Copyright 2007, 2009 by Craig Tyle. All rights reserved.
Baseball 5.0
Introduction. Baseball 5.0 is a simplified dice baseball simulation. It is designed for players who wish to play a simulation game that allows them to rate their own players and play a quick game. It utilizes 2 ten-sided dice and 1 20-sided die.
Baseball 5.0 was inspired by, and draws its name from, Program IV Baseball, a game from the 1970’s. Program IV used 2 six-sided dice to rate batters on their batting average, homeruns and steals, and pitchers on their ERA, control and strikeout frequency.
Baseball 5.0 is a much more sophisticated simulation, for the following reasons:
· The use of percentile dice allows for much more precise ratings
· Batters are rated for their ability to draw a walk
· Pitchers are rated for their tendency to surrender homeruns
· Pitcher control and strikeout ratings are much more precise
· The use of the third die avoids the need for re-rolls in most cases. Thus, most plays are resolved with a single roll.
On the other hand, Baseball 5.0 is not intended to provide a very detailed simulation. For example:
· Fielding ability does not play a role in the basic game. (However, optional features allow catcher’s throwing ability and outfielders’ throwing ability to be reflected. An advanced version of the game – Baseball 5.1 – incorporates range factors and individualized infield errors as well.)
· Batters are not rated for their strikeout propensity. (However, the game is designed such that, as a general matter, batters should for the most part strikeout as they would in real life.)
· There are no park effects.
Game Play
As indicated above, the game requires two ten-sided dice and one 20-sided die. The ten sided dice should be numbered from 0-9 and either be different colors, or one of the dice should be numbered 00-90, thus producing results from 00-99. The 20 sided die should be numbered 1-20.
All three dice are rolled together for each play. The result from the 00-99 roll will vary depending on the batter’s and pitcher’s ratings. Most plays also require referring to the 20-sided die for the final result. This can involve a reference to one of the supplemental charts – the Base Hit Chart, the Pop Out/Line Out Chart, the Groundout Chart or the Fly Out Chart.
Occasionally, you will have to roll once more for the final result.
Bunts and steals are optional, and require a reference to the Bunt Chart or Steal Chart, respectively. There is no hit-and-run play in Baseball 5.0; hit-and-run plays are reflected in the ratings.
00-99 Results
The results from this reading are determined as follows:
00 is an out.
01-40 is either a hit (other than a homerun) or an out, depending on the ratings. For example, let’s say Derek Jeter (hit rating 1-25) is facing Ted Lilly (hit rating +1). You combine the two ratings to get 1-26. If the two ten-sided dice yield a roll of 23, Jeter has a base hit. The 20-sided die will determine which type of hit (single, double or triple), as well as any advancement by baserunners. In a few cases you will need to roll again for certain rarer plays (e.g., triples, singles + errors, batters out trying to stretch).
Now let’s say Jeter was facing Roy Halladay (hit rating -3). The combined rating is 22. In this case, a roll of 23 is an out. (See below for how to determine the type of out.)
Note: When a hit results from play result 01, roll again to see if there is a wild pitch or passed ball on the next pitch by referring to the WP/PB chart.
41 is an infield error in the basic game. The batter is safe at first, and the runners advance one base. (There is also the possibility of a two-base error.)
42-49 is always an out in the basic game. (In Baseball 5.1, results 43-49 become range plays that are impacted by a player’s fielding ability.)
50 is a hit batter.
51-80 is a possible walk. The same approach is used as in determining whether the batter has hit safely in results 01-40 – the batter’s walk rating is adjusted by the pitcher’s rating.
Note: A batter’s walk rating cannot be more than doubled as a result of the pitcher’s rating. For example, if the batter has a walk rating of 51-53 and is facing a pitcher with a control rating of +4, the walk possibilities are 51-56, not 51-57.
If the dice roll is outside the walk range, the result is an out.
If a walk results from play result 51, roll again to see if there is a wild pitch or passed ball on the next pitch by referring to the WP/PB chart.
