Presenting the Global Calculator - speaking notes
The Global Calculator is a free and open-source model of the world’s energy, land and food systems that helps you to understand the link between our lifestyles, the energy we use, and the consequences for our climate.
You are welcome to present the Global Calculator to your colleagues, clients, students or anyone you think may be interested in exploring what a low-carbon world could look like in 2050. This document is designed to make it as easy as possible for you to present it by giving you a basic script and taking you through where to click at each step. The script contains two parts:
1. Introducing the tool – explaining how the Global Calculator works so that people are ready to use it to debate what actions to take as a group, or to feel confident using it independently. (c.10 minutes)
2. Using the tool to demonstrate the key messages from the report Prosperous living for the world in 2050 (that as lifestyles continue to improve, we must transform the technologies and fuels we use, and make smarter use of our limited land resources, if we are to tackle climate change) (c.20 minutes).
The script could be just the start of your presentation. Depending on your audience, there may be sectors or issues that you would like to explore in more detail.
Here are a few other suggestions for follow-up activities:
· If you are sharing one screen, ask your audience to suggest what actions they think could have a big impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Start on the IEA’s 2DS pathway (one version of the future where we keep climate change below 2°C) and see what impact each suggestion has on total emissions and temperature by clicking levels 1, 2, 3 and 4. Are any findings surprising? Try and identify the levers that have the biggest impact and discuss why this might be.
· Using the lifestyle levers, ask your audience which actions it would be easier to take to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. How do you think the world could change behaviour, and what impact would that have? Which changes would be harder to implement? What infrastructure, policies or education programmes would you implement to build a low-carbon future?
· If you are sharing one screen, start building a pathway together that meets the 2°C target. Start with the IEA’s 6DS pathway. You can ask people to suggest ideas, or take them through each lever in turn. Let your audience vote for level 1, 2, 3 or 4 each time. Remember you can explore the impact of your choices in more detail by looking at the lifestyle, technology and fuels, and land and food tabs.
· If your audience has access to separate computers, split them into small groups and ask them to build a pathway that meets the 2°C target, starting on the IEA’s 6DS pathway (business as usual). Call them back together and ask them to present their pathways to each other, and explain why they made their choices.
Tips
· The direct link to the Global Calculator tool is http://tool.globalcalculator.org. You will need an internet connection to run it.
· The tool is designed to be viewed on a desktop or laptop computer, but can be projected onto a big screen if you have a larger audience. If you use a projector, the audience may not be able to read all the text on the screen, but will be able to see the graphs moving and therefore see the impact of their choices.
· The tool is available in English, Chinese, Portuguese and Bahasa Indonesia – just select the language you want in the top right-hand corner. French, Spanish and Russian will be available soon.
· Make sure you have had a go at using the tool before you attempt to present it. It will be easier and you will have more confidence if you can use your own words to explain how it works. There is more information on how to use the tool, including a video, on the website’s Using the calculator section.
· There is no “right” way to present the Global Calculator, and the script here is only a suggestion that we hope will be helpful. You should adapt the content of your demonstration to suit your audience and your own presenting style. In our experience, however, it is best to start clicking on levers quite soon after you start, rather than spending too much time giving background information.
· Use personal anecdotes where possible to make it more interesting for your audience. For example, talk about what you have learnt from the tool or found particularly interesting.
· Some levers have more of a “wow factor” than others, e.g. Travel, “mode”; Homes, “building size”; Manufacturing, “design, materials & recycling”; Food, “livestock (grains/residues fed)”; Diet, “quantity of meat” and "type of meat". Some have less of an impact than you might expect, e.g. Renewables, “marine”.
· We have also produced a presentation pack, with slides explaining the background to the project, how the tool works, and more details about how each sector is modelled. It is designed so that you can pick and choose slides to build your own presentation. This is available on the website.
· We have also produced a frequently asked questions document to help you answer people’s questions. Don’t worry if you don’t know the answer – you can often find out by pulling a few levers or clicking on a lever name. You can also point people to the Global Calculator website.
· Audience questions often lead to really good discussions – be ready to “go with the flow” and follow the interests of the audience.
· If you build a pathway during your session, remember that you can save or share it. Click “share” in the top right hand corner of the tool to get a unique URL link. Why not share your pathway via Twitter using the hashtag #GlobalCalculator?
