Population problems and solutions –

Specific examples

  1. Purpose of using these specific examples in this module

This module aims at enabling students:

  1. to identify the causes and characteristics of the major population problems, including overpopulation, under-population and ageing population.
  1. to understand the measures adopted by different countries in dealing with the problems.
  1. Curriculum tailoring for students of different abilities
  1. For the more able students, teachers can consider asking them to conduct a more in-depth study of the population problems in one of the specific examples. Alternatively, they can conduct a comparison study of the population policy of China with that of another country.
  1. For the brightest students, teachers can further extend the study, pending the availability of time and the interest of their students, to examine population movement in China or in a Western European country like Germany.
  1. How to make use of the information provided in this folder?
  1. A brief overview of the world population and data of specific examples have been provided as a general introduction to this topic.
  1. Each specific example includes a description of the population problems faced by specific country and measures adopted to tackle the problem.
  1. Teachers need not cover all the information provided in this folder. Instead it is advisable for them to select appropriate example(s) and refine the materials based on the ability and interest of their students.
  1. Teachers can make use of the materials as:
  2. Background information for students to understand the kinds of population problems and how those problems are being tackled by different countries;
  3. Information for comparing the population policy of China with that of another country;
  4. Information for examining population movement in a Western European country like Germany;
  5. Materials for self-study.

The world population has reached 7.3 billion in 2014. Ever since the Industrial Revolution, the world population has increased rapidly. The world population reached one billion in around 1800. It took only another 130 years to reach the second billion in 1930. It grew faster in later years, reaching the third billion in less than 30 years (1959), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974) and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987). It reached 7.3 billion in October 2015.

Figure 1World Total Population: 1950-2050

Source: US Census Bureau, International Data Base, June 2012 Update.

Population in the world is currently growing at a rate of around 1.14% annually. Annual growth rate has reached its peak in 1963 which was about 2.19%. Recently, the annual growth rate was declining and was projected to decline in the coming years. In 2010, it was estimated that the growth rate will become less than 1% by 2020 and less than 0.5% by 2050.

Figure 2World population growth rate 1950-2010

Table 1The top ten largest countries by population (live) as at 14 October 2015.

Rank / Name of country / No. of population
(in millions) / Percentage of world population
1 / China / 1404 / 19.1
2 / India / 1287 / 17.5
3 / USA / 326 / 4.4
4 / Indonesia / 257 / 3.5
5 / Brazil / 204 / 2.8
6 / Pakistan / 189 / 2.6
7 / Nigeria / 185 / 2.5
8 / Bangladesh / 161 / 2.2
9 / Russia / 142 / 1.9
10 / Japan / 127 / 1.7

Reference:

You can browse the following website to know the current world population.

World meters – real-time world statistics

Table 2Total population (in million) of various countries of the specific examples between 1960 and 2013

Country / Year
1960 / 1965 / 1970 / 1975 / 1980 / 1985 / 1990 / 1995 / 2000 / 2005 / 2010 / 2013
China / 651 / 716 / 820 / 917 / 985 / 1058 / 1148 / 1216 / 1263 / 1298 / 1330 / 1350
Germany / 72.5 / 75.6 / 77.8 / 78.7 / 78.3 / 77.7 / 79.4 / 81.7 / 82.2 / 82.4 / 81.6 / 81.1
India / 445 / 495 / 554 / 619 / 685 / 760 / 838 / 921 / 1006 / 1091 / 1173 / 1221
Japan / 94 / 99 / 104 / 112 / 117 / 121 / 124 / 125 / 127 / 128 / 128 / 127
Nigeria / 42 / 48 / 56 / 64 / 75 / 85 / 97 / 110 / 124 / 142 / 162 / 175

Source: United States Census Bureau, the World Bank

Table 3Crude birth rate (per 1000 population) of countries included in the specific examples between 1960 and 2013

