Recent population trends in the Australian Capital Region

Prepared by the ACT Demographer, Economic, Regional and Planning Policy, Chief Minister and Cabinet Directorate April 2012

Email: Phone: 02 6205 0202

Definition: ‘The Australian Capital Region’ (or ACR) is the region consisting of the ACT and nearby local government areas including Bega Valley, Bombala, Boorowa, Cootamundra, Cooma-Monaro, Eurobodalla, Goulburn-Mulwaree, Gundagai, Harden, Palerang , Queanbeyan, Snowy River, Tumbarumba, Tumut, Upper Lachlan, Yass Valley and Young.

Data source: The following analysis is based on preliminary figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in March 2012 (Source: ABS, 2012 Regional Population Growth, Australia 2010-11, Cat. No. 3218.0). These preliminary estimates will be updated with figures re-based to the 2011 Census on 31st July 2012 and subsequently be finalised in July 2013.

Recent trends - region

1.  At June 2011, the Australian Capital Region (ACR) supported a population of 613,600 people.

2.  The ACR represented 8.0 per cent of the combined NSW and ACT population at June 2011.

3.  Population growth over the year to June 2011 was 8,656 people or 1.4 per cent.

4.  Over the decade to 2011, the region grew by 74,530 people (or an average of 7,453 people each year). Average annual growth over the decade was 1.3 per cent. This is similar to the comparable figure for the ACT of 1.4 per cent.

5.  Population growth was stronger in the second half of the decade with growth averaging 9,134 people each year or 1.6 per cent in the period 2007-2011. In contrast, growth in the first half of the decade averaged 5,770 people each year or 1.0 per cent. Growth in the last year to 2011 has eased slightly from the five year average.

Recent trends – component areas

1.  The ACT’s population reached 365,600 people at June 2011. It accounted for nearly 60 per cent (59.6 per cent) of the Australian Capital Region’s population at June 2011.

2.  Recent population growth in the ACT has been larger than in earlier years. In the twelve months to June 2011, the population grew by 6,770 people or 1.9 per cent. This contributed to average growth for the five years to 2011 being 6,300 people each year or 1.8 per cent. Growth in this period was more than twice as large as in the five years to 2006 (6,300 people compared with 2,960 people respectively).

3.  In contrast, growth in the ACR excluding ACT remained steady. Between 2001 and 2006, population growth in the balance of ACR averaged 2,812 people each year increasing marginally to 2,834 people each year between 2006 and 2011. The pattern of growth was varied with some areas experiencing more growth and others slowing.

4.  Population growth in Queanbeyan (C) in the five years to June 2011 was down only slightly on the five year average to 2006 (719 people compared to 865 people respectively). However in Eurobodalla, the local government area with the next largest population, growth slowed substantially from an average of 528 people per year between 2001 and 2006, to only 252 people per year between 2006 and 2011.

5.  Most growth continued to occur in the urban areas of the region. For example, urban Palerang (Palerang Pt A) accounted for the majority of growth in the local government area.

6.  Over the year to June 2011, growth slowed in most areas outside the ACT. In the balance of the ACR, population growth was 1,879 people compared with an increase of 3,054 people in the previous year.

Recent trends – contribution of component areas

1.  The ACT comprises the largest share of the ACR population (60% in 2011). This share remained steady over the past decade.

2.  The ACT also accounted for the majority of growth (62.1 per cent) in the ACR over the past decade. Whilst generally increasing, ACT’s share of growth fluctuated from a low of 48.4 per cent in the year ending June 2004, to a high of 78.3 per cent in 2011.

3.  In contrast, Queanbeyan (C)’s contribution to growth declined over the decade, ranging from 19.6 per cent of the ACR’s growth in the year ending June 2003, to only 3.8 per cent in 2011.

4.  More than three-quarters of ACR’s total growth over the past decade was in the the three most populous areas; ACT (46,300 people or 62.1 per cent), Queanbeyan (7,900 people or 10.6 per cent) and Eurobodalla (3,900 people or 5.2 per cent).

5.  Outside ACT, in most cases the contribution to growth reflects the size of the population. In other words, areas with larger populations grew more. Most areas with relatively small populations, also accounted for small shares of ACR growth. The two exceptions to this were Yass Valley (which contributed 3.6 per cent of ACR’s growth in 2010-11 while having 3.2 per cent of the population) and Palerang (5.3 per cent of the growth and 2.4 per cent of the population).

