Allocation of Closing the GapsParticipation Goalsfor 2015 to

Institutions and Regions by Ethnicity

October 2008

1. Introduction

Closing the Gaps by 2015(CTG) set a goal of 1,650,000 students enrolled in higher education in Texas by 2015 at the undergraduate and graduate levels, as well as goalsfor each ethnic/racial group. These goalswere set to achieve 5.7 percent participation for each group’s projected population, as computed from the Texas State Data Center’s (TSDC)“2000-2002” migration scenario population projections.

In order to guide fulfillment of the CTG goals, the Coordinating Board (CB) needs to plan for resources for the 1.65 million students. The CB needs to know where these students will come from and where they will enroll. This report describes methodologyto estimatethe student population in 2015 and allocate the population to higher education institutions and regions, assuming that the 2015 CTG goals will be met. It discusses results and compares the indications for institutionswith the targets set by the institutions themselves. The report focuses on the major segment of higher education enrollment: Texas residents who will enroll in public higher education institutions.

The computationswere done in two steps:

  1. The student population in 2015 was estimated by region of residence, type of institution in which they will be enrolled(two-year, four-year, or health-related), and ethnicity, subject to the constraintsthat the student population sums to the 2015 CTG goals and to regional population projections
  1. The students were then allocated to Texas public institutions and higher education regions, by ethnicity.

3.Estimation of Student Population

2.1 Methodology

Someallocations for the computations were calculated using the iterative proportional fitting method (IPF), also known as the Deming-Stephan algorithm. IPF is used by the Census Bureau and other researchers to adjust estimatesfor subgroups when an overall total or goal of the entire group is known.

Table 1 shows the 2015 CTG participation goalsthat were last revised by the CB in 2005, by ethnicity. The bottom row shows the focus of the allocations: Texas residents attending public institutions in 2015. These figures were derived by subtracting 2015 estimated enrollment in independent and career institutionsand fall 2007nonresident (out-of-state and international) enrollment from the statewide goals. Nonresident enrollment was assumed to be the same in 2015 as in 2007.

Table 1: 2015 CTG Participation Goals by Ethnicity

Type of Enrollment / White / African-American / Hispanic / Other / Total
2015 Statewide goal / 671,300 / 172,700 / 676,100 / 129,900 / 1,650,000
2015 Independent enrollment / 86,813 / 20,164 / 33,340 / 18,685 / 159,002
Difference: 2015 public goal / 584,487 / 152,536 / 642,760 / 111,215 / 1,490,998
2007Nonresident enrollment / 21,088 / 6,124 / 6,538 / 45,222 / 78,972
Difference: 2015 resident public goal / 563,399 / 146,412 / 636,222 / 65,993 / 1,412,026

Table 2 contains fall 2007 resident enrollment figures by region of residence, type of institution, and ethnicity. To estimate the resident student population in 2015 that will meet the CTG goals, the sums of figures in Table 2 were controlledto new column and row totals that reflected 2015 goals and population projections. The distribution of students by region of residence, type of institution, and ethnicity in 2015 was assumed to be similar to what it was in 2007. The new controlling column and row totals were derived as follows:

New controlling column totals

The new controlling column totals were the 2015 CTG goals, by type of institution and ethnicity. Table 1 shows the goals by ethnicity. To further break out the goals by type of institution, additional CTG goals were applied: that 70 percent of the enrollment growth from 2007 to 2015 for each ethnic group will be at public two-year institutions, 27.5 percent at public four-year institutions, 1 percent at public health-related institutions, and the remainder (1.5 percent) at independent and career institutions. The percent enrollment growth for each type of public institution was scaled to sum to 100 percent; without scaling, the percents summed to 98.5 percent. For example, the scaled growth of public two-year institutions to meet CTG goals was 71.07 percent ((0.70 / 0.985) * 100) of the growth at all public institutions.