Country / Year
1960 / 1965 / 1970 / 1975 / 1980 / 1985 / 1990 / 1995 / 2000 / 2005 / 2010 / 2013
China / 40 / 38 / 31 / 22 / 18 / 21 / 21 / 17 / 13 / 12 / 12 / 12
Germany / 18 / 16 / 11 / 10 / 11 / 11 / 11 / 9 / 9 / 8 / 8 / 8
India / 41 / 40 / 37 / 36 / 35 / 34 / 31 / 28 / 26 / 23 / 21 / 20
Japan* / 17 / 19 / 19 / 17 / 14 / 12 / 10 / 10 / 10 / 9 / 9 / 8
Nigeria / 49 / 49 / 49 / 49 / 48 / 46 / 45 / 44 / 44 / 42 / 40 / 39

Source: United States Census Bureau, the World Bank;*Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan;

UN data (numbers in bold anditalic)

Table 4Crude death rate (per 1000 population) of countries included in the specific examples between 1960 and 2013

Country / Year
1960 / 1965 / 1970 / 1975 / 1980 / 1985 / 1990 / 1995 / 2000 / 2005 / 2010 / 2013
China / 21 / 11 / 8 / 7 / 6 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 6 / 7 / 7
Germany / 12 / 12 / 12 / 12 / 12 / 12 / 12 / 11 / 10 / 10 / 11 / 11
India / 24 / 21 / 18 / 15 / 12 / 11 / 11 / 10 / 9 / 8 / 8 / 7
Japan* / 8 / 7 / 7 / 6 / 6 / 6 / 7 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 / 9
Nigeria / 21 / 21 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 19 / 19 / 19 / 18 / 16 / 14 / 13

Source:United States Census Bureau, the World Bank;*Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan;

UN data (numbers in bold anditalic)

Table 5Life expectancy at birth of countries included in the specific examples between 1960 and 2013

Country / Year
1960 / 1965 / 1970 / 1975 / 1980 / 1985 / 1990 / 1995 / 2000 / 2005 / 2010 / 2013
China / 44 / 59 / 65 / 66 / 67 / 68 / 68 / 69 / 71 / 74 / 75 / 75
Germany / 70 / 71 / 71 / 72 / 73 / 74 / 75 / 76 / 78 / 79 / 80 / 80
India / 43 / 47 / 51 / 54 / 55 / 57 / 58 / 60 / 62 / 65 / 66 / 67
Japan / 69 / 71 / 73 / 75 / 76 / 78 / 79 / 80 / 81 / 82 / 83 / 84
Nigeria / 43 / 44 / 44 / 44 / 45 / 45 / 45 / 45 / 45 / 49 / 51 / 52

Source: United States Census Bureau, the World Bank; UN data (numbers in bold anditalic)

References:

  1. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan
  1. The World Bank – data


  1. United States Census Bureau - International data base
  1. UN Data
  1. Video on “Population Problems in India”– duration: 9:01”
  1. Aging population in Japan

Japan’s total population in 2014was 127 million. This ranked tenth in the world and made up 1.8% of the world’s total. Japan’s population increased rapidly after the Meiji Restoration in 1868 but has been decreasing sharply from 1960s. Table 6 shows the birth rates, death rates and natural increase rates in Japan from 1950 to 2013. The natural increase rate has been decreasing sharply from 1980 and the country experienced a negative growth rate from 2005. It was because the birth rate was lower than the death rate.Fewer babies were born in these few years. In addition, therewas a strict immigration law which limited the incoming of immigrants. If these conditions do not change, the population projection will expect a negativepopulationgrowth up to 2050. So the population is shrinking in Japan.

Table 6Birth rates, death rates and natural increase rates in Japan

Year / Rates per 1000 population
Live births / Deaths / Natural increase
1950 / 28.1 / 10.9 / 17.2
1955 / 19.4 / 7.8 / 11.6
1960 / 17.2 / 7.6 / 9.6
1965 / 18.6 / 7.1 / 11.4
1970 / 18.8 / 6.9 / 11.8
1975 / 17.1 / 6.3 / 10.8
1980 / 13.6 / 6.2 / 7.3
1985 / 11.9 / 6.3 / 5.6
1990 / 10.0 / 6.7 / 3.3
1995 / 9.6 / 7.4 / 2.1
2000 / 9.5 / 7.7 / 1.8
2005 / 8.4 / 8.6 / -0.2
2010 / 8.5 / 9.5 / -1.0
2013 / 8.2 / 10.1 / -1.9

Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan

Besides, the proportion of elderly was increasing in recent years. Table 7 shows the percentage of population in different age groups in Japan. It can be seen that aged population (65 years and over) constituted 25.9% of the total population in 2014 which was the highest in the world.

