DRAFT
Climate Change in the Amazon region
The engagement of the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO)
Summary
The Amazon – immense facts and figures
Everything that is said about the Amazon is immense, large, challenging and often immeasurable. Past and future challenges impose themselves on the present. In order to act in benefit of the region it is essential to know its peculiarities and characteristics.
The Amazon covers 6% of the planet’s surface and occupies 40% of the Latin American and Caribbean territories. Its 7.5 million km2are of continental dimension. Its rivers discharge approximately 20% of the world’s fresh water to the oceans, more than the Missouri-Mississippi, Nile and Yangtze rivers together. Its basin has 25 thousand kilometers of navigable rivers.
With its 6.9 thousand kilometers of extension, the Amazon River is the longest in the world. It has over a thousand tributaries and discharges nearly 220 thousand cubic meters per second. At least 40 thousand plant species have been identified in the Amazon Basin. Of this total, 2 thousand were classified as being used for food, medicine or other purposes.
Cultural diversity is one the region’s main features. The 40 million inhabitants in the Amazon region contain 385 different indigenous and tribal peoples that speak 86 languages and 650 dialects. 71 peoples live in complete isolation.
The Amazon is a natural unit and functions as such, and therefore cannot be conserved and managed in isolation, within a framework of efforts by each of the countries involved. For these countries, it is imperative to capitalize on opportunities for Amazonian cooperation and integration. Therefore, they have elaborated programs and projects for sustainable development under the umbrella of the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO) to pursue and promote socio-economic inclusion of the Amazon populations in their respective national economies, in particular against the backdrop of the current challenges arising from climate changes.
The Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization
In 1978 representatives of Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana,Peru, Suriname and Venezuela signed the Amazon Cooperation Treaty (ACT) to begin a coordination and cooperation process on joint challenges in the Amazon Region. In 1995 the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO) was created to strengthen the implementation of the treaty. ACTO is an intergovernmental organization aimed at the promotion of the harmonious, participatory and sustainable development in the amazon region.
ACTO´s engagement in climate change
ACTO´s actual work is guided through the Amazonian Strategic Cooperation Agenda approved by ministers of Foreign Affairs in 2010. In this agenda climate change appears as an emerging topic, described by the following objective: “Coordinate and harness efforts in the region to counter the impacts of climate change, mainly by protecting the Amazon and its local populations identifying alternatives to strengthen regional cooperation.” Based on this mandate ACTO is currently carrying out several activities both in the human and the environmental sphere that have a close relation with climate change. Its current climate change related work is taking place in three areas of work: water, forests and health.
Water:
ACTO´s overall objective is to design a Strategic Action Programme for the integrated and sustainable management of the water resource in the Amazon river basin, considering variability and climate change. The river basin is impacted by climate change in various ways, reaching from possible changes in stream flow levels and extreme events to additional threats to biodiversity of the various river based ecosystems. Sea level rise already shows clear impacts in the amazon delta, impacting the population. Against this background ACTO works at different levels to increase the adaptive capacity of the region. At the political level it assesses the various forms of international institutions and legislations related to the natural resources of the Amazon River. It supports scientific research to fill essential knowledge gaps related to e.g. environmental threats to the river ecosystems or the hydro-climate vulnerability of the river basin. An finally in cooperation with the member countries ACTO illustrates concrete adaptation measures within pilot projects like e.g. “Sustainable Management of Transboundary Floodplain Forests in the Amazon” and “Adaptation to sea level rise in the Amazon River delta”.
Forest:
ACTO´s objective within its strategic agenda in the forest area of work is achieving “integrated, integral and sustainable forest management and conservation that result in real benefits for the local population”. In order to achieve this objective ACTO contributes to improve governance on matters related to deforestation, land tenure, land use change and sustainable forest management.
One important example of ACTO´s engagement in contributing to the reducing GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions is the Amazonian deforestation monitoring initiative. This initiative works at national and regional levels to monitor deforestation in the Amazon region and builds up both the infrastructure as well as the technical capacities for this monitoring. The initiative improves the information basis for decision makers to formulate appropriate political responses and regulatory frameworks and evaluate the effectiveness of their decisions. Finally, the state of the art of forest monitoring is an important precondition to make use of international forest finance mechanisms like e.g. REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) under the international climate negotiations.
Biodiversity
Currently land use change is the main cause for biodiversity and ecosystem loss in the Amazon region. Although deforestation rates have declined in Amazonia, 2012 still more than 4,500 km2 of forest have been destroyed. Estimated risk of plant species extinction in the Amazon excluding possible climate change impacts already ranges from 5 to 9% by 2050 with a habitat reduction of 12 to 33% by 2030. (IPCC 2013c, p 18). The faster and more severe the rate of climate change the more severe the additional impacts and threats to biodiversity will be. Due to changes of climatic parameters, modifications in phenology, structure of ecological networks, predator-preys interactions etc. will take place and species are forced to migrate. Highly specialized species with small geographic ranges and only low mobility are particularly vulnerable. Thus, the IPCC summarizes that climate change is expected to increase the rates of species extinction.