An example of the computation to derive a new column total is as follows. Resident enrollment of Whites totaled 516,103 in fall 2007. (See Table 2.) The 2015 CTG goal is 563,399, a growth of 47,296 students statewide. Then growth at two-year institutions should be 33,611 students (47,296 * 0.70 / 0.985), so the 2015 enrollment goal for Whites at two-year institutions should be 299,495 students (265,884 + 33,611). Similarly, the enrollment goal for Hispanics at four-year public institutions should be 115,386 + ((636,222–309,500) * (0.275 / 0.985)) = 206,603 students.

New controlling row totals

The new controlling row totals were 2015 projected numbers of students, by region of residence, that were then controlled to sum to the 2015 statewide CTG enrollment goal. The controlling procedure is described below. The regional distribution of the 18 to 35 year-old Texas population, the core group of higher education enrollees,was used as an estimate for thedistribution of the resident student population.

Table 3 shows TSDC projections of 18 to 35-year olds for 2015, by region. The TSDC used the “2000-2004” migration scenario, yielding more recent projections than the “2000-2002” migration scenario projections used to revise the CTG participation goals in 2005. (See Appendix Table 1 for TSDC projections for 2007 and 2015, by ethnicity.) The sum of the regional values was controlled to the statewide CTG goal of 1,412,026 students by multiplying each value by the factor 1,412,026 / 7,435,958, aprocedure known as “raking.” The controlled values (the new controlling row totals for adjusting Table 2) are shown in the last column of Table 3.

1

Table 2: Fall 2007 Resident Enrollment by Region of Residence, Type of Public Institution, and Ethnicity

Region of Residence / Four-Year Institutions / Two-Year Institutions / Health-Related Institutions / Total
White / African-American / Hispanic / Other / White / African-American / Hispanic / Other / White / African-American / Hispanic / Other / White / African-American / Hispanic / Other / All
1 – High Plains / 11,570 / 562 / 2,554 / 734 / 13,030 / 852 / 5,281 / 730 / 601 / 19 / 91 / 86 / 25,201 / 1,433 / 7,926 / 1,550 / 36,110
2 – Northwest / 7,326 / 360 / 913 / 374 / 7,318 / 585 / 2,036 / 291 / 208 / 5 / 17 / 16 / 14,852 / 950 / 2,966 / 681 / 19,449
3 – Metroplex / 70,602 / 15,667 / 11,613 / 11,396 / 81,029 / 23,926 / 27,785 / 12,353 / 1,955 / 233 / 258 / 866 / 153,586 / 39,826 / 39,656 / 24,615 / 257,683
4 – Upper East / 11,184 / 1,805 / 739 / 489 / 19,071 / 3,881 / 2,160 / 746 / 289 / 21 / 16 / 69 / 30,544 / 5,707 / 2,915 / 1,304 / 40,470
5 – Southeast / 10,475 / 2,912 / 1,064 / 1027 / 8,835 / 2,365 / 1,261 / 573 / 175 / 25 / 16 / 45 / 19,485 / 5,302 / 2,341 / 1,645 / 28,773
6–Gulf Coast / 59,451 / 24,227 / 19,615 / 15,458 / 61,227 / 20,385 / 36,318 / 15,003 / 2,147 / 451 / 475 / 1,244 / 122,825 / 45,063 / 56,408 / 31,705 / 256,001
7 – Central / 33,597 / 4,159 / 6,834 / 3,497 / 36,158 / 7,975 / 11,142 / 2,898 / 966 / 64 / 142 / 233 / 70,721 / 12,198 / 18,118 / 6,628 / 107,665
8 – South / 28,300 / 2,929 / 52,626 / 3,479 / 30,244 / 4,128 / 81,626 / 3,514 / 1,025 / 102 / 992 / 254 / 59,569 / 7,159 / 135,244 / 7,247 / 209,219
9 – West / 7,272 / 383 / 2,834 / 336 / 7,231 / 494 / 5,203 / 276 / 246 / 8 / 57 / 32 / 14,749 / 885 / 8,094 / 644 / 24,372
10 – URG / 2,767 / 490 / 16,594 / 702 / 1,741 / 399 / 19,068 / 433 / 63 / 11 / 170 / 22 / 4,571 / 900 / 35,832 / 1,157 / 42,460
Total / 242,544 / 53,494 / 115,386 / 37,492 / 265,884 / 64,990 / 191,880 / 36,817 / 7,675 / 939 / 2,234 / 2,867 / 516,103 / 119,423 / 309,500 / 77,176 / 1,022,202