Table 7Percentage of population in different age groups in Japan

Age group / Year
1950 / 2014 / 2050 (Projection)
0-14 / 35.4 / 12.8 / 9.7
15-64 / 59.6 / 61.3 / 51.5
65 and over / 4.9 / 25.9 / 38.8

Source: Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan

Thegrowth of agedpopulation in Japan was faster than that of many western European countries or the USA. In 1970, aged population in Japan was only 7.1% and it took 24 years to double to 14.1% in 1994. Comparing with other countries, it took Germany 40 years, the United Kingdom 47 years and Italy 61years for the percentage of the elderly to double from 7 to 14%. The reason why Japan was aging faster than other countries was because the life expectancy of the population in Japan was much longer than that of other countries. Table 8 shows the life expectancy of both male and female in Japan. In 1950, the life expectancy in Japan was 59.57 for males and 62.97 for females. In1970, the figures increased to 69.31 for males and 74.66 for females. On the other hand, for this same period in Germany, the average life expectancy for males and female increased only 3.5 years of age, in France it was 5.9 years of age, in the US it was 2.8years of age and in the UK it was only 2.3 years of age.

Table 8Life expectancy of male and female at birth in Japan from 1950 to 2013

Year / Life expectancy at birth (years)
Males / Females
1950 / 59.57 / 62.97
1955 / 63.60 / 67.75
1960 / 65.32 / 70.19
1965 / 67.74 / 72.92
1970 / 69.31 / 74.66
1975 / 71.73 / 76.89
1980 / 73.35 / 78.76
1985 / 74.78 / 80.48
1990 / 75.92 / 81.90
1995 / 76.38 / 82.85
2000 / 77.72 / 84.60
2005 / 78.56 / 85.52
2010 / 79.55 / 86.30
2013 / 80.21 / 86.61

Source: Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan

After the Second World War, Japan experienced the postwar “economic miracle”. Rapid economic growth raised personal incomes, enabling people to have better livingstandards and diets. Economic prosperity also supported better medical services. Therefore, people could live longer than in the past. However, the birth rates kept on decreasing because people got married at a later age as more women started to work and became economically independent.There was also a powerful and deep-rooted practice of birth control which cannot be changed suddenly. Families also tended to have fewer children as the cost of raising a child increased. Therefore, fewer new-born babies have to support an increasing number of aged people. Many problems associated with aging population has arisen.

  1. Problems associated with agingpopulationin Japan

Increase in aging population and decrease in birth rates implies a decrease in the number of workforce. It has been projected that the national workforce of people from the ages of 15-65 will shrink to half of the total population between 2012 and 2060.So fewer people can be engaged in production.

As Japan has a well-established pension system, an increasing number of the aged would mean more people getting the pensions after their retirement. With a decreasing working population in recent years mentioned in the previous paragraph, the amount of contribution to the pension system is likely to be shrunk, unable to meeting the increasing draw-out by the rising number of elderly people.This will leave a big burden to the society in the future.

An increasing number of elderly people also imply an increasing demand for medical and social services. This increasing demand creates a heavy financial burden on the government.

1Dependency ratio is the ratio between the dependent population, ie. people under the age of 15 and over 64 to the working population. High dependency ratio means that fewer working population has to support the elder population.

References:

  1. Matsutani Akihiko. (2006) Shrinking – Population Economics – Lessons from Japan. International House of Japan: Japan.
  1. Immigration to Japan as a solution to the ageing of the population
  1. Japan: Aging population needs more than short-term solutions
  1. Japan looks to new technology to cater ageing population
  1. Japan’s population problem
  1. Japan’s population suffers biggest fall in history

biggest-fall-in-history.html

  1. Population - Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Statistics Bureau, Director-

General for Policy Planning (Statistical standards) and statistical research and training institute

  1. Working paper series – Population aging: facts, challenges and responses, Program on the global demography of aging
  1. Overpopulation in India

By January 2015, the total population of India was 1.3 billion, an increase of 1.34% per year.India homes 17.5% of the world population but it occupies only 2.4% of the world’s land area. It is estimated that by 2025, India will overtake China as the world’s most populous nation with a population of 1.4 billion.

