CAS/THORPEX ICSC9/Doc.2.4.1.1, p. 29

Figure 6: Plate shows MJO activity during the “year”. Weak and short lived MJOs during the first part of the ‘year” gave way to two strong successive MJOs during the latter part. The red bands show the four transpose AMIP periods identified for Transpose AMIP (CMIP5) model evaluations involving eight climate models. [Plate, courtesy Matt Wheeler]

Future work

Ø  Identify support for the research phase of YOTC from funding agencies worldwide

Ø  Continue communication of the YOTC project to the international community

Ø  Convene the YOTC International Science Symposium, May 16-19, 2010, hosted by China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing, China jointly with the 8th Asian Monsoon Years (AMY) Workshop

2.7 Collaboration with GEOSS

The purpose of GEOSS as agreed at the 2005 Ministerial meeting is;

Ø  To achieve comprehensive, coordinated and sustained observations of the Earth system, in order to improve monitoring of the state of the Earth, increase understanding of Earth processes, and enhance prediction of the behaviour of the Earth system. GEOSS will meet the need for timely, quality long-term global information as a basis for sound decision making, and will enhance delivery of benefits to society.

The 2015 strategic targets respond to the call of the 2008 G8 Summit in Tokyo to accelerate GEOSS efforts to meet the growing demand for Earth observations. Also, they are a further step towards addressing the challenges articulated by the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development, including the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals.

The Strategic Weather Target is that before 2015, GEO aims to:

Ø  Close critical gaps in meteorological, ocean and related observations, enhance observational capabilities, and improve weather information, especially for high impact events and in the developing world.

Ø  This will be achieved through the programmes and activities of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and building on enhanced observational capabilities, which will:

Ø  Monitor the performance and impact of global meteorological and related ocean observing systems, and facilitate the closure of critical gaps in observations and capabilities, utilizing a mix of space-based and in-situ observing systems as appropriate;

Ø  Make progress towards implementing the Vision for the Global Observing System 2025;

Ø  Encourage the design and implementation of optimal observational networks to better meet the needs of users for observational data;

Ø  Promote the improvement of data assimilation, modeling systems, and verification and assessment techniques;

Ø  Advance the use of observations in forecasting and warning services globally, advocate for research and development in key areas and encourage the rapid transfer of related research outcomes into operational use, especially in developing countries;

Ø  Encourage more direct, two-way interactions between users, managers of observing systems and providers of forecasts, building on enhanced observational capabilities to improve the forecast process;

Ø  Provide integrated data collection and automated dissemination of observational data and products, as well as data discovery, access and retrieval services.

Ø  This will be demonstrated by:

Ø  Identification and addressing of critical gaps in observational networks that reflect, in particular, the needs of developing countries, the need for continuity in space-based and in-situ observations, and the potential benefits of an interactive observing system to support user needs

Ø  Improvements in the range and quality of services for high impact weather forecasting due to the design, future development, and operation of global observing, data assimilation, numerical modelling, and user application techniques

Ø  More accurate, reliable and relevant weather analyses, forecasts, advisories and warnings of severe and other high impact hydrometeorological events enabled by enhanced observational capabilities

2.7.1 WWRP-THORPEX activities within the GEO 2012-15 Work Plan

There are several Tasks within the new Work Plan to which WWRP-THORPEX contributes

WE-01 C1 “Global Multi-Model Prediction System for High-Impact Weather”

Task Leads - WMO (WWRP/THORPEX)

Priority Actions

Ø  Further develop TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Global Grand Ensemble), a user-friendly database of global ensemble weather forecasts. Use web-enabled technology to foster the generation and distribution of products. Develop a future archive strategy, product generation and service provision. Finalize and implement access arrangements

Ø  Implement the Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS). As an initial step, produce user-driven probabilistic products (based on TIGGE forecasts) such as tropical cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall and strong wind distributions. Build upon the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) to provide a framework for the evaluation of these prototype products, and to ensure that products address needs of operational forecasters and end-users.

