From Bush to Obama in the Middle East: Change We Can’t Believe In.
Michael Young

Michael Young presented a more nuanced analysis of the Bush political legacy in the Middle East than is common these days. Generally the invasion of Iraq and the miserable execution of the follow up are taken as the bench mark to show that the Bush era was failure. In fact, the Iraq fiasco is the exception that proves the rule. Bush was no better or worse than his predecessors. Though the invasion was unilateral, subsequent steps were generally executed in a consensual context, using the UN presence on the ground to advantage. Concerning Israel, while much was anti-Palestinian, there was no break with international consensus. For example, he used the Quartet and convoked the Annapolis meeting. True, there was no success, but no amount of energy is going to solve this problem at present.

Concerning Lebanon, the departure of the Syrians was pulled off with international consensus. In short, Bush policy was no different that of Clinton. Finally, Bush fell into the traditional US habits in the region: when the weapons of mass destruction wore thin as an argument he turned to encouraging democracy and that theme finally fell into neglect.

What will the Obama era produce? The administration is clearly Clinton II. Foreign policy will not be marked by any revolutionary stances, though Hilary Clinton’s strong personality may allow her to pursue her own agenda. In any case, foreign policy is not a priority; the priority is financial. A new president tries to show early how effective his governance is. The Middle East is a graveyard for efforts at effectiveness. On Iraq there is a consensus that the US should not withdraw too quickly. One of Obama’s people has said: Iraq is yesterday’s war. Obama himself has said that Iraq is the wrong war, the real battle is Afghanistan and he proposes an increase of troops there. He has proposed direct talks with Iran; there are already contacts. The problematic position is his willingness to engage in discussion with Syria. He will not go back to 1976 but the worry is that contact with Syria will give the latter room to make gains in Lebanon. How much contact with Syria will produce is not clear. Syria will not break with Hizballah nor with Iran. Maybe the lack of any real progress will cause the Obama administration to recalculate.

A lively discussion followed.