ONLINE APPENDIX

Further Robustness Checks

Table 1: Economic crises, signed IMF programs and conflict occurrence

ACD civil war onset 25 deaths
No / Yes / Total
Economic crises / 200 / 16 / 216
Economic crises and signed IMF program / 97 / 5 / 102

Robustness Check Table 2: Results with Alternative dependent variables and 2SLS-IV

ACD >25 battle deaths / ACD
(No-OECD) / Incidence 1000 / 2SLS-IV / 2SLS-IV: FE
Civil war equation / (1) / (2) / (3) / (4) / (5)
IMF Participation >5 Months dummy / 0.628 / 0.174 / 0.444 / 0.0372 / -0.0272
(0.391) / (0.443) / (0.532) / (0.0660) / (0.0898)
Total Population (log) / 0.189*** / 0.206*** / 0.0214 / 0.0102*** / 0.0359*
(0.0413) / (0.0449) / (0.0418) / (0.00232) / (0.0200)
GDP per capita (log) / -0.119 / -0.271*** / -0.0397 / -0.00346 / -0.0168
(0.0765) / (0.101) / (0.0980) / (0.00922) / (0.0169)
Trade Openness / 0.00185 / 0.00329* / -0.0109*** / 4.80e-05 / 6.36e-05
(0.00187) / (0.00194) / (0.00271) / (5.82e-05) / (0.000132)
Democracy dummy / 0.134 / 0.159 / -0.0494 / -0.00185 / 0.00306
(0.123) / (0.134) / (0.125) / (0.00954) / (0.0134)
Peace years Count / -0.0115** / -0.00145 / -0.219*** / -0.000821** / 0.00296***
(0.00569) / (0.00553) / (0.0550) / (0.000348) / (0.000680)
Oil Exporting countries dummy / 0.414*** / 0.534*** / 0.00964 / 0.0231*** / 0.0210
(0.142) / (0.159) / (0.222) / (0.00890) / (0.0265)
Neighbor at war dummy / -0.00498 / 0.0495 / -0.0568 / -0.00950 / -0.00316
(0.131) / (0.143) / (0.143) / (0.00635) / (0.00855)
Mountainous terrain / 0.000317 / -0.00142 / 0.00217
(0.00280) / (0.00326) / (0.00315)
Count of Years in IMF program / -0.00687
(0.00783)
Signed IMF program
GDP per capita (log) / -0.571*** / -0.489*** / -0.563***
(0.0305) / (0.0350) / (0.0328)
GDP growth rate / -0.00358 / -0.00338 / -0.00443
(0.00382) / (0.00379) / (0.00394)
Trade Openness / 0.000704 / -0.000292 / 0.000669
(0.000887) / (0.000959) / (0.000893)
Foreign Exchange Reserves / -0.0346*** / -0.0396*** / -0.0431***
(0.0116) / (0.0118) / (0.0134)
Currency crisis dummy / 0.175 / 0.189 / 0.202
(0.145) / (0.150) / (0.145)
Debt crisis dummy / 1.211*** / 1.155*** / 1.188***
(0.260) / (0.253) / (0.249)
Banking crisis dummy / 0.236 / 0.118 / 0.175
(0.155) / (0.165) / (0.162)
Ongoing civil war dummy / -0.370*** / -0.324*** / -0.310***
(0.0771) / (0.0798) / (0.102)
UNGA Voting Alignment Index / 3.493*** / 5.397*** / 3.492***
(0.453) / (0.586) / (0.454)
Count of Years in IMF program / 0.0489*** / 0.0401*** / 0.0494***
(0.00348) / (0.00367) / (0.00348)
Observations / 2266 / 2853 / 4717 / 4717
R-squared / 0.021 / 0.107
F-statistics / 66.50*** / 30.35***
Cragg-Donald F-statistic / 51.50*** / 28.78***
Hansen J-Statistic (p-value) / - / -

Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses; constant not shown; time and country dummies (in column 5) not shown; * p <.10, ** p <.05, *** p <.01

Robustness CheckTable 3: 2SLS-IV results with UNGA index based on Thacker’s method

ACD>25 deaths / 2SLS-IV / 2SLS-IV: FE
Civil war equation / (1) / (2) / (3)
IMF Participation >5 Months dummy / 0.554 / 0.289 / 0.254
(0.358) / (0.218) / (0.170)
Total Population (log) / 0.194*** / 0.00832** / 0.00494
(0.0421) / (0.00327) / (0.0288)
GDP per capita (log) / -0.119 / 0.0293 / 0.0270
(0.0769) / (0.0285) / (0.0274)
Trade Openness / 0.00223 / 6.68e-05 / 1.93e-05
(0.00176) / (7.68e-05) / (0.000157)
Democracy dummy / 0.117 / -0.0262 / -0.0169
(0.117) / (0.0238) / (0.0186)
Peace years Count / -0.0110** / -0.00133** / 0.00221***
(0.00551) / (0.000609) / (0.000802)
Oil Exporting countries dummy / 0.427*** / 0.0339** / 0.0383
(0.143) / (0.0139) / (0.0316)
Neighbor at war dummy / -0.0102 / -0.00734 / -0.00148
(0.131) / (0.00823) / (0.0108)
Mountainous terrain / -0.000492
(0.00283)
Signed IMF program
GDP per capita (log) / -0.528***
(0.0281)
GDP growth rate / -0.00264
(0.00395)
Trade Openness / 0.000566
(0.000890)
Foreign Exchange Reserves / -0.0354***
(0.0117)
Currency crisis dummy / 0.175
(0.145)
Debt crisis dummy / 1.181***
(0.262)
Banking crisis dummy / 0.234
(0.155)
Ongoing civil war dummy / -0.355***
(0.0774)
UNGA Voting Alignment Index / 2.028***
(0.329)
Count of Years in IMF program / 0.0501***
(0.00351)
Observations / 2853 / 4717 / 4717
F-statistics / 7.07*** / 8.82***
Cragg-Donald F-statistic / 7.14*** / 8.55***
Hansen J-Statistic (p-value) / - / -

Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses; constant not shown; time and country dummies (in column 2) not shown; * p <.10, ** p <.05, *** p <.01

Robustness CheckTable 4:Estimations testing exclusion restriction of UNGA voting index

(1) / (2)
ACD civil war onset>25 deaths / Kegley and Hook / Thacker
Probit / Probit
Constant / -3.144*** / -3.406***
(0.736) / (0.732)
UNGA Voting Alignment Index / 0.909 / 1.140**
(0.836) / (0.475)
Total Population (log) / 0.151*** / 0.162***
(0.0314) / (0.0317)
GDP per capita (log) / -0.204*** / -0.211***
(0.0408) / (0.0388)
Trade Openness / 0.000290 / 0.000145
(0.00138) / (0.00141)
Democracy dummy / 0.000163 / -0.00678
(0.0965) / (0.0941)
Peace years Count / -0.0133*** / -0.0122***
(0.00434) / (0.00437)
Oil Exporting countries dummy / 0.359*** / 0.394***
(0.105) / (0.108)
Neighbor at war dummy / -0.164 / -0.190*
(0.113) / (0.114)
Mountainous terrain / 0.000385 / 0.000288
(0.00183) / (0.00182)
Pseudo R2 / 0.1196 / 0.1231
Time Dummies / YES / YES
Observations / 4208 / 4208

Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses; time and country dummies (in column 2) not shown; * p <.10, ** p <.05, *** p <.01