WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION

COMMISSION FOR BASIC SYSTEMS

Severe Weather Forecasting DemonstrationProject (SWFDP) - Southern Africa

Meeting of the Regional Technical

Implementation Team

PRETORIA, SOUTH AFRICA, 24-27 FEBRUARY 2009

FINAL REPORT

CBS/SWFDP-RTIT/Final Report, p. 1

1Opening

The meeting of the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project for the planning of its Regional Subproject of Southern Africa, “SWFDP – Southern Africa”, opened at 9 AM, 24February2009, in Pretoria, hosted by the South African Weather Service. Welcoming remarks were made by Dr Jonas Mphepya, General Manager Operations – SAWS, on behalf of Dr. Linda Makuleni, CEO SAWS and Permanent Representative of South Africa with WMO. Welcoming remarks were also made by Mr Peter Chen, on behalf of WMO.

2Organization of the meeting

The meeting unanimously elected Mr Mnikeli Ndabambi (South Africa), as chair. MrNdabambi had previously chaired the Regional Subproject Management Team of the SWFDP’s first phase in southeastern Africa, and is also a member of CBS Management Group.

The meeting adopted the provisional agenda (Annex 1). The list of participants is contained in Annex 2.

3Introduction to the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

The meeting was briefed on the SWFDP, the role of the CBS Project Steering Group, which provides guidance on the project through two (standing?) documents: the “Overall Project Plan”, and “Guidebook for Planning Regional Subprojects”. The Secretariat described the outcomes of Congress (Cg-XV, 2007), Executive Council (EC-LX, 2008), as well as the Commission for Basic System (CBS-MG 9, CBS-Ext.(06)), relevant to the implementation of SWFDP – Southern Africa project.

4Evaluation of the first SWFDP – Southeast Africa demonstration

The meeting reviewed the final draft report of the first phase of the SWFDP – RA I of south-eastern Africa, with emphasis on the results achieved and shortcomings, against the project’s main goals. The expansion of the project to include all countries of southern Africa, as well as to address the gaps, has been approved and funded by WMO surplus funds as well as by contributions from some Members. A WMO training workshop was conducted in November 2008, to prepare the implementation of the SWFDP – Southern Africa expansion.

5Cascading Forecasting Process: Roles of participatingcentres

Presentations were made by representatives of National Meteorological Centres. In summary:

  • All presently have access and use NWP/EPS, and RSMC Guidance
  • Warnings’ lead-times are generally up to 2 or 3 days
  • Few have started systematic forecast verification (since Dec 2008, following WMO training in November 2008)
  • Most have some liaison with DMCPA; relations with media are generally good to very good
  • Some NMHSs’ MSG satellite receiving stations are not working, or not accessible by forecasters; several have Sumo application running (Nowcasting)
  • All have integrated RSMC Daily Guidance into their forecasting routines

Global products centres (Met Office UK, NCEP, and ECMWF) and regional centres (RSMC La Réunion and RSMC Pretoria) presented updates on their continuing support to the SWFDP – Southern Africa project. In summary:

Met Office:

The Met Office will maintain Moodle e-training web site for SWFDP forum: at (Enrolment Key: SGP_SWFDP_Fx ). The Africa LAM is planned to increase to 12-km resolution, re-windowed to a reduced southern boundary from the present version to complement the UM SA12 (South Africa) running over southern Africa, and to broadcast both over EUMETCast. There are new feature-based TC prediction products, accessible via a new link for RSMC Pretoria Web site – (should coordinate with RSMC La Réunion). Global lightning detection system is developing, including coverage over the Africa. Web page access was demonstrated: ; add link at RSMC Pretoria Web site. Met Office offered EPSgrams from their MOGREPS to the NMHSs (up to 5 locations per country), coordinated with the locations requested from ECMWF. (See also under ECMWF regarding interface for accessing EPSgrams.)

NCEP

NMHSs should consider nominations for NWP/forecasting training at NCEP Africa Desk. Add to RSMC Pretoria Web page a link to NCEP’s global TC alert system (ensemble data), as well as add a link to Africa WRF products.

