case Study:
Lake effect snows are one of the coolest winter weather phenomenons. They are easily overlooked when forecasts are presented on a national scale, but they have incredibly significant local impacts. For this project, students will be randomly assigned to study a particular lake effect snowstorm. Based on archived radar images, satellite images, snowfall data, and topographic maps, students will need to determine the wind direction that was responsible for creating the storm, possible enhancement by local topography, and the overall impact to the region. Students will then prepare a 2-3 minute presentation to discuss their particular lake effect snowstorm. PowerPoint, Movie Maker, Smart Notebook, or another presentation tool will be required to deliver this presentation.
Forecasting Competition Project:
The second semester of this course will be built around the forecasting competition. In January the project will be introduced by creating a calendar to guide the project. Student names will be drawn at random to determine the order of presentations and cities we will be forecasting for. Each student will get to pick a city that they will be responsible for. In order to qualify, each city will need to have an official weather station nearby with data that can be easily accessed through the National Weather Service to ensure that we have quality-controlled data. The city will also need to have MOS data available. Students will not be allowed to choose cities in the New York/Tri-State area since we will use those as examples in class.
The forecast and presentation calendar will be set up in two-week blocks. For example, two students and cities will be assigned on the calendar for the first two weeks of class in February, followed by 2 more students and cities for the following 2 weeks of class, and so on.
Once we have organized the cities we will be forecasting for, each student will need to prepare a detailed presentation outlining the climate and weather features critical to their city. The presentation will need to include the general geography, topography, weather norms, weather records, and noteworthy local weather conditions that will be needed to forecast for the city. The presentation can be created using programs such as PowerPoint, Movie Maker, or Smart Notebook. Every student in the class must be provided a copy of the presentation either in the form of a Word document, PowerPoint notes, or Publisher brochure. This presentation will count as an individual project grade for that student.
The week following the student presentations we will begin forecasting for the 2 cities selected. Each class day students will be required to turn in a basic 48-hour forecast for each city that will count as a homework assignment. The forecast will consist of predicting the maximum and minimum temperature for each day, along with forecasting the amount of precipitation expected. These forecasts will be entered into an excel spreadsheet where they will be verified against the correct data recorded for the forecast period. Percent error calculations will be used to determine each forecaster’s skill. As a basis for comparison, the local national weather service forecast, computer model forecasts, and the teacher’s forecast will all be entered into the competition. At the beginning of each class we will look at the results to see how we did with our previous 48-hour forecasts. As we continue through the second semester and begin covering more advanced forecasting techniques we hopefully will see that our forecast skill increases.