· The Global Calculator team would love to hear about how your presentation went, and welcome feedback. Email
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1. Introducing the tool
Speech / Action / Picture1 / The Global Calculator is an interactive model of the world’s energy, land and food systems to 2050.
It puts you in control of what happens in the future so you can see the impact on greenhouse gas emissions and the climate. / Overview tab (with all the orange drop-down lever lists open, and IEA 6DS scenario selected from the drop-down screen). /
2 / You do this by making choices using these 40 or so “levers”.
These levers are grouped into themes of lifestyle, technology and fuels, land and food, and demographics. / Indicate levers at the bottom of the page /
3 / Each lever relates to an action to reduce emissions. Each has a range from level 1 to level 4, which you can click on to select.
Levels 1-4 represent the full range of what’s possible for that action. The levels are based on the views of over 150 experts the team consulted when building the model.
· Level 1 is minimal effort to reduce emissions or the highest emissions case.
· Level 2 is ambitious effort.
· Level 3 is very ambitious effort.
· And level 4 is extraordinary ambitious effort to reduce emissions.
Let’s look at an example.
For nuclear power, you can choose anything between completely phasing out nuclear power by 2050, to ramping it up at the fastest rate which is technically feasible. Just click on levels 1, 2, 3 or 4.
You can see the impact of your choices on the graphs above. / Show levels 1-4 of nuclear lever
Click on each level as you explain. Indicate the moving graphs above. /
4 / For more detail about each lever, you can see a short explanation by clicking on the lever’s name.
For this lever, you can see level 1 is gradual phase out of nuclear power, while level 4 shows a rapid increase in the amount of nuclear power stations across the world. / Open nuclear one pager by clicking on the lever name or the (i) next to it.
Indicate levels 1 to 4 on the graph. /
5 / The Calculator allows you to see a range of implications of your choices.
Starting with the overview page, you can see three things: energy, emissions, and warming.
· We have the energy supply and demand on the left.
· In the middle we have global emissions to 2100 and the cumulative emissions in 2100. The aim is to keep emissions below the red line. This shows a 50% chance of 2 degrees.
· On the right we have a thermometer, which shows the global mean temperature rise from your choices. / Back to overview tab. Indicate graphs at the top of the screen. /
6 / If you want to explore implications for the global lifestyle, you can see impacts in the “lifestyle” tab. For example, let’s look at travel.
You can see how our choice of “mode” affects the type of travel we use, and our global emissions. / Lifestyle tab, travel section
Click “mode” lever levels 1 to 4. /
7 / If you change the technology and fuel levers, you can see the impacts in the “technology and fuels” tab at the top.
For example, you can see:
· what sort of cars we are driving in the future
· how we will generate electricity
· how much energy we will use in manufacturing
· and how much fossil fuel reserves we will have left. / Technology and fuels tab. /
8 / And if you change the land and food levers, you can see impacts in the “land and food” tab.
For example, this graph shows how the world’s land use changes over the next 40 years. / Land and food tab. /
9 / You can see more detail on climate change impacts, particularly how a global mean temperature rise translates into warming at a regional level. / Climate tab, temperature change maps section
Indicate the map /
10 / Finally you can explore the costs implications from your pathway
This graph compares the cost of the energy system in your pathway to that of a business as usual pathway. / Costs tab /
2. Using the tool to demonstrate the key messages from the report
Speech / Action / Picture11 / When you open the Global Calculator, it automatically shows you a “business as usual” pathway, the International Energy Agency’s 6 Degree Scenario, or 6DS.
By 2050:
· global population could rise from 7 billion to 10 billion
· the global economy is expected to triple in size
· energy demand could increase by around 70%
· food demand could rise by around 45% putting pressure on land
You can see that if we do not take action, the resulting increase in energy and food demand would cause around 4 to 5 degrees of warming.
If you look at the cumulative emissions graph, you can see that we need to approximately halve the amount of greenhouse gases we release.
So - is it possible to limit climate change to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, as countries have agreed?
Yes – the Global Calculator shows you that:
· We can meet climate targets and ensure good living standards by 2050
· But to do so we need to transform the technologies and fuels we use
· We need to make smarter use of our limited land resources. / Overview tab
Select IEA 6DS from drop-down menu (business as usual)
Indicate thermometer on the right
Indicate cumulative CO2 emissions graph next to the thermometer. /
12 / We can illustrate these points using one example pathway, called Distributed Effort.