Funding for TIGGE data bases in Europe - GEOWOW

A consortium of European institutions has submitted a proposal, GEOWOW (GEOSS Interoperability for Weather Ocean and Water), for funding through the European Union Framework Programme. GEOWOW proposes to:

  1. Consolidate global data discovery and enable global access to, and use of, Earth Observation data and resources (computing, data handling tools, model etc.) through the GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI)
  2. Develop tools and protocols to promote the implementation of the GEOSS Data Sharing Principles, and the re-use and dissemination of Earth Observation data
  3. Develop operational capabilities of the GCI through applications in three areas:
  1. Weather, with a focus on unified access to Earth Observations and forecasting systems for hazard and extreme meteorological events
  2. Water, with a focus on hydrological applications and run-off process using in-situ and satellite data
  3. Ecosystem, with a focus on the implementation of GOOS by engineering and testing access to Ocean data via the GCI.
  1. Enhance multidisciplinary interoperability
  2. Analyse the benefits of GEOSS for Europe using models linking economy, environment, and society

The GEOWOW proposal, which includes a TIGGE weather element, is led by the European Space Agency (ESA). The weather element of the proposal involves further development and integration of the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) global weather forecasts data products into the GCI which will be undertaken by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the UK Met Office and Météo-France – the requested funding for the TIGGE weather element is 1.2 M€.

WE-01 C2 “Easy Access to, and Use of, High-impact Weather Information”

Task Leads - Korea (KMA), Spain (AEMET), WMO (WWRP/THORPEX), ACMAD

Priority Actions

Ø  Support the implementation of THORPEX Africa in developing a common platform to collect, store and exchange data – not only observations and model outputs but also event documentation, particularly impacts on African society, economy and environment. This platform would also contain specific detailed case studies as well as archive ongoing High Impact Weather events across Africa with the intention of improving prediction through promoting collaboration between the research and operational communities.

Ø  Extend the concept of Virtual Centers for high-impact weather prevention to Central America, building upon the experience of the operational Centre for Eastern South America. Deploy weather-watching networks (based on remote sensing) to better detect and forecast high- impact weather

Ø  Facilitate technical cooperative activities for the exchange of weather prediction hardware, software, technologies, and expertise

Ø  Develop training activities for the use of numerical weather prediction, meteorological satellite images and meteorological radar data, as a prerequisite to the implementation of early warning systems

Task WE-01 C2:

Ø  Will be implemented in connection with IN-01 (Earth Observing Systems), IN-03 (GEOSS Common Infrastructure), ID-02 (Institutional and Individual Capacity), ID-04 (Building a User-driven GEOSS), ID-05 (Catalysing Resources for GEOSS), SB-01 (Oceans and Society), DI-01 (Disaster Risk Reduction), CL-01 (Climate Information), WA-01 (Integrated Water Information) and AG-01 (Global Agricultural Monitoring)

Ø  And is related to 2009-2011 Work Plan Tasks (non exhaustive) WE-06-03: TIGGE and the Development of a Global Interactive Forecast System for Weather WE-09-01a) Infrastructure for Numerical Weather Prediction WE-09-01b) Socio-economic Benefits in Africa from Improved Predictions of High-Impact Weather

CL-01 C3 “Weather, Climate and Earth-System Prediction Systems”

Task Leads - IGBP, WCRP, WMO (WWRP/THORPEX)

Priority Actions

Ø  Foster advances on seamless prediction, sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction, and polar prediction through the implementation of dedicated international research projects

Ø  Improve the representation of organized tropical convection in models and of its interaction with the global circulation. In particular, further support the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC). Develop diagnostics/metrics for robust simulation of the Madden Julian Oscillation.

2.7.2 Concluding remarks

The contributions from the WWRP-THORPEX area of responsibility (and the WMO more generally) form very important elements of the new GEO Work Plan and GEOSS. This is a two way supportive relationship in which the GEO framework can help WWRP-THORPEX deliver its objectives in these areas by linking activities, providing visibility at ministerial level and identifying resource mobilisation opportunities.

3. Predictability and Dynamical Processes

THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Process research has provided the framework for the academic dynamical meteorology community and the operational numerical weather prediction centres to carry out joint projects. The THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Processes Working Group (PDP WG) has encouraged these communities to carry out dynamical process studies with the specific aim of improving the understanding of the relationship between particular processes and weather forecast accuracy. During the first phase of THORPEX, These studies have

  1. Contributed to the preparation and evaluation of international field experiments
  2. Raised the awareness in the PDP community of the research objectives of THORPEX and the availability of THORPEX data sets (notably TIGGE, T-PARC, YOTC)
  3. Supported the development of research projects dedicated to THORPEX PDP research
  4. Established a linkage to WGNE on the issue of model uncertainties
  1. Promoted THORPEX through the organisation of summer schools, sessions at international conferences and dedicated workshops
  2. Identified key topics for future PDP research