ECMWF:

The Centre will continue to provide the agreed NWP/EPS products through its “Special” portal, however would like to know which products from the deterministic NWP suiteare not useful or not used. NMHSs are to identify to ECMWF useful products to be retained by end of April 2009 (suggest this action be coordinated by Chair or A/Chair of RTIT). NMHSs reviewed and updated their respective lists of requested EPSgrams (up to 10 locations per country). These EPSgrams will beequally accessible via the “WMO Members” section and the “Special” portal of the ECMWF Web site. ECMWF was asked to add sea-state exceedance charts to be linked to RSMC Web page. The meeting asked ECMWF to consider implementing a more user-friendly interface (e.g. map-based) for accessing EPSgrams by location. As well, ECMWF was asked to consider the password access to the “Special” pages with a pass-through to WMO Members pages, and vice-versa. The participants were reminded that the annual training course for WMO Members on the use of ECMWF products will again take place in October 2009.

Global products centres

All were asked if they could provide verification data for the southern Africa region.

RSMC La Réunion

ALADIN-Réunion will soon increase resolution to 8-kilometres, with predictions to day-3, and its products could be made available to the SWFDP-Southern Africa project. La Réunion will discuss with RSMC Pretoria on how best to improve the LAM coverage over south-western Indian Ocean, for example Mauritius. A new La Réunion Web site for Tropical Cyclone information was demonstrated, and is being finalized. It will soon be implemented for public access, and when live, could be cross-linked to RSMC Pretoria web page, and to WMO SWIC Web page.

RSMC Pretoria

Pretoria continued to operate its RSMC Web site and production of the Daily Guidance Products (short-range in the morning, medium-range in the afternoon; issuing times are acceptable. It is finalizing the implementation of the expanded project to include guidance for all participating countries over the entire Southern Africa region. It is also increasing dedicated attention to the SWFDP, as the RSMC for the region. The RSMC forecasters expressed a wish to learn more about tropical meteorology, either through attending suitable training, or having a tropical specialist forecaster seconded to the RSMC.

6Implementation of SWFDP – Southern Africa

Various key components of the SWFDP – Southern Africa implementation were presented and discussed, and consensus developed for inclusion into the Regional Subproject Implementation Plan. In summary:

RSMC Pretoria Web page and portal:

  • Add pdf version and retain Word version of RSMC Guidance text products
  • Add Comoros link, below SADC link (right panel)
  • Hydroestimator – issue: changing colour scales according to actual range of values per chart making comparisons and assessment of trends difficult (esp. the longer accumulation charts)
  • NCEP – request to maintain 12 UTC products after new 00 UTC is posted, until new 12UTC is posted
  • NCEP – verify all current links on RSMC Web page; add link to WRF (Africa Desk) products
  • UKMO – add new link (TC prediction products)
  • Add link to lightning over Africa:
  • Add link to PWS guidelines pages

Severe weather event criteria (RSMC Guidance product)

The table of severe weather event and associated criteria (thresholds) were established at the training workshop (Pretoria, November 2008). These were further reviewed, finalized at the meeting and included in an annex of the Implementation Plan.

Template for Quarterly Reports

  • Add link on RSMC web page

Severe Weather Events and Criteria

  • NMHSs to provide all in-country warning events and criteria to RSMC Pretoria
  • Add snow (occurrence); add snow chart from UM SA12
  • For ground T-min (risk of killing frost), add T-min charts from UM SA12 and UK Africa LAM
  • For extreme heat (GE 40C) add Tmax charts from UM SA12 and UK Africa LAM
  • Future consideration for guidance on flooding, and departures from Normals

Operational communications and contacts

  • Use Met e-learning “Moodle” platform via restricted membership (UKMO)
  • List of operational contacts was completed, and provided in an annex of the Implementation Plan.

Exchange of official warnings

  • Develop a template (header: country, date/time start, date/time end, event type, free-form warning text) – for inclusion in the Implementation Plan
  • procedures and map display of information in real-time
  • PWS guidance: “Guidelines on Cross-Border Exchange of Warnings exists on the PWS Website (link to be provided for adding to the RSMC Pretoria Web page)

Verification of Warnings

Presentations were made on general aspects of verification (forecasts and warnings) as well as on how to carryout the warning verification part of the project. NMHSs completed a questionnaire during the meeting on the status of forecast verification activities of their respective offices. They agreed to carry out the verification project. A guide was prepared and included in the Implementation Plan. NMHSs were encouraged to nominate their participation at the 4thInternational verification methods workshop, 4 – 10 June 2009, Helsinki, Finland.