This gets to 2°C, but takes the same life-style choices as a view of business as usual.
It focuses effort to reduce emissions on technology, fuels, land use and food production.
Effort is equal across each of these non-lifestyle levers – at level 2.8. / Select Distributed Effort from the drop-down menu /
13 / So what would our lifestyle be like?
We could own more appliances. For example, every urban household could own a washing machine by 2050.
We also have enough land to ensure that everyone has enough to eat: 2180 calories per head today, rising to 2330 calories per head in 2050. / Lifestyle tab, homes, appliances section.
Indicate appliances per household graph on left. /
14 / But to power these lifestyles, we need action on technology and fuels
First, we need greater energy efficiency across all sectors
· Buildings must be 50-65% better insulated
· Goods manufacturers should reduce energy demand for materials production up to 25% by 2050 through smarter product design.
· For transport our cars should be around 50% more efficient / Technology and fuels > buildings > insulation section.
Indicate building insulation (heat loss) graph in the middle. /
15 / Second, we need to use more electricity to power our technology and heat our homes. For example up to 35% of our cars should be electric or hydrogen by 2050.
These are the blue and yellow sections in this graph. / Technology and fuels > transport > cars – technology and fuel
Indicate number of cars on the road graph on left – blue and yellow sections are electric and hydrogen. /
16 / This could mean that the global supply of electricity would almost need to double from 2011 by 2050.
This needs to be met by largely decarbonised electricity, with emissions per unit of electricity globally falling by at least 90% by 2050.
Here you can see coal and gas (in red and green) being phased out by 2050 and replaced by renewables, nuclear, and carbon capture and storage.
Substitution away from fossil fuels is critical. Fossil fuel use must fall from 82% of our primary energy supply today to around 40% by 2050.
This means that we need to keep about 35-50% of current oil reserves, 50% of current gas reserves, and 80-85% of current coal reserves in the ground by 2050. / Technology and fuels > electricity > electricity
Indicate electricity supply graph on the right /
17 / Land use and forestry is vital.
We should expand forest area by 5 to 15% by 2050, as it acts as a valuable store of carbon.
You can see the forest area here in light and dark green, growing in size from 2010 to 2050.
To achieve this by 2050 we would need to:
· increase the average number of cows per hectare, from 0.6 to 1 by 2050.
· increase crop yields by 40% to 60%.
· use multi-cropping to reduce the land required for crops by a further 10%. / Land and food > land use
Indicate land use graph /
18 / Switching people’s diets from beef and lamb, to poultry, pork, vegetables and grains can have a big impact on land use.
This is because an area the size of a football/soccer pitch can be used to produce:
· 250 kg of beef
· 1 000 kg of poultry
· Or 15 000 kg of fruit and vegetables. / Land and food > yields
Indicate yield graph and beef, poultry and fruit and vegetables columns. /
19 / The Global Calculator estimates the total capital, operating and fuel costs of each pathway. It includes these costs for all technologies, such as cars, appliances, and power plants.
Under business as usual, the total energy system cost could more than double by 2050, as we replace old technology and continue to grow and develop.
The total cost of a decarbonised energy system is only fractionally higher. And in some cases it could even be cheaper than business as usual.
The 2°C example pathways that maintain business as usual lifestyle range from:
· saving 2% of global GDP compared to business as usual
· being more expensive by 3% of global GDP.
This does not include the costs of climate change or other welfare costs.
But costs are highly uncertain. The graph shows that the uncertainty bands of pathways overlap.
Bringing down clean technology capital costs is clearly critical to cutting costs overall.
We need research, development, demonstration and deployment of technologies like:
· hybrid, electric and hydrogen cars
· electricity storage
· Carbon capture and storage
· heat pumps
· onshore wind
· and solar PV. / Costs > summary
Indicate the graph, which compares Distributed Effort (brown line) with 6DS (blue line)
Indicate the shaded areas on the graph, which show the possible range of costs. /
20 / 2050 is not the end of the journey. We need to continue to reduce emissions to 2100
We need strong leadership from businesses, civil society and politicians to achieve this.
We need support for urgent action to cut emissions through an ambitious global deal at Paris at the end of 2015. / Overview > summary
Indicate Global GHG emissions per year graph in the middle. /
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