01d PROJECT Short Introduction
The SOURCE data sheets within subdirectories of that major directory could serve a number of purposes butcan be regarded as supporting 4, largely unanalyzed, overlapping projects.
EXPT 1. (1997-2000 and continuing) Population dynamics
The hive stands at the different field sites were established with empty nest blocks in different years between 1997 and 2001. Data sheets within the locality_Information workbook for the years prior to 2001 provide overwintering annual census totals for the locality, as well as numbers culled or harvested. The SUMMARY_OF_NEST_COUNTS_BY_FATE spreadsheet follows the fluctuation in total populations from 2001-2008 across the 3 localities. Its parent sheets are in nearby directories, as are the basic data, the SOURCE spreadsheets. The ESO2010 presentation showed that species lists grew very slowly and that no species were likely lost. However there were trends in abundance that threatened the complete loss of a few species.
EXPT 2. (2001-3 and continuing) Spatial patterns
The SOURCE spreadsheets show the nests of each generation separately, but comparisons between the old and new generations of a species are easily made as the positions of the nest blocks are largely unchanged over the years, any shifts or replacements being shown on the sheet. The drafts in 07manuscripts&analyses/Project2001 and ~2002 describe, for generations 2000-2, a species by species analysis that shows three spatial patterns of the new nests relative to the old when nests are not crowded (P0 random nesting, P1 peak density in the old nests, P2 peak density adjacent to the old nests). This analysis consists of a pilot project (2001) that establishes predictions for a larger main experiment (2002) with randomization tests and sensitivity analysis. Analyses like these could be extended to the unanalyzed data for later years, bearing in mind that the hives are generally changing from sparse occupation to crowding. Also it should be possible, with nesting pattern rules and information about fecundity and flight periods (including timing and so species ordering), to devise an individual behavioral model yielding multispecies null model nesting patterns for comparison with real data.
EXPT 3. (2004-6 and continuing) The critical stage in nest survival, and causes of death; 'nest wars'
(i) Nest by nest records from 2004 onwards give counts of survivors at 6 developmental stages with likely causes of death. Classically, key factor analysis identifies the factors most responsible for the fluctuation of population across space within a given year or of the hive stand's total population across years. For a temporal and
spatial entomological example by Liebhold & Elkinton (1988) see 09reference_notes. Royama (1996) has perhaps overharshly criticized key factor analysis but it should at least provide a useful first look at the data.
(ii) It is possible to identify some causes of nest death back to 2001, and it would be interesting to discover the factors that predict death.
(iii) The diary sheets, and dates within the records for females on, or eggs in, nests, should guide the theorist as to the extent and ordering of the different species’ flight periods. Some other nest events are also dated. The diary spreadsheet is to be found in the locality_Information workbook, e.g., JOKERS_Information.
(iv) Dates and codings for nest supersedure and nest destruction (2006 and onwards), and stage survival records, are now providing a useful picture of interspecies aggression. When nests are crowded there is interspecific competition for nesting space and a nester make dig out an earlier nest or a later nest may be penetrated by the emergence of an earlier nest ('nest wars'). The generation 2006 SOURCE spreadsheets contain stereotyped comments that make very explicit any definite interactions between nests of the same or adjacent generations in the same nest cavity (='bore'). A talk to the ESO in 2008 gave 'pecking orders'. Intraspecific competition is one possible explanation for the rare 'banded' nests of Symmorphus canadensis in which prepupal colour and sex change along the bore (ESO2007). See subdirectories of 08_Communications for talks.
D. Expt 4 (2007-onwards and earlier) Can harvests and culls restore biodiversity?
Populations had become unmanageably large for me. The immediate field impression of species-neutral harvesting (‘harvesting’ in the records) is that it opens space for immigrant species that have been excluded by the dominant species. Harvesting only targeted species (often called ‘culling’ in the records) provides less space but without reducing the production of extant desired species.