Several key examples of these activities include

(i)  Summer and winter T-PARC campaigns in 2008/2009 and the start of the preparation of a field experiment T-NAWDEX during the second phase of THORPEX

(ii)  The setup of informal “Interest Groups” for discussing recent achievements and outstanding research questions during the first two years of THORPEX and the presentation of PDP overview talks at international conferences and workshops, highlighting in particular the newly available data sets from TIGGE, YOTC, and TPARC

(iii)  Several research initiatives (see the section on regional committees) profited from the overall THORPEX structure and the international exchange about research priorities and field experiments, leading to several PDP-oriented nationally funded research projects

(iv)  Organization, with WGNE, of two workshops on Model Errors (ETH Zurich, 2010) and on Stochastic Processes (ECMWF 2011)

(v)  The preparation of a first PDP summer school at the Banff International Research Station (BIRS) for Mathematical Innovation and Discovery, Canada, in July 2011 on Advanced Mathematical Methods to Study Atmospheric Dynamical Processes and Predictability, and the organization of numerous PDP sessions at conferences and workshops

(vi)  An attempt to regularly review and critically discuss the development in key PDP research areas. The development in some of these areas during the first phase of THORPEX will be outlined briefly in the next sub-sections.

3.1 TPARC

The three related THORPEX experiments T-PARC, TCS08 and Winter T-PARC were aimed at increasing understanding of how and why (a) Typhoons form (or do not form) in the West-Pacific TCS-08) (b) Typhoons or ex-Typhoon vortices interact with mid-latitude jet streams (T-PARC) and (c) supplemental targeted observations reduce or fail-to-reduce forecast error (TCS08, T-PARC and Winter T-PARC). Major findings in the area of dynamical atmospheric processes and the ability of models to predict observed processes and associated recommendations include the following:

1.  Despite the fact that the Easterly wave from which Typhoon Nuri formed could be tracked for 10 days preceding the TC formation, a suite of numerical forecast models failed to capture the formation until 48 hrs before the event (Lussier 2010). The inability of current weather forecast models to simulate the effect of moist processes on Easterly waves (Sean Milton, personal communication) is no doubt part of the reason for this failure. Such systematic errors will strongly limit our ability to predict high impact tropical vortex events. Further study of the effect of moist processes on equatorial waves such as Easterly waves is strongly recommended, as is the development of parameterizations of moist processes that improve the realism of simulated tropical waves while not degrading representations of moist processes in mid-latitudes.

2.  Aircraft missions into pre-depression Hagupit revealed a developing cyclonic low-level circulation (LLC) four days prior to the issuance of a tropical cyclone formation alert (Bell and Montgomery 2010). Model analyses and satellite imagery suggested that the early circulation was part of a westward propagating disturbance at 18N latitude, well displaced from the ITCZ and any southwesterly monsoonal flow. Studies comparing the frequency, persistency, size and location of cyclonic LLCs in numerical simulations of the tropics with those from analyses are strongly encouraged because both theory and observations confirm their importance in the development of intense tropical vortices.

3.  The analyses of in situ data obtained during the formations of TY Nuri and TY Hagupit have been generalized to a broad set of convective episodes using satellite data to examine 16 ring-like mesoscale convective events (Elsberry and Chollet 2010). Comparison with 25 km resolution ECMWF analyses from the Year of the Tropical Convection (YOTC) archive has revealed the three-dimensional structure of the synoptic environment of the mesoscale convective events. Studies comparing the frequency, persistency, size and location of ring-like meso-scale convective events in high-resolution numerical simulations of the tropics with those from analyses are also encouraged. The YOTC data set may prove useful in providing initial and boundary conditions for high-resolution regional simulations.

4.  The performance of the ECMWF, UKMO, GFS, and NOGAPS models in predicting tropical cyclone formation has been evaluated (Elsberry et al. 2009). When all four global model forecasts were in agreement as to position and evolution, high confidence can be given to the prediction scenario with few false alarms. Studies on how to optimally combine information from forecasts and ensembles from distinct NWP centres is strongly encouraged. Such multi-centre ensembles are now readily accessible to the wider research community via the TIGGE data base.

5.  Adding stochasticforcing to the NOGAPS ensemble improved the rate of detection of genesis in the WPAC during the TPARC period (Snyder et al., 2011). False alarm rates also went up, but false alarm rates went up less than the detection rate, indictating some promise for stochastic convection to help with this forecast problem. Further study of the representation of the stochastic nature of unresolved sub-grid scale processes and their representation in parameterization schemes and/or stochastic model forcing is strongly encouraged.