Table 3: Derivation of 2015 Resident Student Population Controlled to CTG Enrollment Goal

Region of Residence / TSDC Projected 18 to 35-Year Olds in 2015 / Values Controlled to CTG Statewide Enrollment Goal
1 – High Plains / 238,792 / 45,345
2 – Northwest / 147,498 / 28,009
3 – Metroplex / 2,063,480 / 391,837
4 – Upper East / 279,458 / 53,067
5 – Southeast / 206,217 / 39,159
6 – Gulf Coast / 1,828,483 / 347,213
7 – Central / 881,581 / 167,405
8 – South / 1,395,115 / 264,921
9 – West / 147,622 / 28,032
10 – URG / 247,712 / 47,038
Total / 7,435,958 / 1,412,026

1

Controlling to new column and row totals

Raking, the procedure used to derive the figures in Table 3, was also used to control the sums of data in Table 2 to new column and row totals. However, the procedure was more complicated because controlling in one direction, for example to new row totals, would leave the data uncontrolled to the column totals. A subsequent controlling to new column totals would leave the data uncontrolled to the row totals. IPF was used to find the unique set of table entries that simultaneously summed to new column and row totals while preserving the “structure” of Table 2. The results are shown in Table 4. These are estimates of the fall 2015 population of Texas residents enrolled in public higher education, assuming the CTG goals will be met.

2.2 Discussion of Results

Table 5 shows the expected changes in resident student population at public institutions from 2007 to 2015.It projects that an additional 389,824 students will be enrolled. Some 326,722 of these additional students will be Hispanic, an increase of106 percent. The increase in Hispanic students will be far greater than the 23 percent (26,989) growth in African-American students and 9 percent (47,296) growth in White students. Hispanics will be the largest resident ethnic group in public higher education, exceeding Whites by nearly 73,000 students. The increase in Hispanic participation will be due to proportionally greater increases in the college age population than those of African-Americans and Whites (see TSDC projections for 18 to 35 year-olds in Appendix Table 1) and to greater increases in participation rates as expected in the CTG goals.

While the greatest numerical increase (over 232,000) in Hispanic participation will be at two-year institutions, the greatest percentage increase (148 percent) will be at health-related institutions. Hispanic participation will increase in every region of residence by type of institution category.

African-American participation in higher education will increase by a greater percentage than White participation because the TSDC projects a greater increase in the college age African-American population than for Whites. The TSDC projects a 14 percent increase in the number of 18 to 35 year-old African-Americans compared with an increase of 1 percent for Whites of the same age. (See the Appendix.) Population growth, rather than an increase in participation rate, will drive the increase in African-American participation.

These are some of the major findings from estimating the 2015 resident student population. The next step was to allocate these students to higher education institutions.

1

Table 4: Estimates of Fall 2015 Resident Student Population at Public Institutions if 2015 CTG Goals Are Met

