An Analysis of the 2014 Admissions Cycle

AN ANALYSIS OF THE 2014 ADMISSIONS CYCLE

Applicants to UCT

· More than 26 500 new undergraduate applicants sought admission to UCT in 2014. This figure was 6,1% higher than the 2013 new undergraduate applicant total.

· Black South African applicants made up the largest proportion of the applicant pool (39%). White South Africans and international applicants were the next largest groups (18% and 17% of the applicant pool respectively). The number of black SA applicants has more than doubled over the last 10 admissions cycles.

· Female applicants made up 53% of the applicant pool; this proportion has not shifted materially over the last 10 years.

· “A” and “B” aggregate applicants together made up 41% of the applicant pool. At the other end of the NSC achievement spectrum, “D” and “E” aggregate applicants made up 18% of the applicant pool. A total of 10 207 applicants had NSC scores in the “C” to “E” range.

· The matric aggregate profile of the 2014 applicant pool was quite similar to that within the first post-NSC intake (in 2009).

· More than three quarters of the 2014 applicants were not resident in the greater Cape Town area at the time of applying to UCT. The non-Capetonian proportion of the applicant pool has increased steadily over the last 10 years.

· Particularly large proportions of the black and Indian applicants (87% and 89% respectively) were not resident in the greater Cape Town area. It is of interest to note the increasing proportions of non-Capetonians amongst the Indian, coloured and white applicants over the last 10 applicant cycles. The non-Capetonian fraction of black applicants has not changed markedly since 2005.

· The 2012 non-Capetonian component of first choice applicants to all faculties, other than Humanities, was greater than 70%.

· The non-Captonian proportion of applicants to all of the faculties has increased over the last 10 admissions cycles. The greatest increases are apparent in first choice applicants to Commerce (up 11 percentage points) and to Law (up 10 percentage points since 2003).

· Health Sciences, in particular, draws the overwhelming proportion of its first choice applicants (83%) from outside the greater Cape Town area.

· A total of 7921 new undergraduate applicants were made academic offers for 2012. The number is very slightly larger than the 2011 offer total. This was to be expected in view of the almost static nature of new undergraduate enrolment targets.

· The race profile of the 2012 applicants who were made offers (33% white, 29% black, 12% international, 11% coloured and 9% Indian) was very similar to that in 2011. The gender spread across the new undergraduate offer pool has remained steady at 56% female to 44% male over the last 5 admissions cycles.

· The black proportion of the new undergraduate offer pool has increased markedly over the last 10 admissions cycles (from 20% in 2003 to 29% in 2011 and 2012). Over the same time the international and white proportions of the offer pool have dropped by 7 and 5 percentage points respectively.

· 67% (69% in 2011) of the 2012 applicants who received an academic offer had achieved and A or B aggregate NSC or SC. A slightly larger proportion of this year’s group (14% in comparison with 12% in 2011) had achieved a C aggregate SC or NSC, whilst 5% had either D or E aggregate results.

· The marked decrease in the proportion with unknown aggregate scores over the last 10 admissions cycles is consistent with the decrease in the proportion of offers made to international applicants.

· More than half of those receiving an academic offer (57%) had completed their schooling at South African schools outside of the former DET and HoR (CO) groups. As was the case in relation to the whole applicant pool, 18% of the 2012 offer pool had been at schools not classified under the apartheid system (“new” schools in the system).

· Almost three quarters (71%) of all the 2012 new undergraduate admissions were not resident in the greater Cape Town area at the time of applying to UCT. The non-Capetonian proportion of the offer pool increased by 8 percentage points between 2003 and 2012.

· Particularly large proportions of the 2012 black and Indian admissions (90% and 86% respectively) were non-Capetonians. It is of interest to note the marked (14 percentage point) increase in the non-Capetonians proportion of the Indian offer pool between 2003 and 2011/12.

· In absolute number terms, 5 586 of the 7 967 applicants offered academic places in 2012 were not from the greater Cape Town area and would largely have expected to be offered residence accommodation.

· Particularly large proportions of the Health Sciences and Commerce offer pools (79% and 77% respectively) were not living in Cape Town at the time of applying to UCT.

· It is of interest to note that the non-Capetonian fractions of the Science and Law offer pools dropped (by 4 percentage points in each case) between 2011 and 2012.

· Slightly less than three quarters of the 7967 applicants offered academic places in 2012 (73%) were offered their first choice degree programme.

· 23% of the 2012 new undergraduate offer pool were offered Financial Aid, and more than half (53%) were offered residence accommodation.

· The black and coloured proportions of the new undergraduate enrolment closely matched those within the offer pool. There white enrolment proportion was 3 percentage points high than that within the offer pool, due to a relatively higher take-up rate amongst this group. Conversely, the relatively lower take-up rates amongst Indian and international applicants resulted in lower proportions of these two groups in the new undergraduate intake, in comparison with the offer pool.

· Black students made up the largest proportions of the new undergraduate intake into the Faculties of Health Sciences (43%) and Law (40%). Conversely, white students dominated in the new undergraduate intakes into Humanities (42% of the intake), EBE and Science (36% of the intake in each case).

· Although there were slightly more females than males in the new undergraduate intake overall, female students dominated the Law (75%), Health Sciences (71%) and Humanities (69%) intakes. Conversely, males made up 75% of the new undergraduate intake into EBE.

· Between 2003 and 2012, the black proportion of the new undergraduate intake increased by 11 percentage points. During this period, the white and international proportions of the intake dropped markedly, by 11 and 6 percentage points respectively.

· In absolute terms, there were 62% more black new undergraduate entrants in 2012 than in 2003. Conversely, there were 19% fewer white new undergraduate entrants in 2012 than in 2003.