User-basedassessment of warning services

A sample questionnaire was developed to obtain information from users of severe weather warnings, and included in the Implementation Plan. Participants agreed to conduct a survey each year, and report the outcomes as part of their April-May-June quarterly project report.

Technical issues and briefings

A technical briefing was provided by Mr Bheki Mkhize (South Africa) on the availability, access, and use of AMDAR data in real-time over the Africa region. The access and functionality of the NOAA/ESRL/GSD Web page ( was demonstrated. The meeting welcomed this information and agreed to speak to their respective managers to support initiatives that would increase numbers of such data for use in daily weather forecasting, especially for monitoring and forecasting of rapidly developing convective thunderstorms.

A short discussion took place on the status of Sumo implementation at NMHSs. The required software was re-distributed by RSMC Pretoria following the training workshop (Pretoria, November 2008), where all southern Africa NMHSs were present (except Angola). NMHSs are encouraged to install and implement Sumo to assist in Nowcasting, and contact the RSMC for assistance if required.

7Implementation of SWFDP – Southern Africa

An interim implementation plan was presented by Mr Eugene Poolman (South Africa), as a basis for developing the full implementation plan itself. The meeting made a detailed review of the Implementation Plan, and adopted the agreed changes. Mr Poolman agreed to finalize the Implementation Plan within a few weeks of the end of the meeting.

The Regional Technical Implementation Team (RTIT) was confirmed with the exception of Democratic Republic of Congo, and Comoros who were absent from the meeting. The meeting agreed that Mr Eugene Poolman (South Africa) be the Chairperson for the RTIT, and that MrPremGoolaup (Mauritius) be the Vice-Chairperson of the RTIT. In addition, the meeting agreed that Mr Sergio Buque (Mozambique) act as the focal point on warning verification aspects of the SWFDP.

8Other business

There was no other business arising from the meeting.

9Closing

The meeting closed at 1:30 PM, 27 February 2009.

CBS/SWFDP-RTIT/Final Report, p. 1

ANNEX I

AGENDA

Venue: BOKAMOSO Boardroom, South African Weather Service (SAWS)

Opening Day

Registration: From 08h30-08h55

Opening Welcome

1.Opening 09h00

1.1Opening Remarks: Mnikeli Ndabambi (Chair): 9h00-09h05

1.2Official Opening: Dr. Jonas Mphepya: General Manager Operations-SAWS on behalf of Dr.Linda Makuleni, PR: 09h15-09h30

1.3Message from WMO: Peter Chen: 09h05-09h15

TEA- 09h30- 09h55

Technical Meeting will commence at 10h00, and continue, 24 – 27 February 2009

2.Organization of the meeting: Chair

3.Introduction to the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

4.Evaluation of the first SWFDP – Southeast Africa demonstration

  1. Cascading Forecasting Process: Roles of participating centres
  • Global: ECMWF, Met Office UK, NCEP USA
  • Regional: RSMC La Réunion, RSMC Pretoria
  • National Meteorological Centres

6.Demonstration framework, feedback and reporting, and verification

  1. Implementation of SWFDP – Southern Africa
  • the Regional Technical Implementation Team
  • development of the Regional Subproject Implementation Plan

8.Other business

9.Closing

CBS/SWFDP-RTIT/Final Report, p. 1

ANNEX II

FINAL LIST OF PARTICIPANTS
WMO SECRETARIAT
7 bis avenue de la Paix
Case postale 2300
1211 GENEVE 2
Switzerland / WWW website

Mrs Haleh KOOTVAL / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(4122) 730 8333
+(4122) 730 8128

Mr Peter CHEN / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(4122) 730 8231
+(4122) 730 8128

PARTICIPANTS
Mr Francisco Osvaldo SEBASTIAO NETO
Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e Geofisica -INAMET
LUANDA
Angola / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(244) 923 302 387/351 951