Region of Residence / Four-Year Institutions / Two-Year Institutions / Health-Related Institutions / Total
White / African-American / Hispanic / Other / White / African-American / Hispanic / Other / White / African-American / Hispanic / Other / White / African-American / Hispanic / Other / All
1 – High Plains / 10,747 / 556 / 5,329 / 595 / 12,838 / 936 / 12,920 / 504 / 575 / 22 / 251 / 73 / 24,159 / 1,514 / 18,500 / 1,172 / 45,345
2–Northwest / 8,408 / 440 / 2,354 / 375 / 8,908 / 794 / 6,154 / 248 / 246 / 7 / 58 / 17 / 17,562 / 1,241 / 8,566 / 640 / 28,009
3 – Metroplex / 85,440 / 20,182 / 31,572 / 12,037 / 104,010 / 34,253 / 88,563 / 11,110 / 2,436 / 353 / 926 / 957 / 191,886 / 54,788 / 121,060 / 24,103 / 391,837
4 – Upper East / 12,712 / 2,184 / 1,887 / 485 / 22,991 / 5,218 / 6,466 / 630 / 338 / 30 / 54 / 72 / 36,041 / 7,432 / 8,407 / 1,187 / 53,067
5 – Southeast / 12,401 / 3,670 / 2,830 / 1,061 / 11,094 / 3,312 / 3,932 / 504 / 213 / 37 / 56 / 49 / 23,708 / 7,019 / 6,818 / 1,614 / 39,159
6 – Gulf Coast / 60,010 / 26,031 / 44,480 / 13,618 / 65,553 / 24,342 / 96,556 / 11,254 / 2,231 / 570 / 1,422 / 1,146 / 127,794 / 50,943 / 142,457 / 26,019 / 347,213
7 – Central / 40,927 / 5,393 / 18,702 / 3,718 / 46,719 / 11,493 / 35,749 / 2,624 / 1,212 / 98 / 513 / 259 / 88,858 / 16,983 / 54,964 / 6,601 / 167,405
8 – South / 18,215 / 2,007 / 76,094 / 1,954 / 20,647 / 3,143 / 138,376 / 1,681 / 679 / 82 / 1,893 / 149 / 39,542 / 5,232 / 216,363 / 3,784 / 264,921
9 – West / 5,515 / 309 / 4,828 / 222 / 5,816 / 443 / 10,392 / 156 / 192 / 8 / 128 / 22 / 11,523 / 760 / 15,349 / 400 / 28,032
10–URG / 1,375 / 259 / 18,527 / 305 / 918 / 235 / 24,960 / 160 / 32 / 7 / 251 / 10 / 2,325 / 501 / 43,738 / 474 / 47,038
Total / 255,749 / 61,029 / 206,603 / 34,370 / 299,495 / 84,170 / 424,068 / 28,870 / 8,155 / 1,213 / 5,551 / 2,753 / 563,399 / 146,412 / 636,222 / 65,993 / 1,412,026

Table 5: Changes in Resident Student Population at Public Institutions from Fall 2007 to Fall 2015 if CTG Goals Are Met

Region of Residence / Four-Year Institutions / Two-Year Institutions / Health-Related Institutions / Total
White / African-American / Hispanic / Other / White / African-American / Hispanic / Other / White / African-American / Hispanic / Other / White / African-American / Hispanic / Other / All
1 – High Plains / -823 / -6 / 2,775 / -139 / -192 / 84 / 7,639 / -226 / -26 / 3 / 160 / -13 / -1,042 / 81 / 10,574 / -378 / 9,235
2 – Northwest / 1,082 / 80 / 1,441 / 1 / 1,590 / 209 / 4,118 / -43 / 38 / 2 / 41 / 1 / 2,710 / 291 / 5,600 / -41 / 8,560
3 – Metroplex / 14,838 / 4,515 / 19,959 / 641 / 22,981 / 10,327 / 60,778 / -1,243 / 481 / 120 / 668 / 91 / 38,300 / 14,962 / 81,404 / -512 / 134,154
4 – Upper East / 1,528 / 379 / 1,148 / -4 / 3,920 / 1,337 / 4,306 / -116 / 49 / 9 / 38 / 3 / 5,497 / 1,725 / 5,492 / -117 / 12,597
5 – Southeast / 1,926 / 758 / 1,766 / 34 / 2,259 / 947 / 2,671 / -69 / 38 / 12 / 40 / 4 / 4,223 / 1,717 / 4,477 / -31 / 10,386
6 – Gulf Coast / 559 / 1,804 / 24,865 / -1,840 / 4,326 / 3,957 / 60,238 / -3,749 / 84 / 119 / 947 / -98 / 4,969 / 5,880 / 86,049 / -5,686 / 91,212
7 – Central / 7,330 / 1,234 / 11,868 / 221 / 10,561 / 3,518 / 24,607 / -275 / 246 / 34 / 371 / 26 / 18,137 / 4,785 / 36,846 / -27 / 59,740
8 – South / -10,085 / -922 / 23,468 / -1,525 / -9,597 / -985 / 56,750 / -1,833 / -346 / -20 / 901 / -105 / -20,027 / -1,927 / 81,119 / -3,463 / 55,702
9 – West / -1,757 / -74 / 1,994 / -114 / -1,415 / -51 / 5,189 / -120 / -54 / 0 / 71 / -10 / -3,226 / -125 / 7,255 / -244 / 3,660
10 – URG / -1,392 / -231 / 1,933 / -398 / -823 / -164 / 5,892 / -273 / -31 / -4 / 81 / -12 / -2,246 / -399 / 7,906 / -683 / 4,578
Total / 13,205 / 7,535 / 91,217 / -3,122 / 33,611 / 19,180 / 232,188 / -7,947 / 480 / 274 / 3,317 / -114 / 47,296 / 26,989 / 326,722 / -11,183 / 389,824