· The gender ratios within successive new undergraduate intakes fluctuated to a lesser degree, but female students made up the larger proportion in all years other than 2006 and 2007.

· The proportion of the new undergraduate intake achieving either an A or B SC or NSC aggregate increased steadily between 2003 and 2010, since when it has fluctuated at around 68% of the total.

· The largest proportion of the 2012 intake (59%) had matriculated at SA schools other than those formerly administered by the DET and House of Representatives (CO schools). The 4 percentage point decrease in the proportion of the 2012 intake who had completed their schooling outside South Africa reflects the decrease in the international intake in this year.

· 62% of the 2012 new undergraduate intake, in comparison with 71% of the 2012 offer pool, were resident outside the greater Cape Town area at the time of applying to UCT. The 9 percentage point differential reflects the relatively higher offer take-up rate amongst Capetonian residents. It is of interest to note that this differential has been reasonably constant over the last 10 admissions cycles.

· In 2012, for the first time, more than half of the white new undergraduate enrolments were non-Capetonians.

· The non-Capetonian proportions of the black and Indian intakes remained markedly higher than the overall average at 85% and 76% respectively.

· More than two thirds of the 2012 new undergraduate intakes into Health Sciences, Commerce, EBE and Law were from outside the greater Cape Town area. The local fraction of the new undergraduate intake into Humanities has increased slightly in recent years, whilst that within the Faculty of Science has fluctuated markedly.

· More than 80% of the 2012 new undergraduate intake had been offered a place on their first choice programme. This proportion is 7 percentage points higher than that amongst the offer pool, confirming the higher take-up rate amongst those applicants with a first choice offer.

· The proportion of the new intake offered Financial Aid (23%) was identical to that amongst the offer pool.

· In comparison with the offer pool, a slightly higher proportion of the intake (55% vs 53%) had been offered UCT residence accommodation, suggesting that the offer take-up rate is slightly higher amongst those applicants offered a residence place.

· In 2012, black applicants made up the largest proportion of the “no shows” – 30%. White applicants made up the second largest group (29%).

· The white fraction of the “no shows” was 4 percentage points lower than that within the offer pool, again reflecting the relatively higher take-up rate within this group. Conversely, the Indian proportion of the “no shows” (12%) was 3 percentage points higher than the Indian fraction of the offer pool (9%) as a result of the relatively lower take-up rate within this group.

· As has been the case over the last three admissions cycles, female applicants made up 59% of the “no shows” in comparison with 56% of all offers, reflecting the relatively lower take-up rate amongst female applicants (in comparison with male applicants). Further analyses of the database shows that the great majority of the female “no shows” (81%) were not resident in the greater Cape Town area, but that more than half of these had been offered a place in their first choice programme (59%); similarly, more than half of these applicants (55%) had been offered residence accommodation. We therefore need to look to the “no show” survey to understand the reasons that these applicants did not register at UCT in 2012.

· The NSC/SC results spread amongst the “no shows” closely matched that amongst the offer pool, suggesting that take-up rates were quite similar within the different performance bands.

· Similarly, the proportions of the “no shows” from schools falling within the former examination authorities quite closely matched those amongst the offer pool as a whole.

· 82% of the “no shows”, in comparison with 71% of the offer pool, were not resident in the greater Cape Town area at the time of applying to UCT. The non-Capetonian fraction of the whole offer pool was 71%; the differential here reflects the relatively higher take-up rate amongst Capetonian admissions (69%, in comparison with 45% of the far larger non-Capetonian group).

· The non-Capetonian fraction of the “no shows” was higher than that within the offer pool in all of the demographic groups (with the exception of Chinese). These differentials were particularly large in relation to white applicants (14 percentage points) and coloured applicants (10 percentage points). These differentials result from the different take-up rates by race and by location, as well as the varying applicant pool sizes by race.

· More than 60% of the “no shows” had been made a first choice academic offer, and a quarter of them were Financial Aid eligible.

· Interestingly, almost half had been offered residence accommodation.

· The take-up rate amongst non-Capetonians who had received both first choice and residence accommodation offers was 62%. The take-up rate amongst non-Capetonians with neither a residence offer nor a first choice academic programme offer was only 13%.

· 17 185 of the 25 106 applicants for the 2012 academic year did not receive an academic offer from UCT. The number of “no offer applicants” has grown markedly over the last several cycles as the total applicant number has grown whilst the number of new undergraduate academic places has remained largely static.

· Black applicants made up 47% of the “no offer” group, and 41% of the whole applicant pool. Conversely white applicants made up 13% of the “no offer” group but 20% of the whole applicant pool. This discrepancy indicates that the proportion of offers amongst white applicants was markedly larger than that amongst black applicants; indeed 23% of black applicants in comparison with 53% of white applicants received academic offers from UCT.

· Only 20% of all international applicants were offered places at UCT: this group made up 19% of the applicant pool but 22% of the “no offer applicants”.

· 2% of the “no offer applicants” had achieved an A aggregate NSC/SC result, and a further 9% had achieved a B aggregate. More than half of the “no offer applicants” had achieved a C aggregate NSC/SC or lower.

· The 68 “no offer” black applicants are of particular concern. Further investigation of these applicants within the ASR report showed that: 25 had not written the NBTs, a further 14 had scored at the “basic” level on at least one NBT test; a further 6 had not submitted any intermediate NSC results; a further 6 had an “incomplete” application status and 4 (applicants to Health Sciences and Commerce) had achieved an NSC maths C or D. The reasons for the remaining 13 black applicants appearing amongst the “no offer” group are not clear from the ASR report.