Health:
Climate change is affecting human health in various ways. It will exacerbate current and future risks to health, e.g. through increased morbidity, mortality, and disabilities, due to e.g. an increase in heat waves, risks of desnutrition or the frequency of extreme events. Furthermore, the emergence of diseases in previously non-endemic regions will augment (like vector bone diseases). Therefore, within ACTO´s work in improving the capacity of health systems to respond to environmental risks and threats, climate change plays a key role. It supports the ACTO Member Countries in assessing the current situation regarding the legal and normative frameworks especially on Environmental Health Surveillance. Furthermore, it enables its member countries in taking political decisions on the reduction and prevention of environmental risks in the health sector – including the adaptation to climate change. This is given by activities like the elaboration of a Guide for “Adaptation to Climate Risk in the Amazon region from the health perspective”. Its objective is to generate a conceptual framework and a methodology that orients decision makers in health policies and planning to respond to the effects of climate change. This activity is part of the action taken by the countries to establish an Environmental Health Surveillance Systems in the Amazon region in cooperation with the Ministries of Health and their health institutes.
Climate Change in the Amazon Region
Climate change impacts and GHG-emissions – IPCC Findings
Climate Change and the amazon region are closely related in two ways. On the one hand, the amazon region stocks huge amounts of carbon. The forests of the Amazon basin are responsible for taking up huge amounts of the Earth’s atmospheric carbon, making them an important buffer against global warming. Changes in carbon stocks due to deforestation or dieback can easily be converted into CO2 emissions. Tropical deforestation at global scale is one of the most important drivers of anthropogenic climate change on the planet (2013, IPCC 5th Assessment Report, WG I).
On the other hand, both past observations and future climate models strongly suggest that climate change has severe impacts on the ecosystems and societies of the amazon region. Temperature increase, change in precipitation patterns, and increase of extreme events in combination with other drivers of change like different forms of overexploitation of natural resources are expected to lead to both severe damages and economic losses as well as biodiversity loss and species extinction in the region (2014, IPCC 5th Assessment Report, WG II).
The following information about climate change in Amazonia mainly derives from the 5th Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2013 / 2014) which is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change.
1.Observations of trends in climate changein the near past
There is evidence in past observations that climate change is already taking place in the amazon region. The scientific soundness of this evidence varies depending on the specific climatic parameters. The trend in temperatureis clear. Temperature increase was near to 0.7-1°C over the last 40 years since the mid-1970’s. With regards to precipitation, no systematic unidirectional long-term trends towards drier or wetter conditions in both the northern and southern Amazon have been identified since the 1920s. Rainfall fluctuations are more characterized by inter-annual scales linked to ENSO or decadal variability. Analyzing a narrower time period, mean rainfall in the Amazon basin for 1964–2003 has decreased, with stronger amplitude after 1982, especially in the Peruvian western Amazonia, consistent with reductions in convection and cloudiness in the same region. (IPCC 2013c, pp 17).
Due to a lack of historical data there is insufficient evidence to identify trends in observed extreme events. This applies e.g. for trends in daytime temperature increase, nighttime temperature extremes, heat waves and warm spells, dryness and drought. Data is available for heavy precipitation, which an increased in many areas of the amazon region and a decrease in a few. (IPCC 2013c, Table 21-7).
The rate of sea level rise, relevant for the Amazon delta, has accelerated over the last 20 years reaching 2-3mm/year.
2.Projections of climate change parameters in the Amazon – key messages from the climate models
Temperature, precipitation, and extremes
Depended on assumptions on future emissions of GHG the temperature in Amazonia is expected to further increase between 0.6 to 2 °C for a very low emission scenario (RCP2.6 scenario) or between 3.6 to 5.2 °C for a very high emission scenario (RCP8.5 scenario) by late-21st century (medium confidence). In the case of precipitation there is a large spread among models (+10 to -25% till the end of the century).
Nevertheless several regional and high resolution global models suggest a consistent pattern of increase of precipitation in western Amazonia, while decreases are projected for central and eastern Amazonia under high emission scenarios. This also is consistent with model results regarding weather extremes that show increases in dry spells and of consecutive dry days in eastern Amazonia, while rainfall extremes are projected to increase in western Amazonia. Furthermore, there is medium confidence that droughts will intensify along the 21st century in some seasons and areas due to reduced precipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration in Amazonia. Finally, with medium confidence, it is very likely that the length, frequency and/or intensity of heat waves will experience a large increase over most of South America.
Mean projections from several latest models are visualized in Figure 1-1., Table 1summarizes projected climatic changes derived from the global and regional models for the Amazon region.