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Recent population trends in the Australian Capital Region

Table 1: Population estimates, Australian Capital Region1

ERP at 30 June / Change (average annual)
Area / 2001 / 2006 / 2010r / 2011p / 2001-2006 / 2006-2011p / 2010r-2011p / 2001-2011p
no. / no. / no. / no. / % / no. / % / no. / % / no. / %
ACT / 319,317 / 334,119 / 358,844 / 365,621 / 2,960 / 0.9 / 6,300 / 1.8 / 6,777 / 1.9 / 4,630 / 1.4
Queanbeyan (C) / 33,765 / 38,092 / 41,358 / 41,686 / 865 / 2.4 / 719 / 1.8 / 328 / 0.8 / 792 / 2.1
Eurobodalla (A) / 33,946 / 36,585 / 37,648 / 37,846 / 528 / 1.5 / 252 / 0.7 / 198 / 0.5 / 390 / 1.1
Bega Valley (A) / 30,703 / 32,477 / 33,866 / 34,035 / 355 / 1.1 / 312 / 0.9 / 169 / 0.5 / 333 / 1.0
Goulburn Mulwaree (A) / 26,623 / 27,213 / 28,652 / 28,924 / 118 / 0.4 / 342 / 1.2 / 272 / 0.9 / 230 / 0.8
Yass Valley (A) / 12,103 / 13,762 / 15,164 / 15,450 / 332 / 2.6 / 338 / 2.3 / 286 / 1.9 / 335 / 2.5
Palerang (A) / 10,896 / 12,949 / 14,626 / 14,834 / 411 / 3.5 / 377 / 2.8 / 208 / 1.4 / 394 / 3.1
Young (A) / 11,850 / 12,432 / 13,055 / 13,135 / 116 / 1.0 / 141 / 1.1 / 80 / 0.6 / 129 / 1.0
Tumut Shire (A) / 11,470 / 11,273 / 11,460 / 11,501 / -39 / -0.3 / 46 / 0.4 / 41 / 0.4 / 3 / 0.0
Cooma-Monaro (A) / 9,752 / 10,174 / 10,435 / 10,524 / 84 / 0.9 / 70 / 0.7 / 89 / 0.9 / 77 / 0.8
Snowy River (A) / 7,207 / 7,583 / 8,174 / 8,255 / 75 / 1.0 / 134 / 1.7 / 81 / 1.0 / 105 / 1.4
Cootamundra (A) / 7,695 / 7,627 / 7,716 / 7,782 / -14 / -0.2 / 31 / 0.4 / 66 / 0.9 / 9 / 0.1
Upper Lachlan Shire (A) / 7,271 / 7,349 / 7,546 / 7,592 / 16 / 0.2 / 49 / 0.7 / 46 / 0.6 / 32 / 0.4
Gundagai (A) / 3,792 / 3,844 / 3,895 / 3,878 / 10 / 0.3 / 7 / 0.2 / -17 / -0.4 / 9 / 0.2
Tumbarumba (A) / 3,735 / 3,692 / 3,758 / 3,766 / -9 / -0.2 / 15 / 0.4 / 8 / 0.2 / 3 / 0.1
Harden (A) / 3,860 / 3,739 / 3,663 / 3,679 / -24 / -0.6 / -12 / -0.3 / 16 / 0.4 / -18 / -0.5
Bombala (A) / 2,631 / 2,625 / 2,612 / 2,612 / -1 / 0.0 / -3 / -0.1 / 0 / 0.0 / -2 / -0.1
Boorowa (A) / 2,455 / 2,396 / 2,474 / 2,482 / -12 / -0.5 / 17 / 0.7 / 8 / 0.3 / 3 / 0.1
Australian Capital Region / 539,071 / 567,931 / 604,946 / 613,602 / 5,772 / 1.0 / 9,134 / 1.6 / 8,656 / 1.4 / 7,453 / 1.3
Notes:
ERP - estimated resident population / p - preliminary / r - revised
(A) - area / (C) - city
1. "Australian Capital Region" represents ACT and the Local Government Areas in the South Eastern Statistical Division plus Cootamundra, Gundagai, Tumbarumba and Tumut
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Cat No 3218.0, March 2012 (ASGC 2011)

Prepared by the ACT Demographer, Economic, Regional and Planning Policy, Chief Minister and Cabinet Directorate April 2012

Email: Phone: 02 6205 0202

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