Gas industry outlook in Iran
Developing and Delivering Affordable Energy in the 21st Century
27th USAEE/IAEE American conference
September 16th-19th, 2007
Houston/Texas USA
Shahla Khaleghi
National Iranian Oil Company
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Iran has been identified as a high priority market for the gas sector. The priority is a result of the high gas reserves, high level of investment in gas sectors to increase gas production from existing fields, to develop new gas fields to meet domestic requirement and gas export commitments during recent years and future. Large reserves of gas ensure that this market represents a long-term business opportunities which guarantee foreign investments.
On the other hand, Iran’s energy policy objectives have been defined mainly on the basis of three major principles of establishing the energy supply security; increasing the utilization of natural gas resources, substitution gas for oil products and promotion of Iran’s status in international gas markets.
The review of the long term gas supply and demand in Iran represents that Iran should find out a suitable way for investment to increase gas production, controlling gas demand in national economy by optimal allocation of gas in different application and also, to optimize gas marketing in international level. Energy supply security in notional economy, reasonable economic, commercial and political relationship with other countries especially neighboring countries and achieving a suitable share of international gas market are the most important NIOC's strategic goals in gas section.
Iran's rich gas production will be grown by an average yearly rate of 8% during a 20-year development plan (2005-2024) and will reach to more than 1800 Million cubic meters per day in 2024, from 410 MMcm/d in 2004.
Generally, there are two especial periods during 20-year development plan with regarding to meet domestic gas demand completely and to do certain gas export projects; including three LNG plants and three gas pipeline projects:
First period: forth and fifth 5-year development plans periods (during 2005-2009 and 2010-2014): these periods named "gas shortage periods". In these periods gas demand will be more than supply (in both warm and cold months). Therefore, conservation of gas consumption and substitution of gas by other liquid fuels (kerosene, gas oil, LPG…) will be inevitable in these periods.
Second period: Sixth and seventh 5-year development plans period (during 2015-2019 and 2020-2024): these periods are named "gas surplus periods". Expected substitution of gas with other liquid fuels will be carried out completely in these periods. In addition, these periods will be good opportunities for Iran to verify ambitious gas export projects.