81-99 is a possible homerun. The mechanism here is different than for hits and walks. First, the batter’s homerun rating indicates if there is a possible homerun. If it’s not a possible homerun, it’s an out. If it is a possible homerun, refer to the pitcher’s HRA rating and the 20-sided die. If the result is within the pitcher’s rating, it’s a homerun. If not, it’s an out.
Note: When the result is a possible homerun (i.e., within the batter’s range), but is an out off the pitcher’s rating, score it as an automatic short fly out, runners hold.
Example: Batter has an 81-83 HR? rating, and pitcher’s HRA rating is 1-10. If you roll an 85 and a 9, the result will be a groundout. (See “Outs” below.)
If the results were 83 and 9, respectively, it’s a homerun.
If the results were 83 and 12, it’s a short fly out.
Outs
Unless the result is a strikeout (see below) or a short fly out as a result of a “failed homerun” (per above), the type of out is determined by the second digit of the 00-99 result, as follows:
If the second digit is 0, refer to the pop out/line out chart.
If the second digit is an even number other than 0, refer to the fly out chart.
If the second digit is an odd number, refer to the groundout chart.
As noted above, in the case of an out that occurs as a result of the pitcher’s HRA rating, treat it as a short fly out, even if the original result was an odd number (i.e., do not treat it as a ground out in this case).
Strikeouts
If the result off the 00-99 is an out and it falls within the pitcher’s strikeout rating, score a strikeout.
Example: If, in the above example, Halladay had a strikeout rating of 1-30, the 23 result would be a strikeout.
Comment: It can be seen that batters with lower hit ratings (poor contact rates) will strike out more frequently, just like in real life. Thus, even without individualized batter strikeout ratings, most batters should strikeout at a rate that mirrors their real-life performance.
Bunting
To bunt, roll the twenty-sided die and refer to the appropriate bunt chart. There are separate charts for ordinary sacrifices, safety squeezes and suicide squeezes. There is no option for bunting for a base hit.
Stealing
To steal, roll two ten-sided dice. The first digit refers to the runner’s jump rating. If it is not within his range, he holds. If it is within his range, refer to the second digit and compare to his success rate to see if he is safe or out.
Note: A reading of “0” on the first digit requires you to refer to the pickoff/balk chart for the result (using the second digit). If the runner attempts to steal, a reading of “0” on the second digit is always an out. A reading of “1” on the second digit is a possible throwing error.
Comment: While batters have different jump ratings, most have success ratings of 1-7. This is designed to replicate actual steals, as a lower success rate would make it unwise to call for steals. Some batters with below-average stolen base percentages can get automatic caught stealing results. This is intended to ensure that overall steal percentages are accurate and help replicate runners who were 1-for-3 in real life.
Intentional walk
The manager of the team in the field can call for an intentional walk at any time.
Infield in
The manager of the team in the field can call his infield in when there is a runner on third. Refer to the Infield In Groundball Chart for groundout results.
Pitcher fatigue
After a starter faces 27 men (three times through the order), increase his hit and walk ratings by 4, and his homerun rating by 5 AFTER the next baserunner (other than an intentional walk). If the starter is pitching a shutout, do not adjust the rating until he has completed 9 innings. After the adjustment is made and he faces five more men, make another adjustment after the next baserunner.
Relievers’ ratings depend on whether they are a short reliever or long reliever. (A short reliever is a pitcher whose IP/G is 1.5 or less.) A long reliever can face 9 batters before he is subject to fatigue. (Make the same adjustment as above after the next baserunner.)
A short reliever can face five men. He is subject to downgrading after the next baserunner OR the start of the next inning. (Example: Rivera pitches the 9th and faces five batters. If he comes out to start the 10th, his grades are adjusted.)
Starters must rest four days between starts. If a starter comes back on three days’ rest, his limit is reduced from 27 to 18. A starter can also come back on two days’ rest with a limit of 9 batters.
Relievers are limited as follows: A reliever who pitches 2 or more innings must rest the next day or he starts the game fatigued. In addition, a reliever who appears in three consecutive days must rest one day or he comes in fatigued.
A reliever who started a game during the regular season can use the starter fatigue rating if he comes into the game early. However, he is then subject to the rest rules for starters.
