MTH/217 Version 2 / 1
Criminal Justice Scenario
“Our criminal justice system isn’t as smart as it should be… [It] remains particularly skewed by race and by wealth.” - President Barack Obama, 2015
The public wants to know if this is true. You and your team of unbiased, objective analysts have been hired to evaluate these claims. You will use census data, data from the Bureau of Justice, and data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation to calculate probabilities that will either support or refute these claims.There are three main roles in this project.
There are three main roles in this scenario. Select a role and complete the task listed under the role.
Role#1: Race Analyst
Are there people of a certain race that are more likely to be arrested? Your task is to use data to calculate the probability that someone arrested in 2014 was Hispanic/Latino, Black, White, American Indian/Alaskan Native, or Asian. Then compare those probabilities to the probability of selecting a person of that race out of the total population of the United States.
- Use the following links to find your data:
- In other words, if an arrested person was selected at random in 2014, what is the probability that the person was Hispanic/Latino, Black, White, American Indian/Alaskan Native, or Asian? Calculate each probability.
- If a person was selected at random from the population of the United States in 2014, what is the probability that the person was Hispanic/Latino? Black? White? American Indian/Alaskan Native? Asian? Calculate each probability.
- Compare and contrast these probabilities. Are there people of certain races that are more likely to be arrested than other races?
- Include your calculations and results.
Role#2: Wealth Analyst
Are poor people more likely to be arrested? It is difficult to measure if a person is more likely to be arrested at a certain income level because income is not reported at the time of arrest. Instead, because education level is an accurate predictor of income level you decide to use that instead. Your task is to use data to calculate the probability that someone convicted of a death sentence has had less than 12 years of school and the probability that they had 12 or more years of school. Then compare those probabilities to the probability of selecting a person with less than 12 years of school and more than 12 years of school out of the total population of the United States.
- Use the following links to find your data:
- In other words, if a person that was sentenced to death in 2009 and was selected at random, what is the probability that the person has had less than 12 years of school? How about 12 years or more of school? Calculate each probability.
- If a person was selected at random from the population of the United States in 2009, what is the probability that the person did not graduate high school? How about those who have at least graduated from high school? Calculate each probability.
- Compare and contrast these probabilities. Are the people with less than 12 years of school more likely to be given a death sentence? How about the people with at least 12 years?
- Include your calculations and results.
Role#3: Age/Sex Analyst. Two other possible contributing factors are age and gender in regard to whether or not young people are more likely to be arrested. How about males versus females? Your task is to use data to calculate the probability that someone arrested in 2012 is under 18 years old and calculate the probability that the person is male. Then, use census data to calculate the probability of being under 18 years in the U.S. and the probability of being male in the U.S. in 2012.
- Use the following links to find your data:
- In other words, if a person that was arrested in 2012 was selected at random, what is the probability that the person is under 18 years old? How about being male? Calculate each probability.
- If a person was selected at random from the population of the United States in 2012, what is the probability that the person is under 18 years old? How about being male? Calculate each probability.
- Compare and contrast these probabilities: are juveniles more likely to be arrested than adults? Are males more likely to be arrested than females?
- Include your calculations and results.
Clickthe Assignment Files tab to submit your assignment.