Before the independence of the country in 1947, India’s population growth was mainly checked by famines and diseases. The death rate was high. So the population growth was not too rapid even though the birth rate was high. However, after its independence, India experienced significant improvement in medical services and the hygienic environment, with the major diseases came under control. Its death rate decreased and reached a low level by the 70s. On the other hand, the birth rate remained high, mainly due to cultural factor. Most of the Indians have a strong desire to have a son in the family. Married couples will continue to have children until they give birth to a son. In addition, many Indian girls got marry at an early age. In 2011, 43% of adolescent girls in India were married before the age of 18. This was because many families wanted to save the money in raising daughters. Moreover, although birth control had been introduced in India as early as in the 1950s, many people, especially those living in the rural areas, didn’t get access to the methods. Therefore, population was growing at a high rate. The following table shows the crude birth and death rate and the natural increase rate of India from 1960 to 2013.

Table 9Crude birth rate, crude death rate and natural increase rate of India between 1960 and2013 *per 1000 population Source: UN data & United States Census Bureau, the World Bank

Year / Crude birth rate* / Crude death rate* / Natural increase rate*
1960 / 41 / 24 / 17
1965 / 40 / 21 / 19
1970 / 37 / 18 / 19
1975 / 36 / 15 / 21
1980 / 35 / 12 / 23
1985 / 34 / 11 / 23
1990 / 31 / 11 / 20
1995 / 28 / 10 / 18
2000 / 26 / 9 / 17
2005 / 23 / 8 / 15
2010 / 21 / 8 / 13
2013 / 20 / 7 / 13

Video on “Population Problems in India” – duration: 9:01”

2 It is a system for the bride’s family to bring money or property to her husband at marriage. In India, if the bride can only afford a small amount of dowry, the whole family will feel ashamed.

References:

  1. Dyson Tim, Cassen Robert and VisariaLeela (Eds.) (2004). Twenty first century India: Population, Economy, Human Development and the Environment. India: Oxford University Press.
  1. Gender Empowerment is Key to India’s Overpopulation Challenge
  1. India Population
  1. India population: Is sterilization the answer?

development-goals?page=0,0

  1. Overpopulation could be people, planet problem
  1. Overpopulation of India
  1. Overpopulation: The main cause of poverty in India?
  1. Short notes on the problem of over population in India
  1. The Wall Street Journal - India Journal: Overpopulation? I’ll buy that

buy-that

  1. World Population Awareness – Population Dynamics of India
  1. Germany– a country experiencing a negative population growth

The population in Germany in 2015 was around 82.5 million. She was the 16th most populous country in the world and was also the largest country in the European Union. However, its birth rate is one of the lowest in the world, staying at 8 per thousand since 2005. It is predicted that her population will continue to decrease in the years to come. Between 2000 and 2013, Germany’s birth rate has dropped by 11% compared to an increase of 4.3% in the UK, 3.6% in France, 12.8% in Spain and 8.9% in Ireland.In addition, in every year since 1970, the death rate of Germany has been greater than her birth rate. This situation will continue as the large birth cohorts in the past will move into old age. The population of Germany, as a result, is dropping. It is predicted that her population will fall by 19% to 66 million by 2060.