Mr Sacrasta NCHENGWA
Botswana Meteorological Services
P.O. BOX 10100
GABORONE
Botswana / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(267) 361 2298/2200
+(267) 395 6282 / 395 3617


Mr Laurence WILSON
Meteorological Service of Canada
2121 Transcanada Highway 5th floor
H9P 1J3
Canada / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(514) 485 2638
+(514) 421 2106

Mr Yassine KADRI
11, Cité Météo
50 Bd du Chaudron
97490 SAINTE CLOTILDE LA REUNION
France / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(262) 262 92 11 02
+(262) 262 92 11 47

CBS/SWFDP-RTIT/Final Report, p. 1

Mr Charles Tabane TSEOLE
Lesotho Meteorological Services
OptionsBuilding
P.O. Box 14515
Pioneer Road
MASERU-100
Lesotho / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(266) 22350 732
+(266) 22 350 325


Mr Léon Guy RAZAFINDRAKOTO
Direction Générale de la Météorologie
BP 1254
ANTANANARIVO
Madagascar / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(261) 2022 40823
+(261) 2022 40823 / 40581


Mr Nicholas Denis MWAFULIRWA
Meteorological Services
P.O. Box 2
BLANTYRE
Malawi / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(265) 1 822 014
+(265) 1822 215

Mr Premchand GOOLAUP
Mauritius Meteorological Services
St. Paul Road
VACOAS
Mauritius / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(230) 686 1031
+(230) 686 1033


Mr Sergio BUQUE
Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia
Rua de Mukumbura 164
P.O. Box 256
MAPUTO
Mozambique / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(258) 2149 1150
+(258) 2149 1150/0148

Mrs Olga Mathilde KARUNGA-TJIUEZA
Namibia Met Service
P.O. Box 13224
WINDHOEK
Namibia / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(264) 6254 0327
+(264) 6254 0027

Mr Mnikeli NDABAMBI
South African Weather Service
442 Rigel Avenue South
Erasmusrand
PRETORIA
South Africa / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(2712) 367 6035
+(2712) 367 6042/3

Mr Kevin RAE
South African Weather Service
442 Rigel Avenue South
Erasmusrand
PRETORIA
South Africa / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(2712)
+(2712)
Mr Eugene POOLMAN
South African Weather Service
442 Rigel Avenue South
Erasmusrand
PRETORIA
South Africa / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(2712) 367 6001
+(2712) 367 6042/3

Mr Keith MOIR
Cape Town Weather Office
P.O. Box 21
CAPE TOWNINTERNATIONALAIRPORT
7525 South Africa / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(2721) 934 0450
+(2721)

Mr François ALBERT
P.O Box 1145
VICTORIA
Seychelles / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(248) 384 074 / 517 317
+(248) 384 078

Mr Phephisa Petros SIHLONGONYANE
Swaziland Meteorological Service
P.O. Box 5193
MBABANE
Swaziland / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(268) 404 9468/6274
+(268) 404 1530

Mr Eliakim MATARI
P.O. Box 3056
DAR ES SALAAM
Tanzania / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(255 22) 2460 706/8
+(255 22) 2460 735

Mr Steve PALMER
Met Office
Fitzroy Road
EXETER EX13PB
United Kingdom / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(44 1392) 886 915
+(44 1392) 885 681

Mr David RICHARDSON
ECMWF
ShinfieldPark
READING
RG2 7YB
United Kingdom / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(44 118) 939 9420
+(44118) 986 9450

Mr Wassila THIAW
ClimatePredictionCenter
WWBG Suite 800
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA
5200 Auth Road
CAMP SPRINGS MD
USA / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +1(301) 763 8000 X7566
+1(301) 763 8125

Mr Anderson MULAMBU
Zambia Meteorological Department
P.O. Box 30200
LUSAKA
Zambia / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(260) 211 251 912
+(260) 211 252 728

Mr Tirivanhu MUHWATI
Meteorological Services Department
Box BE 150
Belvedere
HARARE
Zimbabwe / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(263) 4 778 173/4/6
+(263) 4 778 161


Mr Tichaona ZINYEMBA
Meteorological Services Department
Box BE 150
Belvedere
HARARE
Zimbabwe / Tel:
Fax:
Email: / +(263) 4 778 176