Figure 21. Projected changes in annual average temperature and precipitation. CMIP5 multi-model mean projections of annual average temperature changes (left panel) and average percent change in annual mean precipitation (right panel) for 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 under RCP2.6 and 8.5. (There may be significant change at shorter timescales such as seasons, months, or days.) (IPCC 2013c, pp 98Figure 27-2)
Table 1. Regional projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and climate extremes in different sectors of CA and SA. Various studies used A2 and B2 scenarios from CMIP3 and various RCPs scenarios for CMIP5, and different time slices from 2010 to 2100. (IPCC 2013c, p 86,Table 27-2)
3.Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities in the Amazon region
Amazon River
There is no clear long-term trend/robust change for the Amazon River when comparing a large number of GCMs (see Table 2). The 1974-2004 apparent stability in mean discharge at the main stem of the Amazon in Obidos can be explained by opposing regional features of Andean rivers (e.g. increasing trends during the high-water period in Peruvian and Colombian Amazons and decreasing trend during the low-water period in Peruvian and Bolivian Amazons). In recent years extremely low levels were experienced during the droughts of 2005 and 2010, while record high levels were detected during the 2009 and 2012 floods. Focusing in extreme flows by 2050 no change is found in high flow on the main stem of the Amazon River but there is a systematic reduction in low-flow streamflow. In contrast the northwestern part of the Amazon River shows a consistent increase in high flow and inundated area. On top of such climatic uncertainty, future streamflows and water availability projections are confounded by the potential effects of land use changes. (IPCC 2013c, pp 14-15).
Table 2. Synthesis of projected climate change impacts on hydrologic related variables in the Amazon Basin. (IPCC 2013c, pp 91, alteredTable 27-4)
Tropical glaciers
The tropical glaciers´retreat in the Andes has accelerated in the second half of the 20th century (area loss between 20-50%), especially since the late 1970s in association with increasing temperatures in the same period. This change in combination with changes in snowpack extent magnifies the hydrological seasonality. Runoffs are reduced in dry seasons and increased in wet seasons.
Box 1: Tipping point discussion – Amazon die back scenario
A tipping point is a critical threshold at which the future state of a system can be qualitatively altered by a small change in forcing (Lenton 2011). Various models are projecting a risk of reduced rainfall and higher temperatures and water stress, that may lead to an abrupt and irreversible replacement of Amazon forests by savanna-like vegetation, under a high emission scenario (A2), from 2050-2060 to 2100. A “dieback” of the Amazon rainforest has been predicted by some studies to occur under 3–4°C global warming because of a more persistent El Niño state that leads to drying over much of the Amazon basin. The reduction in precipitation could result in the dieback of up to ~80% of the rainforest causing a conversion of the rain forest to savanna conditions (e.g. Lenton 2011). This could take a few decades (transition timescale of ~50 years), would have low reversibility, large regional impacts including increased fire frequency and biodiversity loss, and large-scale impacts on climate due to GHG emission effects. The possibility of this die-back scenario occurring, however, is still an open issue and the uncertainties are still very high (IPCC 2013c, pp 17).
Coastal systems and low-lying areas
With a further rise of the sea level (global mean up to nearly 1 m in 2100), coastal systems in the Amazon delta are expected to be impacted. Especially low lying areas are highly vulnerable due to an increase of flooding and beach erosion.
Food production and food security
The assessment of future climate scenario implications in food production and food security shows a large range of uncertainties. Nevertheless, an increase of heat and water stress could have severe impacts on food productivity. In a worst case scenario e.g. soybean yields in the Amazon region would be reduced by 44% (Lapola et al. 2011).
Human settlements and infrastructure
Climate change furthermore is expected to have impact on settlements and infrastructure in various ways. Changes in water availability might impact drinking water and sanitation or hydro power plants. An increase of heat island effects, flooding and inundation etc. can have severe impacts on people and economies in the region.
Human Health
Changes in weather and climatic patterns are negatively affecting human health in Latin America in general, including also in the Amazon. Climate change will exacerbate current and future risks to health, given the region’s population growth rates and vulnerabilities in existing health, water, sanitation and waste collection systems, nutrition, pollution and food production in poor regions. Impacts are e.g. increased morbidity, mortality, and disabilities, due to e.g. an increase in heat waves, risks of malnutrition, or the frequency of extreme events. Furthermore, the emergence of diseases in previously non-endemic regions will augment. Vulnerabilities vary with geography, age, gender, race, ethnicity, and socio-economic status, and are rising in large cities. (IPCC 2013c, pp 4). There might be some positive impacts including e.g. lower morbidity rates due to the decrease of cold waves.
Table 3: Potential negative and positive impacts from climate change on health including confidence levels.
IMPACT / CONFIDENCE LEVELNEGATIVE / POSITIVE
Increased injuries, illnesses and deaths from heat waves and more intense fires / ****
Increased risk of malnutrition due to low food production in poor regions / ***
Increased risk of foodborne and waterborne diseases / ****
Increased risk of vector-borne diseases / **
The decline in mortality and morbidity from cold wave in parts of the world where cold levels will decrease. / *
Decreased vectorial capacity in certain areas by increasing the temperature threshold / **
Very high ****; High ***; Middle**; low *
Font: Guide for “Adaptation to Climate Risk in the Amazon region from the health perspective”. Adapted from IPCC 2014