1

3. Allocation of Students to Institutions and Regions, by Ethnicity

3.1 Methodology

Texas resident students were assumed to go from their region of residence to each public institution in 2015 in the same pattern as in fall 2007, by ethnicity. Table 6provides an example of this pattern for five four-year institutions attended by students from region 1 (the High Plains). Students from region 1 actually enrolled in 32 of the 35 four-year public institutions in Texas in 2007, but only five institutions are shown in Table 6 to simplify the explanation of the methodology.

Table 6: Enrollment of Residents of Region 1 ina Sample of Five Four-Year Public Institutions,Fall 2007, by Ethnicity

Institution / White / African-American / Hispanic / Other
TexasTechUniversity / 5,153 / 217 / 1,080 / 469
WestTexasA&MUniversity / 4,117 / 166 / 1,075 / 135
MidwesternStateUniversity / 92 / 6 / 18 / 3
University of NorthTexas / 289 / 28 / 34 / 16
TexasA&MUniversity / 575 / 3 / 30 / 18
All 32 institutions attended / 11,570 / 562 / 2,554 / 734

Table 6 shows that the probability that a Hispanic student from region 1, who attends a four-year public institution, will attend TexasTechUniversity is 1,080/2,554 = 0.423. Because 5,329 Hispanic students from region 1 are expected to be enrolled in public four-year institutions in 2015 (see Table 4), the enrollment in 2015 of Hispanic students from region 1 at Texas Tech University is expected to be 5,329*(1,080/2,554) = 2,253 students. Similarly, the expected enrollment of African-American students from region 1 at TexasA&MUniversity is

556*(3/562) = 3 students.The resident enrollment allocated to each institution, by ethnicity, is then the sum of the expected enrollments coming from each of the ten regions, by ethnicity. Results are displayed in Tables 7 to 10. Tables 7 to 9 show enrollment allocations for four-year, two-year, and health-related public institutionsfor each institution as well as totals by region of institution and statewide. Table 10 shows the totals of data from Tables 7 to 9, by region of institution and statewide. The results are discussed in Section 3.5.

3.2 Adjustments to Data

All but two institutions provided targets for 2015 enrollment by ethnicity to the CB. Several adjustments were needed to the targets before they could be compared to the allocated enrollments. The adjustments were made in the following order:

  1. The sum of the targets for African-American, Hispanic, and White students exceeded the total target at one four-year institution and three two-year institutions. In these cases, the sum of the targets for the three ethnic groups was controlled to the total target by raking. These cases are footnoted in Tables 7and 8.
  1. TheUniversity of Texas at Brownsville and TexasSouthmostCollegedid not break out their targets by institution.To break them out, 25 percent of eachethnic target was allocated to the University and 75 percent to the College.
  1. The targets were for Texas residents andnonresidents, but the enrollment allocations in Tables 7 to 10 were only for residents. So fall 2007nonresident enrollment was subtracted from targets, in total and by ethnicity, to make the targets comparable to the allocations of resident enrollment. Nonresident enrollment was assumed to be the same in 2015 as in 2007, the same assumption that was made earlier to derive the 2015 CTG resident goals.
  1. The Other target for each institution was derived by subtracting the sum of the White, African-American, and Hispanic targets from the total target. In some cases this yielded a negative number because of the adjustment in step 3. These cases are denoted in Tables7and 8with an asterisk. The negative numbers were retained in the derivation of statewide totals.
  1. The University of Texas at Austin did not set targets by ethnicity. So targets for the three major ethnicities were imputed by prorating the total resident target (derived in step 3) using the proportions of 2015 allocated enrollment of the three ethnic groups for the University of Texas at Austin. Then the “Other” target was the difference between the total target and the sum of the three groups’ targets.
  1. NortheastLakeviewCollege, in the Alamo Community College District, is a relatively new campus and has not set any targets yet. Their targets were set equal to their 2015 allocated enrollment, by ethnicity and in total.