Ratings
In the basic game, batters are rated for hit frequency, walk frequency, homerun frequency, and stealing. Pitchers are rated for hits allowed, control, homeruns allowed and strikeouts.
Batter hit ratings. Compute the batter’s total plate appearances, less intentional walks and sacrifice bunts. You can use the following formula:
TPA = AB + (BB-IBB) + HB + SF
Divide his hits (minus homeruns) by this number and multiply by 100:
100 x (H – HR)/TPA
Round down to the nearest whole number. So, if the answer above is 21.67, the batter would have a hit rating of 1-21.
Note: For most ratings, you round to the nearest whole number; for the hit rating, however, you should round down. The reason for this is that batters will get some “extra hits” on ground balls when the infield is in.
Batter walk ratings. Divide the batter’s non-intentional walks by his TPA and multiply by 100. Round to the nearest whole number and start at 51 to get his walk range:
100 x (BB – IBB)/TPA
If the result is 4.3, his walk rating would be 51-54.
Batter homerun ratings. Divide the batter’s homeruns by his TPA and multiply by 200. Round to the nearest whole number.
200 x HR/TPA
Give the batter possible homerun results starting at 81.
Example: 200 x HR/TPA results in 3.6. Round this to 4. The batter has HR? results from 81 to 84.
Note: A very few players will have a result of 20 or more. In this case, make an appropriate number of results automatic homeruns and count these results double to get the final result.
Example: 200 x HR/TPA = 20.6. This batter will have automatic homeruns at 81 and 82 (i.e., they will not be affected by the pitcher’s rating). This accounts for 4 out of the 21. Results 83-99 (17 results) are normal HR? results.
Note: As an optional rule for batters who hit very few homeruns (result above is greater than 0 but less than 0.5), you can give them an 81* rating. This means that the batter only homers if the 20-sided die falls within the pitcher’s range AND is an odd number.
Jump rating: Multiply the batter’s stolen bases by 1.5 and divide this by his hits (minus triples and homeruns) plus walks (excluding intentional walks) and HBs:
1.5 x SB/(H – 3B – HR) + (BB – IBB) + HB
Refer to the following chart:
More than .32 1-9
.28 to .32 1-8
.24 to .28 1-7
.20 to .24 1-6
.16 to .20 1-5
.12 to .16 1-4
.08 to .12 1-3
.04 to .08 1-2
Up to .04 1
No steals 0
Note: If result is exactly on a cut-off (e.g., .16), use the lower rating (in that case, 1-4).
Success rating: All batters have ratings of 1-7, except:
If a batter’s stolen base percentage is greater than 80% and he has at least 5 steals, his rating is 1-8
If a batter’s stolen base percentage is greater than 90% and he has at least 10 steals, his rating is 1-9
Automatic caught stealing: If a batter’s stolen base percentage is under 66 2/3% (including batters who had one or more attempts but no stolen bases), give the batter a “C” rating. These batters can get automatic caught stealing results on hit result 13.
Pitcher hit ratings
All pitcher ratings are relative; thus, you must first compute the league average ratings.
First, compute the league average hit rating using the same formula as above. Round to the nearest tenth.
Next, compute the pitcher’s rating. If “Batters Faced” is known, use this as the denominator:
100 x (H- HR)/BF
If Batters Faced is not known, you can use the following estimate:
BF = (IP x 3) + H + BB + HB
Round the pitcher’s result to the nearest tenth and subtract the league average rating:
Pitcher – League
Round this to the nearest whole number.
So, for example, if the league hit rating is 21.6 and the pitcher’s hit rate is 19.0, he will have a hit rating of “-3” (19.0 – 21.6, rounded to the nearest whole number).
Note: Even in present-day baseball with interleague play, the vast majority of games are played in the same league, so the league average is the best benchmark.
If you are playing an interleague game, or cross-era, the benchmark rating should be the average of the two leagues. Thus, pitchers will have different ratings for these games. (As a practical matter, you can ignore this for most interleague games except in years where there is a significant disparity between the two leagues.)