Table 10Crude birth rate, crude death rate and natural increase rate of Germany from 1960 - 2013

Year / Crude birth rate* / Crude death rate* / Natural increase rate*
1960 / 18 / 12 / 6
1965 / 16 / 12 / 4
1970 / 11 / 12 / -1
1975 / 10 / 12 / -2
1980 / 11 / 12 / -1
1985 / 11 / 12 / -1
1990 / 11 / 12 / -1
1995 / 9 / 11 / -2
2000 / 9 / 10 / -1
2005 / 8 / 10 / -2
2010 / 8 / 11 / -3
2013 / 8 / 11 / -3

*per 1000 population

Source: UN data & United States Census Bureau, the World Bank

The crude birth rate remained low because of women’s easier access to education. More women worked in the labour market and they had little time to take care of their children. There were not enough facilities provided for working mothers to look after their children, such as day care and after-school programs. In addition, the birth rate is expected to be even lower due to the country’s high unemployment rates and dim employment prospects in recent years.

The government has tried to encourage more baby birth by granting “parents’ allowance” which was about 65% of their salary per month up to 14 months after the birth of the baby. In addition, the government guaranteed every child over the age of one a childcare place. However, these measures are not effective in changing the mind-set of people to have more babies.

References:

  1. Facts about Germany: Immigration and integration

integration.html

  1. Germany’s birthrate is the lowest in Europe – and falling fast
  1. Germany fights population drop
  1. Germany learning to open arms to immigrants
  1. German immigration increases at record speed
  1. Germany: Immigration in Transition
  1. Germany’s population by 2060: Results of the 12th coordinated population projection
  1. Mail Online: German population shrinks as QUARTER of men say ‘no’ to kids

men-say-kids.html

  1. Many immigrants leave Germany within a year

leave-germany-a-905583.html

  1. Opinion: How to boost the German birth rate
  1. Population movement in Germany
  1. World Population Review: Germany Population
  1. Overpopulation problems in Nigeria

The total population of Nigeria was 178.5 million by July 2014, which has increased by 268% during the last 50 years (Figure 3). In 2014, the population of Nigeria represented 2.46% of the world’s total population, ranking 7 in the world’s population. The birth rate remained high with 39 per 1000 in 2012, i.e. every woman gives birth to at least 5.38 children. By looking at Table 11, the natural increase rate stayed high at about 26/1000 people, i.e. the population grew continuously. It was expected to surpass that of US by 2050. By 2100, Nigeria’s population is expected to be 730 million, just slightly lowered than that of India and China.

Figure 3Total population in Nigeria: 1950-2010

Table 11Crude birth rate, crude death rate and natural increase rate of Nigeria between 1960 and 2013

Year / Crude birth rate* / Crude death rate* / Natural increase rate*
1960 / 49 / 21 / 28
1965 / 49 / 21 / 28
1970 / 49 / 20 / 29
1975 / 49 / 20 / 29
1980 / 48 / 20 / 28
1985 / 46 / 19 / 27
1990 / 45 / 19 / 26
1995 / 44 / 19 / 25
2000 / 44 / 18 / 26
2005 / 42 / 16 / 26
2010 / 40 / 14 / 26
2013 / 39 / 13 / 26

*per 1000 population

Source: United States Census Bureau, the World Bank

A large population posed many problems to Nigeria. There is a need for resources to support the people. Much money has to be spent on importing food or providing basic facilities for the people. Therefore, the economic development will be hindered. People, especially those living in big cities, need to live in a crowded environment. Infrastructure is insufficient to support the people. There are not enough job opportunities and unemployment rate is high, nearly 50% for people in urban areas aged 15-24. Poor living conditions together with high unemployment rate create much discontent among the people in Nigeria.

People in Nigeria tended to born more babies mainly because of cultural factor. In African cultures, large families signal prosperity and importance. Besides, polygamy is widespread. So families are usually large in size. Nigeria is a religious country with the majority of her people being Roman Catholics and Muslims, who are opposed to contraception. Fewer than 20% Nigerians practiced contraceptive measures. So birth control is not popular in Nigeria. In addition, with high infant mortality rate, people incline to give more birth to secure their family size. The problem will be worsened if no further action is taken. It is because in 2011, about 28% of the population was female with the age of 12-24years. This proportion is expected to reach about 30% in 2020. Most girls in Nigeria will get married at an early age. In 2008, 23% of the teenage girls were already mothers or likely to be pregnant and half of the women were already married at age 18, while 1 in 5 are married at age 15. This means that more women are at their peak reproductive age and the population will continue to increase.