Individual campuses of two two-year systems did not set targets: Lone Star College System District (LSCSD - five campuses); and Tarrant County College District (Tarrant CCD – four campuses). So enrollment allocations were summed over the campuses for comparison with the system targets. Also, enrollment allocations and targets were aggregated for three other two-year systems that did set targets separately by campus, because it was considered more meaningful to focus on district-level data: Alamo Community College District (ACCD – five campuses); Dallas County Community College District (DCCCD – seven campuses); and San Jacinto College District (three campuses).

3.3 Addition of Nonresident Enrollment

After the above process that produced Tables 7 to 10, fall 2007 nonresident enrollment was added back into the 2007 enrollment and 2015 allocations and institutional targets for resident students, to provide an analysis of enrollment for all (resident and nonresident) public students. Nonresident enrollment was taken out of the earlier process so that Texas population projections could be used in the analysis. The results with the addition of nonresident enrollment are in Tables 11 to 14, and they are discussed in Section 3.5. As before, it was assumed that nonresident enrollment will be the same in 2015 as in 2007.

3.4 Incorporation of Enrollment “Caps”

Some institutions plan to limit, or cap, their enrollment. For example, the University of Texas at Austin wants to improve its student to faculty ratio by hiring more faculty and limiting enrollment. One way to incorporate these caps into the 2015 allocations is to allocate any excess enrollment to other institutions. It was assumed that the University of Texas at Austin and Texas A&M University (Texas’ two research universities) will both cap their enrollment at 50,000 students (resident plus nonresident) in fall 2015, and that the excess students will enroll at one of the seven emerging research universities in Texas, shown in Table 15. For example, Table 11 indicates that the two research universities will have a total excess of 3,691 + 9,311 = 13,002 students in fall 2015 if the CTG goals are met, without any caps on enrollment. These 13,002 students were allocated to the emerging research universities by raking the universities’ fall 2015 enrollments found in Table 11, by ethnicity. The results are in Table 15 for the seven institutions, and adjusted regional totals are shown in Table 16. See the next section for a discussion of the results.

3.5 Discussion of Results

Resident enrollment

Some totals differed slightly from CTG goals in Tables 7 to 10 (and 11 to 14), because of rounding.Table 7 indicates that the sum of the four-year institutions’ targets for fall 2015 for total students (536,660)was 96 percent of statewide enrollment allocated to meet CTG goals, a shortfall of about 21,000 students.However, at the institutional level slightly more than half (19) of the targets for total students exceededallocated enrollment, and the ratio of the target to the allocation varied from 0.61 to 2.45 for the 35 institutions. For Hispanic students, the sum of the institutions’ targets (156,471) was only 76 percent of the enrollment allocated to reach CTG goals, a difference of about 50,000 students. Some 30 of the 35 targets were below the allocated 2015 enrollment for Hispanics. Conversely, targets were too high for African-Americans at 33 institutions and for Whites at 25 institutions.

At two-year institutions and systems, the sum of the targets for total students (761,354) lagged the statewide enrollment allocated to meet CTG goals by about 75,000 students (9 percent below the allocation). (See Table 8.) Some 48 of the 58 entities set targets for total students that were below their allocations. The sums of targets for African-Americans and Whites were greater than the statewide allocations, with target to allocation ratios of 1.11 and 1.05, respectively. For Hispanics, however, the sum of the targets was only 70 percent of the statewide allocation (a difference of nearly 129,000 students), and only two of the 58 entities had a target that exceeded their allocation.